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Thailand mentioned as a place that Russians are fleeing their war to

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  • Author

Maybe worth noting. 

It appears that everywhere the Russian dodger refugees are going in large numbers and allowed to stay a long time the rents have skyrocketed.

 

For example Tblisi Georgia and Buenos Aires Argentina.

 

Thailand isn't as visa liberal as those places but a lot of Russians can afford Elite cards.

 

Are key Russian magnets here such as Phuket and Pattaya at risk for the same inflationary effect?

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  • There might be a million such Russians globally. Many of the men have brought their entire families with them or love partners. Back in Russia they are portrayed as villianous traitors   As

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I wonder what happens if a Russian draft dodger's passport expires while taking refuge in Thailand. I wouldn't be surprised if Russia made it difficult or impossible to get a replacement.

 

Taking this a step further, Russia could revoke the passports of those who've left the country to evade conscription.

 

That would be a real test for Thailand. For some reason, I don't see Thailand helping Russians who find themselves trapped in Thailand without a valid passport  

  • Author
5 minutes ago, Caldera said:

I wonder what happens if a Russian draft dodger's passport expires while taking refuge in Thailand. I wouldn't be surprised if Russia made it difficult or impossible to get a replacement.

 

Taking this a step further, Russia could revoke the passports of those who've left the country to evade conscription.

 

That would be a real test for Thailand. For some reason, I don't see Thailand helping Russians who find themselves trapped in Thailand without a valid passport  

I've wondered about that too.

Based on the recent crackdown on returning Russian men my best guess is that Russia would not revoke valid passports but would take any business with the embassy  as a time to give major grief to suspected dodgers.

These people need a new country.

46 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Are key Russian magnets here such as Phuket and Pattaya at risk for the same inflationary effect?

If so, it might call into question the wisdom of the cherished ANF Renters' Little Miss Muffet Principle of residence in Thailand. Not too late to buy and sell to the Russians later? I suppose they could make me an offer I couldn't refuse. But I hope they don't.???? 

There certainly are a LOT more Russian people here in Pattaya than I ever remember before.  Walking down the beach or down the street, I hear more Russian being spoken than Thai!

 

  • Author
51 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

There certainly are a LOT more Russian people here in Pattaya than I ever remember before.  Walking down the beach or down the street, I hear more Russian being spoken than Thai!

 

I suppose I'm not the only one that wonders what percentage are in the dodger-refugee brigade vs. holiday makers etc. I wish some informed Russians could tell us. However I reckon by now most every Russian is feeling impacts of their not so dear leader's war of choice by now.

3 hours ago, Jingthing said:

I suppose I'm not the only one that wonders what percentage are in the dodger-refugee brigade vs. holiday makers etc.

So much idle wonderment among our old pensioners.

 

3 hours ago, Jingthing said:

I wish some informed Russians could tell us.

Superfluous information that would probably be distorted and misused for irrelevant virtue signaling and phony hand wringing.

 

All the Russians I see, and I see them daily, seem glad to be here (for Russians). I suppose even a supposed draft dodger might regard his time dodging in Thailand as a holiday, maybe meet some hot babes. Let's merely let them dodge in peace.

 

  • Author

The number of Russians that are dodger refugees does actually matter.

 

If the numbers are very large we can expect future impacts such as 

 

Appeals for extensions based on persecution at home

 

More Elite sales

 

Flooding towards any possible visa option scheme to stay longer

 

Increased Illegal working 

 

Increased Overstays

 

Possible housing cost spikes

 

Other unexpected consequences 

21 hours ago, Jingthing said:

The number of Russians that are dodger refugees does actually matter.

 

If the numbers are very large we can expect future impacts such as 

 

Appeals for extensions based on persecution at home

 

More Elite sales

 

Flooding towards any possible visa option scheme to stay longer

 

Increased Illegal working 

 

Increased Overstays

 

Possible housing cost spikes

 

Other unexpected consequences 

More pot stirring, alarmism, and anti-Russian sentiment.

