“Shy Prayut” Voters or “Scared Prayut” Voters? Election Polls: Accuracy and Bias

[webfact]

 

by Thai Data Points
by Joel Sawat Selway

 

Over the last month, a flurry of outlets have released their predictions for the upcoming Thai elections, scheduled for May 14, 2023. All but one puts Pheu Thai as the frontrunner, though the percentage of the vote predicted varies from 35.75% to 49.85%. One poll had the Move Forward Party in front with 50.29% of the vote, 14% higher than the next highest prediction.

 

Which of these various sources should you trust? In the first of this two-part series, I explore the performance of pollsters for the last elections in 2019. Specifically, I explore whether Thai polling agencies fell prey to a similar phenomenon as the 2016 US elections: “Shy Prayut” voters: respondents who did not want to admit that they were going to vote for the leader of the 2014 military coup.

 

Figure 1. Average of Thai polling in lead-up to Thai 2023 General Election

 

Public opinion surveys are imperfect attempts to measure the voting intention of the nation. Even in countries with completely free and fair elections and stable party systems, polls can differ. Pollsters in Thailand’s 2019 elections were criticized for their inability to predict the outcomes of the last election, but how off were the predictions? Political scientists measure this with something called the average absolute error (AAE). 

 

Full story: https://www.thaienquirer.com/49635/shy-prayut-voters-or-scared-prayut-voters-election-polls-accuracy-and-bias/

 

-- © Copyright Thai Enquirer 2023-05-13

 

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[dinsdale]

EC: 1 vote PT+1 vote MFP=3 votes for Prayut.

[Srikcir]

Poll should include those people whose "vote" trumps electorate votes no matter the winning margin: the military-industrial complex (aka Deep State), EC, Senate and the Constitution Court. 

[RanongCat]

Average absolute error ?

Is same like definitive estimate ?

Or best guess is enough for to get paid a lot ?

Same like most always night of barking dogs is important .

[MrMojoRisin]

The fact that people are embarrassed to publicly admit they support Prayuth is yet another indicator of democracy’s victory.

 

It would seem that last, solitary, lonely outpost where there remain unashamed Prayuth supporters is here, on the Aseannow boards in threads mentioning the devil himself… Thaksin. ????????????

[herfiehandbag]

3 hours ago, Srikcir said:

Poll should include those people whose "vote" trumps electorate votes no matter the winning margin: the military-industrial complex (aka Deep State), EC, Senate and the Constitution Court. 

Pedantry I know but there is no such thing as a Military-Industrial complex. There is virtually no indigenous defence industry, just about everything for the military is imported - even the berets issued to the youngsters in the school cadet forces are made in England!

 

As far as "sources of influence" are concerned the military is "stand alone".

Edited May 13, 2023 by herfiehandbag

[Stevey]

Could anybody quickly tell me who my Girlfriend should be Voting for tomorrow, she is between NongKhai and BuengKan , in NongKhai. 
 

She hasn’t a clue. Is there a particular party that is best to vote for in order to oust the present Government or is this Government ok, less hassle. I don’t  follow politics here. 
 

Hurry up she’s going to bed soon. 

[StayinThailand2much]

5 hours ago, Stevey said:

Could anybody quickly tell me who my Girlfriend should be Voting for tomorrow, she is between NongKhai and BuengKan , in NongKhai. 
 

She hasn’t a clue. Is there a particular party that is best to vote for in order to oust the present Government or is this Government ok, less hassle. I don’t  follow politics here. 
 

Hurry up she’s going to bed soon. 

My ex-girlfriend once asked me who my 'favourite Thai premier' was. While I jokingly said 'Xi Jinping', I actually thought 'Chuan Leekpai'... If I had the right to vote in Thailand, I would probably give my vote to the Democrats.

Edited May 13, 2023 by StayinThailand2much

[pegman]

Sounds like shaping public opinion for a stolen election. 

[still kicking]

17 minutes ago, pegman said:

Sounds like shaping public opinion for a stolen election. 

As I mentioned before all of my Facebook friends (3000) have or will vote MFP.

[pegman]

5 hours ago, still kicking said:

As I mentioned before all of my Facebook friends (3000) have or will vote MFP.

Doesn't mean the official results will reflect that 

[steven100]

Voting has commenced ....      Khun Prayut Chan O Cha gestures the crowd of supporters.

 

[BenStark]

6 minutes ago, steven100 said:

Voting has commenced ....      Khun Prayut Chan O Cha gestures the crowd of supporters.

 

No, he's waving goodbye.

[Sunderland]

7 hours ago, still kicking said:

As I mentioned before all of my Facebook friends (3000) have or will vote MFP.

I think generation Z will mostly vote for Move Forward, but if they live in rural communities, they may be "persuaded" to follow whatever the local head honcho tells them to do. 

Generation Y are a big bloc of votes and I think their vote will be split between Move Forward and Pheu Thai with obviously some local voting preferences meaning other parties winning more votes in places like Buriram with Bhumjaithai.

Generation X is another very important bloc. I can see their votes being a little more widely distributed especially among older members of that group. However, the main two opposition parties should pick up a decent proportion of votes in more urban areas.

The remaining voters made up of baby boomers and the silent generation will probably have a bigger number of conservative voters who will vote for people like Prawit and Prayuth. They never learn and they don't follow social media in the same way as the groups above. They tend to rely on the state (army) media for more of their news.

