Thai baht expected to weaken against US dollar

[webfact]

 

The Thai baht is expected to weaken to an estimated 37.20 baht against the US dollar later this week, due to the continued Middle East tensions, says Kasikorn Research Centre (K-Research). The economic indicators from the US, due for release this week, are also predicted to bolster the dollar’s strength.

 

Monday morning trading saw the Thai currency quoted at 36.97 baht to the greenback, the lowest in half a year. This was followed by a minor rally to 36.94-96 baht, in comparison to Friday’s close of 36.86 baht. The weakened state of the baht is attributed to the global gold price drop and the fluctuations of the Chinese yuan and Japanese yen.

 

The US dollar, viewed as the most secure currency, has seen an increase in strength due to the persisting Middle East crisis and the possibility that the Federal Reserve will not be hasty to lower interest rates, given the robust performance of the US economy.

The ongoing Middle East conflict and a robust dollar have had a significant impact on the baht, which has depreciated 7.6% year to date, stated Kanjana Chockpisansin, the head of research in the banking and financial sector at K-Research.

The baht’s weakness is second only to the yen in the region, which has seen an 8.8% drop year to date. The South Korean won has also depreciated by 6.4% this year, as per K-Research’s data.

 

The market’s expectations for rate cuts in the US and other developed economies have been scaled back due to comments from Fed officials and higher-than-expected inflation data last week. The US is scheduled to announce first-quarter GDP figures on Thursday and the core Personal Consumption Expenditure price index, known for tracking inflation, on Friday, said Kanjana.

 

“If the US economic indicators exceed the market’s expectations, they increase the chance that the Fed would keep the rates higher for longer. This would result in a stronger dollar and put further pressure on the baht to depreciate.

 

“K-Research, in line with the views of Kasikornbank, maintains that the US central bank would decrease rates at least twice this year.”

 

Kanjana noted that K-Research anticipates the baht to fluctuate between 36.70 to 37.20 baht to the dollar this week, based on the expectation that geopolitical concerns are unlikely to dissipate quickly, reported Bangkok Post.

 

by Bob Scott

Picture courtesy of t0.gstatic

 

Source: The Thaiger 2024-04-23

 

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[ChaiyaTH]

Nice I get half a baht per euro more again since just a few days already too. Good times.

[retarius]

I sincerely hope not. I am enjoying this exchange rate on my SS paid here. But I can't decide who has the weaker currency really. If US rates come down, so will the currency. If Thai rates come down so will the currency. You then have state of the nation......US in an awful pickle what with provoking wars to break out everywhere, and the tax payer has to pay for them and a deficit of $1 trillion this year so, $3 trillion forecast for this year. Thailand in a smaller pickle, but a pickle being created by a mindless baboon who dreams up new expensive gimmicks every day and never ever finishes a job.

[Mike Lister]

12 minutes ago, retarius said:

I sincerely hope not. I am enjoying this exchange rate on my SS paid here. But I can't decide who has the weaker currency really. If US rates come down, so will the currency. If Thai rates come down so will the currency. You then have state of the nation......US in an awful pickle what with provoking wars to break out everywhere, and the tax payer has to pay for them and a deficit of $1 trillion this year so, $3 trillion forecast for this year. Thailand in a smaller pickle, but a pickle being created by a mindless baboon who dreams up new expensive gimmicks every day and never ever finishes a job.

My take is that the US economy is well ahead of where everyone thought it would be whilst Thailand is falling further behind. I don't see US rates coming down any time soon. Some of the USD strength was a flight to safety when Israel/Iran took off but much of it is based on the comparative strength of the US economy and the fact the interest rates will stay higher for longer.

[HappyExpat57]

The baht just topped 37+ to the dollar today.

[Rimmer]

A troll meme has been removed

[Berkshire]

46 minutes ago, retarius said:

I sincerely hope not. I am enjoying this exchange rate on my SS paid here. But I can't decide who has the weaker currency really. If US rates come down, so will the currency. If Thai rates come down so will the currency. You then have state of the nation......US in an awful pickle what with provoking wars to break out everywhere, and the tax payer has to pay for them and a deficit of $1 trillion this year so, $3 trillion forecast for this year. Thailand in a smaller pickle, but a pickle being created by a mindless baboon who dreams up new expensive gimmicks every day and never ever finishes a job.

