Latest Nate Silver Predicition

[Chwooly]

Who is Nate Silver you ask? 

 

He is an American statistician, writer, and poker player who analyzes baseball, basketball, and elections. He is the founder of FiveThirtyEight. 

 

Let the flaming begin

 

 

[bubblegum]

Congratulations 

[stevenl]

August 14

🟦 Harris: 56.7%

🟥 Trump: 42.7%

.

August 31

🟥 Trump: 55.1% 

🟦 Harris: 44.6%

 

This swing doesn't make sense. Something 's wrong here.

[bubblegum]

Meanwhile in the real world:

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

[riclag]

49 minutes ago, Chwooly said:

Who is Nate Silver you ask? 

 

He is an American statistician, writer, and poker player who analyzes baseball, basketball, and elections. He is the founder of FiveThirtyEight. 

 

Let the flaming begin

 

 

*The best stat ,272.9 ,Predicted Electoral votes.

 

harris 265.1 ! Way to much vibe , not enough of the required electoral votes!

 

There’s still hope for you , USA!

🇺🇸 

Edited September 4 by riclag

[Jingthing]

Wait for Allan Lichtman's final prediction.

COMING SOON!

 

Edited September 4 by Jingthing

[maesariang]

CNN swing state polls are bad for Harris. They were wrong by 7.5 pts before and only 1 pt ahead. 

[Fat is a type of crazy]

2 minutes ago, maesariang said:

CNN swing state polls are bad for Harris. They were wrong by 7.5 pts before and only 1 pt ahead. 

Consider that big pollsters learn from their mistakes. If you can show they did get it wrong election after election  then fair enough but to compare it to one election they got wrong - if they did - isn't something that is really useful information in my opinion. 

[maesariang]

1 minute ago, Fat is a type of crazy said:

Consider that big pollsters learn from their mistakes. If you can show they did get it wrong election after election  then fair enough but to compare it to one election they got wrong - if they did - isn't something that is really useful information in my opinion. 

The polls were more wrong in 2020 than 2016. They are mostly pushing an agenda or simply not reaching broad samples. It is easy to poll one area which is biased. Samples need to be broad.

Edited September 4 by maesariang

[Cameroni]

1 hour ago, bubblegum said:

Meanwhile in the real world:

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

 

Lol, you do realise Nate Silver founded project five thirty eight?

 

 

[maesariang]

14 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Wait for Allan Lichtman's final prediction.

COMING SOON!

 

Weirdo with a bad haircut.

[riclag]

9 minutes ago, maesariang said:

Weirdo with a bad haircut.

How can there be a final prediction?

Trump hasnt debated the loser’s  yet!

[maesariang]

Just now, riclag said:

How can there be a final prediction?

Trump hasnt debated the loser’s  yet!

My prediction will be on 28 Sept.

[Jingthing]

15 minutes ago, riclag said:

How can there be a final prediction?

Trump hasnt debated the loser’s  yet!

His system is not about debates.

It's not about POLLS at all. 

His success rate is remarkable.

He missed Bush vs. Gore but it's arguable that Gore actually won because the supreme court gave it to Bush.

I was surprised though that his final call will probably be before the debate though but based on what he's said, it will be.

Hint -- His final prediction will be Kamala Harris almost definitely. 

Edited September 4 by Jingthing

[maesariang]

3 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

His system is not about debates.

It's not about POLLS at all. 

His success rate is remarkable.

He missed Bush vs. Gore but it's arguable that Gore actually won because the supreme court gave it to Bush.

I was surprised though that his final call will probably be before the debate though but based on what he's said, it will be.

Hint -- His final prediction will be Kamala Harris almost definitely. 

His success rate is not that impressive. Most elections are easy to pick.

[maesariang]

53 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Wait for Allan Lichtman's final prediction.

COMING SOON!

