Is Thailand's subtle bias to Russia (vs. the collective west) risking secondary sanctions?

[connda]

21 minutes ago, Hummin said:

To answer your question, Im already moving out, and secure my future in my orign coiuntry. I know it will not be a future destination for me, based on what we already experience of changes. 

 

I do not find Thailand reliable for many reasons, except for the climate and good value for my money. Thailands "neutral" view have not changed my view or contributed to further already negative loaded feelings about Thailands political system or the poor extortion of their own people, and lack of ecucation. 

 

Extortion in a way, they do not give Thais equally possiblities, but rather protects the elite, and continue to favorize those who have resourches to buy themselves out of crimes, and as well buy themselves positions. 

 

I do not think retired expats would be hit by sanctions, but those who have business with Thailand, but again, the car industry, the motorbike, electronics, it will take time to implement sanctions on Thailand. 

 

 

Been here almost two decades, married and have a Thai extended family.  Short of the Thai government forcing me out - I'm staying.  Even if a war breaks out between the West and China.  This is home.  I'm not anti-China.  I'm anti-war, pro-peace, pro-global-trade, pro-sovereignty.  So here is where I'll stay - come what may.  If I get a bullet in the back of the head for being "American" so be it.  I've lived long enough.  Faster than radiation sickness or freezing and starving after the nukes fly.

[Presnock]

1 hour ago, Hummin said:

I think if the west started threatening with sanctions, they would only serve Putin and China, and push them over! I also believe Thailand have a second view on moral coming from the west historically seen in perspective. 

I'm not sure how Thailand feel about the past being central in the Usa war in Vietnam, Laos and cambodia. Also seen in retrospect the colonisation of the whole region.

 

The question is, do Asian believe in democrazy and the West as an future alliance? 

Well, seems the colonization of Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar by the Chinese is basically complete...Yeah Thailand looks like they might want to jump on THAT bandwagon too.

[CharlieKo]

1 hour ago, Jingthing said:

the risk that Thailand might eventually be hit with secondary sanctions because of their obvious strong economic ties with fascist dictator Putin's Russia and that IF it does that will mean Thai banks, and expats depend on Thai banks. That's all. No predictions that will ever happen, but it might.

 

That would just prove to the global south that the US had weaponised the dollar, as they have with Russia, and trying to confiscate Russian assets to give to Ukraine. This was a big mistake. Not to mention totally illegal. Trust in the dollar is fading even Saudi Arabia not renewing the petrodollar agreement they had with the US. American influence around the world is waining. Thailand is interested in Joining the BRICS countries. They see which way the wind is blowing. They know their future is with a rising economically powerful China. The US would be better off trying to work with other nation in a multi polar world rather than thinking it's empire can control the world. Those days are coming to an end. 

 

Not to mention the fact that it is the US who instigated this Ukrainian debacle just so they could put Nukes along the Russian boarder. Talk of morals when the US has none is a joke. The US needs to sort out it's own mess before trying to dictate what other countries should or shouldn't do. As Lynsey Graham said the Ukraine war is cheap for America as they are willing to fight to the last man. I think you can expect more anti American sentiments in the future.

  

[Hummin]

1 minute ago, Presnock said:

Well, seems the colonization of Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar by the Chinese is basically complete...Yeah Thailand looks like they might want to jump on THAT bandwagon too.

The colonization of those countries have been done by economic force, and not with weapons in hand. A big difference

[Presnock]

1 minute ago, Hummin said:

The colonization of those countries have been done by economic force, and not with weapons in hand. A big difference

either way, the same result but when Putin decided to take over Ukraine he decided  to kill as many as he could plus try to totally destroy the entire infrastructure to that country.  Here  in SEA there is not that much worth destroying anyway, just so they can control it is their goal.  My opinion anyway.

[BobBKK]

It is straightforward:

Join the NATO/EU club, or we will threaten, sanction and malign you.

