Today I met the first farang returning home because of exchange rate

[marin]

I wish him all the best and if trying to find work hope he does. But going home after admitting you cant afford Thailand his options are pretty limited hence he will be staying with mom and dad. 

3 minutes ago, Gottfrid said:

You didn´t think about that possibility, right?

I did. 🙃 Feel better?

[BuddyPish]

2 minutes ago, John Drake said:

 

Some things do smell fishy. The US economy may carry debt, but it is the strongest recovering major economy since Covid. And much stronger than Thailand, which also has just announced trillions in infrastructure projects and is still promising 10,000 cash for the digital wallet. Plus the Shins intend to get their people to bust the interest rate at the Bank of Thailand back to much lower levels. Whose economy would you rather have, the US or Thailand's? That's why the baht strength seems scammy.

 

The baht isn't "strong"
The dollar is weak.
So are the currencies of countries that are embarking on a new rate-cutting cycle including the UK and the EU bloc.

The only scam here is that western currencies are taking as long as they are to weaken.
People living here on modest fixed income denominated in USD/GBP/EUR/AUD/CAD etc may have had a great time during the "good old days" of silly exchange rates but that party is over for all but those with larger pensions or stipends.

The authorities here could soon raise the financial criteria for retirement. It's been 800k for 15 years plus and, in the meantime, western money, with the exception of the USD, has weakened significantly while prices of goods and services have risen. More older westerners are getting ill without insurance and the Thais don't want to stretch their resources.

When they pull the trigger, a lot of retirees will be going elsewhere.
 

[John Drake]

Are the financial records of Thai financial officials open to scrutiny for investment conflicts of interest?  Just wondering.

 

Quote

 

Speaking at a press conference today, the commerce minister made clear that he has no personal grudge against the governor, but he believes that allowing the baht to strengthen against the US dollar too much, while the currencies of Thailand’s trading competitors are weak, is not right as it has negatively affected Thai exports.

 

https://world.thaipbs.or.th/detail/54759

 

[Nick Carter icp]

On 9/16/2024 at 11:12 AM, nofarang said:

He said, he loves it here but cannot afford it anymore. As the pound constantly on its way down life for him becomes unbearable expensive. At present under 43 and with the bleak prospective of sliding further he is forced to pull the brake. He was on his way back home. I wonder how many more have given up....

 

   His income would have just been reduced by about 5 % , probably about 700 Baht per week reduction , surely he could manage to rearrange his budget to save 100 Baht per day ?

[TroubleandGrumpy]

For those who seem unaware, the THB has been 'strong' for a long time - this is the GBP to THB for 25 years. For much of that time the GBP was higher than it has been since the Junta took over.  For those also unaware, the world's monetary 'police' are only making sure countries do not Undervalue their currency (like China) so their Exports grow. There is SFA policing of those countries that Overvalue their currency so their Imports cost less. 

 

 

 

[John Drake]

10 minutes ago, BuddyPish said:

The authorities here could soon raise the financial criteria for retirement.

 

On the other hand, they could adjust it downward. They seem desperate to get people to come here for longer periods of time and they especially have their eyes on remittances. They might just elect to go with an adjustable table for retirement. That is, if you live in a poorer less populated province, that province's requirement for retirement might be adjusted to 500,000 or 600,000 per year, while Bangkok remained at 800,000. Why not? I actually overheard a conversation among immigration officers at Nakhon Pathom discussing this exact thing.

[chiang mai]

3 minutes ago, TroubleandGrumpy said:

For those who seem unaware, the THB has been 'strong' for a long time - this is the GBP to THB for 25 years. For much of that time the GBP was higher than it has been since the Junta took over.  For those also unaware, the world's monetary 'police' are only making sure countries do not Undervalue their currency (like China) so their Exports grow. There is SFA policing of those countries that Overvalue their currency so their Imports cost less. 

 

 

 

Two points:

 

GBP has been weakening since Bretton Woods, the Pound has been on a downwards slope for decades.

