Not inc;luding independents - the current state of play according to NBC early voting figures 

 

Arizona - R 42% D 35%

Nevada - R 40% D 35%

Georgia - R 49% D 45%

N Carolina - R 34% D33% 

 

Wisconsin - D 36% R 23%

Michigan - D 48% R 41% 

Penn State - D 59% R 31%

 

So at this rate if one of the blue wall states crack then Trump wins. 

 

Source - https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote

Point of note - Nevada early voting ends on Friday. 

Another point of note - the Dems had an early voting lead of 1.1 million over the GOP back in 2020. They lost the election day turnout by a vast margin. 

 

IMO, they need to be ahead 900,000 this time to be confident of victory. Absolute minimum of 700,000 and that will give the DNC sleepless nights. Current lead is around 400,000. 

It is a good question. What matters is whether the GOP turnout is new voters who are eager to make their choice, or if they are simply cannibalizing voters who are simply voting early instead of on election day. Remains to be seen.  This is why IMHO the polling averages and trends tend to matter more than simple early  turnout.

Need those Independent numbers NBC!

1 hour ago, theblether said:

Another point of note - the Dems had an early voting lead of 1.1 million over the GOP back in 2020. They lost the election day turnout by a vast margin. 

 

IMO, they need to be ahead 900,000 this time to be confident of victory. Absolute minimum of 700,000 and that will give the DNC sleepless nights. Current lead is around 400,000. 

 

Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Michigan have already announced that counting will take place long after election day to achieve their desired result.

12 minutes ago, riclag said:

Need those Independent numbers NBC!

 

The total numbers are available but no one knows how they voted. It's reckoned that 95% plus of party affiliated voters vote with their party. 

31 minutes ago, Hanaguma said:

It is a good question. What matters is whether the GOP turnout is new voters who are eager to make their choice, or if they are simply cannibalizing voters who are simply voting early instead of on election day. Remains to be seen.  This is why IMHO the polling averages and trends tend to matter more than simple early  turnout.

 

Polling averages don't matter now. The votes are flooding in at numbers no pollster could attempt to sample. 

 

A Dem analyst in Nevada reckons there's a high turnout of low preponderance voters in red areas. He says at the current rate he'll be able to call Nevada for Trump before election day. 

 

That's due to his estimated total turnout. I don't care what anyone says - no one anticipated Biden being hammered in Nevada. The substitution of Harris has not helped. 

 

 

1 minute ago, theblether said:

Nevada

 

 

 

They can count ballots for 3 days after the election. Anything can happen with an operation like that.

10 minutes ago, Talon said:

 

Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Michigan have already announced that counting will take place long after election day to achieve their desired result.

 

The 5th Circuit Appeals court has already ruled that votes received after election day cannot be counted. 

 

Nevada Supreme Court ruled that they could. The GOP will appeal today to the 9th Circuit Appeal court and they are in a no lose situation. 

 

If the 9th Court agrees, the practice of counting late ballots will end. If they disagree, the issue will arrive at the Supreme Court and they will rule late ballots cannot be counted. 

 

It won't help this election cycle unless the 9th Circuit orders the late ballots to be quarantined. In the unlikely event there's enough to affect the election result the 9th Circuit will have to rule in November ( replay of Florida 2000 )

You know something that you American conservatives forget? 

 

Your constant harping on about the Dems cheating is the best way to subdue Republican turnout. 

 

You are literally telling people it's a waste of time voting. Then you wonder why you lose states by 10,000 votes ( Georgia ). 

 

Just promote voting by Republicans, stop putting people off. 

9 minutes ago, theblether said:

 

The 5th Circuit Appeals court has already ruled that votes received after election day cannot be counted. 

 

Democrat counties will not follow the law, and the Democrat DOJ will not prosecute. Watch how fast nothing happens.

Much more useful info to know -- GENDER breakdown.

This election is all about WOMEN voting.

Yes even REPUBLICAN women.

As before, I see Harris winning probably narrowly but the maga fascists fighting like mad to overturn the election (as they tried to do last time and still haven't conceded the loss).