Alternative: join BRICS along with China, Russia, Iran, Brazil, India, UAE and now Thailand

The world is divided like never before - some countries will not be bullied anymore by the US hegemony. Winter is coming. 

[Hummin]

18 minutes ago, connda said:

Been here almost two decades, married and have a Thai extended family.  Short of the Thai government forcing me out - I'm staying.  Even if a war breaks out between the West and China.  This is home.  I'm not anti-China.  I'm anti-war, pro-peace, pro-global-trade, pro-sovereignty.  So here is where I'll stay - come what may.  If I get a bullet in the back of the head for being "American" so be it.  I've lived long enough.  Faster than radiation sickness or freezing and starving after the nukes fly.

I still got a few year I can work and establish myselves other places, and I never left completely since I still have a home to return to. Nok kids for both of us helps alot

[connda]

1 hour ago, Purdey said:

If sanctions worked, why is Russia able to fight a foreign war?

Sanctions do work.  100%  For sure for sure!:  They foster ingenuity, creativeness, innovation, resourcefulness, and they push sanctioned nations to align with each other to create unsanctionable unions of countries with a common interest: defying the sanctions.  They work like a magic charm don't 'cha know? 

The Western thinking on sanctions is that their goal is to create so much pain for the civilian population of the sanctioned nations so that the "economically crushed" population of the sanctioned country will "organically rise-up and and overthrow their leaders and embrace true Western Liberal Democracy."  However, the 'revolution' is seldom 'organic' although oft-times led by NGOs promoting the interests of their the government(s) imposing sanctions, and the sanctioned civilian populations, in response, end up rallying around their besieged government as sanctions create an "Us v.s. Them" mentality.  So like in Russia, the majority of population rallies around Putin and the Russian government, the Russian government goes on an industrial-level war footing as they know that they are in the cross-hairs of a future NATO invasion, government and corporate interests develop alternative approaches to banking, insurance, shipping and above all, diplomacy with other nations also with a bulls-eye on their collective backs, and suddenly - viola - a Blow-Back Royal Flush in Spades:  Russia's economy is predicted to have greater economic growth than the collective West¹ as Germany flounders after being cut off from cheap, Russian natural gas and then dragging the rest of the EU (and UK) down with it. Just check out the EU elections - EU leaders are freaking out - so much for the efficacy of sanctions, blow-back's a b*tch.  In the meanwhile Russia sells it's natural resources to the nations which will eventually be the BRICS+100.

In the long run, sanctions blow-back on the countries implementing the sanctions. 

You're spewing "moronic anti western, anti democracy rhetoric." 

Nah.  I deal with reality.  I'm pro-peace, pro-trade, anti-sanction, anti-interventionism. I don't have a dog in this fight other than the dog that benefits from peaceful trade relations between nations.  I don't see China or Russia or any of the new "Axis Of Evil" with hundreds of military bases stretching across the globe and sitting on the borders of virtually every nation in the world while threatening sanctions and promising future military interventions.

"That's because the "Axis Of Evil" are aggressors!!!"

Actually my definition of "aggressor" is any country who blankets the world with military bases and weapons aimed at other countries while constantly deliberating which counties that they plan to go to war with in the near future.  That as well as deliberating which cheeky nations need to have new sanctions imposed on them, like possibly Thailand, for not following their the rules, for not signing the mandatory-to-sign "Zelensky Peace Agreement," and for signaling their intention to join the BRICS+.
 

So if the US and their Western allies impose Jingthing's concern, "secondary sanction," or worse "primary sanctions" on Thailand, what will happen is pretty much what happens in most countries sanctioned by the West - the population will blame the sanctions on the West, rally around the Thai flag, and dial up the xenophobia toward the sanctioning country (and possibly most farangs) to a Spinal Tap "11" on the volume dial.  And the OP is worried that it might affect his banking in Thailand.  Maybe - but that may be the least of his worries if it happens.

