Israel is at War - General discussion (pt2)

[Neeranam]

19 hours ago, Morch said:

 

The link above is based on another article appearing in an Israeli newspaper. The original article relates that this is not so much a government plan, or even a party plan, let alone something the IDF endorses - but something Netanyahu seems to have initiated on his own. Given the USA and the EU are unlikely to support or be party to it, and not much enthusiasm on the domestic front either, unlikely it would amount to nothing more than a diplomatic debacle.

This is the only comment I see replying to my link. 

 

Do you think the USA should immediately stop all weapons supply to Netanyahu and political support on the moral issues of this ethnic cleansing stance? I do, I wonder what other Israelis think of this. 

[Morch]

5 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

One question, do you think Netanyahu should be fired/tried for this strategic ethnic cleansing plan?

 

@Neeranam

 

I'd say get in line - there are a whole lot of reasons already that would merit him leaving or being kicked out of office, and tried.

In fact, his court cases just resumed, much to the chagrin of lick-spittle supporters.

[Neeranam]

1 minute ago, Morch said:

 

@Neeranam

 

I'd say get in line - there are a whole lot of reasons already that would merit him leaving or being kicked out of office, and tried.

In fact, his court cases just resumed, much to the chagrin of lick-spittle supporters.

 Sorry, do you personally think he should be fire and tried?

[Morch]

2 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

This is the only comment I see replying to my link. 

 

Do you think the USA should immediately stop all weapons supply to Netanyahu and political support on the moral issues of this ethnic cleansing stance? I do, I wonder what other Israelis think of this. 

 

@Neeranam

 

I'm not responsible for what you pretend not to see. I'm not responsible for who you put on 'ignore'. That's on you. The fact is that the issue was already discussed (probably on parallel topics as well), your silly games notwithstanding.

 

I don't think that the USA takes it very seriously, because it knows the score. There is no love for Netanyahu in the White House. Politics do not always follow morals - as would be apparent from USA dealings with China, Saudi Arabia and so on. Pretty much the same for all countries. I'm sure you thought you had a point there. Maybe next time.

[Morch]

1 minute ago, Neeranam said:

 Sorry, do you personally think he should be fire and tried?

 

@Neeranam

 

Refer to my past posts on Netanyahu. You will not find many that aren't a negative take of the man, his policies and conduct.

There is no actual way for him to be 'fired' over this, same goes for 'tried' - you got your answer already, stop trolling.

[Nick Carter icp]

17 minutes ago, Morch said:

 

I would venture these aren't 'proper' Hamas men. At least not the  'elite' ones. No much semblance of uniforms, not all are armed, even (I think).

Doesn't make the act any better, obviously.

But yeah....kinda lame handling there, could have just tied her up and get going.

 

   Like, would you employ these guys if you wanted a piano moved downstairs , they seem completely incompetent .

   If you were moving house , would you employ these guys if they had a removal company ?

[BigStar]

4 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

What many of us also suspected of course:

 

FROM AFP NEWS
US Says Hamas Did Not Want Women Hostages To Reveal Treatment

A deal to pause the Gaza war broke down in part because Hamas militants did not want Israeli women hostages to reveal what happened to them, a US official said Monday.

"It seems one of the reasons they don't want to turn women over that they've been holding hostage and the reason this pause fell apart is they don't want those women to be able to talk about what happened to them during their time in custody," State Department spokesman Matthew Miller told reporters.

Miller, citing sensitivities in discussing treatment of captives, declined to give details but said that the United States had "no reason to doubt" reports of sexual violence by Hamas.

https://www.barrons.com/news/us-says-hamas-did-not-want-women-hostages-to-reveal-treatment-b3f23cb7?refsec=topics_afp-news

 

I believe that. The women they refused to release are almost all younger women:

 

The captives include Ofra Keidar and Judy Weinstein, both 70 years old, as well as Romi Leshem Gonen (23), Eden Yerushalmi (24), Liri Elbag (18), Daniela Gilboa (19), Karina Ariev (19), Noa Argamani (26), Inbar Heiman (27), Emily Demari (27), Arbel Yahud (28), Agam Berger (19), Naama Levy (19), Amit Buskila (28), Eden Zakaria (28), Doron Steinbracher (30), Shiri Bibas (32), and Carmel Gat (39).

