Thailand turns to Russia as foreign tourist revenue is projected to be only 21% of 2019 record figures

[coolcarer]

1 hour ago, AnotherFarang8 said:

If you read the news carefully, you will know that staff critical to Aeroflot’s operations will be exempted. Aeroflot flights to Thailand will go as scheduled. Building walls in your head to believe only what is pleasant to believe is setting yourself up for surprises in the future.

Link to that claim on Aeroflot? The subpoenas sent to all airlines makes no mention of any exemptions in the Russian source reports

[coolcarer]

13 minutes ago, owl sees all said:

Don't think the conflict is going against the Ruskies. I don't hold too much belief in CNN or BBC to tell the truth.

 

The biggest problem I can see is if the Russians come in their millions, they will bring Roubles with them. Won't that leave Russia itself short of reddies?

Why after 7 months and retreating from more land than they took in 4 months are they doing a mobilization? 

[Rimmer]

AN argumentitive baiting post has been removed

[rudi49jr]

28 minutes ago, owl sees all said:

Don't think the conflict is going against the Ruskies. I don't hold too much belief in CNN or BBC to tell the truth.

While you may not hold too much belief in CNN or BBC to tell the truth, here in the real world the Russians themselves are admitting that the war isn’t going all that dandy for them. Why do you think Putin is yanking 1.2 million men from their civilian lives and into the army? And sending most of them straight to the front line, without any military training?

[owl sees all]

1 hour ago, rudi49jr said:

While you may not hold too much belief in CNN or BBC to tell the truth, here in the real world the Russians themselves are admitting that the war isn’t going all that dandy for them. Why do you think Putin is yanking 1.2 million men from their civilian lives and into the army? And sending most of them straight to the front line, without any military training?

Perhaps I look at things differently to many. And maybe yourself Rudi49jr.

 

At the moment there is a referendum going on in The Donbass regions. I take it, that the voting will result in an overwhelming wish to align with Russia. If that is the case, then  - and I don't know when - Russia will pronounce the areas that voted to be with Russia; Russian. Then; any attack on those areas will - say the Russians - be an attack on Russia. Then war will break out. At the moment it is deemed a 'Special Operation' or, as some in the MSM say, a conflict. In anticipation of all this coming to pass, I believe Russia is getting prepared for what lay ahead.

 

I have no crystal ball, and I take no sides. Although I did have a Russian g/f many moons ago. I simply try to fathom - given the historical truths, and facts as they are here and now - what is likely to happen. What I see is there for anyone to see. However; we might see the same things, but the light illuminates differently for some.

 

IMO, Thailand is right to snuggle up to the Russians and Chinese. Their long-term economic future may depend on making the correct decision as of now.

[Bkk Brian]

11 minutes ago, owl sees all said:

Perhaps I look at things differently to many. And maybe yourself Rudi49jr.

 

At the moment there is a referendum going on in The Donbass regions. I take it, that the voting will result in an overwhelming wish to align with Russia. If that is the case, then  - and I don't know when - Russia will pronounce the areas that voted to be with Russia; Russian. Then; any attack on those areas will - say the Russians - be an attack on Russia. Then war will break out. At the moment it is deemed a 'Special Operation' or, as some in the MSM say, a conflict. In anticipation of all this coming to pass, I believe Russia is getting prepared for what lay ahead.

 

I have no crystal ball, and I take no sides. Although I did have a Russian g/f many moons ago. I simply try to fathom - given the historical truths, and facts as they are here and now - what is likely to happen. What I see is there for anyone to see. However; we might see the same things, but the light illuminates differently for some.

 

IMO, Thailand is right to snuggle up to the Russians and Chinese. Their long-term economic future may depend on making the correct decision as of now.

Let me correct you. There is a sham referendum taking place in occupied regions NOT just the Donbass region. The outcome of that vote which is in many places is being undertaken with armed guards and officials knocking door to door is obvious but should not be confused with legitimate or trust worthy.

 

Your  "I take no sides" remark does not equate.

[marcusb]

On 9/22/2022 at 7:11 PM, MrJ2U said:

Hopefully they won't need Visa, Master Card, or American Express for their hotel deposit.

true. Which made me wonder if currency exchange places are more cautious about accepting Russian currency after the recent ups and downs. 

