Foreign tourism is Thailand’s only hope in 2023 as exports dim with hard times seen in key markets

[webfact]

Director of the Fiscal Policy Office at the Ministry of Finance, Mr Pornchai Thiravech, confirmed that Thailand’s exports for October 2022 were off by 4.4% compared with last year and that the kingdom posted a deficit of $596.4 million for the month. There were 1.48 million foreign tourist arrivals in October but the majority of these were short-haul visitors from Asia.

 

by Joseph O' Connor

The Economic Intelligence Centre (EIC), the research arm of Siam Commercial Bank has forecast growth of 3.4% in 2023 compared to similar projections for 2022.

 

This is dependent on the kingdom receiving 28 million visitors next year, 4 million of whom are expected to come from China, a country whose economy is currently in a state of crisis and where street protests have broken out this week across the mainland.

Thailand’s economy is still facing a growing list of challenges as the year 2023 comes into sight. In the past week, as well as what health officials have termed as a smaller wave of the COVID-19 virus, the country’s exports for October are reported to be down by 4.4% from last year while incoming tourists, although rising to 1.48 million for the month, are now predominantly originating in Asia and spending less.

 

With 2023 predicted to be a year of falling GDP in many countries including Europe and China, the kingdom is very much dependent on its critical foreign tourism industry to boost its economic performance and drive another year of similar growth to his year.

 

Full story: https://www.thaiexaminer.com/thai-news-foreigners/2022/11/28/foreign-tourism-only-economic-hope-for-thailand-2023/

 

-- © Copyright Thai Examiner 2022-11-29

 

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[soi3eddie]

That's a bleak economic outlook for Thailand. Can't see foreign tourism saving the situation, as economies around the world fall into recession in 2023. Long haul tourism is going to be way down the list of essentials for Europeans and North Americans. 

 

Edited November 28, 2022 by soi3eddie

[ozimoron]

The baht remains strong. Four years ago it was the strongest currency in the world. Thailand runs a current account surplus.

 

That said, I think there were over 40 million tourists at the peak. A great many of these were Chinese no dollar tourists but I also saw plenty of couples travelling in pairs. It's hard to image many coming from China next year. Or anywhere else because of an anticipated economic downturn. I guess this is why they allow the Russians, knowing there is a large push imperative for them to come.

 

Exports may be down because of the covid supply crunch. As an amateur economist I find this a little hard to fathom. A supply crunch led to high inflation which normally signals demand greater than supply and a labour shortage. US unemployment is at historic lows. The supply crunch has eased significantly but the inflation remains with us. The news is reporting record online Thanksgiving sales over $9 billion dollars, with a B. Maybe the recession isn't baked in yet.

 

Thailand may have plenty to be optimistic about. Value holidays here will be looking good instead of St Moritz. The perennial Japanese favourite, Hawaii, looks set to blow up so they'll be giving there a miss for awhile. Indonesia is in the process of kicking out most of its expats. A steady hand on the tiller and Thailand will be OK.

Edited November 28, 2022 by ozimoron

[HuskerDo2]

They need to revise their visa rules to more warmly welcome expats wanting to live there. These 90 day reporting rules and having to leave the country for a day and then returning make no sense. If they made more people feel "welcome" instead of making them feel like criminals, it would probably inject millions into the economy. It would be a win-win. 

[davemos]

If they want tourists ( young ) they should have late closing clu bs and.less restrictions on alcaho.l Cambodia is booming with a vibrant night life and much cheaper prices .Perhaos open latenight venues in designated areas . No one wants to get chucked out of a venue because of  silly laws .

[jacko45k]

And yet I recently saw a report on vehicle production telling us how it had gone up many % points, with the majority going overseas.... so which is it.

[jacko45k]

26 minutes ago, davemos said:

If they want tourists ( young ) they should have late closing clu bs and.less restrictions on alcaho.l Cambodia is booming with a vibrant night life and much cheaper prices .Perhaos open latenight venues in designated areas . No one wants to get chucked out of a venue because of  silly laws .

Then, if that is what you seek off you go to Cambodia. I just don't see that many tourists give a FF as to whether they can drink themselves stupid until 4am, rather than 2am. It is a small select group. Where in Cambodia is there the attractive beach-life as one would find on say Samui or in Phuket? 

I once enjoyed Sihanoukville but I believe it has been utterly ruined. 

Edited November 28, 2022 by jacko45k

[ThailandRyan]

An opposite story of what was posted the other day where they indicated inflation here was in check and tourism expected to boom next year back to 2019 levels. In the past month the dollar retracted down and the baht strengthened.  The Fed will still be increasing the basis points again. Food prices in the US are stupidly high now and imports to Thailand are suffering. Not seeing any silver lining for Thailand, yet someone's manipulating the Baht for the holidays.

[Robert Tyrrell]

Good morning ☀️ 

 

Only in Thailand  !! ????  Can News Media state in there headlines hoping to see better Tourism numbers in 2023 and then the second headline on the same article stating there adding staff for additional Tourism influx of people currently.

