Why Nigel Farage Could Really Be Prime Minister by 2029

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Why Nigel Farage Could Really Be Prime Minister by 2029

 

For over a decade, Nigel Farage has insisted that British politics is on the verge of a fundamental realignment. Last Thursday, as Reform UK surged in local elections, winning 677 council seats, two mayoralties and a parliamentary by-election, that long-promised realignment began to take form in earnest. And for the first time, the idea of Farage becoming Prime Minister is no longer far-fetched.

 

The key to understanding this shift lies in a single figure: 30 per cent. According to polling expert John Curtice’s BBC analysis, Reform’s support nationally would have hovered around that mark if elections had been held across all of Great Britain. And in the first-past-the-post system, 30 per cent is a magic number. It’s the threshold at which a party, especially in a fractured multi-party landscape, starts to benefit from the system rather than be punished by it.

 

Labour won a commanding majority last year on just 35 per cent of the vote. In a similar scenario, Reform could conceivably do the same. Farage himself declared on Friday, “Today marks the end of two-party politics — it is finished.” But in truth, this moment doesn’t spell the end of the two-party system. Rather, it marks the potential replacement of one of its pillars: the Conservative Party.

 

That’s precisely what has Tory MPs terrified. Reform’s gains came largely at the Conservatives’ expense, with the Tories losing nearly two-thirds of their local councillors. For the first time, Tory MPs are beginning to see Reform not as a protest vehicle or pressure group, but as a real and present threat — one that could unseat them at the next general election.

 

It’s not just Conservative voters that Reform is attracting. The party outperformed Labour in areas such as Runcorn, Hull, Doncaster, and Durham. But Labour retains a core base that would never dream of voting for Farage, whereas the Conservatives lack such insulation. That makes Reform a more immediate danger to the Tories, and Farage knows it.

 

Among those watching the results with a vested interest was Liz Truss. She quickly took to social media to rail against the “leftist, globalist ideology” she claims has captured Britain’s institutions, calling for a crusade against the “unelected state” and praising Farage’s recent electoral success. There’s little doubt she would like to be invited into his camp — Farage even lauded her disastrous 2022 mini-Budget as “the best Conservative Budget since 1986.” Behind the scenes, she’s reportedly been in talks with figures close to Reform about how to “take on the system.”

 

But she is unlikely to receive an invitation. For all his populist bombast, Farage is politically shrewd. He knows that association with someone like Truss — whose premiership collapsed amid economic meltdown — would taint his brand. Sir Keir Starmer certainly understands this; at Prime Minister’s Questions, he jokingly linked Farage to Truss in a jab that was meant to damage both. And Farage, for his part, has learned over the years to avoid the very “swivel-eyed loons” that David Cameron once warned about.

 

That growing professionalism was visible in Reform’s campaign last week, which was significantly better organised than past efforts under the UKIP or Brexit Party banners. Opponents can no longer rely on Reform candidates being underprepared or self-destructive. They may well be — many are first-timers, after all — but they are going up against a demoralised, cash-strapped Conservative Party and a Labour government still finding its footing.

 

To Starmer’s credit, he acknowledged the seriousness of the public mood. Writing in The Times, he rejected the idea that Reform’s gains were a mere “mid-term protest,” opting instead for a sober pledge: “More money in your pocket, lower NHS waiting lists, lower immigration numbers.” These are the right goals — but they will be tough to meet. Britain faces economic headwinds, the burden of the Ukraine war, and depleted public finances after years of crisis management. The NHS remains overwhelmed, and illegal Channel crossings continue to rise, with Starmer appearing no closer to a solution than Rishi Sunak or any of his predecessors.

 

All of this gives Farage a clear narrative. He is the man who “gets it,” who listens to the anger of the ignored, and who now has a credible electoral machine behind him. If Reform can maintain or even build on its 30 per cent share, it won’t just supplant the Conservatives — it could win outright.

