Everything's crashing - help!

[bradiston]

Well, the £ has dropped a baht and a half in a week, and Bitcoin is disappearing south. Is it all interest rate related? Just wait and it will all come back? Hmmmm.

[Celsius]

The final crash will be Thai baht....don't worry.

 

As for crypto, it is NOT a store of value.

[jas007]

12 minutes ago, bradiston said:

Well, the £ has dropped a baht and a half in a week, and Bitcoin is disappearing south. Is it all interest rate related? Just wait and it will all come back? Hmmmm.

A global adjustment of overvalued assets. Some people think it’s primarily the result of the unwinding of the Yen carry trade and too much leverage in the system. Banks may be in trouble, for sure. There’s also a seasonal aspect and, in any event, many assets have been in bubble territory for far too long and are due for a correction.
 

We might see a sharp reversal sometime soon, but don’t count on it.  The typical bear market lasts 18 months or so. One way or the other, it can be an opportunity.

 

Personally, I’m fine so long as the ATM machines keep dispensing Thai baht.

[Tropicalevo]

23 minutes ago, bradiston said:

Well, the £ has dropped a baht and a half in a week, and Bitcoin is disappearing south.

 

That's the problem when you gamble.

Sometimes you win and sometime you loose.

[steven100]

It's simply a correction and a good time to consolidate.  It will jump back in no time.

 

Now's the best time to jump in ....  when others fear ... 

[NativeBob]

great for sell order at binance. good news everyone!

[gargamon]

37 minutes ago, Celsius said:

As for crypto, it is NOT a store of value.

I killed the crypto. Just for fun I put $5000 into a crypto ETF. As always, when I do something like that, the investment tanks. So blame me if you must.

[Celsius]

2 minutes ago, gargamon said:

I killed the crypto. Just for fun I put $5000 into a crypto ETF. As always, when I do something like that, the investment tanks. So blame me if you must.

 

I transferred 500,000 baht a week ago and got 18,500 CAD

 

Today I would get 19,500CAD

 

I killed the Canadian dollar.

[KannikaP]

27 minutes ago, steven100 said:

It's simply a correction and a good time to consolidate.  It will jump back in no time.

 

Now's the best time to jump in ....  when others fear ... 

Buy, buy , buy

[ExpatOilWorker]

41 minutes ago, jas007 said:

A global adjustment of overvalued assets. Some people think it’s primarily the result of the unwinding of the Yen carry trade and too much leverage in the system. Banks may be in trouble, for sure. There’s also a seasonal aspect and, in any event, many assets have been in bubble territory for far too long and are due for a correction.
 

We might see a sharp reversal sometime soon, but don’t count on it.  The typical bear market lasts 18 months or so. One way or the other, it can be an opportunity.

 

Personally, I’m fine so long as the ATM machines keep dispensing Thai baht.

Unemployed is increasing in the US, the Fed is already said it will lower interest rates this year and we are probably in for a wild election.

A slowdown in the US will hurt the exporting economics of Asia. Europe is stagnant and Ursula is all about trade barriers. 

War is brewing in the Middle East, as usual.

Asia have had 27 good years since the Tom yum goong crises in 1997. Time for some pad thai or is it sushi 🍣 this time around?

[spidermike007]

Although many of us would like to see the baht crash, the reality is that the dollar was probably quite overvalued and the US stock markets are grossly overvalued. I expect a huge correction there in the next year or so. We might see the Dow drop to well under 20,000. Or more. 

[Celsius]

6 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Although many of us would like to see the baht crash, the reality is that the dollar was probably quite overvalued and the US stock markets are grossly overvalued. I expect a huge correction there in the next year or so. We might see the Dow drop to well under 20,000. Or more. 

 

Yeah, right. You are like Jim Cramer of predictions. Everything you said about Thailand during covid was wrong.

 

But if you really think Dow is going down to 20k then your stay in Thailand will become very, very uncomfortable.

[Thingamabob]

2 hours ago, Tropicalevo said:

 

That's the problem when you gamble.

Sometimes you win and sometime you loose.

Possibly loose, more likely lose.

[Digitalbanana]

2 hours ago, jas007 said:

We might see a sharp reversal sometime soon, but don’t count on it.  The typical bear market lasts 18 months or so.

This is not a bear market with bonds at 125. A correction that often happens this time of year.

[jas007]

2 hours ago, gargamon said:

I killed the crypto. Just for fun I put $5000 into a crypto ETF. As always, when I do something like that, the investment tanks. So blame me if you must.

There were times in my life when all you had to do was follow me around do the opposite of everything I did. You could be a multimillionaire by now.

[jas007]

1 minute ago, Digitalbanana said:

This is not a bear market with bonds at 125. A correction that often happens this time of year.