Who the <deleted> !! Writes news like this !!?? TIT 555555 ????  

[Foghorn]

So mores Asians coming to thailand and spending less , but still the favourite ones 

[riverhigh]

 

This paragraph says it all:

 

"With 2023 predicted to be a year of falling GDP in many countries including Europe and China, the kingdom is very much dependent on its critical foreign tourism industry to boost its economic performance and drive another year of similar growth to his year."

 

Thailand being reliant on exports will have to diversify and increase domestic consumption to make up for the shorfall in exports. This will be very difficult for Thailand as this will require the Hi-So Thais sharing their wealth and empowering the lower class.

[SiSePuede419]

Thailand 2023 World Stoned Cup.

 

Hey, never saw any stoned soccer fans burn down anything. 

 

Only the drunks. ????

 

Let Jah be Praised. ????

 

Edited November 28, 2022 by SiSePuede419

[ikke1959]

The results of a too expensive THB.... Thailand hotels are more expensive than hotels in Paris, some products are even more expensive than in the western countries.. just a bottle of water I paid in Spain 50 eurocent ( about 19 THB) and here in Thailand the same bottle at Tops 57 THB. With rising petrol costs tourists can find cheaper destinations with less restrictions such as alcohol sales, and non banned e cigarettes. The same is happening in the export. If the THB is too expensive people will go buy somewhere else, which they are already doing and the results will be known only in several months. It is a lack of management by the Thai Government, who doesn't see and don't take any action for these problems. Everything must be looking good to save face, but the reality is getting the country down. and see what is happening again.. Export in hard times... THB more expensive instead of cheaper.. 

[spidermike007]

Sacrifices need to be made. I do not hear ANY discussion about what sacrifices Thailand is willing to make, to get the tourists, and that multi trillion baht cash cow back.

 

The very first thing would be to repeal the anti farang wine bill, that was passed by a few very corrupt senators way back when, to protect an anemic local wine industry. They are losing billions of dollars a year in revenue, that would be had from a 100% wine duty, instead of 365%. The five star hotels would have major wine events, and the entire industry would flourish here.

Thailand keeps droning on and on and on, about how they want wealthy tourists.

 

Again, what sacrifices are you willing to make? Rich tourists like to spend money when they travel. And they cannot do that here, as they do not like getting taken for a ride. Most wealthy people are smart with their money. Thailand could be making a fortune on a 25% luxury tax, instead of the 100% of more, which discourages most people from buying. How many people do you see in the luxury stores here? They are almost always completely empty. Inane. They want the tourists but they are not willing to sacrifice anything to get them. Beyond inane.
 

[HuskerDo2]

26 minutes ago, davemos said:

If they want tourists ( young ) they should have late closing clu bs and.less restrictions on alcaho.l Cambodia is booming with a vibrant night life and much cheaper prices .Perhaos open latenight venues in designated areas . No one wants to get chucked out of a venue because of  silly laws .

"If they want tourists ( young )".... wrong thought process. You want the OLDER tourists who have the money.

[ezzra]

So let's increase the number of raids, busts and harassing patrons in bars on on the streets by the police for drug's test and showing ID, that will defeatedly increase the revenues from the tourism sector... 

Edited November 28, 2022 by ezzra

[AhFarangJa]

22 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Sacrifices need to be made. I do not hear ANY discussion about what sacrifices Thailand is willing to make, to get the tourists, and that multi trillion baht cash cow back.

 

The very first thing would be to repeal the anti farang wine bill, that was passed by a few very corrupt senators way back when, to protect an anemic local wine industry. They are losing billions of dollars a year in revenue, that would be had from a 100% wine duty, instead of 365%. The five star hotels would have major wine events, and the entire industry would flourish here.

Thailand keeps droning on and on and on, about how they want wealthy tourists.

 

Again, what sacrifices are you willing to make? Rich tourists like to spend money when they travel. And they cannot do that here, as they do not like getting taken for a ride. Most wealthy people are smart with their money. Thailand could be making a fortune on a 25% luxury tax, instead of the 100% of more, which discourages most people from buying. How many people do you see in the luxury stores here? They are almost always completely empty. Inane. They want the tourists but they are not willing to sacrifice anything to get them. Beyond inane.
 

Wholeheartedly agree, especially regarding the Farang tax on wine, which was so blatant as to be a virtual slap in the face, However, I seem to sense the old Thai phenomenon of less customers, raise prices, keeps raising its ugly head. Unfortunately, the simple, yet logical approach you mention will never occur to the xenophobic dinosaurs who run the country at the moment.

[RichardColeman]

Drop the baht 20% increase export 50%

[HappyExpat57]

1 hour ago, jacko45k said:

And yet I recently saw a report on vehicle production telling us how it had gone up many % points, with the majority going overseas.... so which is it.

As the immortal Samuel Langhorne Clemens said,  " 'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.' "

[LudwigK]

Many of the "tourists" now are refugees (Ukraine,Russia). The next "tourist" refugee group will be china -as soon as they can leave the Country!!!!

