If the worse happens in the war, what happens in Thailand?

[soi3eddie]

1 hour ago, KhunBENQ said:

There is speculation that the Russians could come through with a tactical ("small") nuke for "demo" purposes and the west would not strike back.

Good point and my thoughts too. How could the west strike back without escalating to Thermonuclear War and major destruction? I'd rather be in Thailand than London. Can they wait 2 weeks please?

 

[Sparktrader]

3 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Don't tell me what I think.

But on that subject how soon would it take for the environmental stuff to be noticed in Thailand?

Hours, days, weeks  etc.?

Would the banks close and how soon?

The US has thousands of home bunkers 50 years old.

 

Intelligent people don't think like this.

 

Go eat a nice curry.

[soi3eddie]

3 minutes ago, gearbox said:

I would say within 15 minutes you won't be able to post any trolling post as the root DNS servers will be down across the world.

555 There's plenty of duplication and redundancy. No escape.

 

 

[FritsSikkink]

1 hour ago, Jingthing said:

Well you went there.

Yes the Russians if they do would start small.

But the west would definitely respond strongly  even without nukes.

That would be the critical decision time for Putin that could start the end.

What war do you mean: Syria, Mali, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libia, Maghreb, Djibouti, Somalia, Yemen, Ukraine?

[kuma]

6 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Don't tell me what I think.

But on that subject how soon would it take for the environmental stuff to be noticed in Thailand?

Hours, days, weeks  etc.?

Would the banks close and how soon?

https://www.cram.com/essay/Environmental-Effects-Of-The-First-Atomic-Bomb/F3MVDP9GRE45

 

Lots available on the two instances when such an event actually happened, open your wallet and fill your boots and do some reading, then come back and fill us all in - order now while the banks are still open...

[Jingthing]

1 minute ago, FritsSikkink said:

What war do you mean: Syria, Mali, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libia, Maghreb, Djibouti, Somalia, Yemen, Ukraine?

You know.

[gearbox]

3 minutes ago, soi3eddie said:

Good point and my thoughts too. How could the west strike back without escalating to Global Thermonuclear War and total destruction? I'd rather be in Thailand than London. Can they wait 2 weeks please?

 

This is not going to save you, you need really deep pockets...

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/sep/04/super-rich-prepper-bunkers-apocalypse-survival-richest-rushkoff

 

Although the uber rich are also not safe, the main issue being the reliability of the staff.  If it is only me and you, you being uber rich and I being uber poor staff,  single shot can change the roles...

[kuma]

2 minutes ago, FritsSikkink said:

What war do you mean: Syria, Mali, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libia, Maghreb, Djibouti, Somalia, Yemen, Ukraine?

Vietnam, Korea, all of Central America, much of South America (clandestine, low intensity), and on n on

[Hummin]

11 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Don't tell me what I think.

But on that subject how soon would it take for the environmental stuff to be noticed in Thailand?

Hours, days, weeks  etc.?

Would the banks close and how soon?

To many scenarios to count in! Nothing to worry about before it actually happens. If it becomes ragnarok, I'm going to save those who is willing to fight for survival and end my time on this planet. Worst scenario. As long we do not get affected with s long cold dark winter, long distance  radiation pollution will not affect us who already past prime time to much. 

 

It basically comes down to enough supply of food to survive and keep family safe.

[FritsSikkink]

4 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

You know.

I know that the western world goes ape<deleted> about Ukraine (which is indeed a terrible thing) but does nothing against all the other wars. 

[Jingthing]

14 minutes ago, gearbox said:

I would say within 15 minutes you won't be able to post any trolling post as the root DNS servers will be down across the world.

As far as the net being down, Thailand wouldn't be able to switch to a Thailand only system?

I'll ignore your comment about troll posts.

