WW3 Imminent ?

[superal]

With escalating events in the Middle East , the Russia / Ukraine war and China's claim on Taiwan etc , is a WW3 inevitable ? The big boys have up to now stayed away from direct confrontation , until now with the USA & the UK at the forefront .

Is Thailand a safe country to be in for ex-pat retirees in the event of a global war ?

[Trippy]

If someone pushes the button, nowhere is safe.  

[Tropicalevo]

It has already started but the west is in denial.

China and Russia are pulling some impressive strings.

Even NZ is not safe any more because of China in that region.

China will probably protect most of SE Asia as it has interests here.

[Morch]

What...again?

 

There were several such topics/threads by now....but surely, this time is different. This is the time. Game is on.

Or not.

[bluemoon58]

As a long serving ex serviceman this is something I've followed quite closely and it's only my personal opinion but I think we're closer to WW3 than any other time that I can remember. Regards are we safe in Thailand, as a previous poster said, no, not if the button is pushed. And, also only my personal opinion but if anyone is prone to push it first, it'll be Putin. 

[retarius]

I wonder what you mean about WW3. It is already going on with NATO vs Russia, but people usually mean a nuclear war. So it's not imminent, it has already happened, NATO just want to use Ukrainians as cannon fodder, not their own soldiers.

A nuclear war looks much less likely in my opinion. Such events are in the future and are unknowable, as we only have our beliefs to imagine the future.

I think an all out nuclear war is highly unlikely, but I think that the use of nukes weapons is quite likely indeed, and I think Russia will use them in Ukraine or against some or other NATO countries. 

My reasoning is that the US does not have any sort of good record of fulfilling treaty obligations, be they arms control or defence obligations. If they will not send their troops their troops to die for the sake of defending another country, why would US leaders accept MAD (mutually assured destruction) for the sake of say, Estonia or Poland? My belief is that the US will leave Europe hanging and will not activate its nukes in the event of a tactical nuke attack by Russia, and maybe not even for a strategic nuke attack on a major centre, like London (most likely target) or Paris. I think the US will look after its own people, it's own self interest and not risk nukes falling on DC, NYC etc. So if there were a major Russian  attack, unless the US thought it could get a first strike advantage on Russia and take out its nuclear capability thereby not risking a major Russian launch of 1000 or so warheads, I think it would tell Europe to deal with its own problems. 

 

So yes, I see WW3 with conventional arms, I don't see a nuclear holocaust. Having said that, I think this is the situation with Mr Putin in charge, ion he loses the election (highly unlikely), gets sick and dies (medium/low likely), or is replaced in a coup (medium/ low likely) OR Russia territory is directly threatened by NATO troops and Putin's personal position becomes difficult, if a hawk like Medvedev comes in, then all bets are off. 

[sirineou]

I was just scanning the news headline and a article from the New York Post caught my attention 

No No , relax, it hasn't started yet , but I thought of this thread and thought it apropos to this thread. 

"Germany preparing for Russia to start World War 3, leaked war plans reveal  "

https://nypost.com/2024/01/15/news/germany-preparing-for-russia-to-start-world-war-3/

 

Of course I am sure, in view of the situation ,all major countries are making contingency plans. It would be irresponsible not to. But it looks like we are a couple of steps closer to it. 

But I think the idea that Russia will attack NATO , unless it had no other option, is preposterous, They are having a problem pacifying Ukraine and they would attack NATO? an entity   several orders of magnitude stronger than  Ukraine, 

But if it had no other choice................ 

 

[thaibeachlovers]

On 1/12/2024 at 6:19 PM, superal said:

Is Thailand a safe country to be in for ex-pat retirees in the event of a global war ?

IMO in the event of WW3 any farang that is of one of the warring countries will likely be interned, or expelled to home country. I expect Thailand to be neutral.

Better have loadsacash as dreaming if thinking pensions will be paid in LOS or be able to use internet international banking.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 1/16/2024 at 2:19 PM, sirineou said:

I was just scanning the news headline and a article from the New York Post caught my attention 

No No , relax, it hasn't started yet , but I thought of this thread and thought it apropos to this thread. 

"Germany preparing for Russia to start World War 3, leaked war plans reveal  "

https://nypost.com/2024/01/15/news/germany-preparing-for-russia-to-start-world-war-3/

 

Of course I am sure, in view of the situation ,all major countries are making contingency plans. It would be irresponsible not to. But it looks like we are a couple of steps closer to it. 