 

Citation:

1. Russia to grow faster than all advanced economies says IMF, BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/business-68823399

 

[0ffshore360]

1 hour ago, BobBKK said:

It is straightforward:

Join the NATO/EU club, or we will threaten, sanction and malign you.

Alternative: join BRICS along with China, Russia, Iran, Brazil, India, UAE and now Thailand

The world is divided like never before - some countries will not be bullied anymore by the US hegemony. Winter is coming. 

Autumn precedes winter and usually with some blustery winds signalling change.

[connda]

1 hour ago, Presnock said:

Well, seems the colonization of Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar by the Chinese is basically complete

Well, they didn't call this area "French Indo-China for nothing.  <laughs>
Laos - French colony - independence in 1954^*
Cambodia - French colony - independence in 1953^*

^*Side-note: US bombed Laos and Cambodia back to the stone age during its war in Vietnam.

Myanmar - British colony - independence 1948

So at the moment, Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar are sovereign countries, not colonies of China, but all those countries were colonies of Western nations in the past.

You people keep ignoring historical realities and then promote complete fiction and call it "fact."  The last I checked that is the definitional of misinformation.  Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar are not colonized by the Chinese, even metaphorically. So stop with the misinformation.  Thanks! 

Does China exert an influence on its neighboring countries?  Absolutely. Just like the US influences Mexico, Latin America, South America, and the Caribbeans - historically called the Monroe Doctrine. And those influences exist today.
But Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar are no more "colonies" of China than Mexico, Latin America, South America, and the Caribbeans are "colonies" of the United States.  Let keep to facts.

[Celsius]

3 hours ago, Jingthing said:

That's a stupid distinction promoted by maga fascists.

 

Yes, the Constitution Set Up a Democracy - The Atlantic

 

You start a thread I agree with then bash the "opposite side" 

 

Typical American stupidity which answers your own question.

3 hours ago, Jingthing said:

There is a global trend towards totalitarianism over democracy. 

It seems to me the west lacks the great leadership to turn that tide.

 

Ever wonder why?

[connda]

2 hours ago, BobBKK said:

It is straightforward:

Join the NATO/EU club, or we will threaten, sanction and malign you.

Alternative: join BRICS along with China, Russia, Iran, Brazil, India, UAE and now Thailand

The world is divided like never before - some countries will not be bullied anymore by the US hegemony. Winter is coming. 

I'm thinking the Winds of Winter are coming for the West (wow that rhymes; I'm a poet and don't know it) <laughs>
The Song of Spring is coming for the BRICS+.

One's dying the death of empires; the other is blossoming to life.

[connda]

2 hours ago, Hummin said:

I still got a few year I can work and establish myselves other places, and I never left completely since I still have a home to return to. Nok kids for both of us helps alot

Yeah.  Most of my life I didn't have roots.  There are advantages to that when you are younger. 
Now I'm old and cranky and have roots.  (hummm, wonder if there is a connection <laughs>).  If you decide to pull up stakes and head to other climes, I wish you the best! 

[Celsius]

2 hours ago, connda said:

Been here almost two decades, married and have a Thai extended family.  Short of the Thai government forcing me out - I'm staying.  Even if a war breaks out between the West and China.  This is home.  I'm not anti-China.  I'm anti-war, pro-peace, pro-global-trade, pro-sovereignty.  So here is where I'll stay - come what may.  If I get a bullet in the back of the head for being "American" so be it.  I've lived long enough.  Faster than radiation sickness or freezing and starving after the nukes fly.

 

You won't even be an afterthought to Thailand. Kinda like having an accident, but not having money for hospital. Except you won't even be able to start a gofundme as payments and services will be cut off. And sure enough nuclear winter won't avoid Thailand.

 

Staying in a country with zero natural  resources and some of the dumbest people around lol.

 

Stock up on ur amulets

 

 

 

 

[connda]

14 minutes ago, Celsius said:

You won't even be an afterthought to Thailand.

Nor you nor most any other farang expat.  The theme is is obvious:  Thailand For Thais.  All other nationalities are at the moment naught but "an afterthought to Thailand."  It may change in the future if Thailand experiences another Soros-moment like 1997. 

[newbee2022]

17 hours ago, Hummin said:

The question is, do Asian believe in democrazy and the West as an future alliance?

Yes, they believe in democrazy.....you said it ...as crazy.

A good leadership is more effective. (see Singapore, or China, India??) Democracy is on the downturn worldwide.🙏

 

[Srikcir]

17 hours ago, connda said:

we are a Republic. 

So are North Korea, Cuba, Laos, Bangladesh, Algeria and China. Clearly not democracies in a traditional sense. What a country calls itself is irrelevant as to how it governs itself. 

And the presence of a constitution may be indicative but not determinative to being a democracy. Scissors cuts paper.

Thailand is at least consistent as it neither is a republic nor governs as a Western democracy, claiming itself as having a Thai-styled democracy that appears to be compatible with military coups and one-party political and judicial systems. 

[Srikcir]

"Thailand's subtle bias to Russia"

"Bias" doesn't win or lose wars, nor commit genocide nor condone a scorched-earth policy (ie., eradicate civilian infrastructure). Thai citizens are not being solicited to fight on Russia's behalf in Crimea.

For a nation 'bias' is a political position, an expression without commitment. It might be reflected in a UN vote, priority in trade, military posturing, favorable visas, etc. Thailand thus far has not directly supported Russia's war with military aid.

Thailand's purchase of Russian oil and agriculture at unique discounts is insignificant to Russia's overall economy - even with USD (in fact the Thai baht is now performing poorly against the USD for such trade to bring any significance advantage to either country).

 

[retarius]

Thailand is surrounded by communists countries. It needn't kow-tow to the US or become a vassal state. Give it one or two years and these nations will be members of BRICS and the US will paid heavily for a non communist nation in the middle.

Anyway, great news and nice of Thailand to un-sign the "peace conference output.

There I apparently a backstory since it is very odd that countries un-sign meeting communiques after signing. The backstory is that nobody signed. It was assumed by the drafters that anyone at the meeting was a signatory and you had to contact them and opt out, but sadly, by mistake and in error and all that, some countries, like Thailand, liable to refuse to sign were not told about having to opt out. What a shame. I suppose it doesn't look that good when a high proportion of signers were NGOs funded by the US, and how many countries opted out. Well done Thailand. Beggars like Zelensky should not be your friends, because they are not your friends. 

[Presnock]

19 hours ago, Purdey said:

1. Democracy: a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives.

2. Republic: a state in which supreme power is held by the people and their elected representatives, and which has an elected or nominated president rather than a monarch.

3. Thailand is non-aligned. I doubt it will fall on one side or another. 

4. If sanctions worked, why is Russia able to fight a foreign war?

Russia has oil, China and India buying it up cheap - Russia then buys weapons from China, Iran, and N. Korea.  Sanctions only work if those aligned politically or financially with the country being sanctioned, then the sanctions are pointless.  Perfect example are countries like Pakistan and N. Korea - they have developed NUCLEAR WEAPONS even though sanctioned - stories of citizen in N. Korea having to eat grass as there is not enough food for the leaders and the military.  Just like Iran - sanctioned and was working a tad until Trump broke off negotiations - after all he is the best negotiator ever (just ask him).  But hopefully wiser heads will prevail, the two sides will continue threatening each other and anti-nuke polities will become the next big discussion.  Good luck to all of us.  

 

[soalbundy]

20 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Look, I did start this topic, but I see it's attracting a lot of hostility, and a lot of moronic anti western, anti democracy rhetoric. I'm not interested in wasting my time with that. 

I started this to bring up a concern that I haven't heard before -- the risk that Thailand might eventually be hit with secondary sanctions because of their obvious strong economic ties with fascist dictator Putin's Russia and that IF it does that will mean Thai banks, and expats depend on Thai banks. That's all. No predictions that will ever happen, but it might.

