Despite Washington’s confidence, US war with Iran would be disastrous

[roquefort]

9 minutes ago, ezzra said:

Iran is a puppet master who has it's fingers in every trouble spot around the world either directly or by proxy and they aren't hiding it, so the sooner Iran's mullahs will be gone the better and if it's mean war than so be it because this is how its works in this world... 

.....or doesn't work, as the US wars for the last 50 years have shown.

[Dcheech]

5 hours ago, CharlieH said:

For instance, on Nov. 26, Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) said the Biden administration needs to take a “massive retaliation” against Iran to end attacks on U.S. assets. Ultimately, congressmembers, the Biden administration, and former defense officials are all sharing sentiments that Washington could escalate its move toward armed conflict in the face of Iranian aggression.

 

Tom Cotton (republican) is a serious nut case, in a party chock full of crazies. That is saying something. A hard core Trumper to boot. Yet this news article claims this numpty speaks the sanme as  Biden & his administration. What a pile of steaming buffalo chips. 

A week into this war, Slow Joe warned Bibi the US would not support an attack on Iran. He would not stop Bibi from doing it but the US would not support and would distance themselves from it and Israel . 

Yet here they are tossing opinions up as news, and it gets posted as news here. Garf. . 

[ezzra]

7 minutes ago, roquefort said:

.....or doesn't work, as the US wars for the last 50 years have shown.

Not all wars fulfil their purpose but if you look back, wars were fought through out history, some with good results, others not so much but in some situation wars are a must and the way to go...

[Hawaiian]

1 hour ago, Presnock said:

Same thoughts about the Afghani'... In Iran 1989- same thing...the Shah wasn't his oldself, at that time women had total freedom, were going to college free, free medical etc...they traded that so that those priests in exile (France) could come back and make women be slaves again!  got what they deserve for sure but now the rest of the world will be having bigger problems with the Iranians...just wait, like "little rocket man" once he got nukes...Chinese lost any control they had over him.

 

The last time a military general tried to disobey the politicos, (MacArthur) check out what happened to that WWII hero.  Austin can only bow down to the President and the Congress.

I know how it is supposed to work.  Only Congress can declare war and the president is the one to wage war.  Right now Congress is almost dysfunctional with the House passing a bill and the Senate shooting it down and visa versa.  The President says one thing and his aides turn around and say just the opposite. 

As far as defense issues go, it seems most of the statements are coming from Austin or his spokespeople.  This is why I have inferred he is calling the shots even though he officially lacks the authority to do so.  This ambiguity is sending a signal to our enemies that the right hand may not know what the right hand is doing. They are testing the waters to see how far they can go before the we act.

Edited December 4, 2023 by Hawaiian
clarification

[Srikcir]

6 hours ago, CharlieH said:

reflect a fundamental miscalculation of Iran’s military strength.

Like Russia's miscalculation of Ukraine's military strength? Iran military is nowhere near Russia's military strength which is being beaten down by Ukraine using largely surplus NATO/US military supplies. Does Iran really want to escalate to the extent of direct US military confrontation? 

[Jingthing]

Neither side wants a full war. Proxy actions are par for the course. Yes it could happen accidentally but so could anything. Perhaps the countries that most want a US - Iran war where Iran is crushed would be Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Edited December 4, 2023 by Jingthing

[thaibeachlovers]

56 minutes ago, billd766 said:

Will YOU be the first to volunteer to go to a war that nobody wants, and put YOUR body in harms way?

 

Or are you happy enough to be a keyboard warrior and let others stop the bullets instead of you?

There is a lot of that on this forum. Keyboard warriors slavering to send other people to die.

[nobodysfriend]

6 hours ago, CharlieH said:

there are only two real paths for Washington to directly attack Iran: an air and naval campaign designed to impose significant costs on the regime; or a ground invasion dependent on establishing air and naval superiority

 

One more war ...?

Just what is needed now ...

Mad world , crazy people .