You hope not?  If you're getting US SS, you'd certainly want a weaken THB.  I've got no complaints and hope the THB keeps heading south.  But nothing goes down forever....

[BigStar]

Sounds good. I wonder if this is about the best time to change some of my stash of USD to THB.

[Mike Lister]

8 minutes ago, BigStar said:

Sounds good. I wonder if this is about the best time to change some of my stash of USD to THB.

Historically, now is about as good as it gets. If me, I'd at least trade 50% and then wait on the remainder to see what happens next,

[CanadaSam]

Wonderful thing about Wise, an automatic transfer IF the baht reaches a certain stage that you specify.  I did it a couple months ago, stating 37 baht to 1 usd.

 

Amazingly, they did the transfer automatically yesterday to my complete surprise!

 

Happy to see baht is going down!  We may enjoy 40 baht to a dollar soon, I hope!

[dinsdale]

Pity the $Aus isn't where it was 20 years ago. 32/34 or about to baht. It has been strenghtening somewhat against the Baht but still around Bt10 less.

Edited April 23 by dinsdale

[spidermike007]

This is great news, many of us feel that the Thai baht has been overvalued for a very long time, now that money is being withdrawn from the markets and more than likely foreign investments are down, along with manufacturing and exports, we're finally seeing the long overdue correction over the past year or so. 

 

May it continue and may the baht drop another 20%. The officials deserve that with their constant stream of wrong headed policies. And the appointment of a nitwit like Srettha, as finance minister, as well as PM. As if one position isn't important enough. 

[RichardColeman]

If anyone can tell me why every currency seemed to plummet - apart from the dollar - last week against the baht the day after they announced the baht was the worst performing currency in asia without mentioning manipulation by the powers that be, I would appreciate it !

[mfd101]

13 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

May it continue and may the baht drop another 20%.

Of course that would mean higher prices in Thailand for all imported goods ...

[CanadaSam]

17 minutes ago, mfd101 said:

Of course that would mean higher prices in Thailand for all imported goods ...

 

Yes, are you worried about your expense for imported spam, or ALL the other stuff you buy that is local?

[mfd101]

1 minute ago, CanadaSam said:

 

Yes, are you worried about your expense for imported spam, or ALL the other stuff you buy that is local?

I'm not worried about it at all. I merely note that people rabbit on about how wunnerful it is when the baht drops against their home currency, apparently ignorant that there is - in slightly slower time - a negative effect too.

[topt]

Just now, mfd101 said:

I'm not worried about it at all. I merely note that people rabbit on about how wunnerful it is when the baht drops against their home currency, apparently ignorant that there is - in slightly slower time - a negative effect too.

yes the price of oil being a classic example - and I am not referring just to the fuel for transport.

[Chivas]

37.07 real time now

[Chivas]

1 hour ago, Mike Lister said:

Historically, now is about as good as it gets. If me, I'd at least trade 50% and then wait on the remainder to see what happens next,

 

Pound Cost averaging is our friend as always albeit USD in this case

[hotchilli]

2 hours ago, Berkshire said:

But nothing goes down forever....

My missus says the same.

[Ben Zioner]

13 minutes ago, CanadaSam said:

ALL the other stuff you buy that is local?

Local stuff is leass than 20% of what I buy. Holidays go overseas now as we all should minimize remittances.

[Chivas]

40 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

If anyone can tell me why every currency seemed to plummet - apart from the dollar - last week against the baht the day after they announced the baht was the worst performing currency in asia without mentioning manipulation by the powers that be, I would appreciate it !

 

Because lol there are two pairings to every exchange conversion apart from the USD which as the Worlds reserve currency has direct exchange rate with every worldwide currency

 

Movement in either pairing (for those not holding USD) effects the bottom line

[Ben Zioner]

42 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

If anyone can tell me why every currency seemed to plummet - apart from the dollar

Maybe just because US has been a well managed country for the past three years.

[Srikcir]

4 hours ago, retarius said:

US in an awful pickle what with provoking wars to break out everywhere

If you pay attention these wars are mana from heaven for the US Defense Industry that contributes to the US economy through sales. Plus the US cleans out its overage stored military surplus by transfers to like-kind foreign nations such as Ukraine, thus saving billions USD in storage and maintenance costs. 

