Election savant Nate Silver has put his marker down and revealed his “gut says” that former President Donald Trump will emerge victorious in the Nov. 5 election, while warning that polling data indicate the race could still go either way.

“In an election where the seven battleground states are all polling within a percentage point or two, 50-50 is the only responsible forecast,” Silver, whose model currently rates the Republican nominee with a 53.1% chance of becoming the 47th president, wrote in a New York Times op-ed published Tuesday.
https://nypost.com/2024/10/23/us-news/famed-polling-guru-nate-silvers-gut-says-donald-trump-will-win-2024-presidential-election/

I suggest Tums for Silver's gut.

My brain says Harris with a narrow electoral win but Trump fighting like a rabid dog to take power anyway.

Gut feelings from James Carville who has actually run and won a presidential campaign (also as OP re-told from NY Times):

 

Carville lists 3 reasons why he thinks Harris will win
10/23/24 7:58 AM ET

 

“The biggest reason Mr. Trump will lose is that the whole Republican Party has been on a losing streak since Mr. Trump took it over,” he wrote in an essay published Wednesday by The New York Times.

 

The veteran Democratic adviser also noted that the Harris’s campaign’s fundraising advantage will likely play a huge part in turning out swing-state voters, particularly suburban women. The Democratic nominee’s campaign raised almost $360 million in September and more than $1 billion since joining the White House race in late July — after President Biden stepped aside.

 

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4948471-james-carville-kamala-harris-victory-2024-reasons-why/

 

I rate Allan Lichtman over Silver any day.
Nate basis his predictions on nothing but polling results, which can change.
Allan has his 13 keys that he uses and has correctly predicted all outcomes except Gore versus Bush, (and he claims that was a stolen election).

No doubt as his keys do not point to a Trump win, Maga's will now try and denigrate his methods, or the guy himself.

https://thehill.com/video/nate-silver-is-wrong-kamala-harris-will-win-allan-lichtman-predicts/10025044/

Nate Silver is always wrong.