[PingRoundTheWorld]

Complete nonsense. While the US shouldn't provoke a war with Iran, it's actually Iran that's been testing the waters with more provocations from Iran-backed militias, exactly because Iran fears an all-out war with the US. I don't think the US should directly attack Iran at this point, but more actions need to be taken against those militia and the Houthis in particular need to go. Either way comparing US military might to Iran's is ridiculous because they are orders of magnitude apart.  It's kind of like comparing Hamas and their RPGs and inaccurate rockets to Israel's coordinated land, air, and sea forces - it's not a question of if they lose, it's just a question of how long it takes.

 

Hopefully it won't come to that (a war with Iran), but if it does the US needs to promptly and decidely crush the Islamists and install a new government. The will of the people is already there - it's just a matter of helping them make it happen.

[thaibeachlovers]

56 minutes ago, billd766 said:

Will YOU be the first to volunteer to go to a war that nobody wants, and put YOUR body in harms way?

 

Or are you happy enough to be a keyboard warrior and let others stop the bullets instead of you?

There is a lot of that on this forum. Keyboard warriors slavering to send other people to die.

[Jingthing]

5 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

There is a lot of that on this forum. Keyboard warriors slavering to send other people to die.

Sometimes war is necessary.

Right now, both Ukraine and Israel are fighting existential wars.

[nobodysfriend]

10 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Sometimes war is necessary.

Right now, both Ukraine and Israel are fighting existential wars.

 

Nobody really threatens Israel's existence . Only verbal threats , but not real threats like armed invasion or bombing .

With Israels military superiority , it would be suicidal .

Russia threatens Ukraine's existence ,

Not the same story at all ...

Edited December 4, 2023 by nobodysfriend

[beautifulthailand99]

These 2 events were a severe wake-up call as to Iran's capabilities in the new era and the US projection of hegemonic power. They put long-range missiles onto a US base with pinpoint accuracy defeating AD systems on a US military base and setting 5% of their oil reserves on fire. Then add Russia to the mix with satellite intelligence off the scale of mad. Cheap drones are a real game changer - Ukraine has been the theatre where a lot of lessons will have been learnt.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Martyr_Soleimani

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abqaiq–Khurais_attack

 

Oil would go to the moon and global economies would crash. Buy gold now if you think that could happen expensive as it is.

Edited December 4, 2023 by beautifulthailand99

[spidermike007]

3 hours ago, Morch said:

While i do not think a war with Iran would be a walk in the park, I do recall similar commentary made before the USA wiped the floor with Iraq's armed forces. People do not really get just how powerful the USA military is, especially when gloves are off. There's a reason even hardcore USA adversaries are weary crossing some lines.

 

Well sometimes the results of the war are easy to read, and sometimes the results of a war take decades to understand. Iraq and Afghanistan are both great examples of that. Trillions of dollars spent, hundreds of thousands of lives lost, and what was the net gain?

 

Where is Iraq now? And Afghanistan? The same thing applies to Iran. Let's just say we got rid of the Ayatollah and the extremists within the government, where would Iran be then? Would it become a magic democracy overnight, or would there be decades of blowback? 

[Jingthing]

4 minutes ago, nobodysfriend said:

 

Nobody threatens Israel's existence .

Russia threatens Ukraine's existence ,

Not the same story at all ...

Not the same story.

But you're wrong about Israel.

If you're saying Israel currently has the resources to fight off the forces that want to annihilate them, then that is true.

[Morch]

24 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

 

Well sometimes the results of the war are easy to read, and sometimes the results of a war take decades to understand. Iraq and Afghanistan are both great examples of that. Trillions of dollars spent, hundreds of thousands of lives lost, and what was the net gain?

 

Where is Iraq now? And Afghanistan? The same thing applies to Iran. Let's just say we got rid of the Ayatollah and the extremists within the government, where would Iran be then? Would it become a magic democracy overnight, or would there be decades of blowback? 

