Popular Post snoop1130 Posted August 15, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted August 15, 2023 Asian currencies experienced a downturn yesterday, led by Thailand‘s baht, as concerns heighten surrounding the recovery status of the global economy’s second-largest player, China. The baht plunged by a substantial 0.8%, marking it as the largest depreciation against the US dollar in half a dozen weeks. Across the waters of offshore markets yesterday afternoon, it was changing hands at approximately 35.30 to the dollar. Growing anxieties stem from the July data on China’s industrial output and retail sales, which display a decelerating rate and lower-than-expected figures respectively. These trends bolster the already present batch of unsatisfying economic statistics. The idea that policymakers may indeed need to increase their support for the economy is gaining credence. Interestingly, policymakers in Beijing also announced their discontinuation of the release of statistics about youth unemployment, a figure which marched to a record high of 21.3% in June. Mirroring the ominous cloud hanging over the data release, the central bank of China, in a surprising move, cut significant policy interest rates for the second time in only three months just under an hour before. This starkly highlights the evaporating rebound from the post-Covid-19 economy. ING analysts said… “As we take a broader view of things, today’s policy decisions prove to be somewhat beneficial. They would aid in enhancing the debt-service abilities of local governments and property companies lagging in cash. But this isn’t a turning point of massive proportions, thus, we hesitate to believe that market sentiment will see a profound improvement based solely on this.” By Alex Morgan Caption: Picture courtesy of Chiang Rai Times Full Story: https://thethaiger.com/news/business/thailands-baht-leads-asian-currency-downturn-amid-chinas-economic-worry -- © Copyright Thaiger 2023-08-15 - Cigna offers a range of visa-compliant plans that meet the minimum requirement of medical treatment, including COVID-19, up to THB 3m. For more information on all expat health insurance plans click here. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post ikke1959 Posted August 15, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted August 15, 2023 yes I believe that, but I think that the political situation is more of influence of the Thai Baht than China.. Negative publications about high household debts in Thailand are doing no good too and an economy that stays behind because of outdated laws and ideas are of more influence 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post hotchilli Posted August 15, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted August 15, 2023 6 hours ago, ikke1959 said: yes I believe that, but I think that the political situation is more of influence of the Thai Baht than China.. Negative publications about high household debts in Thailand are doing no good too and an economy that stays behind because of outdated laws and ideas are of more influence Apart from the elite families and other millionaires most of Thailands population is in debt to some degree, many people I know have borrowed from every source they can since Covid and are struggling to pay anything back. 4 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bignok Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 .8% is less than 1%. Not much. A 5% fall is substantial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAMHERE Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 If the China Juan falls, will the hi speed railway cost less? The Thai section of the silk road can be paid for on the cheap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Ben Zioner Posted August 15, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted August 15, 2023 Good 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sammieuk1 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 Nothing sticks to the Teflon Baht for longer than 5 nano seconds ???? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post jacko45k Posted August 15, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted August 15, 2023 Time for a 'Wise' transfer then! 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2baht Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 Good, crash and burn! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
retarius Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 I must say that I thought the insanity of the post election shenanigans would have hurt the baht. I have some money I want to bring over and have been waiting for the baht to drop. The other observation here is that if China has such a profound effect on the regions economy, it might be wise to help and not rock the boat by flirting with the US. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post mikebell Posted August 16, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted August 16, 2023 57 minutes ago, jacko45k said: Time for a 'Wise' transfer then! I'm biding my time till the UKP gets back to 70+ again. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfd101 Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 No help for Aussies here. The AUD suffers from much the same (Chinese) issues as the ฿. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
morrobay Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, sammieuk1 said: Nothing sticks to the Teflon Baht for longer than 5 nano seconds ???? Teflon bought with billions in foreign currency reserves (37 $billion in past two and a half years) by BOT to prop up/defend the baht. https://www.thaienquirer.com/44229/thai-baht-heads-to-near-37-baht-us-as-bot-defends-its-use-of-19-billion-in-defending-the-currency/ Edited August 16, 2023 by morrobay 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post jacko45k Posted August 16, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted August 16, 2023 29 minutes ago, mikebell said: I'm biding my time till the UKP gets back to 70+ again. I do hope you have that much time....... 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peterphuket Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 46 minutes ago, mikebell said: I'm biding my time till the UKP gets back to 70+ again. I think you'll have to wait until you are die. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