 

 

https://www.macrotrends.net/2549/pound-dollar-exchange-rate-historical-chart

 

Second: the US Fed actively monitors currencies against USD, for currency manipulation and frequently puts various countries on their watch list. That encourages countries to import more goods from, the US. The following link explains:

 

https://www.cfr.org/article/tracking-currency-manipulation

 

 

 

 

[BuddyPish]

2 minutes ago, TroubleandGrumpy said:

For those who seem unaware, the THB has been 'strong' for a long time - this is the GBP to THB for 25 years. For much of that time the GBP was higher than it has been since the Junta took over.  For those also unaware, the world's monetary 'police' are only making sure countries do not Undervalue their currency (like China) so their Exports grow. There is SFA policing of those countries that Overvalue their currency so their Imports cost less. 

 

 

 

 

The baht hasn't been particularly strong for extended periods. 
It is the currencies of western countries living beyond their means that have weakened against the baht.
The dollar gets a temporary pass because it's the global reserve currency for now

Sterling has been hid particularly hard but I can't seem to make some of my countrymen here accept that things like the 2008 financial crisis and the Brexit referendum effectively eviscerated the pound. They seem to think the "problem" is on the Thai side when there is irrefutable evidence that it's all been on ours.

[Mike Teavee]

On 9/16/2024 at 11:12 AM, nofarang said:

He said, he loves it here but cannot afford it anymore. As the pound constantly on its way down life for him becomes unbearable expensive. At present under 43 and with the bleak prospective of sliding further he is forced to pull the brake. He was on his way back home. I wonder how many more have given up....

If UK State Pension represents a large part of his Retirement Budget he could be feeling the impact of inflation more than FX changes as he might not (legally shouldn't) be getting any annual increases so could have missed out on a 10.1% uplift in 2023 & a 6.7% uplift this year.

 

Edit: If he's lived here for many years he could have missed out on a lot of money from annual increases so every year sees his income stay flat (FX changes aside) while inflation continues to eat into his budget... 

https://www.redbridge.gov.uk/pensions/pension-increase-yearly-increase-table/

 

Quick calculation shows that if he's been here for 10 years & his State Pension is frozen it would be approx. 33.5% lower than if he lived somewhere (e.g. Philippines) where it wasn't frozen.

 

  

Edited September 17 by Mike Teavee

[BritManToo]

13 minutes ago, BuddyPish said:

 

It is the currencies of western countries living beyond their means that have weakened against the baht.
The dollar gets a temporary pass because it's the global reserve currency for now

Western currency losses are due to Japan raising interest rates.

 

Previously with Japan charging under 3%, the big big boys were borrowing billions of Yen at 0-3% then buying western currencies to short term invest at 5-7%. This devalues the Yen and boosts the price of the western currencies. Then Japan raised their interest rates, so they sell their western investments, sell the western currency and buy Yen. Cashing in their profits and reversing the flow.

 

Nobody in their right mind borrows money to invest in Thailand. So the Baht is not affected by this seesaw of buying and selling.

Edited September 17 by BritManToo

[Gottfrid]

39 minutes ago, marin said:

I wish him all the best and if trying to find work hope he does. But going home after admitting you cant afford Thailand his options are pretty limited hence he will be staying with mom and dad. 

I did. 🙃 Feel better?

Why would he need to stay with mom and dad then? Do you know his qualifications or education? Maybe he can get a good paying job. However, if just get medium, I am pretty sure he can fins a cheap room to start with.

[KhunLA]

That's just silly, as exchange rates fluctuate.  Unless from UK, and got here when it was 70-60-50 to the GBP.  Thanks to Brexit, so not Thailand's fault.

 

For Yank, as example, any research will show for past 15ish years, it's been steady between 30-35 to the USD.  rarely dipping below, or over.

 

IF a 10% fluctuation is going to send you packing, you probably shouldn't have been here to begin with.

 

Better retirement planning = happier retirement

 

 

Edited September 17 by KhunLA

[sammieuk1]

I had a £100k in a Turkish bank and made sometimes £6.5k in a morning on the exchange rate times were great then Erdogan' the coup faker showed up and my luck ran out I left and the £100k was now worth £54k                            (today worth £1208) with even more Erdogan'.