It’s too early to forecast the exact contours of a 2029 general election. Britain’s politics remain volatile, and Farage’s movement is still untested on the national stage. But the ingredients are there: a populist insurgent with national name recognition, an established media presence, an electorate disillusioned with both main parties, and a voting system that now works in his favour.

 

So yes, Nigel Farage could really be prime minister — not in a hypothetical fantasy, but in the hard arithmetic of British politics. If Reform holds its ground and consolidates the right while Labour struggles to deliver on tough promises, the unthinkable may become inevitable.

 

  Adpated by ASEAN Now from The Independent  2025-05-06

 

 

[Smokey and the Bandit]

Well one hing is for certain, he CANNOT be any worse than what the UK has now for P.M!!

[newbee2022]

20 minutes ago, Smokey and the Bandit said:

Well one hing is for certain, he CANNOT be any worse than what the UK has now for P.M!!

Why do you think Starmer is "worse" ??

[blazes]

8 minutes ago, newbee2022 said:

Why do you think Starmer is "worse" ??

 

Have you heard him speak? Or squeak......

[JonnyF]

Hopefully the Tories fold, the real conservatives like Jenrick go to Reform and the fake conservatives like Rory Stewart can join Labour or Green or Queers for Palestine or whatever keeps him busy enough to stay away from the bookies.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14048179/Ex-Cabinet-minister-Rory-Stewart-faces-losing-HUGE-sum-money-betting-big-win-Kamala-Harris-election.html

 

If there is anything we've learned since Labour came to power, it's that splitting the right wing vote is devestating for Britain and it's indigenous people.

 

 

[blazes]

It's worth recalling that Boris, with all his baggage, managed in 2019 to sweep whole swathes of the North that were previously solidly Labour.

If those Labour voters could desert their roots for a Tory, imagine how much easier will be their drift to a party that listens to those voters' main concern:  unlimited immigration. (Which will still be their main concern in 2029, because Starmer's love-affair with the European Human Rights code will still be burning bright.)

[newbee2022]

9 minutes ago, blazes said:

 

Have you heard him speak? Or squeak......

No problem for me. Important for me is WHAT he's saying.

[frank83628]

18 minutes ago, newbee2022 said:

Why do you think Starmer is "worse" ??

Because up untill the court judgement last week Stamer refused, wen questioned, to define a woman.

He is a weak man who is more  the WEF than the UK citizens.

[Dionigi]

Traditionally, local elections are where people vote their displeasure, this does not usually show in national elections.

[blazes]

2 minutes ago, newbee2022 said:

No problem for me. Important for me is WHAT he's saying.

 

Frankly I have never forgiven him for taking that unutterably stupid knee in his office back in the 2020 days when Floyd the drug dealer was all the rage.....

What was he "saying" by taking that knee????????

[mikeymike100]

As long as Farage keeps his promise to deport all the illegals and asylum seekers who arrived in the UK thru a 'safe' country, and leaving the ECHR he will be a breath of fresh air!

[blazes]

6 minutes ago, Dionigi said:

Traditionally, local elections are where people vote their displeasure, this does not usually show in national elections.

 

"Usually" maybe, but in the 2019 General Election, thousands and thousands of people voted their displeasure by (erroneously) believing that Boris would finally get Brexit "done."

[Dionigi]

Just now, blazes said:

 

"Usually" maybe, but in the 2019 General Election, thousands and thousands of people voted their displeasure by (erroneously) believing that Boris would finally get Brexit "done."

he was still mainstream political party. The greens and other lesser parties have never fared as well in general elections as they do in local elections.

[mark5335]

Making plans.

[Social Media]

@bubblegum your post has been removed

 

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[Smokey and the Bandit]

47 minutes ago, newbee2022 said:

Why do you think Starmer is "worse" ??

Well immigration for a start.