 

He got 2008 and 2016 wrong

 

https://politicalpulse.net/us-politics/alan-lichtmans-prediction-for-2024/

 

Allan Lichtman's

[bubblegum]

8 hours ago, Cameroni said:

 

Lol, you do realise Nate Silver founded project five thirty eight?

 

 

Indeed, just show the misinformation trolls are at it again

[cdnvic]

Intentional misspellings removed.

[earlinclaifornia]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

[earlinclaifornia]

15 hours ago, Jingthing said:

His system is not about debates.

It's not about POLLS at all. 

His success rate is remarkable.

He missed Bush vs. Gore but it's arguable that Gore actually won because the supreme court gave it to Bush.

I was surprised though that his final call will probably be before the debate though but based on what he's said, it will be.

Hint -- His final prediction will be Kamala Harris almost definitely. 

Said it will be shortly after Labor Day final prediction

Trump needs to did deep and come up with an October surprise

[thaibeachlovers]

19 hours ago, stevenl said:

August 14

🟦 Harris: 56.7%

🟥 Trump: 42.7%

.

August 31

🟥 Trump: 55.1% 

🟦 Harris: 44.6%

 

This swing doesn't make sense. Something 's wrong here.

LOL. People are waking up to the reality that is Harris.

[riclag]

To be fair, its harris/ walz!

Also I hope avoiding interviews backfires ! Swing voters need to know what her policies are since the team  ignores answering questions, while they crisscross America doing rallies and state fairs.

 

[sagra]

On 9/4/2024 at 7:34 PM, bubblegum said:

Meanwhile in the real world:

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

Exactly! 

 

On 9/4/2024 at 7:34 PM, bubblegum said:

Meanwhile in the real world:

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

 

[john donson]

unless he is a hacker that found a backdoor in those nice voting machines

[Berkshire]

On 9/4/2024 at 8:32 PM, Jingthing said:

Wait for Allan Lichtman's final prediction.

COMING SOON!

 

Maybe this article is premature...not sure.  But here it is....

 

[Presidential historian Allan Lichtman predicts that Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 election.]

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/historian-allan-lichtman-predicts-who-will-win-the-2024-election/ar-AA1q3IOZ?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=efaa7ffbdf664935dd114d065c3395fb&ei=9

[Jingthing]

17 hours ago, riclag said:

To be fair, its harris/ walz!

Also I hope avoiding interviews backfires ! Swing voters need to know what her policies are since the team  ignores answering questions, while they crisscross America doing rallies and state fairs.

 

You just want her to lose.

[Jingthing]

8 minutes ago, Berkshire said:

Maybe this article is premature...not sure.  But here it is....

 

[Presidential historian Allan Lichtman predicts that Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 election.]

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/historian-allan-lichtman-predicts-who-will-win-the-2024-election/ar-AA1q3IOZ?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=efaa7ffbdf664935dd114d065c3395fb&ei=9

Yes it happened.

The Oracle has spoken!

[maesariang]

19 minutes ago, Berkshire said:

Maybe this article is premature...not sure.  But here it is....

 

[Presidential historian Allan Lichtman predicts that Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 election.]

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/historian-allan-lichtman-predicts-who-will-win-the-2024-election/ar-AA1q3IOZ?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=efaa7ffbdf664935dd114d065c3395fb&ei=9

Why did he give Obama 31% in 2008 then?

[maesariang]

11 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Yes it happened.

The Oracle has spoken!

The weirdo who is selling a book. The guy is a liar. 

[Berkshire]

4 minutes ago, maesariang said:

Why did he give Obama 31% in 2008 then?

Where are you getting your information?  From this article, he predicted that Obama and the Dems would prevail in 2008....

 

[The Keys to the White House firmly pre-
dict a Democratic victory in the popular
vote in 2008. It is most improbable that
the course of events will swing the Keys
back in line for the GOP.]

 

https://www.socialstudies.org/system/files/publications/articles/se_720110.pdf