 

Fed up with the hammering I shifted it here and after delay after delay it arrived here on the morning of the Brexit result shock horror the pound fell off mount Everest never to recover (A river of tears).

 

On the 20th of july the pound hit 47.5=47.00 at the bank time to change after a 9 year wait, a nine year high! but it was a weekend and by Monday it was on a one way bullet train decline again. 

 

Lucky for me I had inheritance at the right time bought a house and slashed costs the thought of falling into two Tier Kiers UK clutches is a price too high to pay  🤔

 

 

[Tidal wave]

7 minutes ago, sammieuk1 said:

I had a £100k in a Turkish bank and made sometimes £6.5k in a morning on the exchange rate times were great then Erdogan' the coup faker showed up and my luck ran out I left and the £100k was now worth £54k                            (today worth £1208) with even more Erdogan'.

 

Fed up with the hammering I shifted it here and after delay after delay it arrived here on the morning of the Brexit result shock horror the pound fell off mount Everest never to recover (A river of tears).

 

On the 20th of july the pound hit 47.5=47.00 at the bank time to change after a 9 year wait, a nine year high! but it was a weekend and by Monday it was on a one way bullet train decline again. 

 

Lucky for me I had inheritance at the right time bought a house and slashed costs the thought of falling into two Tier Kiers UK clutches is a price too high to pay  🤔

 

 

Agree poor unpredictable exchange rates can be as bad as poor health for an expat.  

[timendres]

On 9/16/2024 at 12:13 PM, chiang mai said:

If he didn't budget for 25, he didn't do his homework.

 

I think the exchange rate is one of the most commonly ignored risks of being an expat.

I have a budget based on 25 USDTHB - which was the old "peg".

I originally felt this was a level never to be seen again in my lifetime.

The US Government seems hellbent on proving me wrong...

[JimTripper]

On 9/16/2024 at 11:38 AM, marin said:

Bummer he did not really have enough money to live here. Going back home where the cost of living is more does not really make sense unless he is moving back in with mom and dad.  

Or working. He is allowed to work there.

[John Drake]

2 hours ago, EVENKEEL said:

Or it could hit 40 for usd. I like my prediction better.

 

Why not? I've been hearing about doom for the dollar since 1971. And it's always the cranks and the kooks who are leading the parade. People like Peter Schiff have been predicting an eminent dollar collapse for 20 years. The only thing that collapsed, however, was his bank in Puerto Rico. They're out there today stronger than ever, doomsday preppers thinking that a dollar collapse is right around the country. They'll spend their lives and go to their graves thinking they were right, while the world marches onwards. With the dollar as the reserve currency.

[JimTripper]

2 minutes ago, John Drake said:

Why not? I've been hearing about doom for the dollar since 1971. And it's always the cranks and the kooks who are leading the parade. People like Peter Schiff have been predicting an eminent dollar collapse for 20 years. The only thing that collapsed, however, was his bank in Puerto Rico. They're out there today stronger than ever, doomsday preppers thinking that a dollar collapse is right around the country. They'll spend their lives and go to their graves thinking they were right, while the world marches onwards. With the dollar as the reserve currency.

A lot of that is people selling newsletters & subscriptions. They pick a big currency or commodity move that's on a huge time frame so it never really materializes, although it may be a legit move eventually.

 

The longer people expect something to happen the harder it is to let go of the idea. Meanwhile they are paying for the subscription.

[NativeBob]

2 hours ago, Gottfrid said:

Or, unless he go back and work again. You didn´t think about that possibility, right?

TH makes people very lazy, they loose that "stamina" and "drive"

This is "sabai-sabai" country. I knew one man who was so happy to finally move from TH with his family to CA just to work as Pizza delivery courier. Here he had an agency, house and big black sedan

[marin]

6 minutes ago, NativeBob said:

H makes people very lazy, they loose that "stamina" and "drive"

This is "sabai-sabai" country. I knew one man who was so happy to finally move from TH with his family to CA just to work as Pizza delivery courier.

He is going to be very poor. Rent, food, and medical will break him quickly in California. Was just there and the cost of living blew my mind. Almost double of before covid. 