     --https://www.ynetnews.com/article/byurydvb6

 

The horrific videos of Noa Argamani and Naama Levy being kidnapped were widely circulated, both attractive women. Naama Levy was shown being hauled out of the back of a Jeep SUV and shoved into the back seat. Her pants were blooded from rapes and her Achilles heel slashed.

 

[Bkk Brian]

53 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

Netanyahu wants to 'thin out' Gaza by pushing population into the sea:  

https://www.middleeasteye.net/live-blog/live-blog-update/netanyahu-wants-thin-out-gazas-population-pushing-them-sea-report

@Neeranam what is it with you? Your links stink but then again for a Hamas supporter its little wonder.

 

Middle East Monitor promotes a strongly pro-Muslim Brotherhood and pro-Hamas viewpoint. Anshel Pfeffer described MEMO as a “conspiracy theory-peddling anti-Israel organisation”.

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/middle-east-monitor/

[novacova]

“Report: Traders in the Know Shorted Israeli Stocks Just before the October 7 Hamas Massacre. 

Two distinguished American researchers, Prof. Robert J. Jackson, Jr. of New York University, and Prof. Joshua Mitts of Columbia University, on Sunday published an extensive report titled, “Trading on Terror?” that suggests someone profited from the planned Hamas attack on Israeli civilians on October 7, through what appears to be a bet on a fall in the value of Israeli companies on the New York Stock Exchange and the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange. Their study indicates a very likely possibility that the information that led to these transactions shorting Israeli stocks had come from Hamas.“

 

 

https://www.jewishpress.com/news/business-economy/report-traders-in-the-know-shorted-israeli-stocks-just-before-the-october-7-hamas-massacre/2023/12/04/

[Jingthing]

5 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Vile and horrific

 

7 Hamas terrorists vs 1 Israeli woman.

They are not only terrorists, but also cowards.

 

 

Barbaric scum

[Jingthing]

7 minutes ago, Eloquent pilgrim said:

 

Stop trolling people, and try and add something constructive 

Ain't gonna happen

[simple1]

16 hours ago, Morch said:

 

The article, or rather the article its based on does a good job detailing some of the inner workings of the IDF operations centers. I would be careful accepting it as gospel (yeah...well), given the original sources political stance, and by extension the sort of people who would volunteer the information to it. To be clear, I do not argue against the details, but against the hyperbole presentation and use of loaded language.

 

There is no doubt that a significant part of Israel's campaign is about shock and awe. This was broadcasted in various statements by politicians and generals. And unless mistaken, even the 'relaxing' of constraints in the targeting process was acknowledged. The mistake some people seem to make is to treat this is another iteration of previous rounds of fighting between Israel and the Hamas. It is not. The Hamas 7/10 attack 'broke the mold', and the Israeli response is in turn way more severe. The constant comparisons to past instances is irrelevant.

 

I think highlighting the AI angle is more sensational than rational. Targets are decided according to sets of parameters and algorithms, which are controlled and can be adjusted. So as it stands now, it's a facilitating process, not one totally independent of human control. As far as I am aware, stuff like this (technologically speaking) was where things were heading for some years now, and it's not like the transition was a sharp one exactly - shifts as the technology matured and embedded. And here's one (of several, to be sure) outrageous comments - this will actually work well for Israel if and when things come to a head legally. The bonus of such a system is that everything is recorded, rational for decisions made, expected results and so on. It allows to present a rational for attack made, without need to go and pick the mind of some reserve duty officer on a specific decision made in day X of the war. This relates to my earlier comment on the reliability (IMO) of some of the people leaking the information - I would expect some of their takes to be effected by their politics (and that's ok, btw).

