Bye bye Electric & Hello Hydrogen?

[billd766]

On 2/19/2024 at 5:15 PM, JBChiangRai said:

Yes, Hydrogen (H2) is great.

 

It cost five times more per kilometer than a battery electric car.
 

You take your electricity and instead of putting it straight in your battery car, you electrolyze water to make hydrogen and oxygen, you then use electricity to compress that so you can put it into tankers. Then you drive the tankers to your local fuel station using hydrogen in the process. Then you use more electricity to transfer into the fuel station tanks. Then you use more electricity to pump it into your car. then your car probably uses a fuel cell which is about 50% efficient as it wastes a lot in heat reducing the whole thing to 20% of the efficiency of having a battery electric car in the first place.

 

So consumers will love the hydrogen car because it cost five times more to run.

 

Where do I order one?

OTOH owners will not be faced with either having to spend half the price of the EV to replace the battery or having to scrap a perfectly good vehicle because they cannot afford to buy a new battery.

 

When you talk about putting electricity straight into your EV battery you carefully omitted to mention how much electricity is used to actually build the battery in the first place, nor how much electricity will be used to scrap and salvage the battery at the end of its working life.

[JBChiangRai]

11 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

I don't think Toyota shareholders will care 2 hoots if you disagree with Akio Toyoda's statements

The main difference I see is you want to force a product on people regardless if it meets their requirements or not where Toyota have a range of products and leaves the final choice to their customers

At the moment people prefer  hybrid over EV

However, that doesn't mean Toyota is abandoning EV investment entirely. It unveiled two EVs concepts at the Japan Mobility Show this week, including a spiritual successor to the MR2, and it recently debuted concepts for an electric Land Cruiser and compact electric pickup. So Toyota is still very much invested in electric cars; it just also believes EVs are part of the answer for a carbon-neutral future. For now, the market appears to be bearing that out.

https://www.thedrive.com/news/akio-toyoda-says-slowing-ev-demand-proves-he-was-right-all-along

I expect EV sales to grow in Thailand this year but I don't think we will see total sales of 152,628 which would be a 100% increase of the 76,314 EV sold in 2023 as its a more cautious customer base that EV manufacturers have to sell to

According to this article BYD look like their 1st pickup will be a gas hybrid

As for the power option that BYD chooses to launch first in 2024, it will be a gasoline engine. It works with a plug-in hybrid electric motor (PHEV), while a pure electric version (BEV) will be ready for sale in 2025.

https://www.headlightmag.com/2024-01-10-spyshots-byd-truck/

And I don’t care two hoots if Toyota’s shareholders disagree with my opinions either. I stand by my analysis.

 

I don’t have a horse in this race and I’m not pushing my opinion on any consumers.  Toyota’s horse is having an increasing number of legs cut off it over the next 11 years and the replacement foal is not out of the womb yet.

 

I don’t think we will see 100% growth in EV’s this year either but I do think 50% is probable.

 

I read about BYD’s pickup too, it’s going to be very interesting to see what happens when BEV pickups are available.

 

 

[JBChiangRai]

12 minutes ago, billd766 said:

OTOH owners will not be faced with either having to spend half the price of the EV to replace the battery or having to scrap a perfectly good vehicle because they cannot afford to buy a new battery.

 

When you talk about putting electricity straight into your EV battery you carefully omitted to mention how much electricity is used to actually build the battery in the first place, nor how much electricity will be used to scrap and salvage the battery at the end of its working life.

Batteries are expected to last longer than the car, I think replacing batteries is a non issue.

 

I don’t know how much electricity is used to make the battery, and I don’t think it’s relevant.  Most consumers don’t care either, they want the best solution for themselves.  It’s why IMHO the planet is doomed to exceed global warming targets and we may well be extinct in the next 500 years.

 

As for recycling the batteries, they have a massive content of Lithium compared to mining Lithium, recycling will be a big business.  But not for 20 years as they will probably not be failing before then.

Edited February 21 by JBChiangRai
Spelling and grandma

[Lacessit]

55 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

When I said "some other HydroCarbon" I was referring to something other that what is used now, i.e. fossil fuel HydroCarbons, Ammonia is of course NH₃ and contains no carbon.

 

 

 

 

.

 

Yes I agree pickup sales are huge here and we don't have a BEV pickup here yet, I think BYD are bringing one here at the end of the year.  I can't see any reason why they should be any less successful with pickups than with their cars.

When you say " some other hydrocarbon" it's a bit like a report that a body was discovered in the forest by a tramp in a state of advanced decomposition. One has to feel sorry for the tramp. A syntax error.

 

You are probably correct about pickups, although Tesla's Cybertruck is a dismal failure.

[JBChiangRai]

1 minute ago, Lacessit said:

When you say " some other hydrocarbon" it's a bit like a report that a body was discovered in the forest by a tramp in a state of advanced decomposition. One has to feel sorry for the tramp. A syntax error.