I doubt Thailand will be hit with secondary sanctions, there is a lot of western money tied up here and Thailand is ant-communist, a peaceful bulwark in Asia, the west wont want to endanger that. Thailand has always been pragmatic in its international politics, any perceived danger of secondary sanctions would bring about a quick reaction to change their policies just enough to avert danger without antagonizing the other parties unduly, their foreign office has a long tradition of clever diplomacy.

[petey123]

 "genocidal war of choice" is total nonsense.   the ukrainians, urged on by their western puppet masters, were trying to smash russian speakers in the country's east.   after fair warning, russia stepped in to support the "ukrainian" russians who, because of nonsensical decisions imposed by soviet communists, had been left to fend for themselves against ukrainian nationalists (many of whom identify with german nazis).   if you do not believe people should have a right of self-determination, then for you there is something sacred about the former ukrainian soviet socialist republic and its borders - not so for me.         btw,  a substantial minority of ukrainians are russian speakers and identify with russia, not with the arguably artificial country know as ukraine....

[petey123]

 "genocidal war of choice" is total nonsense.   the ukrainians, urged on by their western puppet masters, were trying to smash russian speakers in the country's east.   after fair warning, russia stepped in to support the "ukrainian" russians who, because of nonsensical decisions imposed by soviet communists, had been left to fend for themselves against ukrainian nationalists (many of whom identify with german nazis).   if you do not believe people should have a right of self-determination, then for you there is something sacred about the former ukrainian soviet socialist republic and its borders - not so for me.         btw,  a substantial minority of ukrainians are russian speakers and identify with russia, not with the arguably artificial country know as ukraine....

[Stevemercer]

I doubt Thailand will be hit by secondary sanctions. Thailand will continue to sit on the sidelines and be 'neutral', that is, it will seek to be friends with all nations or at least maintain cordial relations. I don't think Thailand has an ideological or morale agenda to push. It just wants to keep all its options open and remain open to business to all.

 

Any secondary sanctions may be at a level causing inconvenience, but not enough to force anyone in Thailand to rethink their plans.

[Presnock]

22 hours ago, CharlieKo said:

 

That would just prove to the global south that the US had weaponised the dollar, as they have with Russia, and trying to confiscate Russian assets to give to Ukraine. This was a big mistake. Not to mention totally illegal. Trust in the dollar is fading even Saudi Arabia not renewing the petrodollar agreement they had with the US. American influence around the world is waining. Thailand is interested in Joining the BRICS countries. They see which way the wind is blowing. They know their future is with a rising economically powerful China. The US would be better off trying to work with other nation in a multi polar world rather than thinking it's empire can control the world. Those days are coming to an end. 

 

Not to mention the fact that it is the US who instigated this Ukrainian debacle just so they could put Nukes along the Russian boarder. Talk of morals when the US has none is a joke. The US needs to sort out it's own mess before trying to dictate what other countries should or shouldn't do. As Lynsey Graham said the Ukraine war is cheap for America as they are willing to fight to the last man. I think you can expect more anti American sentiments in the future.

  

Yeah,  Thailand just recently signed a trade agreement with China, and immediately local small businesses have started complaining about the amount and poor quality of materials pouring into Thailand.  The first thing that they noticed were the "Elephant Pants".  Now they see what other countries are learning.  Just like the e-garbage  Thailand signed on to China in 2017 when the Chinese govt outlawed it in their country so they started sending it to Thailand for "processing" storage, burial etc...oh yeah started finding it in warehouses in storage facilities not meant to be where they are!  Another OOPS!  I would be one

of the last Americans to say that the US is not perfect as I am a proud patriot but I too have seen the decline brought about by greed, corruption, and lack of integrity of the US politicians.  Presidential candidates are selected by the $$$$ of big business and pharmas, etc and then they are beholding to those $$$ and like Trump did in his first stay in the WH - lower the taxes and scrutiny of big businesses and all.  Once a politician is elected, instead of working for the citizens and the country, they begin seeking funds for their campaign chest for the next election.  Some spend 30-40 years in government and get very rich but never accomplish anything of note.  November this year could spell the death knell for America in my opinion as neither candidate is capable of fixing the problems in my opinion.