morrobay Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 You can do some searching on what this Thai economist knows about the foreign currency reserves and the Bank of Thailand intervening in the exchange rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangkok Barry Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 10 hours ago, ikke1959 said: yes I believe that, but I think that the political situation is more of influence of the Thai Baht than China.. Negative publications about high household debts in Thailand are doing no good too and an economy that stays behind because of outdated laws and ideas are of more influence The same situation has existed for many years. Certainly for as long as I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonnyF Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 27 minutes ago, morrobay said: Teflon bought with billions in foreign currency reserves (37 $billion in past two and a half years) by BOT to prop up/defend the baht. https://www.thaienquirer.com/44229/thai-baht-heads-to-near-37-baht-us-as-bot-defends-its-use-of-19-billion-in-defending-the-currency/ Exactly. It won't fall much further as the BOT won't allow it to. The last thing they want is a collapse like the late 90's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangkok Barry Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 56 minutes ago, mikebell said: I'm biding my time till the UKP gets back to 70+ again. I was lucky enough to buy my house then, in cash. And, the way things are going, I think a return to that rate is more likely than not. It's just a question of when. But what caused the crash then wasn't the political situation or high personal debt, it was the Bangkok Bank of Commerce handing out huge unsecured loans to their friends which eventually led to the bank's collapse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KhunLA Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 Success ... read byline first, then ignore ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caldera Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 12 hours ago, snoop1130 said: The baht plunged by a substantial 0.8% I would prefer to see it plunge by a substantial 8%. In addition, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berkshire Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 I'd noticed the USD going up rather rapidly against the THB. If it gets to 36, I may have to bring over another pile of cash....555 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superal Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 36 minutes ago, morrobay said: Teflon bought with billions in foreign currency reserves (37 $billion in past two and a half years) by BOT to prop up/defend the baht. https://www.thaienquirer.com/44229/thai-baht-heads-to-near-37-baht-us-as-bot-defends-its-use-of-19-billion-in-defending-the-currency/ So the Thai baht is artificially inflated . What affect can that have on the Thai economy ? An overrated currency , pretending to be strong whilst in reality the country has lost manufacturing companies along with a drop off in tourism . I can only assume that it is the wealthy Thais who are benefiting from the supported baht through held tangible assets such as Bangkok buildings and office blocks etc . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
morrobay Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 10 minutes ago, JonnyF said: Exactly. It won't fall much further as the BOT won't allow it to. The last thing they want is a collapse like the late 90's. But the bahts value now is not in line with fundamentals. And if those fundamentals, tourism, exports, outflows, household debt/consumer spending keep going South then how sustainable is this artificial baht exchange rate. Those foreign currency reserves are going to be needed to cover the aboves. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srikcir Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 2 hours ago, IAMHERE said: If the China Juan falls, will the hi speed railway cost less? The Thai section of the silk road can be paid for on the cheap. The Prayut government agreed originally to 100% financing by China at an interest rate higher than the then Thailand Sovereign Bond rate, likely because for potential default (NCPO rejected under Article 44 any economic feasibility study required by law). So if the TSB rate increases (ie., due to collapse in attracting capital), it seems to me that China's financial advantage is neutralized or somewhat weakened. But ... In January 2021 Thailand and China renewed a baht-yuan currency swap for the exchange of local currencies up to 370 billion baht over five years starting December 2020. That results in $1 USD = 30.06 baht. https://www.reuters.com With 35 baht = $1 USD Thailand gains the advantage, if say at least for one quarter. And that assumes the HS system will be profitable enough to cover loan debt payments. China now discovers that within China its HS rail system with minimal/no cargo will default because rates are not completely elastic to passenger personal fixed incomes. A phenonemum experienced by the Thai government with BTS contract rates. And Thailand criminalized gambling! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KannikaP Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 4 hours ago, bignok said: .8% is less than 1%. Not much. A 5% fall is substantial. Thanks BigOne, I never knew that 0.8 was less than 1.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Cake Monster Posted August 16, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted August 16, 2023 A vary good friend of mine that spends an awful lot of time in China working, told me only last week over a Beer, that he had personally witnessed 40 Story Skyscrapers being demolished as here was no potential to sell the apartments within them. Also there has been little reported in Thailand about the Large Credit Card Co in China hat has defaulted on Interest payments for Loans taken out An issue that could be potentially larger than the property crisis according to a source I read. Have the Wheels comeoff the Chinese Wagon ? Only time will tell, as it will the exposure Thailand has to these issues 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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