 

You are probably correct about pickups, although Tesla's Cybertruck is a dismal failure.

Tesla’s Cybertruck can’t be anything other than a failure.

 

They can’t be sold in the EU or UK because they don’t meet type approval because the steel is too thick and rigid.  Equally, they are too difficult to make and Tesla can’t ramp up production.

 

The other issue is how do you repair them. Suppose you have a shunt and you have a dent, you’re screwed, or worse, the chassis is damaged.

 

I see them as rich men’s toys, they don’t even handle well on rough ground.

 

The Rivian on the other hand is a good product, but likely to be decimated by BYD.

[vinny41]

10 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

And I don’t care two hoots if Toyota’s shareholders disagree with my opinions either. I stand by my analysis.

 

I don’t have a horse in this race and I’m not pushing my opinion on any consumers.  Toyota’s horse is having an increasing number of legs cut off it over the next 11 years and the replacement foal is not out of the womb yet.

 

I don’t think we will see 100% growth in EV’s this year either but I do think 50% is probable.

 

I read about BYD’s pickup too, it’s going to be very interesting to see what happens when BEV pickups are available.

 

 

I agree with you that a 50% growth on EV sales in Thailand is achievable on Pickups it will be interesting times if you divide pickup's into 2 categories 1) poser pickup and 2) workhorse pickups as they have different battery requirements with the workhorse pickups requiring a larger battery to cope with daily loads.

 

I have seen reports of batteries being unstable or unreliable once the battery drops below 20%

some EV owners reporting range drops from 12km to 0km in less than 30 seconds

[eisfeld]

32 minutes ago, billd766 said:

When you talk about putting electricity straight into your EV battery you carefully omitted to mention how much electricity is used to actually build the battery in the first place, nor how much electricity will be used to scrap and salvage the battery at the end of its working life.

 

The costs for electricity during manufacture is of course already priced in. And nobody is going to pay for scraping the battery, they will get money because they sell it. What you really want to look at is the emissions created over the lifetime of a EV compared to an ICE vehicle and here the EV wins hands down: https://www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/electric-vehicle-myths#Myth2

 

Edited February 21 by eisfeld

[JBChiangRai]

Just now, vinny41 said:

I agree with you that a 50% growth on EV sales in Thailand is achievable on Pickups it will be interesting times if you divide pickup's into 2 categories 1) poser pickup and 2) workhorse pickups as they have different battery requirements with the workhorse pickups requiring a larger battery to cope with daily loads.

 

I have seen reports of batteries being unstable or unreliable once the battery drops below 20%

some EV owners reporting range drops from 12km to 0km in less than 30 seconds

Those with disposable income are going to love high performance BEV pickups. Expect all kinds of tacky accessories, maybe flame decals and furry dice will return together with sunshade strips at the front saying "SOMCHAI" on the drivers side and a Velcro’d area for his wife, gig, meeanoi or whoever else is in it that day.

 

I think we can subdivide the workhorse pickups into two sub-categories, those that are used around town and don’t cover more than 2-300km per day and those working the fields or doing large mileages. The former are likely to go BEV because they are so much cheaper than the ICE equivalent per km.  The latter maybe not so much, time will tell.

 

Then we have the really poor pickup drivers whose trucks are already over 25 years.  They won’t be going BEV anytime soon, unless they win the lottery.

 

There are a few BEV’s where the last 20% of the battery can be reported less than accurately.  I think it’s a mixture of poor software and BMS not functioning correctly, often caused by users not following the manufacturer’s instructions on charging. BYD ask you to discharge below 10% once every 6 months, and fully charged once a week.  It’s mostly for the BMS to be kept accurate (I think).

[Ben Zioner]

On 2/19/2024 at 4:45 PM, Crossy said:

Simple question.

 

Where will the hydrogen come from?

 

Here is your answer, polymorphic.

[rufusbucher]

The Advantages of Hydrocarbon over Electric and Hydrogen are manifold. Hydrocarbon fuels, such as gasoline and diesel, have been extensively utilized in internal combustion engines for decades, providing a well-established infrastructure for refueling and distribution. Unlike electric vehicles, which require charging infrastructure development, hydrocarbon vehicles can be refueled quickly and easily at existing gas stations.

 

Additionally, hydrocarbon fuels offer high energy density, enabling longer driving ranges compared to current hydrogen fuel cell technology. Despite advancements in electric and hydrogen technologies, the proven efficiency and convenience of hydrocarbon fuels remain compelling for many consumers and industries
 

[SpaceKadet]

On 2/19/2024 at 4:45 PM, Crossy said:

Simple question.

 

Where will the hydrogen come from?

 

Nuclear. Almost all Gen IV reactors and especially SMR's have have provisioning for hydrogen generators to be attached, as well as desalination units.

