Crypto Crashes

[Airalee]

All you haters that aren’t doing your research on cryptos just aren’t watching the right crypto videos.

 

 

[Gecko123]

5 hours ago, Adumbration said:

Back in the real world I had a consultancy that focussed upon risk management.  I am therefore immune to the pifle the doom and gloomers are posting here about crypto risk. 

Dude, you really need to snap out of it.

 

I had a 25 year career in insurance and risk management, including working with sophisticated self-insurance products for products liability and workers compensation for Toyota Motors North American operations. I am very familiar with techniques for measuring and managing risk including: using standard deviations, risk avoidance, risk transfer, diversification, hedging, puts and calls, etc., etc. I consider myself to have highly honed risk management skills, and I find it baffling that you think that risk management alone will enable you to assume any risk out there. That's like saying 'No worries about smoking in my fireworks factory - I've got insurance.'

 

Also, before considering which risk management tools to utilize, you have to assess and understand the nature of the underlying risk, which is next to impossible with an asset class which is so difficult to apply valuation metrics to.

 

 

Edited May 16, 2022 by Gecko123

[ThailandRyan]

9 minutes ago, FritsSikkink said:

Think you missed a post where it said 8 people committed suicide because of their losses

You missed the point of Not I or anyone I know. The same can be said for the stock market  but I won't list those Twitter feeds.

Edited May 16, 2022 by ThailandRyan

[Hummin]

19 minutes ago, FritsSikkink said:

Durian

So 100 - 150 rai needed depending on quality?

[1FinickyOne]

9 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

You must detest Cathie Wood then.....

feel sorry for - - Albans Street 8 day wonder

[FritsSikkink]

Just now, Hummin said:

So 100 - 150 rai needed depending on quality?

Nope, 20 rai in the South of Thailand, sell to Chinese.

[1FinickyOne]

9 minutes ago, Gecko123 said:

risk avoidance,

That is a big one.... saved a lot of $$ in my life not betting on things I don't understand... sure, things like crypto... 

[Hummin]

4 minutes ago, FritsSikkink said:

Nope, 20 rai in the South of Thailand, sell to Chinese.

Okay, seems better than crypto then 

[Hummin]

7 minutes ago, FritsSikkink said:

Nope, 20 rai in the South of Thailand, sell to Chinese.

2 ton pr rai is absolutely fantastic

[dj230]

7 hours ago, Neeranam said:

Yesterday, I walked into tesco and bought eggs amongst other things. I paid with my crypto. Com card and got 3% crypto back. My salary is sent to krung thai bank and withdrawn almost immediately to dexes. At the weekend I also paid for 4 dtac bills, got a full tank of petrol and a game of golf, all paid in BTC I bought last Monday, pay day. 

I see you mention this card a lot but with crypto down the past month 24% you’re actually paying an extra 33% to use crypto for your purchases while getting back 3% in “cash back” typically it’s also paid in a crypto/coin, so it’s more like a “crypto/token” back. 
 

You also get 1-4% real cash back with regular credit cards, if you get “points” much like “crypto” the rewards are usually better, like with American express / aeroplan

[lkn]

Even people in r/CryptoCurrency do not understand how crypto is actually useful.

 

[Adumbration]

34 minutes ago, Gecko123 said:

Dude, you really need to snap out of it.

 

I had a 25 year career in insurance and risk management, including working with sophisticated self-insurance products for products liability and workers compensation for Toyota Motors North American operations. I am very familiar with techniques for measuring and managing risk including: using standard deviations, risk avoidance, risk transfer, diversification, hedging, puts and calls, etc., etc. I consider myself to have highly honed risk management skills, and I find it baffling that you think that risk management alone will enable you to assume any risk out there. That's like saying 'No worries about smoking in my fireworks factory - I've got insurance.'

 

Also, before considering which risk management tools to utilize, you have to assess and understand the nature of the underlying risk, which is next to impossible with an asset class which is so difficult to apply valuation metrics to.

 

 

Why are you so upset?  Calm down son.  It is not your networth at risk.  

[Adumbration]

2 hours ago, lkn said:

Also remember that crypto exchanges are unregulated and have been caught doing wash trading, front running, trading against customers, having no backing for the funds on the exchange, etc.

 

It’s a casino where the house has been known to cheat. DYOR or risk management makes little sense in that context.

I don't see the utility or your rationale for making these doom and gloom posts.  Why would you even bother...it is certainly not altruism.

 

Perhaps your posts are just purely ego driven so in the event of someones failure you can high five yourself while typing up your "I told you so" posts.

 

Or do you honestly feel you are more capable of managing my money than I am.  Hey you should be in politics!

Edited May 16, 2022 by Adumbration

[Adumbration]

3 hours ago, FritsSikkink said:

Are you saying their land has no value?

