Good news from airports as arrivals help offset damage from inflation and supply chain blocks

[webfact]

Deputy Managing Director of Kasikorn Research Centre Nattaporn Triratanasiriku (left) along with her fellow Deputy Managing Director Kewalin Wangphichanasuk (right) gave a presentation on Tuesday in which they reviewed the current state of Thailand’s economy which according to a revised GDP projection from the unit, the research arm of Kasikorn Bank, is now due to grow by 2.9% this year with more robust foreign tourist arrivals and resilient exports leading the way even while the kingdom is suffering from supply chain disruption, inflation and, in the short term, a depreciating baht against the US dollar.

 

by James Morris and Son Nguyen

 

Kasikorn Research Centre predicts that there is enough capital in the financial system to meet short-term debt repayments, imports for 3 months and demand for local currency even as the baht is projected to depreciate past ฿36 to the US dollar in the coming months, a 15 year low while the Thai currency has held its own or even gained against other currencies such as the Pound Sterling and Euro.

 

The impact of rising foreign tourist numbers which look set to rise to well over 9 million arrivals this year is helping to offset damage and loss of confidence in the domestic economy from rising prices and disruptions to Thailand’s manufacturing sector which saw a surprising decline in May according to figures just released. On Tuesday, Kasikorn Research Centre, the research arm of Kasikorn Bank, raised the country’s GDP growth projection from 2.5% to 2.9%, all on good news from Thailand’s increasingly busy airports.

 

A Deputy Managing Director of Kasikorn Research Centre, the research arm of Kasikorn Bank, Ms Nattaporn Triratanasirikul disclosed that the firm believes that growth prospects for Thailand this year have improved.

 

Full story: https://www.thaiexaminer.com/thai-news-foreigners/2022/06/29/tourist-arrivals-surge-offsets-other-economy-ills/

 

 

-- © Copyright Thai Examiner 2022-06-30

 

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[RichardColeman]

Sorry, but I think 2.9% is a bit pitiful when starting from such a low base - and TEN million more tourists !

[Dialemco]

Obviously tourism will increase owing cancellation of entry conditions but more could be done such as extending visa exemption to 60 days and making it  easier to get short term visas. Regarding devaluation of Baht this in actual fact has occured against all major currencies and not a bad thing as will stimulate tourism and exports  inflationary pressures will continue owing high cost of oil.

[klauskunkel]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

On Tuesday, Kasikorn Research Centre, the research arm of Kasikorn Bank, raised the country’s GDP growth projection from 2.5% to 2.9%, all on good news from Thailand’s increasingly busy airports.

Similarly, another 1.5% growth prediction is being attributed to the increasing efforts of Pattaya's lady boys in securing Indian gold necklaces... It's all good!

[blazes]

All well, until inflation catches up with tourists all over the world and airfares become unaffordable.

 

If I have to choose between Thailand (and all its remaining obstacles regarding visas) and Mexico, which has practically nothing obstructing the way of tourists for six whole months, which country am I going to visit when the rain and snow come along?

[Isaan sailor]

OK, I’ll wait patiently for the Baht to depreciate to 36 on the USD.  But I won’t hold my breath…

[Fairynuff]

I think all 9 million were at Icon Siam the other day.

[jacko45k]

1 hour ago, Isaan sailor said:

OK, I’ll wait patiently for the Baht to depreciate to 36 on the USD.  But I won’t hold my breath…

You don't think well over 35 is good enough, or as good as it might get? I think it likely to roll back a little as tourism gets going again here. 

[superal]

1 hour ago, Isaan sailor said:

OK, I’ll wait patiently for the Baht to depreciate to 36 on the USD.  But I won’t hold my breath…

Huh ? today's rate at 08 00 hrs was 35.31 . Is that not good enough ?  The UK £ is looking woeful and hardly attractive for British tourists . 

[kwak250]

2 hours ago, blazes said:

 

If I have to choose between Thailand (and all its remaining obstacles regarding visas) and Mexico, which has practically nothing obstructing the way of tourists for six whole months, which country am I going to visit when the rain and snow come along?

Well it won't be Mexico 

Edited June 30, 2022 by kwak250

[blazes]

38 minutes ago, kwak250 said:

Well it won't be Mexico 

er, why not?

[Bangkok Barry]

3 hours ago, Dialemco said:

Obviously tourism will increase owing cancellation of entry conditions but more could be done such as extending visa exemption to 60 days

How many people do you know that have vacation time extending beyond 30 days? I would guess that the vast majority of folk come to Thailand for a couple of weeks at most.