[theblether]

43 isn't a bad rate over the last few years. The last time I remember the rate being quite healthy was around Jan 2016 when I got 54.7 baht to the £. 

 

Ah, those were the days. 

[Pouatchee]

3 hours ago, BuddyPish said:

"Friends"??!!

Hahahahaha 
Seriously, you need to get some kind of life away from posting your butthurt on this forum.

I think people already know what I think about finance/economic/trading etc

I think quite a few would share my view on people moving here without first making allowances for fluctuations in exchange rates, especially if they've retired.
 

 

foul mouth again... the best sign of someone bowing out with no defense. maybe you need to stop your steroid treatment... i hear roids make people angry... on the other hand you seem to need a crutch to help you compensate. i guess people with no bullocks need it

btw, i doubt anyone listens to tour gibberish advice on FX

Edited September 17 by Pouatchee

[stupidfarang]

43.69 today on Wise transfer, not the best, 

[Seppius]

12 minutes ago, stupidfarang said:

43.69 today on Wise transfer, not the best, 

Offering 44.02 now, so looking hopeful

[BuddyPish]

2 hours ago, BritManToo said:

Western currency losses are due to Japan raising interest rates.

 

Previously with Japan charging under 3%, the big big boys were borrowing billions of Yen at 0-3% then buying western currencies to short term invest at 5-7%. This devalues the Yen and boosts the price of the western currencies. Then Japan raised their interest rates, so they sell their western investments, sell the western currency and buy Yen. Cashing in their profits and reversing the flow.

 

Nobody in their right mind borrows money to invest in Thailand. So the Baht is not affected by this seesaw of buying and selling.

 

The yen carry trade unwinds pretty regularly whenever the BoJ wades into the market to tinker with it . . . Western currencies have remained steady.
It is the prospect of falling interest rates in USA, EU, UK etc that is weakening them now, not the unwinding of the carry trade.

[BuddyPish]

43 minutes ago, Pouatchee said:

 

foul mouth again... the best sign of someone bowing out with no defense. maybe you need to stop your steroid treatment... i hear roids make people angry... on the other hand you seem to need a crutch to help you compensate. i guess people with no bullocks need it

btw, i doubt anyone listens to tour gibberish advice on FX

 

You're the one who seems angry, unable to move on from a two month-old conversation about exchange rates.
Pure beta male vibes

[Pouatchee]

16 minutes ago, BuddyPish said:

 

You're the one who seems angry, unable to move on from a two month-old conversation about exchange rates.
Pure beta male vibes

 

youre the expert on testosterone... or the lack of it. probably better advice than your financial one. have a high pitched voice yet? 

Edited September 17 by Pouatchee

[nauseus]

51 minutes ago, theblether said:

43 isn't a bad rate over the last few years. The last time I remember the rate being quite healthy was around Jan 2016 when I got 54.7 baht to the £. 

 

Ah, those were the days. 

 

The real "days" were late Jan / early Feb 1998, when the pound briefly went to 90 after the 1997 tom yam kung party.

 

In the early 80's, 35 was common and the pound briefly went to 28 during that period (1984).

 

So 43 is only a fair average over the last 10 years. People coming here should be prepared for less. 

[HauptmannUK]

Post-2016 43THB is actually pretty good. I suspect the killer for many UK expats is the frozen pension.

[nauseus]

2 hours ago, John Drake said:

 

Why not? I've been hearing about doom for the dollar since 1971. And it's always the cranks and the kooks who are leading the parade. People like Peter Schiff have been predicting an eminent dollar collapse for 20 years. The only thing that collapsed, however, was his bank in Puerto Rico. They're out there today stronger than ever, doomsday preppers thinking that a dollar collapse is right around the country. They'll spend their lives and go to their graves thinking they were right, while the world marches onwards. With the dollar as the reserve currency.

 

I really hope you are right but there are far more arguments for a dollar decline these days. I think the main argument is not made by any one individual but rather by the sheer enormity of US debt of all kinds. The BRICS allianace seems disposed to break the dominance of the US Dollar as well.