Not sure if I am posting this in the appropriate subforum, but it is an issue that would adversely affect  expats living in the area, especially Americans. 

There are many experts and high ranking US military officials that predict , there will be a war between The US and China  with in the next few years, in fact the year most talk is 2027. 

Never mind yearly extensions  , foreign income tax, etc. IMO a potential war, should be at the top of our concerns. 

How would such war affect us? 

"“I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me will fight in 2025," said Gen. Mike Minihan in a memo sent to the officers he commands and obtained by NBC News. "

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/us-air-force-general-predicts-war-china-2025-memo-rcna67967

 

"Taiwan foreign minister warns of conflict with China in 2027 "

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/21/taiwan-foreign-minister-warns-of-conflict-with-china-in-2027

 

"Until 2021, U.S. military officials tended to place that pivotal moment far in the future, citing the vast distance the PLA needed to go to duplicate the technological advantages of U.S. forces. Pentagon analysts most often forecast 2035 for this achievement, the date set by President Xi Jinping for China to "basically complete the modernization of national defense and the military."

This assessment, however, changed dramatically in late 2021 when the Department of Defense published its annual report on the military power of the People's Republic of China (PRC). That document highlighted a significant alteration in China's strategic planning: Whereas its leaders once viewed 2035 as the year in which the PLA would become a fully modern fighting force, they now sought to reach that key threshold in 2027,"

https://www.salon.com/2023/03/26/is-with-china-inevitable-the-answer-to-that-question-will-determine-our-future_partner/

 

 

We are all doomed.

 

Seriously, why worry? What can you do? How do you prepare for something like that? I don't fancy investing in a fallout shelter (and will probably arrive faulty from Lazada). Same for going survivalist/militia style - it's fine for a week or so, max. Guess I'm too lazy to try and survive in a post-apocalyptic world. Best I can think of is stocking some of one's favorite bottles, and having a peaceful place to have them while waiting for the inevitable.

 

If it's just one of them regular conventional wars, then either move money to safer location/mode when things heat up, stock on some essentials, and log on here to argue and rant about it. The bottles mentioned above will come handy as well. And who knows, Thailand might even come out ahead after such a war, being on the sideline and all that. Probably safer than many other places here.

 

 

22 minutes ago, Morch said:

Seriously, why worry? What can you do? How do you prepare for something like that?

Unfortunately you are right 

but nobody here seems to be talking about this and I wonder if many people are even aware of the issue .

 

 

 

2 minutes ago, sirineou said:

Unfortunately you are right 

but nobody here seems to be talking about this and I wonder if many people are even aware of the issue .

 

 

 

I'm in conscious denial mode, myself. 

Also, there are currently two war sub-forums on - I doubt that AN can withstand war on 3 fronts...

Since WW2 (which it avoided until it had no choice) the US only gets in to wars with minnows who will roll over in a few days. Absolutely no way would it enter a war with China or any other major player unless it is attacked on home soil. Not going to happen.

14 minutes ago, josephbloggs said:

Since WW2 (which it avoided until it had no choice) the US only gets in to wars with minnows who will roll over in a few days. Absolutely no way would it enter a war with China or any other major player unless it is attacked on home soil. Not going to happen.

You are of course right but what would happen to US credibility if it fails to live up to it's promise to defend Taiwan . What would happen to NATO. 

1 hour ago, sirineou said:

Unfortunately you are right 

but nobody here seems to be talking about this and I wonder if many people are even aware of the issue .

It would probably depend on which side Thailand plays, anti-American/Western and strongly pro-China, or more 'neutral', which is hard to predict, even for the next 5 years or so... Notwithstanding visas, a war would certainly have serious reper-cussions in regards to air travel, living costs, and negative implications for expats due to economic turmoil and political instability in Thailand. (Not to mention outcomes if nuclear or biological weapons were used, even on a "limited" scale.)

10 minutes ago, StayinThailand2much said:

It would probably depend on which side Thailand plays, anti-American/Western and strongly pro-China, or more 'neutral'

In  another thread posters are up in arms about the Thai PM meeting with Putin and Xi Jinping though he met with Biden in New York after the UN meeting. 

so it seems like Thailand is on the fence  to see how thing play out , Once the spheres of influence are determined remaining neutral will become a much more difficult juggling act. 

44 minutes ago, sirineou said:

You are of course right but what would happen to US credibility if it fails to live up to it's promise to defend Taiwan . What would happen to NATO. 

Good question. Personally I think the US would come out with the usual rhetoric but wouldn't actively do anything directly. I think it would provide support indirectly: weapons, funding, intelligence, ancient cluster bombs etc. I just can't image the US or NATO would ever get into conflict with China unless China did something absolutely unthinkable to instigate it.

24 minutes ago, sirineou said:

(...) so it seems like Thailand is on the fence  to see how thing play out , Once the spheres of influence are determined remaining neutral will become a much more difficult juggling act. 

Thailand, no doubt, will wait till they think they can 'spot a winner', as they did with Nazi Germany and Japan during WW2. Of course, back then, they were not only wrong, but, at the same time, also didn't suffer any disadvantages after the end of the war.

War with RU and now CH ... 🤣

 

Been hearing and reading about that war, well ... forever.  Still waiting 

We'll none of us have time to ponder on the rights and wrongs if it ever starts.

First thing first, I'll be glad to see the back of this Middle East conflict without finding out if Iran have the bomb.

3 hours ago, josephbloggs said:

Since WW2 (which it avoided until it had no choice) the US only gets in to wars with minnows who will roll over in a few days.

And then loses to them.

 

Vietnam.

Afghanistan. 

That didn't take long, now an anti-Yank thread.  How predictable.

 

You forgot all USA's lapdogs that joined in.  Very selective memories.

4 hours ago, Morch said:

We are all doomed.

 

Seriously, why worry? What can you do? How do you prepare for something like that? I don't fancy investing in a fallout shelter (and will probably arrive faulty from Lazada). Same for going survivalist/militia style - it's fine for a week or so, max. Guess I'm too lazy to try and survive in a post-apocalyptic world. Best I can think of is stocking some of one's favorite bottles, and having a peaceful place to have them while waiting for the inevitable.

 

If it's just one of them regular conventional wars, then either move money to safer location/mode when things heat up, stock on some essentials, and log on here to argue and rant about it. The bottles mentioned above will come handy as well. And who knows, Thailand might even come out ahead after such a war, being on the sideline and all that. Probably safer than many other places here.

 

 

I am quiet save I live under a rock😜

5 hours ago, KhunLA said:

War with RU and now CH ... 🤣

 

Been hearing and reading about that war, well ... forever.  Still waiting 

Can't possibly   be " forever".

China , has only recently emerged as a challenge to American hegemony . In fact there are those who think China is not ready yet.

They seem to be getting ready now , so now is the time to worry.

   I hope they find a way to coexist in a way that is equitable to both sides. Perhaps a negotiated Special status for Taiwan and  cooperative access to the resource  necessary for the health of both systems. 

 

4 hours ago, JeffersLos said:

And then loses to them.

 

Vietnam.

Afghanistan. 

To determine if the lost is to determine what losing and winning is and what they ere treeing to accomplish . IMO they could not care less about who runs the country , or how the people of that country live as long as that country plays ball or id adversarial is rendered incapable of playing any kind of ball. 

  So did they lose in Vietnam? They lost the fight but did they lose the war? If their war was against the domination of communism then obviously they so far have won. , 

  Afghanistan the same , They want them to play ball since they did not seem to want to play ball , they took their ball away. , seems to be working so far. so did they lose? Is Afghanistan a threat? 

2 hours ago, sirineou said:

Can't possibly   be " forever".

China , has only recently emerged as a challenge to American hegemony . In fact there are those who think China is not ready yet.

They seem to be getting ready now , so now is the time to worry.

Hence the 'now CH' part of my post.

CH & USA's economies are too intertwined to disrupt with a war.  Nothing but rhetoric fluff for the defense contractors to get more tax dollars.

 

Doom & Gloom = profits

I am more concerned about the enemies within the US than without. 

11 hours ago, sirineou said:

Unfortunately you are right 

but nobody here seems to be talking about this and I wonder if many people are even aware of the issue .

 

 

 

It has been brewing for years now, since 1949 really, the 100 year marathon has another 26 years to achieve it's goal!

If there's gonna be a WW3, get it over with. I'm too old to fight and my kids are too young. Call me selfish, but I couldn't think of anything worse than sending your kids off to war.

Just start it tomorrow and get it done and dusted.

2 hours ago, sipi said:

If there's gonna be a WW3, get it over with. I'm too old to fight and my kids are too young. Call me selfish, but I couldn't think of anything worse than sending your kids off to war.

Just start it tomorrow and get it done and dusted.

I don't think there will be a WW3 I think there will be a conflict to secure strategic assets and address real and perceived existential dangers. Such as a change in the alignment of Taiwan "  naval superiority in areas such as the straights of Malacca, where one third of the worlds trade crosses. Then they would settle in a cold war concentrating on denial of assets.   

22 hours ago, KhunLA said:

Hence the 'now CH' part of my post.

CH & USA's economies are too intertwined to disrupt with a war.  Nothing but rhetoric fluff for the defense contractors to get more tax dollars.

 

Doom & Gloom = profits

As big a market as the US might be it still only comprises about 16% of Chinese exports and I think (someone please corrected) about 4% of Chinese GDP . Though significant certainly it's loss not catastrophic . Also keep in mind that not all this trade will go away even in an event of a hot war and then a cold war, A percentage of it will still find it's way into the US via intermediaries. That of course will make these trade items more expensive, but since the US imports more from China than it exports. it would hurt the US more than it will do China, 

So News concerning preparation for such event.

Of course the creation of the BRICS plock and the move away from the dollar as the worlds reserve. 