[owl sees all]

34 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Let me correct you. There is a sham referendum taking place in occupied regions NOT just the Donbass region. The outcome of that vote which is in many places is being undertaken with armed guards and officials knocking door to door is obvious but should not be confused with legitimate or trust worthy.

 

Your  "I take no sides" remark does not equate.

Thanks for the correction.

 

As I say Bkk Brian, people see things differently. Where do you get the info' from about aspects of the referendum; western MSM maybe!?

 

My forecast is that the voting regions will side themselves with Russia. The US - who along with the UK - is the driver of NATO initiatives, will face a dilemma. What to do? If Ukraine starts firing missiles and rockets into the new Russian areas; this could lead to WW111.

 

Thailand bosses are probably as aware of the facts as anyone. Hence their stance.

 

It has nothing to do with me taking sides - or you for that matter - it is looking at what is really happening, and trying to make sense of it all.

[rudi49jr]

1 hour ago, owl sees all said:

an overwhelming wish to align with Russia.

Jeez, why do you think that is? Most people who would want to stay in Ukraine have either fled or been forcibly removed.
And as I understand it, people are being ‘coerced’ (to put it mildly), or they are held somewhere where they can not vote:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-marches-farther-into-liberated-lands-separatist-calls-urgent-referendum-2022-09-19/

 

You also said you take no side. Don’t make me laugh….

[owl sees all]

2 minutes ago, rudi49jr said:

Jeez, why do you think that is? Most people who would want to stay in Ukraine have either fled or been forcibly removed.
And as I understand it, people are being ‘coerced’ (to put it mildly), or they are held somewhere where they can not vote:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-marches-farther-into-liberated-lands-separatist-calls-urgent-referendum-2022-09-19/

 

You also said you take no side. Don’t make me laugh….

I have no dog in the 'special operation' battle, and I have no axe to grind with you Rudi49jr.

 

I'm simply saying what I think will happen IMO. Whether Reuters have it right or not. It is what it is.

 

As I say; not seeing the truth could lead us into WW111. We might be heading that way no matter what. Perhaps Gen' Patton was right about having to fight the Russians eventually.

[tomyami]

45 minutes ago, owl sees all said:

 

My forecast is that the voting regions will side themselves with Russia. The US - who along with the UK - is the driver of NATO initiatives, will face a dilemma. What to do? If Ukraine starts firing missiles and rockets into the new Russian areas; this could lead to WW111.

Ukraine is fighting survival Europe is in a proxy war to stop a land grab with more to come of countries who face the same Russian brutality clearly evidenced, to the defending civilians/soldiers, any weakness under nuclear threat and it game over.

Russian tourism quantity or demographic coming will depend on the war they started, which is impossible to predict so revenue forecasts are meaningless.

The world cup in Qatar may also be a factor in farang market

Target US market, high dollar

[rudi49jr]

23 minutes ago, owl sees all said:

As I say; not seeing the truth could lead us into WW111.

Which truth is that? Your truth, or the generally excepted one?

[owl sees all]

1 minute ago, rudi49jr said:

Which truth is that? Your truth, or the generally excepted one?

Oh do stop making this a personal issue Rudi49jr.

 

If you don't agree with what is actually happening, you could always say what you think is happening.

 

I am saying that there is a referendum taking place; the people will vote for Russia; and at one stage - when they are ready - Russia will say that those areas are now Russian. Then we have a whole different ball-game. If you think I'm wrong then say why, or give an alternative view.

 

And as I say Thailand have read the situation well; IMO.

[Bkk Brian]

1 hour ago, owl sees all said:

Thanks for the correction.

 

As I say Bkk Brian, people see things differently. Where do you get the info' from about aspects of the referendum; western MSM maybe!?

 

Probably the better question is where you get your information from as you were clearly wrong. As for me, if you notice in my earlier posts I get my info from a range of different sources including Russian media. Here is some cctv its always more convenient to vote when two soldiers with machine guns are knocking at your apartment. Zaporizhzhia region

1 hour ago, owl sees all said:

My forecast is that the voting regions will side themselves with Russia. The US - who along with the UK - is the driver of NATO initiatives, will face a dilemma. What to do? If Ukraine starts firing missiles and rockets into the new Russian areas; this could lead to WW111.

Yes you already said that was your forecast in a previous post, we all know its already a done deal. NATO's dilemma is created by a sham referendum and Putin's invasion. Ukraine is the country fighting and they will carry on doing so to get back their rightful land. Even China and India did not side with Russia at the UN a couple of days ago and have voiced concerns.