 

If these actually do become major issues, Thais will deal them, if imperfectly, as Thais do.

 

We've had scary music constantly played on the forum over the decades, mostly to enhance the posters' perceived self-importance. Gave me some laughs as I carried on enjoying my life. I'm enjoying a little more lately owing to those Russian hotties enhancing the scenery on the beach, too. No problems at all w/ Russians around town, been fine. I'm glad they're helping the economy. Got a few longer-term renters in my building, nice folks. 

 

The reason these typical dire consequences constantly predicted on the forum never come true is that the precautionary principle necessarily assumes ceteris paribus – that is, all other things remain equal. In reality--which we carefully ignore--all's in flux, ever-changing to meet conditions, including Thai laws and regulations. I could give some good examples to prove this point, but why bother? And reminders of past refuted nonsense never do the least bit of good.

 

All better? ????

  • Author

There is nothing anti Russian about this topic.

If the topic doesn't interest you just ignore it.

The quickly growing Russian diaspora because of Putins war of choice is very real.

It's historic actually and will be seen in context of other similar mass outward migrations in Russian history 

Thailand is a part of it and that's a fact.

Koh Phangan is swarming with Russians, mostly young men of 'fighting' age.

I was under the impression you couldn’t leave Russia without good reason, I wouldn’t have a holiday would be one

  • Author
28 minutes ago, Jumbo1968 said:

I was under the impression you couldn’t leave Russia without good reason, I wouldn’t have a holiday would be one

No they can mostly still leave for now though potentially face screening questions.

An exception is land borders by car where you they need an appointment.

  • Author
47 minutes ago, simon43 said:

Koh Phangan is swarming with Russians, mostly young men of 'fighting' age.

Out shopping last night in Jomtien I noticed more "counter cultural" looking young Russian men than in previous Russian waves here. I doubt such people are often Z fascists.

A local gay club is now doing Russian disco nights.

Never saw that here before.

I think LGBT Russians should be eligible for asylum in the west similarly to LGBT Iranians.

Seems like the Russian invasion is predictably happening 90% in Phuket/Pattaya. They've always been there in big numbers. It's like me being shocked to find Chinese tourists in Chiang Mai.

 

I demurred on living in Jomtien, my second choice, because I wanted the vibe to be a little bit international, but not too international. If you signed up for medium-international and now it's diff, I can understand the unhappiness.

 

Can the Ukraine war carry on for another full year? I'd bet no. And then that's the end of the swollen Russian diaspora. While the numbers may seem eye-popping when witnessed at the mall, it's prob a drop in the bucket compared to people dodging the draft in other places and via other means.

 

Also, like during the Vietnam War, upper middle class draft dodgers there are not so ruthlessly pursued as their poorer and more ethnically unlucky brothers. Anyone who can afford an Elite Visa and six months of vacation expenses is near the top of Russian society.

 

I am foolishly bound for a Full Moon Party on Ko Phagnan in 2 weeks, but in the world of psytrance music, all men are brothers, so I'm sure it will be fine.

......According to that excellent article, Thailand doesn't even make the top 10 places Russians are decamping to. The 9th place holder, Mongolia, only has 7,700 Russians there.

 

So If Phuket, Pattaya, and a handful of other places have that many additional people, is Pattaya truly over-run if it has say, 2,000 extra Russians lolling about in one of the most over-built places on earth?

 

What impact on rents etc. can a number that's basically a tourism rounding error really have?

3 minutes ago, LaosLover said:

......According to that excellent article, Thailand doesn't even make the top 10 places Russians are decamping to. The 9th place holder, Mongolia, only has 7,700 Russians there.

 

So If Phuket, Pattaya, and a handful of other places have that many additional people, is Pattaya truly over-run if it has say, 2,000 extra Russians lolling about in one of the most over-built places on earth?

 

What impact on rents etc. can a number that's basically a tourism rounding error really have?