 

[Jingthing]

5 minutes ago, Hummin said:

To many scenarios to count in! Nothing to worry about before it actually happens. If it becomes ragnarok, I'm going to save those who is willing to fight for survival and end my time on this planet. Worst scenario. As long we do not get affected with s long cold dark winter, long distance  radiation pollution will not affect us who already past prime time to much. 

 

It basically comes down to enough supply of food to survive and keep family safe.

I'm not suggesting that anyone should worry.

It's obviously out of our control whether this happens or not unless we're certain officials in Russia and the west.

Some people I don't think many in Thailand are peppers etc.

 

[gearbox]

1 minute ago, Jingthing said:

As far as the net being down, Thailand wouldn't be able to.switch to a Thailand only system?

I'll ignore your comment about troll posts.

 

Do you think even for one second that the Thai Internet infrastructure is designed to sustain massive nuclear war? Not to mention that many of the sites are hosted outside Thailand, including probably this site.

Most DNS servers will stop functioning properly if they can't reach the root DNS servers...me thinks you are totally out of depth here. The whole thing may be reconfigured with the right people at the right time, but that may take days and weeks, that's in case they are willing to turn up at all.

[Mr Derek]

The worst won't happen. Before then, the west will surely decide "to hell with it - let the Russian majority in the Donbas rule themselves - what are we fighting for?".

The west surely has that much sense... er... don't they...? 

[Jingthing]

1 minute ago, gearbox said:

Do you think even for one second that the Thai Internet infrastructure is designed to sustain massive nuclear war? Not to mention that many of the sites are hosted outside Thailand, including probably this site.

Most DNS servers will stop functioning properly if they can't reach the root DNS servers...me thinks you are totally out of depth here. The whole thing may be reconfigured with the right people at the right time, but that may take days and weeks, that's in case they are willing to turn up at all.

Just asking questions mate.

Not claiming technical knowledge.

 

[Jingthing]

4 minutes ago, Mr Derek said:

The worst won't happen. Before then, the west will surely decide "to hell with it - let the Russian majority in the Donbas rule themselves - what are we fighting for?".

The west surely has that much sense... er... don't they...? 

The premise of this topic  is IF the worse happens.

That is the starting point.

NOT a place for political theories as above.

[gearbox]

2 minutes ago, Mr Derek said:

The worst won't happen. Before then, the west will surely decide "to hell with it - let the Russian majority in the Donbas rule themselves - what are we fighting for?".

The west surely has that much sense... er... don't they...? 

Well if you brainwash the sheeple everyday with "nuclear nuclear nuclear", in the end they take it as given that nuclear war is quite possible, even winnable.

 

The Russia - Ukraine conflict is just a warm up,  Russia is not really a competitor, they can't produce even a good vacuum cleaner. The target is China, and if the competition can't be won by economics means, the only thing left is war.

[soi3eddie]

17 minutes ago, gearbox said:

Do you think even for one second that the Thai Internet infrastructure is designed to sustain massive nuclear war? Not to mention that many of the sites are hosted outside Thailand, including probably this site.

Most DNS servers will stop functioning properly if they can't reach the root DNS servers...me thinks you are totally out of depth here. The whole thing may be reconfigured with the right people at the right time, but that may take days and weeks, that's in case they are willing to turn up at all.

This site uses Cloudflare to distribute load, speed up pages and prevent DDOS attacks. Generally OK. I, and many here, would prefer not to rely on Thai internet "geeks" regarding internet access given their track record on delivering Thai govermental institution projects such as TM30 and 90 day reports. Online immigration appointment (Bangkok) booking has worked OK for me ,though not for others. 

 

[gearbox]

6 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Just asking questions mate.

Not claiming technical knowledge.

 

I've participated in preparing IT disaster recovery plans for corporations, and can pretty much assure you that things like "global nuclear war" are not considered. The most critical component in these plans are the people,  probably the smart cookies assumed in case of disaster like this pretty much nobody would turn up to perform their duties.

[Hummin]

15 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

I'm not suggesting that anyone should worry.