 

1 minute ago, Talon said:

 

Democrat counties will not follow the law, and the Democrat DOJ will not prosecute. Watch how fast nothing happens.

Total garbage.

1 hour ago, theblether said:

Another point of note - the Dems had an early voting lead of 1.1 million over the GOP back in 2020. They lost the election day turnout by a vast margin. 

 

IMO, they need to be ahead 900,000 this time to be confident of victory. Absolute minimum of 700,000 and that will give the DNC sleepless nights. Current lead is around 400,000. 

 

To clarify. That post was referring to Pennsylvania. 

5 minutes ago, theblether said:

 

To clarify. That post was referring to Pennsylvania. 

Pennsylvania will be in the Harris column thanks to the wonderful and large PUERTO RICAN community there. So when Trump loses the election, instead of blaming the Jews (as he has disgustingly said he will do if he loses) perhaps he will blame the Puerto Ricans too. My hope is this attention will stimulate a fresh push for Puerto Rican STATEHOOD.

7 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Pennsylvania will be in the Harris column thanks to the wonderful and large PUERTO RICAN community there. So when Trump loses the election, instead of blaming the Jews (as he has disgustingly said he will do if he loses) perhaps he will blame the Puerto Ricans too. My hope is this attention will stimulate a fresh push for Puerto Rican STATEHOOD.

Why do you assume that PR-Americans have no sense of humour? Or that they are so shallow that an off-colour joke would prompt them to vote against their own family interests? Talk about the soft bigotry of low expectations!

3 minutes ago, Hanaguma said:

Why do you assume that PR-Americans have no sense of humour? Or that they are so shallow that an off-colour joke would prompt them to vote against their own family interests? Talk about the soft bigotry of low expectations!

You don't know anything about Puerto Ricans and how they have been so disrespected and not seen as the citizens that they are, the history of Puerto Rico, the previous racist attacks by Trump on Puerto Ricans, and the disgusting way Trump mistreated Puerto Ricans after their two big storms, cutting off aid but throwing paper towels at them like zoo animals during his term with the clear reason that he didn't worry about their state in the next election because they're not a state, do you?

It wasn't an off color joke.

It was a PUNCH DOWN RACIST attack at a white nationalist event.

Also that was vetted by the Trump campaign and they approved it!

So when they say now it doesn't reflect them, they are LYING. 

2 hours ago, theblether said:

Point of note - Nevada early voting ends on Friday. 

There are 1,300,000 absentee ballots in Nevada still to be counted.

1 hour ago, Jingthing said:

You don't know anything about Puerto Ricans and how they have been so disrespected and not seen as the citizens that they are, the history of Puerto Rico, the previous racist attacks by Trump on Puerto Ricans, and the disgusting way Trump mistreated Puerto Ricans after their two big storms, cutting off aid but throwing paper towels at them like zoo animals during his term with the clear reason that he didn't worry about their state in the next election because they're not a state, do you?

It wasn't an off color joke.

It was a PUNCH DOWN RACIST attack at a white nationalist event.

Also that was vetted by the Trump campaign and they approved it!

So when they say now it doesn't reflect them, they are LYING. 

A white nationalist event? With holocaust survivors, Hindus, Jews, and African Americans all speaking... in support of the man who promoted the Abraham Accords and moved the US Embassy to Jerusalem, and has Jewish grandkids. 

 

Sure, "white nationalist". Pull the other one, it has bells on. 

17 minutes ago, Hanaguma said:

A white nationalist event? With holocaust survivors, Hindus, Jews, and African Americans all speaking... in support of the man who promoted the Abraham Accords and moved the US Embassy to Jerusalem, and has Jewish grandkids. 

 

Sure, "white nationalist". Pull the other one, it has bells on. 

 

Leftist narratives are always crushed by reality.

Nevada - Jon Ralston, a Dem analyst, is reporting that only 250,000 early votes have been received in Clark County. In 2020, it was 457,000. 

 

Clark County is a Dem stronghold. Trump's no tax on tips policy has the Catering Union sitting on its hands. Won't vote for him, won't vote against. 