Pattaya alone has far more than that number. I could count that number in a single hour during a stroll along the main beach and through the mall.

It's a hard counting job to know which ones are there for 2 weeks or 2 years just by looking at them.

 

If the number 9 Russian-escape place only has 7,700 Russians in it, how to account for the perceptions here that places like Krabi are "full up" to the point of needing an Immigration crackdown?

 

If I lived in Pattaya, I would prob feel the Russian invasion that people cite here. If I lived 2 hours away in Trat, maybe not.

  • Author

I don’t really trust the numbers in that article.  In my view the numbers are probably much higher everywhere Russians can go to. It's a demographic that doesn’t really want to be detected for the most part. Big numbers tend to attract big backlash. For example Turkey even before the earthquake made permanent residency much more difficult. There are even reports that Georgia at least sometimes turns Russians away. In Argentina pregnant Russian women were held in limbo at airports but reportedly they did cave and  let them in.

 

Also consider that Thailand isn't even trying to count them. As far as their concerned they are ALL tourists! What else would you expect in Make Believe Land!

Say the numbers are off by a full 100%.

 

That means a top # of an additional 15,000 Russians -who are somehow spotted by AsianNow commenters at a rate of at least 150,000 times. Every day.

 

And then balance that number against the Chinese visitor shortfall.

 

I don't see how this small increase in renters (and many won't rent apartments) has a noticeable inflationary impact on rents.

 

The pettiest complaint here is that Russian expats open businesses that serve other Russian expats and tourists. I see a fake Aussie pub about every quarter of a mile in Chiang Mai, and nobody seems mad about it.

  • Author
7 minutes ago, LaosLover said:

Say the numbers are off by a full 100%.

 

That means a top # of an additional 15,000 Russians -who are somehow spotted by AsianNow commenters at a rate of at least 150,000 times. Every day.

 

And then balance that number against the Chinese visitor shortfall.

 

I don't see how this small increase in renters (and many won't rent apartments) has a noticeable inflationary impact on rents.

 

The pettiest complaint here is that Russian expats open businesses that serve other Russian expats and tourists. I see a fake Aussie pub about every quarter of a mile in Chiang Mai, and nobody seems mad about it.

The numbers could off by many multiples of 100 percent  Again Thailand doesn't distinguish them from tourists!

This is why I seek Russian opinions here about the real numbers in terms of a rough percentage of all Russian tourists.

On 2/15/2023 at 5:39 PM, RamblingOn said:

They are, from Russian point of view, off course traitors.

They are from my point of view either hypocrites, criminals,  or cowards, maybe all three. You either fight for a criminal regime,  or you fight against it, what you don't do, if you have any shame at all,  is pxxs off and sit on a beach in Thailand,  drinking Singapore Slings and acting like a tourist.  Throw them all out is the answer. 

7 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

This is why I seek Russian opinions here about the real numbers

Russian opinions on this and any other subject are worthless and certainly of no interest to me, or to many others . 

Since we both lack the gift of clairvoyance, the true number of Russians here, specifically as draft dodgers, is unknowable.

 

To wonk out a bit, the numbers for places like Serbia or Turkey are possibly inflated because they will be getting reimbursed by a third party like the UN. No way are they massively understated. 

 

Turkey at 78,000 Russians, is a lot easier for them to get to than Thailand. Positing similar numbers for Thailand requires an explanation.

 

And then, at 78,000 new visitors (a ten-fold increase over #9 listing, Mongolia), now in the low season where housing demand will be less, against a backdrop of many less Chinese visitors, I don't see where the rent jumps come from.

 

 

23 minutes ago, LaosLover said:

Say the numbers are off by a full 100%.

 

That means a top # of an additional 15,000 Russians -who are somehow spotted by AsianNow commenters at a rate of at least 150,000 times. Every day.

 

And then balance that number against the Chinese visitor shortfall.

 

I don't see how this small increase in renters (and many won't rent apartments) has a noticeable inflationary impact on rents.

