Skip to content
View in the app

A better way to browse. Learn more.

Thailand News and Discussion Forum | ASEANNOW

A full-screen app on your home screen with push notifications, badges and more.

To install this app on iOS and iPadOS
  1. Tap the Share icon in Safari
  2. Scroll the menu and tap Add to Home Screen.
  3. Tap Add in the top-right corner.
To install this app on Android
  1. Tap the 3-dot menu (⋮) in the top-right corner of the browser.
  2. Tap Add to Home screen or Install app.
  3. Confirm by tapping Install.

More Thai Bank Ratings Downgraded to Negative

Featured Replies

  • Popular Post

So now we have Fitch ratings on Thailand's sovereign debt and 5 Thai banks both downgraded to negative within the last week. 


Wouldn't be at all surprised if we see some more downgrades going forward and some eventual bank failures here within the next couple of years. 
 

Could it be the coming of the 1997 Thai economic crash all over again? It would be hard to argue that it isn't due. 

 

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/general/3110250/fitch-cuts-thailands-outlook-to-negative 

 

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/general/3113722/five-thai-banks-revised-to-negative 

 

 

  • Popular Post
3 hours ago, FriscoKid said:

Wouldn't be at all surprised if we see some more downgrades going forward and some eventual bank failures here within the next couple of years. 
 

Could it be the coming of the 1997 Thai economic crash all over again? It would be hard to argue that it isn't due. 

Possible to your first item re downgrades but as to your comment on bank failures I can only draw your attention to the following from your second link -

Quote

No impact on viability ratings: The viability ratings of KTB, ttb, UOBT, BBL, BAY, KBank, SCB and SCBX have all been affirmed. Fitch's operating environment score for Thai banks is at bbb/stable, which is lower than the Thai sovereign rating, and we assess it as not affected by the sovereign rating action.

I guess it may depend if you are a glass half full or empty kind of person but I certainly disagree with your last statement.

We shall see in the fullness of time but I am not going to lose any sleep over it currently :thumbsup:

3 minutes ago, topt said:

Possible to your first item re downgrades but as to your comment on bank failures I can only draw your attention to the following from your second link -

I guess it may depend if you are a glass half full or empty kind of person but I certainly disagree with your last statement.

We shall see in the fullness of time but I am not going to lose any sleep over it currently :thumbsup:

 

I only saw the OP because you quoted it, as his posts are invisibe to me.

If you wonder why, have a look at his other threads regarding Thai bank business

3 hours ago, FriscoKid said:

So now we have Fitch ratings on Thailand's sovereign debt and 5 Thai banks both downgraded to negative within the last week. 


Wouldn't be at all surprised if we see some more downgrades going forward and some eventual bank failures here within the next couple of years. 
 

Could it be the coming of the 1997 Thai economic crash all over again? It would be hard to argue that it isn't due. 

 

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/general/3110250/fitch-cuts-thailands-outlook-to-negative 

 

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/general/3113722/five-thai-banks-revised-to-negative 

 

 

 

Doubt it.....the Thai foreign currency holdings are huge and give the markets continued confidence.

 

If, however, the government starts to dip into their reserves the markets could panic.

5 minutes ago, Will B Good said:

 

Doubt it.....the Thai foreign currency holdings are huge and give the markets continued confidence.

 

If, however, the government starts to dip into their reserves the markets could panic.

 

I think the issue there is that the government may "forget" to inform in due time what they are doing.

Things are certainly not good in Thailand at currently, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see a repeat of what happened in 1997

  • Author
1 hour ago, topt said:

I guess it may depend if you are a glass half full or empty kind of person but I certainly disagree with your last statement.

We shall see in the fullness of time but I am not going to lose any sleep over it currently :thumbsup:


Thailand’s household debt levels today are far higher than they were during the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

 

In 1996, just before the crash, household debt stood at about 45 percent of GDP and during the crisis it rose to around 49 percent.