"$18,500,000,000 in US Treasuries Sold by BRICS Trio of China, India and Brazil in One Month "

https://dailyhodl.com/2023/10/22/18500000000-in-us-treasuries-sold-by-brics-trio-of-china-india-and-brazil-in-one-month/

3 hours ago, sipi said:

If there's gonna be a WW3, get it over with. I'm too old to fight and my kids are too young. Call me selfish, but I couldn't think of anything worse than sending your kids off to war.

Just start it tomorrow and get it done and dusted.

I can

I think the US is at it's relative weakest point in my lifetime.

On 10/22/2023 at 3:09 AM, sirineou said:

Unfortunately you are right 

but nobody here seems to be talking about this and I wonder if many people are even aware of the issue .

 

 

 

I have been aware for a long time; longer than most, but I'm very cynical and see the bad guys more easily than others might.

The western world, or rather the rich western people that sought to get even richer by dumping western workers and exploiting Chinese workers to make more profit, has been turning a blind eye to the threat, IMO, and doing nothing about it. Consider NZ that needs China for a large portion of it's overseas income in exchange for food exports- I doubt NZ will be eager to bite the hand that feeds it, and NZ has run it's military down to the point of insignificance.

 

Is it ironic that China became a great power with western money and using western technology that western industrialists handed over to be able to operate in China?

 

I have no strategy to deal with it myself other than hoping I'm dead before NZ has to hang out the "Welcome China overlords" sign.

 

However, had I been still living in Thailand, I'd be prepared to leave at any time, and have a plan as how to leave.

I did that in Saudi, but I never had to activate my plan.

On 10/23/2023 at 11:01 AM, sipi said:

If there's gonna be a WW3, get it over with. I'm too old to fight and my kids are too young. Call me selfish, but I couldn't think of anything worse than sending your kids off to war.

Just start it tomorrow and get it done and dusted.

Sorry, but if you think WW3 won't make your kids suffer I think you are misinformed.

Likely that even if they survived, the world they were born into will no longer exist. What replaces it I know not, but for sure it won't be as good for western people as the one we have now, and even this one is rotten unless one is rich.

On 10/22/2023 at 2:35 AM, Morch said:

We are all doomed.

 

Seriously, why worry? What can you do? How do you prepare for something like that? I don't fancy investing in a fallout shelter (and will probably arrive faulty from Lazada). Same for going survivalist/militia style - it's fine for a week or so, max. Guess I'm too lazy to try and survive in a post-apocalyptic world. Best I can think of is stocking some of one's favorite bottles, and having a peaceful place to have them while waiting for the inevitable.

 

If it's just one of them regular conventional wars, then either move money to safer location/mode when things heat up, stock on some essentials, and log on here to argue and rant about it. The bottles mentioned above will come handy as well. And who knows, Thailand might even come out ahead after such a war, being on the sideline and all that. Probably safer than many other places here.

 

 

Interesting post worth commenting on.

 

If it's just one of them regular conventional wars, then either move money to safer location/mode when things heat up, stock on some essentials, and log on here to argue and rant about it.

 

Likely in any such war the internet will be the first casualty, as one needs to disrupt the enemies communications.

 

Same for going survivalist/militia style - it's fine for a week or so, max. Guess I'm too lazy to try and survive in a post-apocalyptic world.

 

For those that never served that would be true, but for those that did, likely we learned the skills needed to survive amidst destruction. I did a survival course in the Malayan jungle that gave me to skills to survive in any wild area that has animals to feed on, provided I have some essential tools to do so. Some Japanese soldiers survived in jungles after Japan lost for many years.

 

However, in the event of a major war, would I even want to survive if we didn't win in the end? I suspect not

 

I doubt if the nuclear option will be used, except as a last resort, as it's not called MAD without good reason.

 

16 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Sorry, but if you think WW3 won't make your kids suffer I think you are misinformed.

Likely that even if they survived, the world they were born into will no longer exist. What replaces it I know not, but for sure it won't be as good for western people as the one we have now, and even this one is rotten unless one is rich.

It's gonna happen eventually. Just get it done with.

Just now, sipi said:

It's gonna happen eventually. Just get it done with.

No matter how demented a leader is, unless actually insane they won't start a big war as everyone loses in a big war. Hitler invaded Russia but he was actually insane, IMO.

I suspect it'll be more local wars such as a war involving Iran and the US along the Iraq lines, or like the Vietnam War, or the Afghanistan war. Big wars that make the 1% even richer, but don't destroy everything.

As long as the mob have their phones, their social media and a celebrity culture I doubt they will rebel too much.

Of course, Taiwan may prove to be a catalyst for a really big war, but that's unknown at this stage. With any luck they have the means to stop China even getting to invade. Apparently nothing can stop hypersonic anti ship missiles.

8 minutes ago, sipi said:

It's gonna happen eventually. Just get it done with.

I'd agree with you, except nukes changed war between major powers for ever.

15 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I'd agree with you, except nukes changed war between major powers for ever.

Yeah unfortunately.

What do we do?