 

The pettiest complaint here is that Russian expats open businesses that serve other Russian expats and tourists. I see a fake Aussie pub about every quarter of a mile in Chiang Mai, and nobody seems mad about it.

Many posters here have mentioned that their condo blocks in Pattaya are filled with Russians

 

7 minutes ago, LaosLover said:

Since we both lack the gift of clairvoyance, the true number of Russians here, specifically as draft dodgers, is unknowable.

 

To wonk out a bit, the numbers for places like Serbia or Turkey are possibly inflated because they will be getting reimbursed by a third party like the UN. No way are they massively understated. 

 

Turkey at 78,000 Russians, is a lot easier for them to get to than Thailand. Positing similar numbers for Thailand requires an explanation.

 

And then, at 78,000 new visitors (a ten-fold increase over #9 listing, Mongolia), now in the low season where housing demand will be less, against a backdrop of many less Chinese visitors, I don't see where the rent jumps come from.

My eyes tell me there are many thousands of Russians in Pattaya. There are several flights a week to U-Tapao airport from Russia. They aren't empty.

This remind me of when the great film critic, Pauline Kael, expressed astonishment that Nixon had won: "Nobody I know voted for him". She was expressing what she had plainly seen with her own eyes.

 

I presume those U-Tapao flights also depart with Russians in them going back home too.

 

Since no here has a real clue, just for discussion/shooting the breeze, what round number would you put on the likely amount of Russian draft dodgers here right now and why?

 

I'll go with a super-generous estimate of quadruple Mongolia (right next door to them) and half of Turkey (right next door to them). So call it 35,000. That's the absolute highest estimate that makes sense, despite what I might anecdotally experience.

9 minutes ago, LaosLover said:

This remind me of when the great film critic, Pauline Kael, expressed astonishment that Nixon had won: "Nobody I know voted for him". She was expressing what she had plainly seen with her own eyes.

 

I presume those U-Tapao flights also depart with Russians in them going back home too.

 

Since no here has a real clue, just for discussion/shooting the breeze, what round number would you put on the likely amount of Russian draft dodgers here right now and why?

 

I'll go with a super-generous estimate of quadruple Mongolia (right next door to them) and half of Turkey (right next door to them). So call it 35,000. That's the absolute highest estimate that makes sense, despite what I might anecdotally experience.

Reuters claims 109,000 Russian arrivals in Thailand last November alone. The flights to U-Tapao started after then if I'm not mistaken.

 

Beyond tourism, Russians are also pouring their cash into Phuket’s property sector in the absence of Chinese tourists

 

“I have no funds to renovate my hotel, so I turned it into an apartment building instead,” he said of his 20-room establishment. “Now 90 per cent of the customers are young Russians.”

Palawat thinks Phuket will see a bigger influx of Russians in the months ahead. He recently doubled the rental to 10,000 baht (US$287) a month to take advantage of the island’s popularity among Russians.

 

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/people/article/3203078/russians-fleeing-ukraine-war-seek-refuge-thailand-boost-tourism-property-investments

  • Author
28 minutes ago, Doctor Tom said:

Russian opinions on this and any other subject are worthless and certainly of no interest to me, or to many others . 

Well I think you're being overly emotional. Russians abroad tend to have close networks with other Russians  Such Russians would be the only people that would have more informed opinions about what percentage of the Russian "tourists" here are actually dodger/refugees.

The arrival of sanction-hit Russian tourists increased sevenfold in Thailand in November to 109,000 compared to 16,000 in September and this has been facilitated largely by the resumption of direct flights.

The demand from Russian tourists has also surged forward bookings. Siripakorn Cheawsamoot, deputy governor of the Tourism Authority of Thailand, expects more than one million Russian tourists in 2023, closer to the 2019 figure of 1.5 million.

 

https://skift.com/2023/01/09/why-thailand-is-the-best-bet-for-russian-tourists-these-days/

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