The so-called trillions of debt was created primarily by the GOP during POTUS Trump regime in permanent tax cuts for large corporations and wealthy political donors. 

[jayjay2001]

My concern is bringing USD into Thailand from my USA savings account because of the new taxing of foreign money coming into a Thai bank account regulation that started January, 2024, i.e., paying taxes in 2025 for money transferred into Thailand during 2024.  I am a Thai tax resident, and as I work in Thailand, I do file a Thai tax return every year.  The money in my USA savings account was already previously taxed in the USA because it was money I earned in the USA over a period of years.  

 

But as no one seems to know -- including myself -- what this new regulation (or new interpretation of an old regulation) from the Thai RD really means, again, I'm leery of transferring any USD into Thailand.  But, perhaps, I'm missing the boat somewhere.

 

 

[Mike Lister]

44 minutes ago, jayjay2001 said:

My concern is bringing USD into Thailand from my USA savings account because of the new taxing of foreign money coming into a Thai bank account regulation that started January, 2024, i.e., paying taxes in 2025 for money transferred into Thailand during 2024.  I am a Thai tax resident, and as I work in Thailand, I do file a Thai tax return every year.  The money in my USA savings account was already previously taxed in the USA because it was money I earned in the USA over a period of years.  

 

But as no one seems to know -- including myself -- what this new regulation (or new interpretation of an old regulation) from the Thai RD really means, again, I'm leery of transferring any USD into Thailand.  But, perhaps, I'm missing the boat somewhere.

 

 

Any income earned before 1 January 2024 is free of Thai tax, when remitted to Thailand.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Americans thinking of doing any big transfers into Thailand to take advantage of the current currency exchange rates also need to keep in mind that they may trigger additional U.S. government reporting requirements under the FBAR program (for more than $10K held in foreign accounts) and separately under the FATCA program for foreign financial assets totaling various larger amounts, depending on marital status and other details.

 

 

 

[Foexie]

YOU WISH 5555555555555555

[Gsxrnz]

Confiscation (theft) of Russian USD assets, about to be passed by the US Senate, will be the final straw for the greenback.  Many BRICS countries (being a bit less than 50% of world population and GDP) are already gun shy of the dollar after US weaponized it two years ago by sanctioning the Russkies. Probably the biggest foreign policy blunder ever made by the US, and given their track record, that's saying something!

 

This has only accelerated the development of BRICS and member states have been bailing from the dollar into gold ever since.  The USD's days as the reserve currency are numbered. One day very soon there will be a T-Bill auction and buyers either won't front up, or bang on a huge tail premium that will drastically increase the debt servicing of 34T+ debt.

 

Printing USD and exporting inflation (as well as producing munitions that get destroyed and then building more munitions to boost the economy) since Bretton Woods is fine when there is foreign demand for the currency. Different story when supply outstrips demand because 50% of the world's economies gave the middle finger to the greenback.

 

We may see the US become the new Venezuela, or worse, the new Un-united Kingdom.

[Mike Lister]

10 minutes ago, Gsxrnz said:

Confiscation (theft) of Russian USD assets, about to be passed by the US Senate, will be the final straw for the greenback.  Many BRICS countries (being a bit less than 50% of world population and GDP) are already gun shy of the dollar after US weaponized it two years ago by sanctioning the Russkies. Probably the biggest foreign policy blunder ever made by the US, and given their track record, that's saying something!

 

This has only accelerated the development of BRICS and member states have been bailing from the dollar into gold ever since.  The USD's days as the reserve currency are numbered. One day very soon there will be a T-Bill auction and buyers either won't front up, or bang on a huge tail premium that will drastically increase the debt servicing of 34T+ debt.

 

Printing USD and exporting inflation (as well as producing munitions that get destroyed and then building more munitions to boost the economy) since Bretton Woods is fine when there is foreign demand for the currency. Different story when supply outstrips demand because 50% of the world's economies gave the middle finger to the greenback.

 

We may see the US become the new Venezuela, or worse, the new Un-united Kingdom.

I see China's gold buying efforts as a different agenda to USD value. I think China has seen what the US has done to Russia by freezing their USD assets and are determined not to be caught out the same way, if they decide to do something that displeases the West. So I don't see that as a lack of confidence in USD, I think it's more about developing a Plan B for the future.