Labor promised to end hotel use but has seen a net increase in hotels (from 213 to 220 by January 2025). Efforts to reduce costs include clearing the backlog and increasing dispersal accommodation, but costs remain high

High spending on asylum hotels (£3 billion annually) fuels voter discontent, especially among working-class and Brexit-supporting communities who see it as a misuse of taxpayer money while domestic issues like the cost-of-living crisis persist. This perception strengthens anti-immigration parties like Reform UK, contributing to Labor’s declining support

Labors decision to reduce the, cut, the winter fuel payment for pensioners has been highly controversial

Labor’s budget, criticized for raising taxes and increasing borrowing costs, has been blamed for economic slowdown, higher inflation, and business closures. The International Monetary Fund’s warning about Labor’s policies pushing UK inflation to the highest in the G7 has fueled perceptions of economic mismanagement.

Starmer’s campaign promises, such as no tax rises, were perceived as broken when taxes increased post-election. This has eroded trust, with voters feeling misled about Labor’s economic plans.

 

 

[JAG]

38 minutes ago, blazes said:

 

Frankly I have never forgiven him for taking that unutterably stupid knee in his office back in the 2020 days when Floyd the drug dealer was all the rage.....

What was he "saying" by taking that knee????????

Yes it was outrageous - apart from anything else, that shiny blue suit was quite the nastiest outfit ever to have been seen on a British politician - even Screaming Lord Sutch was usually better dressed!

 

No wander Lord Ali felt the need to buy him some decent clothes!

[Eloquent pilgrim]

1 hour ago, newbee2022 said:

Why do you think Starmer is "worse" ??

 

Comedy gold; many thanks 

 

 

[Chomper Higgot]

 

 

29 minutes ago, Smokey and the Bandit said:

Well immigration for a start.

Labor promised to end hotel use but has seen a net increase in hotels (from 213 to 220 by January 2025). Efforts to reduce costs include clearing the backlog and increasing dispersal accommodation, but costs remain high

High spending on asylum hotels (£3 billion annually) fuels voter discontent, especially among working-class and Brexit-supporting communities who see it as a misuse of taxpayer money while domestic issues like the cost-of-living crisis persist. This perception strengthens anti-immigration parties like Reform UK, contributing to Labor’s declining support

Labors decision to reduce the, cut, the winter fuel payment for pensioners has been highly controversial

Labor’s budget, criticized for raising taxes and increasing borrowing costs, has been blamed for economic slowdown, higher inflation, and business closures. The International Monetary Fund’s warning about Labor’s policies pushing UK inflation to the highest in the G7 has fueled perceptions of economic mismanagement.

Starmer’s campaign promises, such as no tax rises, were perceived as broken when taxes increased post-election. This has eroded trust, with voters feeling misled about Labor’s economic plans.

 

 

The Prime Minister today (Monday 31 March) announced the government has returned more than 24,000 individuals with no right to be in the UK since the General Election – the highest returns rate for eight years.
 

Either someone is getting the job done or somebody else was not.

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-announces-massive-surge-in-immigration-enforcement-as-returns-reach-24000-since-the-election

[Bkk Brian]

3 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

 

 

The Prime Minister today (Monday 31 March) announced the government has returned more than 24,000 individuals with no right to be in the UK since the General Election – the highest returns rate for eight years.
 

Either someone is getting the job done or somebody else was not.

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-announces-massive-surge-in-immigration-enforcement-as-returns-reach-24000-since-the-election

Oh dear, that's been fact checked, you better check BBC, one of the lefties favourite sources.

 

The Home Office has also posted a video on X, showing people being escorted onto planes by immigration enforcement officials, with the words: "we have removed more than 24,000 people".

But the claim is misleading. The government's latest figures show that only 6,339 of these were "enforced returns". The majority were "voluntary returns" - and a significant number of these happen without the government's direct involvement or even knowledge.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyw8jw11jwo

[Smokey and the Bandit]

4 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

 

 

The Prime Minister today (Monday 31 March) announced the government has returned more than 24,000 individuals with no right to be in the UK since the General Election – the highest returns rate for eight years.
 

Either someone is getting the job done or somebody else was not.