Edited November 29, 2022 by LudwigK

[Daithi85]

4 hours ago, HuskerDo2 said:

They need to revise their visa rules to more warmly welcome expats wanting to live there. These 90 day reporting rules and having to leave the country for a day and then returning make no sense. If they made more people feel "welcome" instead of making them feel like criminals, it would probably inject millions into the economy. It would be a win-win. 

How is having to report your address every 3months difficult?bloody hell it's not the end of the world.People living here on retirement visas have it easy.

[shackleton]

They want to make their minds up on what type of tourist they to attract to Thailand 

One minute it's Families who will spend a lot of money on hotels travelling sight seeing restaurants and so on 

Or is it young people who want to spend their time in clubs bars  drinking until the early hours of morning and chasing the young girls ???? ???? 

[huangnon]

Pent-up demand (post-Covid) for holidays here will subside next year, when the cost of air fares will still be daunting for a lot of people paying crazy prices for energy and food this Winter . Tourism can't be relied on for Thailand's economy. -Even at pre-pandemic levels, it only accounted for around 12% of GDP..

The sky-high Baht really needs to be addressed. For exports and tourism.

Edited November 29, 2022 by huangnon

[Bobydog]

3 hours ago, jacko45k said:

And yet I recently saw a report on vehicle production telling us how it had gone up many % points, with the majority going overseas.... so which is it.

Good question,  there was also a poll taken a couple of years ago that said that "Most Thai's didnt want Foreigners " so hows that working out.

[damo1967]

34 minutes ago, Daithi85 said:

How is having to report your address every 3months difficult?bloody hell it's not the end of the world.People living here on retirement visas have it easy.

You can do 90 day reporting online, and it literally takes 3-4 moinutes.

[Iron Tongue]

No economic vision.

As Western countries seek to move health & technology manufacturing out of China, all the other Asian nations are throwing themselves at these companies to set-up factories in their countries, but how much has Thailand chased after them?  I don't see much activity at all for this kind of future.

 

Just ask yourself, would the Japanese, Koreans, Taiwanese, Singaporians, etc. rather work in Thailand or India?

[Cake Monster]

Oh dear !

If the TAT dream team are still relying upon the Chinese hordes for a bail out, they better think again 

Covid is more rampant in China now than it ever was, and as others have stated in this thread, many Countries are heading into a recession in 2023/4, and peoples earnings are falling way behind Inflation.

As I have been saying for a while now, the last thing Money will be allotted too in the near future, and for some time to come, will be a Foreign Holiday, and with the falling production and Exports, times they are a changing.

[nigelforbes]

4 hours ago, HuskerDo2 said:

They need to revise their visa rules to more warmly welcome expats wanting to live there. These 90 day reporting rules and having to leave the country for a day and then returning make no sense. If they made more people feel "welcome" instead of making them feel like criminals, it would probably inject millions into the economy. It would be a win-win. 

The total value of all expat financial activity in Thailand has been estimated to be  equal to less than 4% of GDP, that includes all the 800K baht in the bank and average spending at that level. That means if every expat in the country left tomorrow, Thai GDP would shrink by only 4%. Adding new visa's aint going to do the trick, no matter how highly expats regard themselves and their spending power.

[newnative]

3 hours ago, Foghorn said:

So mores Asians coming to thailand and spending less , but still the favourite ones 

     I don't think it's a case of favorites.  It's just the way things have been the past five years or so.  Tourist numbers from all countries were up in 2019 except for Singapore and Australia, down very  slightly.  The myth that western tourist numbers were declining in the years before covid is just that--a myth.   Also a myth that most of the Chinese visitors were on low-budget package tours--the majority were independent travelers.   Perception does not always equal reality.

     Numbers from some Asian countries, however, were increasing at a higher rate, and, in some cases such as China and India, a much higher rate as more Asian travelers could afford to travel and picked nearby Thailand to visit.  It's true their spending per tourist was somewhat less but the numbers were more.  Does a country with a big focus on tourism want just a few big spenders from the Middle East, who spent the most per visitor, or lots of tourists of all stripes from many countries to fill all the different types of hotel rooms?   

[IamNoone88]

4 hours ago, HuskerDo2 said:

They need to revise their visa rules to more warmly welcome expats wanting to live there. These 90 day reporting rules and having to leave the country for a day and then returning make no sense. If they made more people feel "welcome" instead of making them feel like criminals, it would probably inject millions into the economy. It would be a win-win. 

There are plenty of visa options to stay in Thailand and if you are leaving for a cross border trip every 90 days then that is your problem for not complying with one of the many options that are made available. As for the actual 90 day reporting, it takes 5 minutes and is never an issue. If the UK had 90 day reporting for immigrants it would not face the same mess that as it does today. As for foreign criminals in Thailand, well its been a magnet for some, big and small and that is precisely why there are at least some controls in place. If you follow the rules and comply with their regulations you can fortunately stay here and enjoy your life. We are guests no matter how we live here.