Australian Dollar is collapsing

[Sparktrader]

1 minute ago, Adumbration said:

Sigh.  Nationalism wont displace the economic realities that are currently unfolding.  Two things are a certainty moving forward:

 

1. The AUD is toast

2. The Australian residential property market is toast

 

If any single external country enters the Ukraine conflict you can amend my above statements to badly burnt toast.

What if u wrong?

[Adumbration]

4 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

Welfare state. 2m on the dole. 8m getting money for having kids. Public servants shuffling paper. Crazy system where you wait for gp for basic script. Cant buy alcohol after 9pm in most places. Hopeless pm who spends billions on rubbish.

 

If it wasnt for iron ore and coal the country be stuffed!!!

 

 

Australia is now a basket case. They kicked the housing crash can down the road so many times...but this is the big one.  Hang on and batton down your hatches.

[itsari]

Australian economy depends on commodity prices which are suppressed by the slow meltdown of the Chinese economy .

Worse to come 

[Sparktrader]

5 minutes ago, itsari said:

Australian economy depends on commodity prices which are suppressed by the slow meltdown of the Chinese economy .

Worse to come 

Late next year i see the next bull market starting.

 

Just look at 100 years. LT trend is up. 87 crash, gfc. Everything recovers then goes a lot higher.

 

 

 

 

 

[GreasyFingers]

4 minutes ago, itsari said:

Australian economy depends on commodity prices which are suppressed by the slow meltdown of the Chinese economy .

Worse to come 

No disagreement about the Chinese economy but commodities are priced in USD so the mining companies are laughing all the way to the bank (with the help of the RBA). The problem will be if USD collapses over the next couple of years as some American commentators are suggesting.

[itsari]

1 minute ago, GreasyFingers said:

No disagreement about the Chinese economy but commodities are priced in USD so the mining companies are laughing all the way to the bank (with the help of the RBA). The problem will be if USD collapses over the next couple of years as some American commentators are suggesting.

Not logic what you say.

Just pay less US dollars for the commodity .

[GreasyFingers]

8 minutes ago, itsari said:

Not logic what you say.

Just pay less US dollars for the commodity .

But more AUD when repatriated to Australia.

[SOTIRIOS]

...Sadly This Appears To Be Global...

...Can't Blame The Climate...And Can't Blame The 'Common Folk' On This One...

 

...Problem is...Nobody Will Be Blamed Or Held Accountable...

...As Heads Of State Are Being Replaced....

...In A Timely Manner...

 

...Played God For 2 Years...Had Local Police Bashing Locals To 'Conform'...

...By The Way...That Was The 'Common Folks' ' Money That Was Used Up...

...In The Name Of An 'Emergency'...

 

...Doesn't Add Up Now Though... Does It...(?)

...6.2 Trillion Dollars Of Wealth 'Changed Hands' These Past 2 Years...

*(Don't Know If That Is Globally Or For The U.S.A. Alone)

*(All Nations Had Similar Occurrences)

 

...So The Money Has Gone Somewhere.....

 

...Some People Will Be Just Fine...

...Others Will Be Lucky To Be Able To Feed Their Families...Pay The Electric Bill...Buy Gasoline....

 

 

[itsari]

27 minutes ago, GreasyFingers said:

But more AUD when repatriated to Australia.

Take a look at the  iron ore price Index . Repatriated or not a very low price.

[Sparktrader]

1 minute ago, itsari said:

Take a look at the  iron ore price Index . Repatriated or not a very low price.

Cycles. 12 mths time be high again.

[itsari]

3 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

Cycles. 12 mths time be high again.

Possible, but unlikely.

[Sparktrader]

13 minutes ago, itsari said:

Possible, but unlikely.

Are you an economist?

[3NUMBAS]

rub n tugs are still busy

[Sparktrader]

3rd wave down

 Should find a low next year

[Lacessit]

The AUD was close to 25 to the baht recently, now 23.6. About an 8% decline, I would not call it a collapse.

Statistically, one needs 7 data points in a row to call a significant trend. Some posters seem to be content with one.

As the pension I get from Centrelink has increased by 4.5% recently, I am not too concerned. The Australian economy is strong compared to basket cases like the UK.

I've seen the AUD fluctuate in the 12 years I have been here, yawn.

[Aussiepeter]

I can't believe some of the silly uneducated comments made on here about Australia & the economy. Australian banks are amongst the toughest in the world, have good reserves and don't look like going backwards. Never have done since the Great Depression of 1930. A simple computer glitch in the transfer mechanism between banks caused a minor hiccup yesterday - nothing else. After coming & going to LOS for years, I moved to LOS & stayed from 2000 - 2013 and lived well, building a lovely home with my Thai wife and child. My army pension meant we could live well, but living like a farang costs $, so we saved little over those thirteen years. Then, after a cancer diagnosis, I made the decision to relocate back to Oz and it was the best one I ever made, according to the lady of the house. She will NEVER go back to Thailand - she has made that very clear. I beat the cancer & went back to work. My family has bred & raced thoroughbreds for well over 100 years. I inherited the business, but not for free. We sold our house in LOS & returned to OZ - nine years on we own our house and farm & now have millions of baht in the bank. Better still, Oz banks are guaranteed by our Federal govt. & as I studied law, I never let the balance go over 5 mil baht ($250K) in any one bank as, that is the limit for one person per account in one bank that is govt. guaranteed. As someone else said, our economy is resource based just like, say, Saudi Arabia. They have oil - we have unlimited high grade coal for steel-making, plus iron ore, gas, beef & grain for export and now lithium, needed by the entire world for batteries. Any talk of Australia going broke is fanciful, at best. I gamble thousands of baht every Wednesday & Sunday alone, on races in Hong Kong and, that's just for fun. I work hard, but the rewards are enormous. Yes, there are many lazy welfare bludgers in Oz, but there are plenty more just like my Thai wife & I who work hard & love it here. Yes the Oz dollar is low, but look at the UK pound and Euro ! I turned 70 today - my doctor called me to say my latest cancer test was clear - that's six years now. One thing is certain, I'd trust an Australian bank before I'd ever again put one cent in a Thai bank - at least here they pay interest to foreigners ...... 