 

Given it's a published fact that the IDF relies heavily on legal advice at command/operations/planning levels - I would also expect that issues raised, such as knowing expected civilian casualty rates for each target (as in 'collateral damage') would be found to fall within the legal acceptable parameters. That does not necessarily make such decisions the height of morality or anything (which seems to be what the some of the quoted comments focus on). In other words, the increase in target numbers, and targets attacked does not necessarily imply that there will be more legal issues, if and when such challenges will materialize. Again, it may sound crude, but that's the way all modern armies operate - assessing civilian casualties, deciding whether this justifies the attack and so on is part and parcel of how warfare is conducted these days. So the more information available, the better the rational could be supported, as needed.

 

I will add something about 'proportionality'. This is an elusive concept at the best of times, all the more so under current circumstances. If going back to the shock and awe thing, then 'proportionality' can be interpreted not as tit-for-tat, but as a formula in which the scale is not balanced. Still a proportion, though. And this is not offered as mere word game. Consider the Hamas demanded/previously applied 'ratio of exchange' with regard to hostages. One Israeli for hundreds, a thousand, or even thousands of Palestinians. Not very 'proportional', is it? But somehow expected and accepted as a legit proposition. So, I think, it's not so much about balance - but more to do with perceptions. Who's the 'weak' side, who's the 'strong' and all that crap. But when it comes to casualties, somehow this 'exchange ratio' is not on, why? Using available figures, the current death toll ratio is more or less 10:1. That is ten dead Palestinian vs. each Israeli killed. Much lower than the hostage/prisoners 'exchange ratio'. What does it mean?

 

And while on the subject of proportionality, ratios and perceptions - various figures presented on multiple links here imply that the number of sorties carried by the IAF, the number of bomb/munitions dropped on the Gaza Strip, and the total number of Palestinian casualties are roughly similar. That would imply one bomb/sortie per casualty. I don't know what people have in mind when they talk about 'genocide', 'ethnic cleansing', 'mass murder', or 'assassination factory' (and so on) - but what Israel is doing doesn't quite seem to conform with the notions of how one goes about these things. Even if the number are off some, its still not it. A lot of dead people yes, a lot of them civilians, no argument. The descriptions applied on these topics left and right - not so much.

Thanks for the time you've invested in the above; as you know I do respect your knowledge concerning Israeli / Arab issues. Just on the issue of allegations of Israeli "genocide" it is not a stance I concur with. After all the words I still cannot fathom what Hamas were expecting to achieve. Concerning civilian casualty rates I assume the Israeli War Cabinet makes the decision on numbers political acceptable or not. With the IDF leaving no place untouched in Gaza one assumes the death ratio between Israelis and Gazans in the current conflict will significantly increase.

 

So far as I know there is nothing in the public space talking to 'what next' when the Israelis achieve their declared objective: thoughts?

[placeholder]

14 minutes ago, simple1 said:

Thanks for the time you've invested in the above; as you know I do respect your knowledge concerning Israeli / Arab issues. Just on the issue of allegations of Israeli "genocide" it is not a stance I concur with. After all the words I still cannot fathom what Hamas were expecting to achieve. Concerning civilian casualty rates I assume the Israeli War Cabinet makes the decision on numbers political acceptable or not. With the IDF leaving no place untouched in Gaza one assumes the death ratio between Israelis and Gazans in the current conflict will significantly increase.

 

So far as I know there is nothing in the public space talking to 'what next' when the Israelis achieve their declared objective: thoughts?

In Israel, the number of dead Gazans, or, for that matter, dead Palestinians, that would be politically acceptable is not even an issue for most Israelis. 'The only constituency whose backing the Israeli govt is concerned about is Joe Biden. And he seems to have painted himself into a corner with his enthusiastic embrace of the Israeli govt's response.

[Jeff the Chef]

Josh Paul, a State Department official who resigned over the transfer of arms to Israel, talks to Christiane Amanpour about what led him to leave his job.