 

[Lacessit]

2 hours ago, petey123 said:

 "genocidal war of choice" is total nonsense.   the ukrainians, urged on by their western puppet masters, were trying to smash russian speakers in the country's east.   after fair warning, russia stepped in to support the "ukrainian" russians who, because of nonsensical decisions imposed by soviet communists, had been left to fend for themselves against ukrainian nationalists (many of whom identify with german nazis).   if you do not believe people should have a right of self-determination, then for you there is something sacred about the former ukrainian soviet socialist republic and its borders - not so for me.         btw,  a substantial minority of ukrainians are russian speakers and identify with russia, not with the arguably artificial country know as ukraine....

The Ukrainian language and alphabet differ from Russian. Under the USSR, the Russian language was compulsory in schools, to assist the process of Russification.

Russian speakers in Ukraine are only there because they were transplanted from Russia in the  1930's. After the Holodomor, in which Stalin killed an estimated 6 million Ukrainians by mass starvation.

Portraying Ukrainians as Nazis is a lie promoted by Putin. True, the Ukrainians welcomed the Germans as liberators during WWII. They quickly learned there was no difference between a Nazi or a Communist jackboot.

Putin signed the Budapest Memorandum in 1994, which guaranteed Ukraine's sovereignty and security in return for Ukraine surrendering its nuclear arsenal. Yeah right.

I don't know what is more disturbing about your post, its abject ignorance of Ukrainian history, or the parroting of Kremlin propaganda.

[frank83628]

On 6/18/2024 at 12:26 PM, Jingthing said:

There I said it.

Thailand plays neutral on Russia's genocidal war of choice against Ukraine, but it's not hard to see a pro Russian bias in reality.

It's about Thailand's national interest, economic interest, not about morality. 

This video speaks of the situation starting at 6:30:

 

 

So of course right or wrong Thailand is a sovereign nation and has the right to set it's own foreign policy, just as Ukraine is a sovereign nation that Russia doesn't want to exist.

 

So as expats, why should we care?

 

Well, maybe we shouldn't, but following the news a new set of sanctions just hit Russia and Putin is freaking out.

It probably won't be the last set of sanctions.

The trend is towards SECONDARY sanctions and BANKS are a prime target.

What am I getting at?

Well if Thailand gets hit with secondary sanctions, it seems to me that expats here dependent on foreign transfers might be hit by that as well,

 

 

 

Ironic that you mention another countries 'morality' when your country has been involved in, or started more illegal wars then all the other countries in the world combined!

[Rimmer]

A post has been removed, if you want your post to remain up suggest do not include baiting flames in it, thank you.

[petey123]

for lacessit:    please read and think before you reply with nonsense.   i wrote that many ukrainian nationalists identify with the german nazis:   e.g. the azov regiment and the wolfsangel emblems prominently displayed by members of that "unit."    i made no attempt to identify all ukrainians as nazis.  you did not address my main point as to why russia entered ukraine - in fact you sound like a propagandist for the american empire and its western vassal states.    reading your post reminded me of the usual drivel found in western media.... 

[Lacessit]

3 hours ago, petey123 said:

for lacessit:    please read and think before you reply with nonsense.   i wrote that many ukrainian nationalists identify with the german nazis:   e.g. the azov regiment and the wolfsangel emblems prominently displayed by members of that "unit."    i made no attempt to identify all ukrainians as nazis.  you did not address my main point as to why russia entered ukraine - in fact you sound like a propagandist for the american empire and its western vassal states.    reading your post reminded me of the usual drivel found in western media.... 

I am responding to your post with facts. If you don't like them, I have others.

On ignore. If you can't disagree without abuse, you're in the bin.