 

The hydrogen problem is more about safe storage and distribution. And yes, I will agree that hydrogen technology is still lagging behind other energy and propulsion tech, but I think that once the distribution on a larger scale can be implemented, it will be solved. All it needs is a $$ injection and some research tech. C'mon Nissan, Toyota and Mitsu.... you can do it

After all, what can be better when you're burning fuel with only water vapor as a byproduct.

[Crossy]

8 hours ago, SpaceKadet said:

After all, what can be better when you're burning fuel with only water vapor as a byproduct.

 

Running a BEV which is charged by solar, wind or nuclear where there is no exhaust whatever?

 

Hydrogen does have uses where rapid recharge (long distance haulage) and weight (aircraft) are issues but for personal vehicles the battery which can be re-charged at home is king. At least for the foreseeable future.

[JBChiangRai]

8 hours ago, SpaceKadet said:

Nuclear. Almost all Gen IV reactors and especially SMR's have have provisioning for hydrogen generators to be attached, as well as desalination units.

 

The hydrogen problem is more about safe storage and distribution. And yes, I will agree that hydrogen technology is still lagging behind other energy and propulsion tech, but I think that once the distribution on a larger scale can be implemented, it will be solved. All it needs is a $$ injection and some research tech. C'mon Nissan, Toyota and Mitsu.... you can do it

After all, what can be better when you're burning fuel with only water vapor as a byproduct.

 

McKinsey & Co. see Hydrogen being involved in transport for long haul operations accelerating in 2040, in their recent Hydrogen Outlook report they talk about how it will be produced.  Pink Hydrogen (Nuclear) doesn't figure in their forecasts at all, it is almost exclusively expected to be green hydrogen produced through electrolysis of water.

 

You begin with electricity and after 80% losses it's turning the motor in your car, lots of investment will never bring this below 50% losses and it is for that reason that BEV's will be the premium product, they will cost between 20%-50% per mile to fuel.

 

Pink Hydrogen is prohibitively expensive.

 

Global Energy Perspective 2023: Hydrogen outlook | McKinsey

[SpaceKadet]

Japan seems to be inversing heavily into hydrogen. https://apnews.com/article/japan-energy-hydrogen-climate-carbon-emission-7f5552cc387d7ad395980bc9bd5a934c

 

I will agree though that the biggest impact of hydrogen would be in transport sector and heavy industries. We are far off seeing private cars powered by fuel cells or other types of hydrogen engines. 

[SpaceKadet]

5 hours ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

McKinsey & Co. see Hydrogen being involved in transport for long haul operations accelerating in 2040, in their recent Hydrogen Outlook report they talk about how it will be produced.  Pink Hydrogen (Nuclear) doesn't figure in their forecasts at all, it is almost exclusively expected to be green hydrogen produced through electrolysis of water.

 

You begin with electricity and after 80% losses it's turning the motor in your car, lots of investment will never bring this below 50% losses and it is for that reason that BEV's will be the premium product, they will cost between 20%-50% per mile to fuel.

 

Pink Hydrogen is prohibitively expensive.

 

Global Energy Perspective 2023: Hydrogen outlook | McKinsey

 

Electrolysis is a very inefficient way to produce hydrogen. Nuclear hydrogen generators use thermochemical technologies, which only requires heat, or hybrid technologies such as the high temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) and hybrid thermochemical cycles, which require both heat and electricity.. And the nuclear reactors, especially Gen IV, generate that in abundance.

[JBChiangRai]

1 minute ago, SpaceKadet said:

 

Electrolysis is a very inefficient way to produce hydrogen. Nuclear hydrogen generators use thermochemical technologies, which only requires heat, or hybrid technologies such as the high temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) and hybrid thermochemical cycles, which require both heat and electricity.. And the nuclear reactors, especially Gen IV, generate that in abundance.

And yet Pink Hydrogen is not in the analysts forecasts.

 

I agree with you though.

 

 

[SpaceKadet]

Just now, JBChiangRai said:

And yet Pink Hydrogen is not in the analysts forecasts.

 

I agree with you though.

 

 

 

Not in the McKinsey report you're linking. But many other sources talk of using nuclear exclusively in the future hydrogen production. 

 

In fact, the stigma of using nuclear power is slowly fading and we see more acceptance for nuclear from the general public.

The biggest obstacle to a larger deployment of nuclear is, IMO, current legislation, which centers on dinosaur size NPPs with capacities of several TWe, building cycles of 20-30 years, billions of $ in cost, and high maintenance in it's relatively short lifespan. Not to mention costs associated with waste storage.

[Issanman]

 

[sirineou]

If interested in the latest developments in the Hydrogen industry 

in the link below are all the headlines of recent publications from Google news 

https://news.google.com/search?q=hydrogen&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen