I just have a very very bad feeling

[Celsius]

A few thoughts..... deep thoughts.

 

I accept that I am getting older and perhaps have less tolerance for the unknown. Something just smells off to me like never before.

 

Some here are suggesting that I should drown myself in alcohol and chemicals to get a more positive perspective on life. I will leave that to you> I certainly want to stay alert to any potential warning signs and act accordingly. I will not be a sheep ready for slaughter like at the certain music festival where most of the patrons were under influence of drugs. I will leave that to you. 

 

 

[expat_4_life]

1 hour ago, Celsius said:

A few thoughts..... deep thoughts.

 

Something just smells off to me like never before.

 

Too early to tell how things will emerge.... (yet)

Change/crisis are in the air, many examples:
1) Ongoing war in Eastern Europe
2) Middle east is realigning as a bloc instead of at war with each other
3) Israel/Gaza could easily erupt into a regional conflict

4) China in economic difficulty
5) China/West making a lot of noise/threats re Taiwan
6) Emergence of BRICS+ which will soon eclipse the GDP of the G7

7) Surging unsustainable levels of private/government debt
8) Russia/China alignment
9) Middle east turning away from the west to China/Russia

 

I'm sure there are more ...
 

[GypsyT]

6 minutes ago, expat_4_life said:

7) Surging unsustainable levels of private/government debt

Already up to crisis level in last year in many countries and getting worse.

 

"The inflation crisis of 2021/22 is a global phenomenon, with almost every economy expected to experience inflation rates far higher than two percent across"

 

[Liverpool Lou]

13 hours ago, Celsius said:

I just think there will be some major financial events next year that will perhaps change the rules on how expats live in Thailand. I am not simply talking about the new tax law in Thailand. I am willing to go as far to say that pensions will not be paid unless you are a resident of your country or some kind of reporting requirement to your government, similar to 90 days here in Thailand.

Scaremongering garbage that deserves nothing but contempt.

[BigStar]

14 hours ago, Celsius said:

I just have a feeling something is really off, not just with Thailand, but the whole damn world. 

 

Once again the ANF Poster Boomerang Principle holds. What this really means is that something is off with you.

[Lacessit]

12 hours ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

Depends what kind of pension you have, if it's a government one - they can do whatever they want and you can't do anything about it, but if it's a private pension then they can't retroactively amend the terms.

 

I'm not sure why you're freaking out- the US is almost completely over the minor recession it experienced, and when it charges forward it will pull the entire world with it. The only thing that could possibly spoil that is a large-scale war - something that's very unlikely to happen in an election year.

Voters certainly can do something about a government that messes with their pensions.

 

Politicians in Australia learned long ago to avoid offending the pensioner vote. To do otherwise still is electoral suicide.

[Old Croc]

14 hours ago, Celsius said:

I just think there will be some major financial events next year that will perhaps change the rules on how expats live in Thailand. I am not simply talking about the new tax law in Thailand. I am willing to go as far to say that pensions will not be paid unless you are a resident of your country or some kind of reporting requirement to your government, similar to 90 days here in Thailand.

Thai tax -Despite some head in the sand commentators refusing to entertain any possibility that it will affect expats, the statements released by the govt can't be totally ignored. Until they give some clear legislated guidelines anything could happen. Hopefully they will realise the implications and backpedal.

Residential pensions - As much as some governments resent citizens spending their money in other countries, a law to restrict people to that extent would be a huge social upheaval and impossible to implement.

[OneMoreFarang]

14 hours ago, Celsius said:

Whatever happens, I think I will be better off back home if $hit hits the fan.

Where is home for you?

Looking at the country where I grew up and many other major countries like the UK, USA, and others, I think Thailand is not so bad.

 

 

[1tent42]

I think you need some perspective. 

 

The future being worse than the past is going to be a tall order. In the last 100 years, the world has endured a world war, The Great Depression, Korean War, the Cold War, near world annihilation from the Cuban Missile crisis,  Vietnam War, the energy crisis, ozone hole crisis (remember that one?), the economic implosion of the world’s second largest economy (Japan bubble), the Persian Gulf War, the dot.com crash, Y2K crisis (reading the media made me think we truly were going to be living in caves), The Great Recession, the swine flu, the bird flu, the ebola virus, COVID crisis (the Spanish flu killed off millions!), global warming,  and I’m sure I’m miss a bunch of other examples.

 

This doesn’t even list any regional economic, humanitarian and political crisis that regularly occurs even now but barely affects the world but is still painful to regional countries affected e.g: Venezuela; Argentina, Africa etc. There is an ongoing war with Russia! and Ukraine and it looks like the world has barely budged.

 

So given a bird’s eye view, this world has been screwed for centuries and yet here we are afraid of what’s going to happen next when we forget or ignore the many crises that has already happened all around us. 

[spidermike007]

Yeah in the US right now the economy is unbelievably sluggish, in the retail sector. The government is not letting on at all, they're still creating fake numbers, they're still lying about inflation dropping, and the unemployment numbers are probably fake too. The economy is in really poor shape and I have a very bad feeling too, I think it's only going to get worse. 

 

Here I think the economy is quite bad too, the government is not admitting just how sluggish it is, after many years of The Prayuth  Decimation. 

[Mike Lister]

1 minute ago, spidermike007 said:

Yeah in the US right now the economy is unbelievably sluggish, in the retail sector. The government is not letting on at all, they're still creating fake numbers, they're still lying about inflation dropping, and the unemployment numbers are probably fake too. The economy is in really poor shape and I have a very bad feeling too, I think it's only going to get worse. 

 

Here I think the economy is quite bad too, the government is not admitting just how sluggish it is, after many years of The Prayuth  Decimation. 

So you're saying that both countries are lying and both sets of numbers are fake.....really? I'm tempted to ask what it would take for you to believe any numbers produced by any government but I suppose your answer would be a set of numbers that matches your perception of reality....right?

[Tropicalevo]

15 hours ago, Celsius said:

Whatever happens, I think I will be better off back home if $hit hits the fan

I do not disagree with your synopsis.

I just think that 'better off' depends on current circumstances and where 'back home' is.

I have nothing back home and I would not want  to live in the UK now anyway. I would be arrested for my views before I had found somewhere to live.

Thailand is stuck with me.

Sorry.

[Prubangboy]

#1 regret for everybody past 85:

 

They worried too much about stuff that was out of their control and/or never happened.

 

They wore themselves out for nothing.

[Liverpool Lou]

1 hour ago, BigStar said:

 

Once again the ANF Poster Boomerang Principle holds. What this really means is that something is off with you.

Hear, hear!

[Liverpool Lou]

1 hour ago, Old Croc said:

Thai tax -Despite some head in the sand commentators refusing to entertain any possibility that it will affect expats, the statements released by the govt can't be totally ignored. Until they give some clear legislated guidelines anything could happen. Hopefully they will realise the implications and backpedal.

If there have been no clarified guidelines, as you concede, how can you, rationally, accuse others of being a "head-in-the-sand commentators"?  Head in the sand from what?

[Old Croc]

3 minutes ago, Liverpool Lou said:

If there have been no clarified guidelines, as you concede, how can you, rationally, accuse others of being a "head-in-the-sand commentators"?  Head in the sand from what?

The clue is at the beginning of the sentence, read it again.

I didn't say clarified I said legislated. 

[Gecko123]

16 hours ago, Celsius said:

Whatever happens, I think I will be better off back home if $hit hits the fan.

 

I would be very interested in hearing why you think you would be better off repatriating were the $hit to hit the fan.

 

Looking at issues like climate change, cost of living, cross-border migratory influxes of people, political stability, risk of currency devaluation, potential restrictions on entitlement programs, gun violence, terrorism, or even looking at global famine or global war scenarios, Thailand looks to me like a safer bet.

 

But, again, I would be very interested in hearing your or anyone else's arguments as to why you believe repatriation might be a safer bet.

 

[Neeranam]

16 hours ago, Celsius said:

Whatever happens, I think I will be better off back home if $hit hits the fan.

Depends, I'd rather be homeless in Thailand than Scotland.

[Bday Prang]

1 hour ago, 1tent42 said:

The future being worse than the past is going to be a tall order. In the last 100 years, the world has endured a world war, The Great Depression, Korean War, the Cold War, near world annihilation from the Cuban Missile crisis,  Vietnam War, the energy crisis, ozone hole crisis (remember that one?), the economic implosion of the world’s second largest economy (Japan bubble), the Persian Gulf War, the dot.com crash, Y2K crisis (reading the media made me think we truly were going to be living in caves), The Great Recession, the swine flu, the bird flu, the ebola virus, COVID crisis (the Spanish flu killed off millions!), global warming,  and I’m sure I’m miss a bunch of other examples

Generally referred to as the good old days too.  Seriously I wouldn't worry too much, we'll all be dead and buried before the proverbial hits the fan properly 

[Bday Prang]

5 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

Depends, I'd rather be homeless in Thailand than Scotland.

Nobody could disagree with that !   

[Jim Blue]

We are all DOOMED ! 

[Gecko123]

By the way, while anything is possible, I don't think the sudden imposition of a residency requirement to qualify for entitlement program benefits is at all likely. At worst, such a requirement would be imposed on future beneficiaries. Were the government to suddenly impose such a restriction on existing social security beneficiaries, it would likely trigger a tsunami of elderly beneficiaries being forced to repatriate, many of whom would experience severe financial hardship adjusting to their home country's cost of living. This sudden influx of repatriating expats would strain social services, including medicaid, likely add to homelessness, and be politically unpopular as well.

 

[soi3eddie]

15 hours ago, Lacessit said:

IMO the bans on travel during COVID are unlikely to happen again, every country saw what it did to their national airlines.

I doubt there will be carbon passports, AFAIK nobody has worked out how to fly passenger aircraft with batteries.

It's all about money. Money gives freedom. They will take away the money restricting everything. Carbon passports will allow a certain amount of travel. Beyond that, you can't travel unless paying big time. Many on here (me included to a degree), complain about the recent higher cost of flight tickets to Thailand. What about when tickets cost x times current prices? Likely that many will no longer afford it.

 

The OP @Celsius mentions pensions. What is to stop a government paying pensions only to residents in their home country? The UK already stops annual increase of pensions to those of us living in certain countries. I beleive that Australia restricts or reduces pensions (or their equivalent) to citizens who stay out of Australia for more than 6 months - maybe an Aussie here can comment. Either way, expect changes to financial freedoms, and therefore freedoms on life, in the coming years.

 

[spidermike007]

1 hour ago, Mike Lister said:

So you're saying that both countries are lying and both sets of numbers are fake.....really? I'm tempted to ask what it would take for you to believe any numbers produced by any government but I suppose your answer would be a set of numbers that matches your perception of reality....right?

No it's actually quite simple, I would like to talk to just a few retailers who say their business is good, either in Thailand or in the US. I haven't been meeting many. I have friends who are real estate developers in the US, and they own shopping centers and malls, and they all say the same thing, retail is way down and a lot of the stores are really hurting and having a hard time making rent. 

 

Find a car dealer who's willing to be honest with you and ask him how many cars did you sell last month? Find any retailer that sells medium to high-end products and ask them the same question, how much business did you do last month? 

[Lacessit]

13 minutes ago, soi3eddie said:

It's all about money. Money gives freedom. They will take away the money restricting everything. Carbon passports will allow a certain amount of travel. Beyond that, you can't travel unless paying big time. Many on here (me included to a degree), complain about the recent higher cost of flight tickets to Thailand. What about when tickets cost x times current prices? Likely that many will no longer afford it.

 

The OP @Celsius mentions pensions. What is to stop a government paying pensions only to residents in their home country? The UK already stops annual increase of pensions to those of us living in certain countries. I beleive that Australia restricts or reduces pensions (or their equivalent) to citizens who stay out of Australia for more than 6 months - maybe an Aussie here can comment. Either way, expect changes to financial freedoms, and therefore freedoms on life, in the coming years.

 

The reduction in pensions for Australians living overseas is a modest one. It consists of losing any rent assistance, energy and phone subsidies six weeks after leaving Australia - about 7.5% of the full pension. It's restored as soon as I land in Australia.

To me, it makes sense - why give me subsidies for services I am not using?

[Prubangboy]

The funny thing is:

 

Most people on this forum never had it so good.

 

In their entire lives.

[stoner]

7 hours ago, Gottfrid said:

Are they good? I need some after reading this crap!

 

you bet. :)

[spidermike007]

2 hours ago, Mike Lister said:

So you're saying that both countries are lying and both sets of numbers are fake.....really? I'm tempted to ask what it would take for you to believe any numbers produced by any government but I suppose your answer would be a set of numbers that matches your perception of reality....right?

Some real news for a change. And it's only going to get worse. A huge correction is likely coming. 

 

Last quarter, the euro zone economy contracted 0.1%, official data has shown, and December's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) - seen as a good gauge of economic health - suggested activity has now declined in every month of this quarter. That would mark two consecutive quarters of economic contraction, meeting the technical definition of recession.

 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/euro-zone-business-activity-declines-further-dec-pmi-2023-12-15/

[Mike Lister]

Just now, spidermike007 said:

Some real news for a change. And it's only going to get worse. A huge correction is likely coming. 

 

Last quarter, the euro zone economy contracted 0.1%, official data has shown, and December's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) - seen as a good gauge of economic health - suggested activity has now declined in every month of this quarter. That would mark two consecutive quarters of economic contraction, meeting the technical definition of recession.

 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/euro-zone-business-activity-declines-further-dec-pmi-2023-12-15/

A whole 0.1%, wow!

 

There is a technical recession and then there is a recession that is really a recession.

[Mike Lister]

23 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

No it's actually quite simple, I would like to talk to just a few retailers who say their business is good, either in Thailand or in the US. I haven't been meeting many. I have friends who are real estate developers in the US, and they own shopping centers and malls, and they all say the same thing, retail is way down and a lot of the stores are really hurting and having a hard time making rent. 

 

Find a car dealer who's willing to be honest with you and ask him how many cars did you sell last month? Find any retailer that sells medium to high-end products and ask them the same question, how much business did you do last month? 

Funny you should mention cars, I bought a new one last month. I asked the sale lady how many she had sold in November and she replied not many, only 17. That may not be many to her but to me that seems like a big number.