Edited June 30, 2022 by Bangkok Barry

[Bangkok Barry]

3 hours ago, Dialemco said:

Regarding devaluation of Baht this in actual fact has occured against all major currencies

In actual fact it has not. From the article:

6 hours ago, webfact said:

the Thai currency has held its own or even gained against other currencies such as the Pound Sterling and Euro.

On a personal note, I now get over 1000 baht less when I transfer money from the UK than I did in February.

[IamNoone88]

GDP negative of -6.2% in 2020 with a growth from that decline in 2021 of 1.6% and a forecast now of 2.5% - still puts the economy well behind 2019 by 2.1% and this does not take into consideration that the country should have had growth under a normal functioning economy during 2020 and 2021 (which widens forecast vs actual). Increase revenue has nothing to do with offsetting national inflation which is outstripping growth by a long way. Bottom line, the economy is still behind 2019 levels, the Gov't borrowing and inflation is a major issue. Public debt has risen to 62% of GDP .... however, compare to the UK at 95.7% or US at 128.9% of GDP is "relatively" good. Dark days, nothing to celebrate yet.

[Molly Malone]

3 hours ago, Dialemco said:

Obviously tourism will increase owing cancellation of entry conditions but more could be done such as extending visa exemption to 60 days and making it  easier to get short term visas. Regarding devaluation of Baht this in actual fact has occured against all major currencies and not a bad thing as will stimulate tourism and exports  inflationary pressures will continue owing high cost of oil.

All true, above. But took a long long long time for the Gov genius's to wake up! Thailand is a paradise of wonderful people, locations, weather, SMILES, etc. The 90 day reports could well go into the rubbish bin as well! 

3 minutes ago, IamNoone88 said:

GDP negative of -6.2% in 2020 with a growth from that decline in 2021 of 1.6% and a forecast now of 2.5% - still puts the economy well behind 2019 by 2.1% and this does not take into consideration that the country should have had growth under a normal functioning economy during 2020 and 2021 (which widens forecast vs actual). Increase revenue has nothing to do with offsetting national inflation which is outstripping growth by a long way. Bottom line, the economy is still behind 2019 levels, the Gov't borrowing and inflation is a major issue. Public debt has risen to 62% of GDP .... however, compare to the UK at 95.7% or US at 128.9% of GDP is "relatively" good. Dark days, nothing to celebrate yet.

 

[shackleton]

I think everyone from top government officials to down the line  know that Thailand depends 

On the Tourist dollar more than is being let on ????

Everytime I read about the Thai economy more is said about the tourists

Business wise than any other industry  ????

Thailand needs the Tourist 

 

[AhFarangJa]

9 hours ago, webfact said:

Deputy Managing Director of Kasikorn Research Centre Nattaporn Triratanasiriku (left) along with her fellow Deputy Managing Director Kewalin Wangphichanasuk 

How many Deputy Managing Directors can you have in one place?

[bradiston]

47 minutes ago, shackleton said:

I think everyone from top government officials to down the line  know that Thailand depends 

On the Tourist dollar more than is being let on ????

Everytime I read about the Thai economy more is said about the tourists

Business wise than any other industry  ????

Thailand needs the Tourist 

 

The most visited country on earth is France. Approaching 100m pa. Yet the 2019 revenue from same represents only 2.6% of GDP. Thailand is far too reliant on tourism. 40m represents about 13% of GDP. Tourists will shop ultra competitively. Short holidays, limited budgets. Value for money is surely the name of the game. 24 flying hours minimum, 24 hours recovery, from Europe, of your precious 2 weeks is a high price to pay. And let's face it. Hasn't everybody been here before? Yesterday's destination for Europeans IMHO.

 

https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/international_tourism_revenue_to_GDP/

Edited June 30, 2022 by bradiston

[MrJ2U]

5 hours ago, blazes said:

All well, until inflation catches up with tourists all over the world and airfares become unaffordable.

 

If I have to choose between Thailand (and all its remaining obstacles regarding visas) and Mexico, which has practically nothing obstructing the way of tourists for six whole months, which country am I going to visit when the rain and snow come along?

I know it's easier to enter Mexico.  But comparing the two countries is like Apples and Oranges.  

 

I'd take traveling to Thailand other than Mexico at 4 times the price.

 

I find Mexico even more corrupt and the women there usually bordering on obese.