1 hour ago, owl sees all said:

Thailand bosses are probably as aware of the facts as anyone. Hence their stance.

 

It has nothing to do with me taking sides - or you for that matter - it is looking at what is really happening, and trying to make sense of it all.

If that's anything like the facts you are parroting then Thailand also has its head in the sand.

[2 is 1]

11 minutes ago, owl sees all said:

I am saying that there is a referendum taking place; the people will vote for Russia; and at one stage - when they are ready - Russia will say that those areas are now Russian. Then we have a whole different ball-game. If you think I'm wrong then say why, or give an alternative view.

Ukraine never going to agree that those area belong to Russia. Ukraine going to still attack those areas and they should! West still support Ukraine and should give long distance weapons also. If Russia use nuke they will loose all support! And Russia is goin to be even worst place than North Korea. Even Putin know that , also Putin can't fire nuke alone!

Everybody should choose  side now and show some solidaruty to Ukraine! Me personaly dont understand if somebody can support attacking side in this kind situation! Normal people in Russia are good people but they have little or nothing to say how things happen or what happen next.

[Will B Good]

With mass conscription on the horizon, following the failed 'mobilization', even TAT might  be right as to how many Russians 'visit' Thailand in the near future.

[Jingthing]

46 minutes ago, owl sees all said:

Oh do stop making this a personal issue Rudi49jr.

 

If you don't agree with what is actually happening, you could always say what you think is happening.

 

I am saying that there is a referendum taking place; the people will vote for Russia; and at one stage - when they are ready - Russia will say that those areas are now Russian. Then we have a whole different ball-game. If you think I'm wrong then say why, or give an alternative view.

 

And as I say Thailand have read the situation well; IMO.

Those referendums have ZERO legitimacy. You know that, right? 

[owl sees all]

11 minutes ago, 2 is 1 said:

Ukraine never going to agree that those area belong to Russia. Ukraine going to still attack those areas and they should! West still support Ukraine and should give long distance weapons also. If Russia use nuke they will loose all support! And Russia is goin to be even worst place than North Korea. Even Putin know that , also Putin can't fire nuke alone!

Good post! Now we are getting a debate instead of point scoring..

 

If - as I say - the referendum regions vote to go with Russia, and Russia announce that the areas are now Russian; what will be the outcome? You say that IYO, Ukraine will never accept the situation, and will still attack these areas. I'll go with that; but what's next? IMO, we will have a serious war on our hands.

 

What then will NATO do? Russia is quite capable of wiping Ukraine off the map. Will the US allow this to happen? Sending weapons will not be enough. NATO, might need to put boots on the ground. And then how will Russia respond? An all out war between NATO - witch in effect is the US - and Russia? Is this the start of WW111?

 

Then there is China to consider. Not so good relations with the US at the present. Countries need to do some serious thinking. Thailand has obviously set out its stall as it feels will best benefit it.

 

 

[papa al]

On 9/21/2022 at 2:26 AM, webfact said:

unprovoked invasion of Ukraine

There was plenty provocation.

[Bkk Brian]

5 minutes ago, owl sees all said:

Good post! Now we are getting a debate instead of point scoring..

 

If - as I say - the referendum regions vote to go with Russia, and Russia announce that the areas are now Russian; what will be the outcome? You say that IYO, Ukraine will never accept the situation, and will still attack these areas. I'll go with that; but what's next? IMO, we will have a serious war on our hands.

 

What then will NATO do? Russia is quite capable of wiping Ukraine off the map. Will the US allow this to happen? Sending weapons will not be enough. NATO, might need to put boots on the ground. And then how will Russia respond? An all out war between NATO - witch in effect is the US - and Russia? Is this the start of WW111?

 

Then there is China to consider. Not so good relations with the US at the present. Countries need to do some serious thinking. Thailand has obviously set out its stall as it feels will best benefit it.

 

 

You do know there's a topic for this right, this is not the one to discuss referendums and consequences

 

[papa al]

1 hour ago, rudi49jr said:

excepted

means left out

[Jingthing]

5 minutes ago, owl sees all said:

Good post! Now we are getting a debate instead of point scoring..

 

If - as I say - the referendum regions vote to go with Russia, and Russia announce that the areas are now Russian; what will be the outcome? You say that IYO, Ukraine will never accept the situation, and will still attack these areas. I'll go with that; but what's next? IMO, we will have a serious war on our hands.