 

Fast forward to late 2024 and household debt has surged to nearly 90 percent of GDP in formal loans, and over 100 percent if informal borrowing is included. The total amount is more than 16 trillion baht.

 

This means Thai families now carry roughly twice the relative debt burden they held at the time of the 1997 crash.

Without naming names, considering the shockingly unprofessional way some Thai banks are conducting business, they should be stripped of their banking license. Not going to happen obviously, but their international ratings might well tank further. 

4 hours ago, FriscoKid said:

Could it be the coming of the 1997 Thai economic crash all over again? It would be hard to argue that it isn't due. 

Not really. Very very different circumstances 

26 minutes ago, FriscoKid said:

Thailand’s household debt levels today are far higher than they were during the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

I don't think household debt was the issue then and I think many western countries are even higher using your metrics.

From Wiki https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Asian_financial_crisis

Quote

Originating in Thailand, where it was known as the Tom Yum Kung crisis (Thai: วิกฤตต้มยำกุ้ง) on 2 July, it followed the financial collapse of the Thai baht after the Thai government was forced to float the baht due to lack of foreign currency to support its currency peg to the U.S. dollar. Capital flight ensued almost immediately, beginning an international chain reaction. At the time, Thailand had acquired a burden of foreign debt.[

I think you will find their foreign reserves are in a slightly better position at the moment.......

  • Author
  • Popular Post
30 minutes ago, Bill97 said:

Not really. Very very different circumstances 

 

You are correct that circumstances today are quite different, but I would still argue the situation is fragile. Household debt is extremely high and GDP has been falling. On the positive side government reserves seem strong and bank capital ratios seem solid. The reason I say “seem” is because we can never be fully sure how reliable locally reported data actually is.

 

On top of that you now have new tariffs on Thai exports to the US which are hurting trade, continued heavy and over reliance on tourism to drive GDP, and ongoing political uncertainty that weighs on foreign investment. Economic crashes are notoriously difficult to predict and often take people by surprise because the focus is usually on risks that are unlikely to trigger a collapse rather than on the ones that do. Crises also never unfold the same way twice which leaves people looking in the wrong places. What probably concerns me the most right now is the combination of high personal debt with falling GDP.

34 minutes ago, FriscoKid said:

 

You are correct that circumstances today are quite different, but I would still argue the situation is fragile. Household debt is extremely high and GDP has been falling. On the positive side government reserves seem strong and bank capital ratios seem solid. The reason I say “seem” is because we can never be fully sure how reliable locally reported data actually is.

 

On top of that you now have new tariffs on Thai exports to the US which are hurting trade, continued heavy and over reliance on tourism to drive GDP, and ongoing political uncertainty that weighs on foreign investment. Economic crashes are notoriously difficult to predict and often take people by surprise because the focus is usually on risks that are unlikely to trigger a collapse rather than on the ones that do. Crises also never unfold the same way twice which leaves people looking in the wrong places. What probably concerns me the most right now is the combination of high personal debt with falling GDP.

I don't disagree with any of that but conflating it to a similar crash as happened in 97 is, I feel, a bit of a str......etch.......

15 minutes ago, topt said:

I don't disagree with any of that but conflating it to a similar crash as happened in 97 is, I feel, a bit of a str......etch.......

 

The biggest problem for the banks is all the non-performing loans on their books. From what I understand is that all those foreclosed properties are listed as assets instead of liabilities.

 

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/thailand/balance-sheet-thai-bank-siam-commercial-bank/scb-assets-properties-foreclosed-net

 

image.png.15a9bb8881e300903293c3b87d550b64.png

 

2 hours ago, FriscoKid said:


Thailand’s household debt levels today are far higher than they were during the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

 

 

From your own link:

 

Household debt has fallen to 87.4% of GDP in the first quarter of 2025 from a peak of 95.5% in the first quarter of 2021 after a sharp rise during the pandemic. Around 30% of this debt consists of consumer loans, which may be vulnerable if employment conditions weaken.