Fascinating to watch the results come in later. Curious to see just how many (or few) votes and seats the United Thai Nation Party and Palang Pracharath get. Hoping Bhumjaithai receive a lot less votes too to knock Anutin down a couple of pegs.

 

The burning question is will Peua Thai and Move Forward win enough seats to form a coalition that will negate the power held by the military backed senate? They will need to win about 75% of the seats and have the same common goals, plus need to back the same person for PM.

Interesting hours lie ahead.

 

 

[spidermike007]

I predict he will not get alot of votes. He is an abhorrent leader, and has failed miserably. They are not shy. They just don't want to admit they will not vote for a goon. 

[sammieuk1]

3 hours ago, steven100 said:

Voting has commenced ....      Khun Prayut Chan O Cha gestures the crowd of supporters.

 

Hopefully that's a five finger ottoman slap the same as Erdogan will get today ???? 

[steven100]

13 minutes ago, sammieuk1 said:

Hopefully that's a five finger ottoman slap the same as Erdogan will get today ???? 

haha ....  don't worry ....   I think Prayut will be around for a lot longer yet  ....   but,  I've had a few beers so the mind is getting a little bit clouded ...    cheers'

 

 

Edited May 14, 2023 by steven100

[sammieuk1]

11 minutes ago, steven100 said:

haha ....  don't worry ....   I think Prayut will be around for a lot longer yet  ....   but,  I've had a few beers so the mind is getting a little bit clouded ...    cheers'

 

 

Around as in jail or Dubai along with a future dusky pink red notice is my bet ????

[asf6]

9 hours ago, still kicking said:

As I mentioned before all of my Facebook friends (3000) have or will vote MFP.

My wife, a long-time Democrat voter, will be voting for MFP this time.  

[Stevey]

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

I predict he will not get alot of votes. He is an abhorrent leader, and has failed miserably. They are not shy. They just don't want to admit they will not vote for a goon. 

You seem to know abit about what’s going on politically. I hoped I’d get a few answers of use but as is the norm on the members are a bunch of keyboard warriors.

 

I’m gleaning MFP are a good choice to form a majority against the current government? 
 

My girlfriend has little knowledge of politics, but he’s going to vote, any suggestions ? 

[marin]

7 minutes ago, Stevey said:

My girlfriend has little knowledge of politics, but he’s going to vote, any suggestions ? 

Oh boy did you open the door up with that one. Be able to take a joke, you just made a big one.????

[candide]

If the exit poll is reliable (and unless they find a way to rigg elections), this is a massive loss of face for Prayut and Prawit 

https://www.nationthailand.com/thailand/politics/40027609

 

Asked which party they voted for in the party-list election, the respondents replied:

- 32%: Pheu Thai

- 29.7%: Move Forward

- 10.4% Democrat

- 7.9% United Thai Nation

- 5.7%: Palang Pracharath

- 2.6% Thai Sang Thai

- 2.5%: Chart Thai Pattana

- 2.3% Seree Ruam Thai

- 1.5% Chart Pattana Kla

- 5%: Others

 

 

Edited May 14, 2023 by candide

[Stevey]

3 hours ago, marin said:

Oh boy did you open the door up with that one. Be able to take a joke, you just made a big one.????

Oh brill another funny.

 

No additional advice ? Nothing ? 
 

Too late now anyway now. She voted for someone she knows nothing about. 
 

Thanks to the Political section of AN ???? for no advice at all. @StayinThailand2much did proffer the Democrats , I told my girlfriend (or was it boyfriend hahahahaha Hilarious ???? )  to vote Democrats and she said “ great I’ll do that … what’s a democrat ? “ 

 

Great Job. At least the few visa advice posters are spot on and what makes the site worthwhile.

 

 

Edited May 14, 2023 by Stevey

[BenStark]

25 minutes ago, candide said:

Asked which party they voted for in the party-list election, the respondents replied:

- 32%: Pheu Thai

Someone on this forum gonna spit his dummy out.

[Pink Mist]

Trolling and baiting posts have been removed.  Stay on Topic.

[edwinchester]

Early results suggest PT and MF are running away with it. Prayut and Prawit seem to be getting hammered. One can only hope these early figures hold up.

[BenStark]

10 minutes ago, edwinchester said:

Early results suggest PT and MF are running away with it. Prayut and Prawit seem to be getting hammered. One can only hope these early figures hold up.

Now it's only waiting what tricks the green guys have up their sleeve. We all know by now, they have many, and don't mind to pull the dirty ones

[Sunderland]

Bhumjaithai are predicted to win 63 of the 400 constituency seats despite having 1/7 - 1/8 of the votes that both Move Forward and Pheu Thai are getting on the party list voting. So their share of the party list vote is way down, but they are winning more constituencies than last time (39). How does that make any sense???

[BenStark]

1 minute ago, Sunderland said:

Bhumjaithai are predicted to win 63 of the 400 constituency seats despite having 1/7 - 1/8 of the votes that both Move Forward and Pheu Thai are getting on the party list voting. So their share of the party list vote is way down, but they are winning more constituencies than last time (39). How does that make any sense???

Too many potheads in Thailand

[Sunderland]

Here is an example:

Surat Thani (area 6)

 

Constituency:
1 BJT 793

2 UTN 361

3 MF 140

4 PT  87

5 Dems 46

Party List:
1 MF 390
2 UTN 358
3 PT 137
4 Dems 120
5 BJT 95

BJT 793 (Con) 95 (Party)
MF 140 (Con) 390 (Party)

Lots of this to be seen at the Election Commission's webiste: https://www.ectreport.com/overview