It's obviously out of our control whether this happens or not unless we're certain officials in Russia and the west.

Some people I don't think many in Thailand are peppers etc.

 

We try to become more independent first because we enjoy it, but I have to admit there is more serious reasons behind also, and COVID was a nice reminder of how fragile we are, and therefor started building a small farm right away when I realized it could be a long term lock down. The Ukraine war and the potential asian conflicts do not make me less determined on buying more land.

[Jingthing]

8 minutes ago, Hummin said:

We try to become more independent first because we enjoy it, but I have to admit there is more serious reasons behind also, and COVID was a nice reminder of how fragile we are, and therefor started building a small farm right away when I realized it could be a long term lock down. The Ukraine war and the potential asian conflicts do not make me less determined on buying more land.

Good for you.

In my case I'd be ready to call it a day in case of Armageddon. 

The stock market crash is bad enough!

[Dan O]

2 hours ago, 1FinickyOne said:

Dystopia has many avenues... not just nuclear

 

climate change makes insurance cos go bankrupt or raise premiums so high people cannot afford them...

 

global warming brings disease. 

 

people lose trust in govts and democratic systems fail... anarchy grows...  

 

historically, here is the only solution I have heard: 

 

We took a little bacon and we took a little beans
And we caught the bloody British in the town of New Orleans

We fired our guns and the British kept a-com'in
There wasn't nigh as many as there was a while ago
We fired once more and they began to runnin'
On down the Mississippi to the Gulf of Mexico

 

 

What if they don't have beans to give you cos the brits took them all? Will you take your guns and go home never to return again?

[Hummin]

5 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Good for you.

In my case I'd be ready to call it a day in case of Armageddon. 

The stock market crash is bad enough!

I guess there will be many who think the same, but we know change of mind can happen when they have to. 

 

But a potential long cold dark winter as a result of nuclear war or vulcano ragnarok will be it for me. At least I think because of the hunger that will follow.

[gearbox]

19 minutes ago, soi3eddie said:

This site uses Cloudflare to distribute load, speed up pages and prevent DDOS attacks. Generally OK. I, and many here, would prefer not to rely on Thai internet "geeks" regarding internet access given their track record on delivering Thai govermental institution projects such as TM30 and 90 day reports. Online immigration appointment (Bangkok) booking has woked OK for me ,though not for others. 

 

The Internet resilience is very complex topic but it boils down mostly to 2 core protocols - DNS and BGP.  Don't want to go to technicalities but aseannow.com is resolved by the authoritative servers for the .com domain, and you can rightfully guess Thailand doesn't host the authoritative servers for .com..so Cloudflare can't help with this.

 

 

[Dan O]

I seriously doubt it would happen. If putin was that stupid he may try a  tactical nuke in a remote area rendering it off limits for quite a while. I don't see the US responding in the same manner as there are enough high tech options available to cripple putin without escalating to a nuclear war as that would be a last choice and not end well for anyone. I think most all countries, except a couple middle eastern, NK and China would step back if at all possible while those mentioned may weigh their chances and roll the dice depending on who's involved and if they felt they could pull it off. 

 

As to impact the radiation would spread worldwide eventually and the damage would be proportional to the level of nukes deployed.. crop disruption, animal contamination, water contamination, weather impacts would all be on the table. Govt tensions and conflict could also arise again proportional to the level of nuclear usage and certainly the responses

[nattaya09]

Maybe the Oligarchs value their opulent lifestyles or some of the highest level military insiders see a political future for themselves in a post-Putin world. Neither would be practical in a smoldering, radioactive Russian wasteland. Perhaps they can choreograph an inside job

[rickudon]

My thoughts.

 

If Putin goes nuclear in Ukraine, and NATO does nothing new, it will just encourage him to try again, Baltic states, Finland ..... when do you say enough is enough. Hitler and the 30s again.