 

Addressed a similar comment earlier in the topic. As far as what happens afterwards - USA 'interventions' tend to fail. Maybe it's not about the USA per se, but how these things are destined to go. But inasmuch as this topic was more focused about the military side of things, I think my comment stands.

[billd766]

55 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

There is a lot of that on this forum. Keyboard warriors slavering to send other people to die.

I think that many of them have only experienced a war as a computer game with a reset button.

[Hawaiian]

59 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Neither side wants a full war. Proxy actions are par for the course. Yes it could happen accidentally but so could anything. Perhaps the countries that most want a US - Iran war where Iran is crushed would be Israel and Saudi Arabia.

The Saudi's maybe looking to the day when they join the U.S. in confronting Iran. They have a sizable and capable air force and are now modernizing their navy with more advanced ships of varying types.

[JackGats]

Bombing strategic military sites in a one-week special operation, then leave the Mullahs to be taken care of by their own discontented population? Easier said than done though. Also, the discontent within the population may be overestimated. Not long ago we saw women demonstrating against the dress-code police, but some of us old enough may remember Iranian women veiled head to foot demonstrating against the Shah (in support of the Mullahs). Western media don't do propaganda. Instead they do wishful thinking by cherry-picking their news angles.

[Hawaiian]

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

 

Well sometimes the results of the war are easy to read, and sometimes the results of a war take decades to understand. Iraq and Afghanistan are both great examples of that. Trillions of dollars spent, hundreds of thousands of lives lost, and what was the net gain?

 

Where is Iraq now? And Afghanistan? The same thing applies to Iran. Let's just say we got rid of the Ayatollah and the extremists within the government, where would Iran be then? Would it become a magic democracy overnight, or would there be decades of blowback? 

If the mullahs were overthrown there is a good possibility of democratic reforms coming back, maybe not overnight like you say, but quicker than many think possible.  Iran has a sizable population of well educated people that are not religious fanatics, especially the younger generation.

Lately there have been frequent  anti-government demonstrations demanding reforms and women's rights.  The pro-government demonstrations you see are government sponsored and instigated.

If really fair and free elections were held tomorrow, a pro-democracy government would most likely be voted in.

 

 

Edited December 4, 2023 by Hawaiian
Additional comment.

[Morch]

12 minutes ago, JackGats said:

Bombing strategic military sites in a one-week special operation, then leave the Mullahs to be taken care of by their own discontented population? Easier said than done though. Also, the discontent within the population may be overestimated. Not long ago we saw women demonstrating against the dress-code police, but some of us old enough may remember Iranian women veiled head to foot demonstrating against the Shah (in support of the Mullahs). Western media don't do propaganda. Instead they do wishful thinking by cherry-picking their news angles.

 

I agree the domestic political landscape is more complex than often presented on media. There's also this thing where countries and people come together when faced by external threats - so support wise this could even work to the benefit of the Iranian regime. It's not that the cracks aren't there, but exploiting them in a constructive manner is not something easily done, or sustained. I recall a conversation with an Iranian - said he was protesting against the Shah at the time, even bought into the new regime doing good things, reforms etc. Didn't work out quite like that,obviously. Not sure if he exactly regretted his past position as such - more like disillusioned with the Iranian regime, but not fully buying into the Western narrative either. Reading comments by Iranians it's a sentiment I recognize quite often.

[spidermike007]

47 minutes ago, Hawaiian said:

If the mullahs were overthrown there is a good possibility of democratic reforms coming back, maybe not overnight like you say, but quicker than many think possible.  Iran has a sizable population of well educated people that are not religious fanatics, especially the younger generation.

Lately there have been frequent  anti-government demonstrations demanding reforms and women's rights.  The pro-government demonstrations you see are government sponsored and instigated.

If really fair and free elections were held tomorrow, a pro-democracy government would most likely be voted in.

 

 

I hope you're right and I hope something like that happens. I do know a lot of Persian people and they certainly despise the Mullahs, who are quite a bunch of ignorant goons. In fact, they nearly redefine the concept of ignorance all by themselves. 