Perhaps. But the seasonal aspect is just one factor.  And who do you think is buying all the bonds? 

[steven100]

4 minutes ago, Digitalbanana said:

This is not a bear market with bonds at 125. A correction that often happens this time of year.

Totally agree....  and it will bounce back again very soon.  

[koolkarl]

DXY has a long way to go up and so does the JPY.  Bitcoin to the teens.

[Celsius]

oh look....the scam market is at it again...

 

 

[novacova]

Why anyone would invest in fantical currencies is beyond me. Gold stashed away in a safe is always a sure thing.

[timendres]

You use the word "crashing". This is not crashing.

When that happens, you will not be able to see through your tears to post with your trembling hands.

[NoDisplayName]

Just look at the bright side.

 

Now that world stock markets are tanking and all your unrealized capital gains have vaporized, you won't owe any Thai tax when you remit what's left of your sadly diminished nest egglets.

[Pouatchee]

3 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Although many of us would like to see the baht crash, the reality is that the dollar was probably quite overvalued and the US stock markets are grossly overvalued. I expect a huge correction there in the next year or so. We might see the Dow drop to well under 20,000. Or more. 

 

hey @BuddyPish where are you with your millions of thais suffering if the bht crashes? most foreigners here arent very happy the way things are going... so why arent you dishing out at them?

 

BTW spidermike i totally agree with you, but this guy pish is a thai bleeding heart who thinks he can thrive on FX speculation. he thinks that if one isnt happy with the value of the bht then just go home

 

and i quote him:

Quote

Whenever I read sentiments like this, I assume that the author is having difficulty living comfortably with the exchange rate. 

 

boo hoo to you pish 🤣

[xtrnuno41]

THe last months Ive red many lay offs of companies (msn news). All sorts of companies. I was amazed.

From today Intel is sacking 15000 people !!!! They have 125000 people working, but you arent happy if you are in sacking group.

 

They made public, cocoa had a bad yearly crops and prices went up and now it went down again?! 

Yet it is stil high compared to september last year, but never the less amazing, would have expect to rise more and at least up to next years crops. 

So less buyers due to raise? And now lower because of that? En joy your chocolate while you can.

[ExpatOilWorker]

6 hours ago, steven100 said:

It's simply a correction and a good time to consolidate.  It will jump back in no time.

 

Now's the best time to jump in ....  when others fear ... 

Good luck.

 

[Celsius]

1 hour ago, NoDisplayName said:

Just look at the bright side.

 

Now that world stock markets are tanking and all your unrealized capital gains have vaporized, you won't owe any Thai tax when you remit what's left of your sadly diminished nest egglets.

 

In Thailand you pay taxes even if you have losses.

 

Fact.

 

This is why this country is garbage. 

[bkk6060]

It wont last 18 months.  In fact, I bet the S and P is at a high at the end of the year.

The Fed will start cutting.  Save your cash and get ready to buy!

[Cameroni]

It's interest rate. Everyone anticipated the Fed will cut interest rates soon. This weakens the dollar. Perfectly normal market situation anticipated by most people.

[bradiston]

49 minutes ago, Celsius said:

 

In Thailand you pay taxes even if you have losses.

 

Fact.

 

This is why this country is garbage. 

In Philippines, Capital Gains Tax is applied simply as a sales tax. It's a complete misnomer. There's no allowance for original cost nor cost of improvements, eg building a house. You buy land, you build a house, you sell same. You get taxed on the sale price.

[Gecko123]

The jobs report played a role, but it's looking to me like a lot of this sharp down draft has to do with the yen carry trade.

 

In a nutshell, the unwinding of the yen carry trade is as follows. Foreigners borrowed money in yen because interest rates in Japan were so low. They used the borrowed "free" money to purchase stocks in the hopes of higher returns. Recently, the BOJ started raising interest rates which not only raised borrowing costs in Japanese yen, but has caused the yen to significantly appreciate. With the yen appreciating, the cost of repaying those loans in Japanese yen for foreign borrowers just got more expensive, and in a rush to close out those loans before the yen appreciates further, the assets which were purchased with this borrowed money are being liquidated, which is a big part of the reason why you are seeing these down drafts in the market just yet. 

 

Another indicator that the yen carry trade is what's behind the correction is that the US treasury market stabilized on Tuesday, with the short end of the yield curve actually rising. If fears of a recession were the primary driver behind the sell off, I believe you would have still been seeing bond yields dropping on Tuesday.

 

A word to the Bitcoin fans: fasten your seatbelts. My suspicion is that a lot of that Yen carry trade speculative 'fast-money' investing had to have found its way into crypto-currencies, which is why you saw BTC plunge to around 50K yesterday, and I suspect it has further to go on the downside.