 

First it would be best to try a conventional military response - it has been suggested destroying the entire black sea fleet, or all Russian assets in Ukraine. Putin might realise he cannot win, and back down. Or he might go all in ...... 

 

If the war goes nuclear, Have to assume a lot of weapons used - but i think not all, not even half,

 

Nuclear winter will affect the northern hemisphere - and the majority of the population of Russia, Siberia, North America and Europe will be dead in 6 months - incineration, radiation, starvation and cold. But some will survive as long as not all the nukes are used.

 

It will take some days to weeks for fallout and nuclear winter to get to Thailand, and effects will be somewhat less, Possibly months for Australia and New Zealand to get any. 

 

Internet probably gone in minutes. Financial systems maybe even faster. Electricity grids if not destroyed will slowly degrade - power cuts and shortages will evolve. Logistic supply chains will be disrupted, in Cities many things will run out in a few days. Law and order will suffer breakdowns, but will be patchy - total chaos one place, limited in others.

 

Small towns and villages probably best places to be, survival there could be quite possible. 

 

What would i do? Invest in solar power to get at least some electricity. Stock up with one month of food (or more). Buy lots of seeds and gardening tools. Weapons. Build community networks - many people have some useful skills, even if just knowledge.

 

What we do not know, is how bad it will be - impossible to predict.

 

[nauseus]

2 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Don't tell me what I think.

But on that subject how soon would it take for the environmental stuff to be noticed in Thailand?

Hours, days, weeks  etc.?

Would the banks close and how soon?

Probably just a bit early to start with.....maybe 3pm?

[Why Me]

Don't let me interrupt your doomsday preps but here's what's going to happen before they ring in the new year:

1. The war will be over. The Russians made a mistake the first time thinking a show of force would be enough to bring Ukraine/NATO to the negotiating table. It didn't so now they will do it the hard way. The current mobilization will be complete before the ground freezes and then they they will move on the hard surface. What's left of the Ukrainian army at the end of it will be huge numbers of separated body parts.

2. No, nuclear weapons will not have been used. 

Generals on both sides may be stupid but they aren't dumb. Conventional ballistic missiles will about it and there'll be plenty of those flying into Ukraine from Russia.

3. Zelensky will be dead, either from a drone strike or shot by his own generals. After which Ukraine will sue for peace and NATO will pretend it all went to plan (just like Iraq and Afghanistan).

4. Europe will suffer a hard winter. Europeans will burn firewood and old clothes to heat themselves. The resulting discontent will lead to more rightwing takeovers. Meloni is the first. Scholz in Germany will be gone. 

 

But, hey, keep stocking up on tuna cans and bottled water.

[nauseus]

3 minutes ago, Why Me said:

Don't let me interrupt your doomsday preps but here's what's going to happen before they ring in the new year:

1. The war will be over. The Russians made a mistake the first time thinking a show of force would be enough to bring Ukraine/NATO to the negotiating table. It didn't so now they will do it the hard way. The current mobilization will be complete before the ground freezes and then they they will move on the hard surface. What's left of the Ukrainian army at the end of it will be huge numbers of separated body parts.

2. No, nuclear weapons will not have been used. 

Generals on both sides may be stupid but they aren't dumb. Conventional ballistic missiles will about it and there'll be plenty of those flying into Ukraine from Russia.

3. Zelensky will be dead, either from a drone strike or shot by his own generals. After which Ukraine will sue for peace and NATO will pretend it all went to plan (just like Iraq and Afghanistan).

4. Europe will suffer a hard winter. Europeans will burn firewood and old clothes to heat themselves. The resulting discontent will lead to more rightwing takeovers. Meloni is the first. Scholz in Germany will be gone. 

 

But, hey, keep stocking up on tuna cans and bottled water.

You mean the mobilization of the thousands fleeing Russia to avoid fighting? What's left won't make a difference. Looks far more likely to me that Vlad The Bad is more likely to be targeted by 'friendly' fire.