 

What then will NATO do? Russia is quite capable of wiping Ukraine off the map. Will the US allow this to happen? Sending weapons will not be enough. NATO, might need to put boots on the ground. And then how will Russia respond? An all out war between NATO - witch in effect is the US - and Russia? Is this the start of WW111?

 

Then there is China to consider. Not so good relations with the US at the present. Countries need to do some serious thinking. Thailand has obviously set out its stall as it feels will best benefit it.

 

 

It's a given that Ukraine and the west won't recognize those areas as Russia.

It's a given that Ukraine won't treat them as Russia.
It's possible that the west will chicken out and pressure Ukraine to accept a dirty deal where those areas are accepted as Russia by cutting off their weapons.

Then Putin could be given a face saving victory. 

Timing is critical. 

[Scott]

Off-topic post reported and removed.  

 

[owl sees all]

10 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

It's a given that Ukraine and the west won't recognize those areas as Russia.

It's a given that Ukraine won't treat them as Russia.
It's possible that the west will chicken out and pressure Ukraine to accept a dirty deal where those areas are accepted as Russia by cutting off their weapons.

Then Putin could be given a face saving victory. 

Timing is critical. 

I'll go with all those points as possibles.

 

There is also the possibility of the European solidarity fracturing. Making a forced settlement even more likely. And a return of Russian gas?

 

I'm of the opinion that Russia will push towards Odesa before making a formal statement about  the Donbass regions.

 

There is also the western powers having to backtrack, if what you say holds water; which it does IMO. The world is on a pivot.

[coolcarer]

7 minutes ago, owl sees all said:

I'll go with all those points as possibles.

 

There is also the possibility of the European solidarity fracturing. Making a forced settlement even more likely. And a return of Russian gas?

 

I'm of the opinion that Russia will push towards Odesa before making a formal statement about  the Donbass regions.

 

There is also the western powers having to backtrack, if what you say holds water; which it does IMO. The world is on a pivot.

Straight out of Putin’s handbook, his wishes entirely. Not gonna happen

[rudi49jr]

47 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

It's a given that Ukraine and the west won't recognize those areas as Russia.

It's a given that Ukraine won't treat them as Russia.
It's possible that the west will chicken out and pressure Ukraine to accept a dirty deal where those areas are accepted as Russia by cutting off their weapons.

Then Putin could be given a face saving victory. 

Timing is critical. 

It will be like Chamberlain all over again, after his return from Munich in 1938, saying he had brought peace with honor, and “I believe it is peace for our time”.

The only question is: peace for how long? Because Putin and his cronies have made it clear they’re not going to stop with Ukraine, or parts of Ukraine. Give those guys an inch, and they will take a mile. Putin can never be trusted again, any peace deal he makes won’t be worth the paper it’s written on. You can not negotiate with a madman, history has proven that time and time again.

[Jingthing]

30 minutes ago, rudi49jr said:

It will be like Chamberlain all over again, after his return from Munich in 1938, saying he had brought peace with honor, and “I believe it is peace for our time”.

The only question is: peace for how long? Because Putin and his cronies have made it clear they’re not going to stop with Ukraine, or parts of Ukraine. Give those guys an inch, and they will take a mile. Putin can never be trusted again, any peace deal he makes won’t be worth the paper it’s written on. You can not negotiate with a madman, history has proven that time and time again.

I agree with that mostly but Putin has an expiration date.

[Thunglom]

Apparently ALL men between 15 and 50 will be forbidden from leaving Russia from next Wednesday - 31st September

[Thunglom]

so far Putin has been getting his own way. He manipulated the UK out of the EU, he can blackmail the west with fuel supplies, he got away with Crimea - however with conscription, he has mobilised his opposition like never before - there are demonstrations all over Russia at the moment and mass exodus on the borders. 

Putin will try to clamp down but his span is limited and in the end Russia doesn't want to be an international pariah...

[MrJ2U]

5 hours ago, marcusb said:

true. Which made me wonder if currency exchange places are more cautious about accepting Russian currency after the recent ups and downs. 

Interesting.

 

I wonder if they would take a chance that it could just collapse.  You'd need a suitcase of rubles to stay long with a family in Phuket.

 

I honestly don't think there's that many with all the travel sanctions.