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Will the economy beat Trump?

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59 minutes ago, nauseus said:

 

 

Wow! And here's me thinking that GDP and UE were two  different things! 

 

Oh, hang on! 🤪

 

 

As I recall, you had a problem with using the GDP rate as a measure of the economy. I assumed that jobs might be more important to you as an indicator.

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  • If you tax all imports of course prices will go up. There is no way that they can’t.   Trump only really cares about his personal wealth and keeping out of jail.   The America

  • Prices are higher under Trump 2.

  • Yes, he mentioned the deficit. And he promised that his tax cuts would reduce the deficit. Just like George W. Bush did. Just like Ronald Reagan did. How has that worked out?

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11 hours ago, TedG said:

584716817_1169965825242158_7772251376104482235_n.jpg

 

This is the cummlative inflatoin from Trump 1 ---> Biden ---> Trump 2. 

That was the post-Covid crisis period.

Fact is that Biden received an economic crisis, and Trump received a good economy, with high GDP growth, low unemployment, and inflation at 2.9% in 2024.

6 hours ago, Mike_Hunt said:

This is a fluff pole.   

 

How many people are buying housing on a regular basis?   

 

Gas prices have deceased since least year.  

Gas prices have decreased because of OPEC's decision to increase production in order to regain market share, not because of Trump. Drill baby drill never happened (among other reasons because of OPEC's decision). 🙂

14 hours ago, nauseus said:

 

Strange tale - first time I've heard (or should it be herd?) of it - wonder why?

Probably not headline news at Fox or OAN as it's shows what a total BS artist Bessent is.

16 hours ago, TedG said:

Hiring Defied Expectations in September, With 119,000 New Jobs

Job growth accelerated in the month heading into the government shutdown

 

U.S. job growth defied expectations in September, according to a Labor Department report issued nearly seven weeks late due to the government shutdown.

Payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 119,000 on the month, the strongest gain since April, the Labor Department said Thursday.

That was well above the gain of 50,000 jobs economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expected to see. The September report covers the month before the recent government shutdown began on Oct. 1.

 

https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/delayed-jobs-report-september-2025-795a423c#comments_sector

 

Okay then...........:coffee1:

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, candide said:

That was the post-Covid crisis period.

Fact is that Biden received an economic crisis, and Trump received a good economy, with high GDP growth, low unemployment, and inflation at 2.9% in 2024.

 

Fact is that Biden received the remnants of Covid, when things were already improving  but after most of the relief money had already been spent. Biden then kept spending high anyway, so that the debt increased more over his four years than during Trump's four! Who thinks that a GDP growth of 2.9% is ""high"? UE was already on the move up again by end 2024.  

 

SOS

48 minutes ago, BLMFem said:

Probably not headline news at Fox or OAN as it's shows what a total BS artist Bessent is.

 

No. Not headline news. However, the Newsweek story (below) makes more sense. If, as this article says, these infected animals came across the border when it was pretty much open (under the Biden/Harris regime) then Bessent is not full of it - Newsome is.

 

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-admin-beef-prices-10-per-pound-because-migrants-11057258

5 minutes ago, nauseus said:

 

Fact is that Biden received the remnants of Covid, when things were already improving  but after most of the relief money had already been spent. Biden then kept spending high anyway, so that the debt increased more over his four years than during Trump's four! Who thinks that a GDP growth of 2.9% is ""high"? UE was already on the move up again by end 2024.  

 

SOS

2.9% inflation, not GDP growth. Now H1 annualized GDP growth is 1.6% and forecasts for 2025 are 1.6-1.8%

 

As concerns GDP growth, it's been 2 to 3 times higher than comparable countries. 🙂

Trump received a (relatively) good economy.

 

5eadca11-aa35-41ac-bd69-8e44493cc95a.png

16 hours ago, TedG said:

Hiring Defied Expectations in September, With 119,000 New Jobs

Job growth accelerated in the month heading into the government shutdown

 

U.S. job growth defied expectations in September, according to a Labor Department report issued nearly seven weeks late due to the government shutdown.

Payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 119,000 on the month, the strongest gain since April, the Labor Department said Thursday.

That was well above the gain of 50,000 jobs economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expected to see. The September report covers the month before the recent government shutdown began on Oct. 1.