 

It's nice if its a quick visit to a nice all inclusive resort.

 

Thats just my opinion visiting both countries though. 

 

 

[Dexxter]

3 hours ago, blazes said:

3 hours ago, kwak250 said:

Well it won't be Mexico 

er, why not?

Too far from Australia

[bradiston]

6 minutes ago, MrJ2U said:

I know it's easier to enter Mexico.  But comparing the two countries is like Apples and Oranges.  

 

I'd take traveling to Thailand other than Mexico at 4 times the price.

 

I find Mexico even more corrupt and the women there usually bordering on obese.

 

It's nice if its a quick visit to a nice all inclusive resort.

 

Thats just my opinion visiting both countries though. 

 

 

I think it depends a bit on your departure point. Sure, it's about equidistant and same flying time Heathrow to Mexico City/BKK. 12 hours minimum. For possibly 30% of US citizens, it's a short hop. And, can just drive there!

[jwdub12]

4 hours ago, jacko45k said:

You don't think well over 35 is good enough, or as good as it might get? I think it likely to roll back a little as tourism gets going again here. 

With the way the federal reserve is aggressively planning on hiking up interest rates in the short term It wouldn't surprise me to see it reach 37 at some point this year. 

Edited June 30, 2022 by jwdub12

[bert bloggs]

Well Pattaya is still short of tourists.

[MrJ2U]

20 minutes ago, bradiston said:

I think it depends a bit on your departure point. Sure, it's about equidistant and same flying time Heathrow to Mexico City/BKK. 12 hours minimum. For possibly 30% of US citizens, it's a short hop. And, can just drive there!

Cool.

 

One time I flew to Cancun and rented a jeep and drove to Belize.

 

Beautiful trip.

 

That was 30 years ago though. Border crossings were fairly simple back then. 

[hotchilli]

4 hours ago, Bangkok Barry said:

How many people do you know that have vacation time extending beyond 30 days? I would guess that the vast majority of folk come to Thailand for a couple of weeks at most.

Just long enough to lose a necklace or two.

[Tony125]

5 hours ago, blazes said:

er, why not?

 

Try reading this

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/mexico-travel-advisory.html

 

Not safe for women travlers

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/mexico-travel-advisory.html

[superal]

5 hours ago, IamNoone88 said:

GDP negative of -6.2% in 2020 with a growth from that decline in 2021 of 1.6% and a forecast now of 2.5% - still puts the economy well behind 2019 by 2.1% and this does not take into consideration that the country should have had growth under a normal functioning economy during 2020 and 2021 (which widens forecast vs actual). Increase revenue has nothing to do with offsetting national inflation which is outstripping growth by a long way. Bottom line, the economy is still behind 2019 levels, the Gov't borrowing and inflation is a major issue. Public debt has risen to 62% of GDP .... however, compare to the UK at 95.7% or US at 128.9% of GDP is "relatively" good. Dark days, nothing to celebrate yet.

You could be laying your figures ish on most countries because of the covid pandemic . One part you did not mention was the concerning  national household debt that is forecast to hit 95% of gdp this year . Any rise in interest rates will have a devastating effect on many families who must be living week to week .

[blazes]

1 hour ago, Tony125 said:

 

Try reading this

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/mexico-travel-advisory.html

 

Not safe for women travlers

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/mexico-travel-advisory.html

See also:

 

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/international-travel/International-Travel-Country-Information-Pages/Thailand.html

 

and virtually every other country in the world.

 

One thing your govt does not warn you about re LoS is:

the extreme danger of fatality on the roads, especially (but not limited to)

at night.

[arithai12]

9 hours ago, blazes said:

All well, until inflation catches up with tourists all over the world and airfares become unaffordable.

 

If I have to choose between Thailand (and all its remaining obstacles regarding visas) and Mexico, which has practically nothing obstructing the way of tourists for six whole months, which country am I going to visit when the rain and snow come along?

Thailand, any day.

[arithai12]

4 hours ago, bradiston said:

The most visited country on earth is France. Approaching 100m pa. Yet the 2019 revenue from same represents only 2.6% of GDP.

Put it like that, doesn't mean anything. Most Europeans can "visit France" as a short weekend trip driving their car or on a low-cost airline, they pay one night hotel and couple of meals, that's it. So, the low GDP contribution is easily explained. Comparing with Thailand is impossible - well, except maybe the Malaysians hopping to S. Thailand for a wild casino-massage weekend.