 

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/tv/2023/12/04/amanpour-state-epartment-official-resignation-josh-paul.cnn

[Jingthing]

49 minutes ago, Jeff the Chef said:

Josh Paul, a State Department official who resigned over the transfer of arms to Israel, talks to Christiane Amanpour about what led him to leave his job.

 

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/tv/2023/12/04/amanpour-state-epartment-official-resignation-josh-paul.cnn

Glad to see him gone.

[Morch]

1 hour ago, simple1 said:

Thanks for the time you've invested in the above; as you know I do respect your knowledge concerning Israeli / Arab issues. Just on the issue of allegations of Israeli "genocide" it is not a stance I concur with. After all the words I still cannot fathom what Hamas were expecting to achieve. Concerning civilian casualty rates I assume the Israeli War Cabinet makes the decision on numbers political acceptable or not. With the IDF leaving no place untouched in Gaza one assumes the death ratio between Israelis and Gazans in the current conflict will significantly increase.

 

So far as I know there is nothing in the public space talking to 'what next' when the Israelis achieve their declared objective: thoughts?

 

Hamas wanted to 'change the equation'. It managed that, but maybe not the way intended.

 

I don't know, exactly how things are decided regarding 'accepted' casualty rates, under the current War Cabinet. Ordinarily, the government would only be directing the IDF on a general level, based on reviews and projections presented by the IDF and intelligence bodies. This War Cabinet, though, includes two former IDF chiefs-of-staff and an-almost-chief-of-staff (the current Minister of Defense) - so in one way they might be more hands on (especially with the current IDF chief-of-staff position being compromised following the attack), while also being familiar with how the IDF works and what briefings actually mean. 

 

On the military level, there's quite a lot legal advisors hanging about, giving input as to how legit attacks are in terms of international law. Obviously, it is still early to know if the legal take applied would be acceptable in case things will be brought under inquiry and go to court. I don't think that, right now, there's a whole lot of goodwill, brotherly love or even empathy in the 'collateral damage' department. Some yes, but not the underlying sentiment, especially in light of 7/10. The motivation is more defensive - as in providing legal protection for IDF personnel, and the country as a whole.

 

Latest maps I saw (a version from a week ago or so appears on these topics) demonstrate that 'no place untouched' is more of a catchphrase than reality. Even more so with regard to areas designated as safe-zones. That said, the destruction is certainly wide spread and the casualty lists are growing longer.

 

As for the death ratio, see my previous post and the first line of this one.

 

You are mostly correct with the  'day after' observation. There are no good solution for this, or a solution that could easily be acceptable to parties involved. Discussing it with the Israeli political system is problematic at the moment - as it may lead to the dissolution of the ad-hoc wartime government. As usual, right-wing hardliners either concentrate on what they do not want to happen, and/or air fantasy solutions which are unlikely to go anywhere. While it is not premature to discuss things, it is still to early to know how the situation in the Gaza Strip will pan out. Hence major issues like whether Hamas is present at the time, are yet to be decided. 

 

IMO, there's little for Israel to gain (under any situation) from prolonged military presence in the Gaza Strip after operations end. Israel should re-establish a no-go zone along the border (on the Gazan side), re-install surveillance systems etc. and pay more attention in the future. Ideally, the Gaza Strip would be administrated by the PA (but maybe with Abbas out, or Dahlan brought in from the cold), security by an international force with troops from non-silly countries.

 

Longer term, there are more issues involved - how Israeli politics would shape up, whether things will heat up in the West Bank  (or Southern Lebanon), how the PA will fare and what things will be like in the Gaza Strip. In an ideal world (again...), there would be some meaningful international sponsored drive toward reaching a permanent agreement. In reality, maybe not in the cards given the political situation within each of the involved parties or even globally.