 

Political malpractice again? Trump beat Harris to the punch. She has adopted the same policy but Trump has all the headlines. 

 

If Clark County doesn't show up for the Dems, it's a certainty than Nevada goes red. 

8 hours ago, Hanaguma said:

Why do you assume that PR-Americans have no sense of humour? Or that they are so shallow that an off-colour joke would prompt them to vote against their own family interests? Talk about the soft bigotry of low expectations!

Well jee hanaguma when you cr@p on one’s family their identity their island the very fiber of their being they tend to take umbrage .rightfully so I might add+ the shamfull debacle of the hurricane response they ain’t stupid.

2 hours ago, theblether said:

Nevada - Jon Ralston, a Dem analyst, is reporting that only 250,000 early votes have been received in Clark County. In 2020, it was 457,000. 

 

Clark County is a Dem stronghold. Trump's no tax on tips policy has the Catering Union sitting on its hands. Won't vote for him, won't vote against. 

 

Political malpractice again? Trump beat Harris to the punch. She has adopted the same policy but Trump has all the headlines. 

 

If Clark County doesn't show up for the Dems, it's a certainty than Nevada goes red. 

Clark County mailed out ballots late this year. There are still 1.6 million ballots yet to be received by the county.

 

The people who sent you the talking points didn't tell you the whole story.

2 hours ago, theblether said:

 

 

Clark County is a Dem stronghold. Trump's no tax on tips policy has the Catering Union sitting on its hands. Won't vote for him, won't vote against. 

As Early Vote in Nevada enters final week, Culinary Union drives Nevada’s strongest political program with statewide “Trump is for Trump” billboard campaign and 900,000+ door-knocking canvassing program -

 

The people sending you talking points are lying to you.

11 hours ago, Jingthing said:

You don't know anything about Puerto Ricans and how they have been so disrespected and not seen as the citizens that they are, the history of Puerto Rico, the previous racist attacks by Trump on Puerto Ricans, and the disgusting way Trump mistreated Puerto Ricans after their two big storms, cutting off aid but throwing paper towels at them like zoo animals during his term with the clear reason that he didn't worry about their state in the next election because they're not a state, do you?

It wasn't an off color joke.

It was a PUNCH DOWN RACIST attack at a white nationalist event.

Also that was vetted by the Trump campaign and they approved it!

So when they say now it doesn't reflect them, they are LYING. 

As usual, expressing your ignorance in a rant based on nothing you have ever studied yourself vis a vis just regurgitating the propaganda you read on MSNBC and CNN

2 hours ago, Tug said:

Well jee hanaguma when you cr@p on one’s family their identity their island the very fiber of their being they tend to take umbrage .rightfully so I might add+ the shamfull debacle of the hurricane response they ain’t stupid.

Is that what happened? The joke was about the island, not the identity of .... why am I trying to explain a joke?

 

Suffice to say that the problem of waste in Puerto Rico has been in the news, it is well known among informed people.  Therefore a valid topic for humour.

 

Democrats are grasping at straws to fake outrage at a joke that a comedian told, rather than grappling with the actual issues that voters care about. 

47 minutes ago, Hanaguma said:

Is that what happened? The joke was about the island, not the identity of .... why am I trying to explain a joke?

 

Suffice to say that the problem of waste in Puerto Rico has been in the news, it is well known among informed people.  Therefore a valid topic for humour.

 

Democrats are grasping at straws to fake outrage at a joke that a comedian told, rather than grappling with the actual issues that voters care about. 

Puerto Rican Celebrities For Harris Could Reach Over 300 Million Followers

 

 

50 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

As usual, expressing your ignorance in a rant based on nothing you have ever studied yourself vis a vis just regurgitating the propaganda you read on MSNBC and CNN

Trump's mismanagement of the Hurricane Maria tragedy is the basis of the Puerto Rican distaste of Trump.

2 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Trump's mismanagement of the Hurricane Maria tragedy is the basis of the Puerto Rican distaste of Trump.

Are you Puerto Rican? Ever been there?

 

Oh, and your celebrities? Folks who pay attention to those vacuous hedonists usually vote Democratic anyway.