No.  You said that land will always "hold value".  The price of land can and does go down.

And nowdays the bulk of property owners (especially in Australia) have massive mortgages.  

Australia has not yet had its 2008 moment.  But is on its way with a bullet.

 

And yes the land that someones "owns" with an upside down mortgage has absolutely zero value.

 

Moreover in Australia banks have full recourse, so the landholder can find them paying debt off on a property they no longer own.  That is far less than zero.

[dj230]

2 hours ago, lkn said:

Worth mentioning though for a Coinbase card backed by crypto, you pay 2-3% in liquidation fee if you have no fiat, and you pay another 2-3% in foreign exchange fees, so using this card in Thailand would probably cost you 5-6%, i.e. definitely not worth it.

 

The Crypto Dot Com card is better with fees, but you have to buy their CRO token and “stake it”, I think the minium amount was 400 EUR worth of CRO tokens, and the CRO token has fallen 80% over the last 6 months, so while you may get nice cashbacks (in CRO tokens), if you got this card 6 months ago, you basically lost 320 EUR… I know that people here of course always bought EGLD, CRO, BTC, etc. 2+ years ago, so of course they lost no money, but with no fundamentals / intrinsic value, and it already gone down 80%, there is no reason it can’t happen again — also, CDC have reduced their cashback percentages from 1st of July or so, because despite all the money they got from selling overvalued CRO tokens, it seems their business model is still not sustainable…

Oh god it’s even worse than I thought, they make you buy their token and stake it? ???? It’s a visa too so it had to have some catch since visa typically charges under 3% for their net transaction fees (card issuer+bank)

 

Why would anyone get this card, visa infinite constantly has promotions with 4-6% real cash back (up to a $ max then 1-4% cash back+ annual fee waived) . 
 

American Express typically has better rewards but in points since they typically charge a higher transaction fee, but they have annual fees. They seem to work better in Thailand though without any issues visa/Mastercards have with the old 3DS technology that thai banks use 

 

Edited May 16, 2022 by dj230

[Gecko123]

42 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

Why are you so upset?  Calm down son.  It is not your networth at risk.  

Believe it or not, I worry what a sudden unexpected blow to financial health might have on you. I also think "hatred of the banking system" as a primary incentive to get into crypto is not well-advised. Contrary to the propaganda you read on these threads, most of the people sounding words of caution are not doing so out of jealousy, inherent negativity, or rigid resistance to new technologies. They're doing it out of genuine skepticism.

 

I have to say, though, that I see the speculation in crypto markets as an extreme example of the froth in asset and financial markets generated by artificially low interest rates and quantitative easing. I see the crashing of asset values which will accompany the normalization of interest rates as very healthy and necessary for the economic health of economies, and frankly, welcome it.

 

Why? Because the rising cost of living, asset inflation in real estate and the stock market, the negative real savings rates, and the income and wealth inequalities caused by monetary policy have done enormous damage to many people, including myself.

 

Edited May 16, 2022 by Gecko123

[Hummin]

Land, gold, silver have a solid value as safety assets that will always have a value no matter what happens, and I'm talking about farmland, not speculative real estate that really do not have any value except for those who have the money to pay marked price. 

 

Some places, the value of your house drop 20% at once last needle is put in to it, while other places it triple it's price because of the location 

 

Have to admire the real estate marked in Hua Hi, and it's high fixed prices with no relation to the reality of the demand, but in future expectations.

 

The same goes for Bitcoin and crypto marked, it's price is based on future speculated value, and not real value.

[fdsa]

On 5/15/2022 at 10:21 AM, BangkokHank said:

There's a difference between being able to know the precise value of gold and silver, and knowing if they have value at all. People have recognized the worth of gold and silver for thousands of years. They ARE money. So let me ask you a question: Between gold and silver, and Bitcoin, which one do you think has the greater probability of going to zero?

It looks like you are implying that Bitcoin does not have any value at all.

People thought that the Earth is flat for thousands of years (and some still do lol), it doesn't mean that they were not wrong. Same with gold and silver - if people used it as money for thousands of years it doesn't mean that there are no better alternatives. And the better alternatives are invented already, and they are here with us since around 2009.

In case of global nuclear war all those three things' value will go to zero, otherwise - neither of them.

[fdsa]

On 5/15/2022 at 11:02 AM, Walker88 said:

Even a single btc transaction---supposedly the cutting edge of modern finance---uses more energy than a typical US home uses in 28 days.

I think that you mean "mining a single bitcoin block", and a single bitcoin block could consist of many thousands of transactions, so each of the transaction uses much less energy than a home in 28 days, more likely a home uses in 5 minutes.