[Morch]

1 hour ago, placeholder said:

In Israel, the number of dead Gazans, or, for that matter, dead Palestinians, that would be politically acceptable is not even an issue for most Israelis. 'The only constituency whose backing the Israeli govt is concerned about is Joe Biden. And he seems to have painted himself into a corner with his enthusiastic embrace of the Israeli govt's response.

 

Whereas the Palestinian feel deeply about Israeli victims of the 7/10 attack, and rationally try their best to figure out an alternative strategy to the Hamas's.

 

[placeholder]

Just now, Morch said:

 

Whereas the Palestinian feel deeply about Israeli victims of the 7/10 attack, and rationally try their best to figure out an alternative strategy to the Hamas's.

 

More deflection from you. I never made nor implied such a claim. Simply pointing out that simple1's claim about the political implications with Israel of Palestinian deaths are pretty much nonexistent for the present Israeli government.

[Morch]

Just now, placeholder said:

More deflection from you. I never made nor implied such a claim. Simply pointing out that simple1's claim about the political implications with Israel of Palestinian deaths are pretty much nonexistent for the present Israeli government.

 

No deflection. Not the first such comment that you made.

 

And you're oversimplifying things:

 

Consider that as current Israeli politics go, a Center-Left government would almost certainly need to rely on the support of Arab parties (whether as part of government or not). This will be politically problematic for Arab politicians even as it is. The flip side is that such rifts would benefit Netanyahu's interests.

 

Consider this as well - there are signs that Netanyahu's career is on the line (ratings, court cases resuming, international pariah when the war is over, image tarnished some even with the base). If he wants to walk away, cut a deal on his cases and so on, might be a tad problematic to have the ICC on his tale. Not something the psycho wife and son would appreciate.

 

The same goes for the Centrist ad-hoc members of the War Cabinet. While they are (theoretically) poised well to replace Netanyahu if the opportunity arises, they still carry the responsibility for actions taken by Israel. This may effect their situation as well.

 

None of this got a whole lot to do with feelings of remorse, empathy, goodwill, and so on.

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, Jingthing said:

You're just flaming.

He's deflecting from the pre planned rapes of so many by Hamas. That's what's sick.

 

Hamas planned sexual violence as weapon of war - Israeli campaigner

Hamas had a premeditated plan to use sexual violence as a weapon of war, an Israeli women's rights campaigner and lawyer has said. Prof Ruth Halperin-Kaddari said she saw footage of women in several locations whose condition left her in "no doubt" that they had been raped.

Warning: This article contains graphic details which some readers may find upsetting

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67613153

[Rimmer]

Some off topic posts and replies removed also unattributed

Please see our Community Standards

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, Morch said:

 

No deflection. Not the first such comment that you made.

 

And you're oversimplifying things:

 

Consider that as current Israeli politics go, a Center-Left government would almost certainly need to rely on the support of Arab parties (whether as part of government or not). This will be politically problematic for Arab politicians even as it is. The flip side is that such rifts would benefit Netanyahu's interests.

 

Consider this as well - there are signs that Netanyahu's career is on the line (ratings, court cases resuming, international pariah when the war is over, image tarnished some even with the base). If he wants to walk away, cut a deal on his cases and so on, might be a tad problematic to have the ICC on his tale. Not something the psycho wife and son would appreciate.

 

The same goes for the Centrist ad-hoc members of the War Cabinet. While they are (theoretically) poised well to replace Netanyahu if the opportunity arises, they still carry the responsibility for actions taken by Israel. This may effect their situation as well.

 

None of this got a whole lot to do with feelings of remorse, empathy, goodwill, and so on.

You really think ijt's likely that a government pursuing a softer line against the Palestinians has any chance of winning? Or, for that matter that Netanyahu is likely to be replaced anytime soon? The political composition of the Knesset and the question of who would replace him make that far from inevitable.