[Luuk Chaai]

You know "all' this crap will stop January 2025.          Can you spell. TRUMP !!!

[impulse]

22 minutes ago, Luuk Chaai said:

You know "all' this crap will stop January 2025.          Can you spell. TRUMP !!!

 

There's going to be a lot of stupidity between now and election day '24.

 

[billd766]

1 hour ago, Luuk Chaai said:

You know "all' this crap will stop January 2025.          Can you spell. TRUMP !!!

Can you spell jail or gaol?

 

[candide]

3 hours ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

Complete nonsense. While the US shouldn't provoke a war with Iran, it's actually Iran that's been testing the waters with more provocations from Iran-backed militias, exactly because Iran fears an all-out war with the US. I don't think the US should directly attack Iran at this point, but more actions need to be taken against those militia and the Houthis in particular need to go. Either way comparing US military might to Iran's is ridiculous because they are orders of magnitude apart.  It's kind of like comparing Hamas and their RPGs and inaccurate rockets to Israel's coordinated land, air, and sea forces - it's not a question of if they lose, it's just a question of how long it takes.

 

Hopefully it won't come to that (a war with Iran), but if it does the US needs to promptly and decidely crush the Islamists and install a new government. The will of the people is already there - it's just a matter of helping them make it happen.

The situation in Yemen is not that simple. Houthis have been fighting against the invasion of Salafism in their country, pushed by SA, and Salafism has often been nursing terrorism in Western countries.

They have also been fighting against Al Quaida (which has an ambiguous relationship with S.A. and the Emirates).

On top of it, they have often been bombed by American weapons used by S.A. and the Emirates, so they have a few reasons to be aggressive....

[thaibeachlovers]

15 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Right now, both Ukraine and Israel are fighting existential wars.

Ukraine perhaps, but israel, nah! They have the best weapons the US can give them, they have a very large army indoctrinated to hate Palestinans, they have air power, sea power, land power. They defeated several large armies in the past.

Hamas has rifles, RPGs and a few rockets that mostly get destroyed in the air- they haven't even been using IEDs.

 

Anyone thinks Hamas threatens the existence of israel is .................!

[thaibeachlovers]

14 hours ago, Hawaiian said:

If the mullahs were overthrown there is a good possibility of democratic reforms coming back, maybe not overnight like you say, but quicker than many think possible.  Iran has a sizable population of well educated people that are not religious fanatics, especially the younger generation.

Lately there have been frequent  anti-government demonstrations demanding reforms and women's rights.  The pro-government demonstrations you see are government sponsored and instigated.

If really fair and free elections were held tomorrow, a pro-democracy government would most likely be voted in.

 

 

Have you actually lived there to know that, or just dreaming?

I lived in Saudi and many hated the religious element, but no rebellion would succeed, as most are content.

[thaibeachlovers]

14 hours ago, JackGats said:

Bombing strategic military sites in a one-week special operation, then leave the Mullahs to be taken care of by their own discontented population? Easier said than done though. Also, the discontent within the population may be overestimated. Not long ago we saw women demonstrating against the dress-code police, but some of us old enough may remember Iranian women veiled head to foot demonstrating against the Shah (in support of the Mullahs). Western media don't do propaganda. Instead they do wishful thinking by cherry-picking their news angles.

Western media IMO publish what makes money, not actual reality, unless it suits them to do so. When it comes to such as Iran I doubt they actually know what a majority of the population want.

[Tug]

1 hour ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Western media IMO publish what makes money, not actual reality, unless it suits them to do so. When it comes to such as Iran I doubt they actually know what a majority of the population want.

Let’s hope it doesn’t happen,that being said I do think the Iranians people are sick and tired of the religious persecution and morality police they are well aware of how the rest of the world lives and they want a piece of it.they are a great nation with an incredibly long and storied culture I wish they were free of their religious overlords so they could live amongst the civilized world and stop the slaughter of innocents