But I think the idea that Russia will attack NATO , unless it had no other option, is preposterous, They are having a problem pacifying Ukraine and they would attack NATO? an entity   several orders of magnitude stronger than  Ukraine, 

But if it had no other choice................ 

 

IMO any war between Russia and any Euro country will escalate to MAD, and kiss your a** goodbye if in one of them. If survive will probably wish hadn't.

 

See The War Game for some idea of what to expect.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 1/12/2024 at 11:28 PM, bluemoon58 said:

As a long serving ex serviceman this is something I've followed quite closely and it's only my personal opinion but I think we're closer to WW3 than any other time that I can remember. Regards are we safe in Thailand, as a previous poster said, no, not if the button is pushed. And, also only my personal opinion but if anyone is prone to push it first, it'll be Putin. 

Given MAD, it's irrelevant who pushes the button first ( and I doubt it is actually a button ).

[sirineou]

58 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

IMO any war between Russia and any Euro country will escalate to MAD, and kiss your a** goodbye if in one of them. If survive will probably wish hadn't.

 

See The War Game for some idea of what to expect.

Its all about better options. If Putin  gets' to the point where she has no better options what does it have to lose? As unfortunate as it is most world leaders are sociopaths. One does not play at the level game  without currying a sharp knife and having a conscience.  

 

 

[KhunLA]

WW III ... Just plain silliness.  Most ALL the countries are intertwined economically/trade wise.   A major war would benefit nobody.   There will always be conflicts and skirmishes, worldwide, as simply too profitable not to have never ending wars.

[Morch]

4 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

IMO in the event of WW3 any farang that is of one of the warring countries will likely be interned, or expelled to home country. I expect Thailand to be neutral.

Better have loadsacash as dreaming if thinking pensions will be paid in LOS or be able to use internet international banking.

 

@thaibeachlovers

 

Scaremongering.

Is there any precedent for something of the sort?

[Morch]

3 hours ago, sirineou said:

Its all about better options. If Putin  gets' to the point where she has no better options what does it have to lose? As unfortunate as it is most world leaders are sociopaths. One does not play at the level game  without currying a sharp knife and having a conscience.  

 

 

 

As unfortunate as it is most world leaders are sociopaths.

 

He said knowingly.

 

I think a whole lot of posters are, though.

[thaibeachlovers]

18 hours ago, KhunLA said:

WW III ... Just plain silliness.  Most ALL the countries are intertwined economically/trade wise.   A major war would benefit nobody.   There will always be conflicts and skirmishes, worldwide, as simply too profitable not to have never ending wars.

That's being logical. Politicians being human are not logical. They make mistakes and in a nuclear armed world they can be serious.

It only takes a madman ( and I can think of one in a small country with nuclear weapons ) to kick it off and next thing is Armageddon.

[Morch]

1 hour ago, thaibeachlovers said:

That's being logical. Politicians being human are not logical. They make mistakes and in a nuclear armed world they can be serious.

It only takes a madman ( and I can think of one in a small country with nuclear weapons ) to kick it off and next thing is Armageddon.

 

@thaibeachlovers

 

You are, presumably, human. Following your 'reasoning' you are not logical. Hence, everything that you post may be a mistake.

[novacova]

WWIII isn’t going to play out as many fear. It’s happening now in increments, political divide, orchestrated mass migration to the West that can bring about civil wars, hot wars, the threat of wars,  global economic instability. All of which is predictable and will continue to increase and come in waves, what isn’t predictable is how it will play out, no one knows, not a single person on this planet can expect and envision how it’s going to play out as expected.

Though maybe… war spreading in Europe, Middle East and something happening in the US and china exploiting an opportunity is possible soon, then a period of calm for a few years then the big one.

[novacova]

5 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

It only takes a madman ( and I can think of one in a small country with nuclear weapons ) to kick it off and next thing is Armageddon.

Not in this round of events. Though when/if it does take place Iran will have nukes and is more inclined to use/threat which is enough to incite such an event.

[dogssky]

I've been thinking World War 3 may have actually started a while back. It seems like whenever the media starts talking about something, that thing ends up happening. I don't think they're really predicting the future, more like informing us about what's already going on. Lately, all the major news outlets have been talking about this new variant of the "x" virus. Makes me wonder if that means it's really taken off or if they're just drawing attention to it!