Israelis Are Angry at Netanyahu, but Chances of His Ouster Are Slim

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/02/world/middleeast/israel-netanyahu-hamas-war.html#:~:text=Mr. Netanyahu's coalition currently holds,selected to replace Mr. Netanyahu.

https://archive.ph/tNVFw

[Danderman123]

3 hours ago, Neeranam said:

One question, do you think Netanyahu should be fired/tried for this strategic ethnic cleansing plan?

only if he tries to implement it.

[Morch]

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

You really think ijt's likely that a government pursuing a softer line against the Palestinians has any chance of winning? Or, for that matter that Netanyahu is likely to be replaced anytime soon? The political composition of the Knesset and the question of who would replace him make that far from inevitable.

Israelis Are Angry at Netanyahu, but Chances of His Ouster Are Slim

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/02/world/middleeast/israel-netanyahu-hamas-war.html#:~:text=Mr. Netanyahu's coalition currently holds,selected to replace Mr. Netanyahu.

https://archive.ph/tNVFw

 

I really think that we have discussed this already.

 

There was nothing said about Netanyahu being replaced currently, at present, or next week. Won't happen (though it would have been nice...). I don't think that as long as the fighting is on he'll be seriously challenged, even. It would be detrimental to Israel's security interests to have a major political crisis at this time - adding coalition partners in wartime is one thing, dissolving the parliament is another.

 

But when the fighting is over, I expect the anti-government protests will resume - with a vengeance. Netanyahu himself, or the right wing politicians in his coalition will probably not step down or anything. Cannot afford to. But all it really takes are a few coalition members to cross the line, or even abstain. There are potential candidates for such a move, and I don't think it's that far-fetched. There's constant talk about that for months now - suppose it would be even more of a thing down the line. Again, maybe more to do with political self preservation.

 

i said nothing about 'inevitable'.

[Morch]

Israel Weighs Plan to Flood Gaza Tunnels With Seawater

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/israel-weighs-plan-to-flood-gaza-tunnels-with-seawater/ar-AA1kZZ0F

 

I don't know what to make of that - which pretty much sums the article as well. A whole lot of different issues involved.

My guess is that this would have been more effective before the bombing campaign, now maybe less so.

 

 

[Jeff the Chef]

The corruption trial of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel resumed on Monday, bringing back into focus the legal and political challenges he faces even as he presides over the Israeli military’s war against Hamas in Gaza.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/04/world/middleeast/netanyahu-corruption-trial.html

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, Jeff the Chef said:

The corruption trial of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel resumed on Monday, bringing back into focus the legal and political challenges he faces even as he presides over the Israeli military’s war against Hamas in Gaza.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/04/world/middleeast/netanyahu-corruption-trial.html

And..............

[Bkk Brian]

Seems there were Hamas spies involved in the planning............

 

Among documents recovered from Hamas terrorists who carried out the terror attack on October 7 was a thorough map of an Israeli military base which could only have been drawn using “inside knowledge” – almost certainly from a Hamas spy.

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/by5cou2hp

 

If true, let hops the IDF has rooted these animals out.

[Danderman123]

12 minutes ago, Morch said:

Israel Weighs Plan to Flood Gaza Tunnels With Seawater

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/israel-weighs-plan-to-flood-gaza-tunnels-with-seawater/ar-AA1kZZ0F

 

I don't know what to make of that - which pretty much sums the article as well. A whole lot of different issues involved.

My guess is that this would have been more effective before the bombing campaign, now maybe less so.

 

 

Apparently, the equipment for this has not been brought into the area - yet.

[Bkk Brian]

12 minutes ago, Morch said:

Israel Weighs Plan to Flood Gaza Tunnels With Seawater

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/israel-weighs-plan-to-flood-gaza-tunnels-with-seawater/ar-AA1kZZ0F

 

I don't know what to make of that - which pretty much sums the article as well. A whole lot of different issues involved.

My guess is that this would have been more effective before the bombing campaign, now maybe less so.

 

 

 

The son of one of Hamas' cofounders, Mosab Hassan Yousef suggested that Israel should “explore using gas” to rid underground tunnels in Gaza of Hamas......??