 

On 5/15/2022 at 11:02 AM, Walker88 said:

 As has been noted many times, btc mining uses more energy than the combined energy used by the companies Amazon, Facebook, Google, Apple and Netflix

Yes, Bitcoin sucks hard, and that's why we have Proof-of-Stake coins.

 

[Neeranam]

2 hours ago, dj230 said:

I see you mention this card a lot but with crypto down the past month 24% you’re actually paying an extra 33% to use crypto for your purchases while getting back 3% in “cash back” typically it’s also paid in a crypto/coin, so it’s more like a “crypto/token” back. 

no, you don't understand

 

Last Dec  the price was 80c, now it is 30c. It was 3c when I got it, the price is going up. Sure, it is down from Dec, but it will be up again, it all more than evens itself out. 

 

 

[fdsa]

9 hours ago, Neeranam said:

Yesterday, I walked into tesco and bought eggs amongst other things. I paid with my crypto. Com card and got 3% crypto back. My salary is sent to krung thai bank and withdrawn almost immediately to dexes. At the weekend I also paid for 4 dtac bills, got a full tank of petrol and a game of golf, all paid in BTC I bought last Monday, pay day. 

Please stop promoting these crápto.com cards. You've paid with dollars, not bitcoins.

[Neeranam]

1 hour ago, dj230 said:

Why would anyone get this card, visa infinite constantly has promotions with 4-6% real cash back (up to a $ max then 1-4% cash back+ annual fee waived) . 

Crypto.com don't charge anything for using ATMs in any country. 

 

I use this card for almost everything. 

[ThailandRyan]

Just now, fdsa said:

Please stop promoting these crápto.com cards. You've paid with dollars, not bitcoins.

No, he paid using bitcoins and that amount was converted and paid to the vendor in THB.  He was debited BTC from his Cards account.  Time to get it right

[fdsa]

23 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

No, he paid using bitcoins and that amount was converted and paid to the vendor in THB.  He was debited BTC from his Cards account.  Time to get it right

OK, he paid with THB then, not BTC.

 

Paying in BTC means sending BTC from your wallet to seller's wallet, without any middlemen such as crápto.com or middle-currency such as THB.

[ThailandRyan]

5 minutes ago, fdsa said:

OK, he paid with THB then, not BTC.

 

Paying in BTC means sending BTC from your wallet to seller's wallet, without any middlemen such as crápto.com or middle-currency such as THB.

You'll never get the concept.

[Walker88]

Bitcoin is something akin to the Betamax in terms of its crypto status. It's proof-of-work transaction system is way too energy intensive and old technology.

 

Slowly the market will come to accept this, and btc will approach $0. It probably won't even find a niche in money laundering, terrorism or kiddie porn, as other cryptos that use proof-of-stake might stay around for transactional use, so criminals will adopt these for their illegal activities.

[lkn]

36 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

No, he paid using bitcoins

He was charged in THB and the merchant received THB, and it went over the traditional VISA payment rails.

 

He brought up “paid with crypto” to imply adoption, therefore this matters. He is still charged in fiat and using “legacy” payment rail system, because actually, this is more efficient.

[lkn]

49 minutes ago, fdsa said:

I think that you mean "mining a single bitcoin block", and a single bitcoin block could consist of many thousands of transactions

Typically less than 2,000. Though for the energy usage, this article estimates that Marathon Digital Holdings and RIOT Blockchain use $21,000 and $31,000 per bitcoin mined. These are public (blockchain mining) companies, so their finances are public, and these numbers are from Q1 2022.

 

Each block generates 6.25 bitcoins, let’s just be generous and say it holds 2,500 transactions, so that is $50-$75 per transaction, that is the actual cost without adding any profit to RIOT or MARA — and that assumes 2,500 transactions, looking at the average over the last 30 days, it was only 1,800.

 

There really is no doubt: This is far too expensive to “bank the unbanked” (ignoring here the on/off ramp issues that “unbanked” people will face).

 

59 minutes ago, fdsa said:

Yes, Bitcoin sucks hard, and that's why we have Proof-of-Stake coins.

Which has its own set of problems, and is why Etherium keeps postponing switching to PoS.

[Misty]

3 hours ago, GrandPapillon said:

I suggest Crypto gurus should read a few books on market pricing models, learn what is a unit root and a random walk, what is a mean reversion trend etc... etc...

And learn about money and banking systems...what works, and what doesn't

[ThailandRyan]

21 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

Bitcoin is something akin to the Betamax in terms of its crypto status. It's proof-of-work transaction system is way too energy intensive and old technology.

 

Slowly the market will come to accept this, and btc will approach $0. It probably won't even find a niche in money laundering, terrorism or kiddie porn, as other cryptos that use proof-of-stake might stay around for transactional use, so criminals will adopt these for their illegal activities.

Stick to your retirement day job and try and not pontificate anymore.