However, banks have maintained sound buffers in terms of reserve coverage and capitalisation, which should mitigate risks if asset quality deteriorates, Fitch said.

 

So the reason the household debt is higher now is the aftereffect of the pandemic, with the genius government policies of the likes of Anutin, copying fellow genius Boris Johnson, in causing the world's greatest wealth destruction in recent memory. So naturally, the Thai people now have to work off the debt they incurred following the pandemic, when the world political geniuses mandated global lockdowns which destroyed businesses all over the world.

2 hours ago, Caldera said:

Without naming names, considering the shockingly unprofessional way some Thai banks are conducting business, they should be stripped of their banking license. Not going to happen obviously,

Obviously, that's not going to happen as there would be no justification for it.   What "shockingly unprofessional behavjour" have those unnamed banks displayed?

1 hour ago, Cameroni said:

So the reason the household debt is higher now is the aftereffect of the pandemic, with the genius government policies of the likes of Anutin, copying fellow genius Boris Johnson, in causing the world's greatest wealth destruction in recent memory. So naturally, the Thai people now have to work off the debt they incurred following the pandemic, when the world political geniuses mandated global lockdowns which destroyed businesses all over the world.

 

Looks like COVID spiked to 95% from a trend of about 80% which was stable for 5 years.  Even so in the last 25 years we've seen household debt more than triple so they're pretty much out of runway now.

 

image.png.fb83dfdc72c1b4ca1de7a0d747ef2506.png

1 hour ago, Liverpool Lou said:

Obviously, that's not going to happen as there would be no justification for it.   What "shockingly unprofessional behavjour" have those unnamed banks displayed?

Bank employees have outright lied to me about the requirements to open an account.  At the green bank, the teller said I needed to deposit 10K to get a new account.... when I said "That's not true", she just continued on and put my 500 ฿ into my new account and handed me the book.

 

While building our house, I used to go to BBL to get cash advances on my Schwab debit card so we could pay the installments to the builder.  About a third of the BBL branches I went to for these transactions said "We don't do cash advances on debit cards".  Is it just too hard for them to have consistent practices across branches?  BBL used to put no limit on the advances.  Slowly they lowered the limit, but never bothered to tell their branch staff.  Is there even a word in Thai that means 'training'?  When my cash advances failed, no one in the bank had a clue why!  The card reader machine would provide a code.... but nobody knew what the codes meant.  I got a look at the code, googled it and found the answer... LOL!

 

Is 'incompetence' in your vocabulary, Lou?

  • Author
3 hours ago, topt said:

I don't disagree with any of that but conflating it to a similar crash as happened in 97 is, I feel, a bit of a str......etch.......

 

Sure, that’s understandable thinking because things often don’t seem as precarious as they really are. But what would it actually take to cause another economic crisis or crash in Thailand like the one nearly 30 years ago? A loss of foreign investor confidence? A mass liquidation of foreign owned assets followed by a currency devaluation and a run on the banks? Is any of that really so hard to imagine given the current situation in Thailand with high levels of personal debt, non performing loans, and ailing GDP? Those are all signs of strong pressure pushing against the seams of what’s holding everything together.

 

And could factors like changes to immigration policy, tighter banking restrictions, and heavier taxation on foreign earned income, as we have seen recently, eventually contribute to greater negative sentiment? I don’t know. But from my perspective, things aren’t looking very solid. My biggest concern is that the overall direction appears to be drifting further in the wrong way rather than moving towards greater stability and economic security. 

7 hours ago, FriscoKid said:

 My biggest concern is that the overall direction appears to be drifting further in the wrong way rather than moving towards greater stability and economic security. 

about which country are you talking? ... (just kidding) ... that statement could apply to many countries, right?

10 hours ago, FriscoKid said:

A mass liquidation of foreign owned assets

Personally I think you are over egging the doom and gloom.  Even with a military coup this did not happen and as stated foreign reserves are at a an all time high so unfortunately I see little chance of a massive currency devaluation - ie more than 20%.