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-announces-massive-surge-in-immigration-enforcement-as-returns-reach-24000-since-the-election

The 24,000 figure has been called misleading by BBC Verify and others because only 26% (6,339) were enforced returns. The majority being voluntary, with many leaving without direct government action, undermines the narrative of robust enforcement.

The establishment narrative celebrates the 24,000 returns as a win for Labor’s border security strategy, but this glosses over critical flaws. The reliance on voluntary returns, many of which occur without government intervention, inflates the figures and masks the ongoing influx of small boat arrivals. The £3 billion hotel cost, unchanged despite high-profile returns, underscores a systemic failure to address the asylum backlog or shift to cheaper accommodation. Labor’s centrist approach—balancing enforcement with international cooperation—lacks the bold, visible action needed to counter Reform UK’s populist appeal. Starmer’s government risks losing more ground to Farage if it can’t deliver tangible reductions in migration and associated costs before the next election.

[Smokey and the Bandit]

4 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Oh dear, that's been fact checked, you better check BBC, one of the lefties favourite sources.

 

The Home Office has also posted a video on X, showing people being escorted onto planes by immigration enforcement officials, with the words: "we have removed more than 24,000 people".

But the claim is misleading. The government's latest figures show that only 6,339 of these were "enforced returns". The majority were "voluntary returns" - and a significant number of these happen without the government's direct involvement or even knowledge.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyw8jw11jwo

You just beat me too it..good one!!

[MarkBR]

To win WWII against Hitler then to elect Farage. Labour must deliver for the people not just for the money-grabbing establishment, if it is to beat them - aka Reform - Tories are dead meat.

My mother was one of the Hang'em, Flog'em brigade for 50 years, I know what they represent - it is not nice.

Britain is dead if they elect Farage

[Chomper Higgot]

23 minutes ago, Smokey and the Bandit said:

The 24,000 figure has been called misleading by BBC Verify and others because only 26% (6,339) were enforced returns. The majority being voluntary, with many leaving without direct government action, undermines the narrative of robust enforcement.

The establishment narrative celebrates the 24,000 returns as a win for Labor’s border security strategy, but this glosses over critical flaws. The reliance on voluntary returns, many of which occur without government intervention, inflates the figures and masks the ongoing influx of small boat arrivals. The £3 billion hotel cost, unchanged despite high-profile returns, underscores a systemic failure to address the asylum backlog or shift to cheaper accommodation. Labor’s centrist approach—balancing enforcement with international cooperation—lacks the bold, visible action needed to counter Reform UK’s populist appeal. Starmer’s government risks losing more ground to Farage if it can’t deliver tangible reductions in migration and associated costs before the next election.

Why does it matter why they left, so long as they left?

 

Something Labour has achieved at levels not seen for 8 years.

 

[impulse]

27 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

But the claim is misleading. The government's latest figures show that only 6,339 of these were "enforced returns". The majority were "voluntary returns" - and a significant number of these happen without the government's direct involvement or even knowledge.

 

By that line of reasoning, Thailand "returns" almost 40 million a year.

 

[newbee2022]

36 minutes ago, Eloquent pilgrim said:

 

Comedy gold; many thanks 

 

 

Again Hogwash, as usual

[Bkk Brian]

24 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Why does it matter why they left, so long as they left?

 

Something Labour has achieved at levels not seen for 8 years.

 

Oh look, now attempting to cover up the facts from BBC Verify, can you provide a link to the claim that voluntary deportations have not been seen that high in 8 years?

 

 

[Eloquent pilgrim]

48 minutes ago, newbee2022 said:

Again Hogwash, as usual

 

The irony of you calling anyone else’s comment hogwash, is utterly breathtaking; as you bear testament to with just about every comment you make.

 

 

[RayC]

5 hours ago, JonnyF said:

 

If there is anything we've learned since Labour came to power, it's that splitting the right wing vote is devestating for Britain and it's indigenous people.

 

 

 

What's your definition of an indigenous Briton?

[JonnyF]

2 minutes ago, RayC said:

 

What's your definition of an indigenous Briton?

 

Too many syllables?