 

[Sparktrader]

37 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

The AUD was close to 25 to the baht recently, now 23.6. About an 8% decline, I would not call it a collapse.

Statistically, one needs 7 data points in a row to call a significant trend. Some posters seem to be content with one.

As the pension I get from Centrelink has increased by 4.5% recently, I am not too concerned. The Australian economy is strong compared to basket cases like the UK.

I've seen the AUD fluctuate in the 12 years I have been here, yawn.

Can you get full pension in Thailand or part?

[NorthernRyland]

4 hours ago, Tradewind777 said:

We don’t favour locals over “aliens”.

Well that's an obviously a mistake and cruel even.. Young Aussie man born in 2000, have fun competing with the rest of the world for limited housing and jobs. You're country doesn't favor you over anyone else in the world so don't complain if you lose out and struggle.

[still kicking]

14 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

Can you get full pension in Thailand or part?

Advice for you don't live in Thailand I get full pension in Australia plus plus plus and I lost all my super when I moved to Thailand and I live very well on my pension in Australia

[Sparktrader]

1 minute ago, still kicking said:

Advice for you don't live in Thailand I get full pension in Australia plus plus plus and I lost all my super when I moved to Thailand and I live very well on my pension in Australia

Why would you lose super?

[still kicking]

6 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

Why would you lose super?

moving away from Australia

[Sparktrader]

6 minutes ago, still kicking said:

moving away from Australia

U dont lose it.

[MadMuhammad]

8 hours ago, Sparktrader said:

Too many public servants. Too much waste. Country run by duds who dont care.

I've been hearing that since i was a kid

[Sparktrader]

1 minute ago, MadMuhammad said:

I've been hearing that since i was a kid

And it's true. Look at the debt. 

[lahgon29]

4 hours ago, Adumbration said:

Sigh.  Nationalism wont displace the economic realities that are currently unfolding.  Two things are a certainty moving forward:

 

1. The AUD is toast

2. The Australian residential property market is toast

 

If any single external country enters the Ukraine conflict you can amend my above statements to badly burnt toast.

Sigh. Australia is in a much better position than most, mate, that's the point. "in the land of the blind, the 1 eyed man is king"

The Australian residential market is toast was first heard by me in 1981 when I bought my house in Brisbane for 35k. Sold last year (not mine anymore) for 1.2 mil.

Try a glass half full attitude sometime. 

 

[aussienam]

$1 AUD to the Thb has  ranged between 20 to 25 baht for around the last 5 years.  From 25 down to 20 baht that was a 20% increase in the cost of living here in Thailand.  

 

That 5 baht range makes a 1000 Baht cost from $40 to $50 AUD. 

 

If it drops to previous lows of 18-19 Baht to 1AUD, it becomes expensive here (for me).  Wasn't fun with 25-30% cost increase. Lot of boring months spent indoors then (felt like I was back in Oz LOL). 

 

I suppose it's possible it may cycle back down that way and test the March 2020 COVID low if there are more major negative macroeconomic hits. 

It has been in a nice uptrend  since the COVID crash.  

 

 

[talahtnut]

According to London 8:45 this morning the Ozzy Dollar

is holding on well.

Even so, I imagine you should start stacking.

[Lacessit]

2 hours ago, Sparktrader said:

Can you get full pension in Thailand or part?

I get close to the full base pension, a friend of mine in CM gets the full base pension. I don't get supplements such as utilities and rent assistance, which is fair enough. Rent and electricity here is far cheaper anyway.

My son's electricity bill last month was over $400, mine combined for the house and condo was $50.

Edited October 13, 2022 by Lacessit

[Sparktrader]

1 minute ago, Lacessit said:

I get close to the full base pension, a friend of mine in CM gets the full base pension. I don't get supplements such as utilities and rent assistance, which is fair enough. Rent and electricity here is far cheaper anyway.

In 20 years time I wonder if that applies. Probably not. 

[Lacessit]

2 hours ago, still kicking said:

Advice for you don't live in Thailand I get full pension in Australia plus plus plus and I lost all my super when I moved to Thailand and I live very well on my pension in Australia

" I lost all my super when I moved to Thailand".

Doesn't take Einstein to work out how that happened.

If you still own a roof over your head in Oz, a full pension gives a reasonable lifestyle, although I suspect skyrocketing costs will change that. If you are renting, 50-60% of the age pension will go in rent alone.

Your advice is noted, as I have been living very comfortably in Thailand for 12 years now I'd say I did things differently here.