 

10 hours ago, FriscoKid said:

And could factors like changes to immigration policy, tighter banking restrictions, and heavier taxation on foreign earned income, as we have seen recently, eventually contribute to greater negative sentiment?

Seems to me it is only negative to us lowly foreign immigrants and sorry, much as we may decry it, we count for bugger all in the overall scheme of things :mellow:

14 hours ago, CallumWK said:

 

The biggest problem for the banks is all the non-performing loans on their books. From what I understand is that all those foreclosed properties are listed as assets instead of liabilities.

 

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/thailand/balance-sheet-thai-bank-siam-commercial-bank/scb-assets-properties-foreclosed-net

 

image.png.15a9bb8881e300903293c3b87d550b64.png

 


Good point…..no…..excellent point!

 

Another thing that I have noticed about the housing market here is that when I have seen advertisements for condos that include the financing options, they come with “teaser payments” for the first 2-3 years sometimes.  When I did the math based on the numbers given it was basically a negatively amortizing loan that on the surface is seemingly similar to the optionARM/Pick-a-pay/Neg-am loans that were being handed out like candy during the 2004-2006 housing bubble in the US.

 

One thing that the banks were doing in America was if a fully amortizing payment was $1000/month and the debtor was only paying $400 (with the additional $600 being tacked onto the principal owed), the banks were actually allowed to book the full $1000 as income.

 

Would be interesting to know more about the financial machinations the banks are able to get away with here.

12 hours ago, gamb00ler said:

Bank employees have outright lied to me about the requirements to open an account.  At the green bank, the teller said I needed to deposit 10K to get a new account.... when I said "That's not true", she just continued on and put my 500 ฿ into my new account and handed me the book.

 

 

You were lucky, they would not give me an account lest week because my name on the passport and immigration document were the 'wrong way around' 😆

On 10/1/2025 at 9:40 PM, Liverpool Lou said:

Obviously, that's not going to happen as there would be no justification for it.   What "shockingly unprofessional behavjour" have those unnamed banks displayed?

 

Although you're active here on an almost daily basis, sometimes I'm getting the impression that you aren't following the news, or very selectively. It isn't my job to educate you. You can find plenty of examples for what i wrote both here on this forum and elsewhere in case you're genuinely interested.

2 hours ago, Caldera said:

 

Although you're active here on an almost daily basis, sometimes I'm getting the impression that you aren't following the news, or very selectively. It isn't my job to educate you. You can find plenty of examples for what i wrote both here on this forum and elsewhere in case you're genuinely interested.

No, I've looked and cannot find one that justifiably shows "shockingly, unprofessional behaviour".  Neither has any "shockingly, unprofessional behaviour" been reported in the news of which you claim there is plenty.

 

I'm not looking for you to "educate" me, just looking for justification for, clearly, false claims with one agenda...to Thai-bash, in this case, the banks. 

3 hours ago, Liverpool Lou said:

No, I've looked and cannot find one that justifiably shows "shockingly, unprofessional behaviour".  Neither has any "shockingly, unprofessional behaviour" been reported in the news of which you claim there is plenty.

 

I'm not looking for you to "educate" me, just looking for justification for, clearly, false claims with one agenda...to Thai-bash, in this case, the banks. 

 

Give it a rest. You aren't the Thai-bashing police, just a delusional foreigner.

 

If you genuinely cannot find any reported evidence of shockingly unprofessional conduct by certain Thai banks, it simply means that your threshold for shockingly unprofessional conduct is different from mine. End of.

Create an account or sign in to comment

Recently Browsing 0

  • No registered users viewing this page.

Account

Navigation

Search

Search

Configure browser push notifications

Chrome (Android)
  1. Tap the lock icon next to the address bar.
  2. Tap Permissions → Notifications.
  3. Adjust your preference.
Chrome (Desktop)
  1. Click the padlock icon in the address bar.
  2. Select Site settings.
  3. Find Notifications and adjust your preference.