 

https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/delayed-jobs-report-september-2025-795a423c#comments_sector

Have a look at the other months' numbers, which have been revised 🤣

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls

 

America’s labor market started to stall out in the early summer. Between May and August, job gains averaged 31,000 per month, or about one-fifth the monthly rate seen last year.🤣

 

https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/20/economy/economy-jobs-earnings-ai?cid=android_app

Screenshot_20251121_090822_Samsung Internet.jpg

4 minutes ago, candide said:

2.9% inflation, not GDP growth. Now H1 annualized GDP growth is 1.6% and forecasts for 2025 are 1.6-1.8%

 

As concerns GDP growth, it's been 2 to 3 times higher than comparable countries. 🙂

Trump received a (relatively) good economy.

 

5eadca11-aa35-41ac-bd69-8e44493cc95a.png

 

 

You tried this before and it's misleading. That is 12.2% is growth over FIVE YEARS (apparently). Give it a break.

 

US 2024 GPD growth YOY was 2.8% up against 2023 (see below).

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/full-year-gdp-growth

 

 

35 minutes ago, nauseus said:

 

 

You tried this before and it's misleading. That is 12.2% is growth over FIVE YEARS (apparently). Give it a break.

 

US 2024 GPD growth YOY was 2.8% up against 2023 (see below).

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/full-year-gdp-growth

 

 

Not misleading at all! You are making that up. It's clearly mentioned on the picture that it's compared to Q4 2019. It shows that the growth difference with other developped countries was not limited to a specific year.

 

Do you really want to compare with 2020? US gdp growth was -2.2% in 2020, so compared to 2020, the total growth during Biden's mandate was 14.4%. I let you calculate the average growth per year! 🤣

 

H1 2025 annualized growth is 1.6%. Much lower than 2024 growth 🤣

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1 hour ago, BLMFem said:

Probably not headline news at Fox or OAN as it's shows what a total BS artist Bessent is.

Bessent, Lutnick, Patel, Bondi, Hesgeth, Miller, Gabbard, Vance and Trump. They're all pathological liars and will say or do anything to try to convince the public of their distorted and very, very alternate reality. 

36 minutes ago, candide said:

Not misleading at all! You are making that up. It's clearly mentioned on the picture that it's compared to Q4 2019. It shows that the growth difference with other developped countries was not limited to a specific year.

 

Do you really want to compare with 2020? US gdp growth was -2.2% in 2020, so compared to 2020, the total growth during Biden's mandate was 14.4%. I let you calculate the average growth per year! 🤣

 

H1 2025 annualized growth is 1.6%. Much lower than 2024 growth 🤣

 

You were spouting "high GDP growth" for what? 12.2% over 5 years ain't high.

 

You threw in these other countries but remember they can't all print their own bags of money! 

 

What's with the 2020 Covid reference? It just shows what a bad year it was overall. And now you want to use half years too?

 

Goal posts on rails again. 

On 11/20/2025 at 2:02 PM, Mike_Hunt said:

584660253_1292622576228556_9058643729050364369_n.jpg

 

Cute picture of Joe there.

10 minutes ago, nauseus said:

 

You were spouting "high GDP growth" for what? 12.2% over 5 years ain't high.

 

You threw in these other countries but remember they can't all print their own bags of money! 

 

What's with the 2020 Covid reference? It just shows what a bad year it was overall. And now you want to use half years too?

 

Goal posts on rails again. 

Lame deflection.

 

Growth rates of developped countries tend to be correlated, so the only way to assess one country's performance is to compare with other countries. For example, a 6% growth at the end of the 60s was not a performance, as most developped countries enjoyed a similar growth. 

 

Fact is that GDP growth during Biden's mandate was 2 to 3 times higher than other comparable developped countries, whatever their currency. It was not the case before and is not the case now.

 

Now H1 2025 US GDP growth is the same as in the EU, and lower than in UK. 🤣

 

It's you who mentioned "5 years", reminding me that Biden's mandate was only 4 years long. So over five years, which includes one year under Trump, it's 12.2%. Over 4 years of Biden's mandate it's 14.4%.

 

The chasm between Trump’s claims and Americans’ views of inflation

oops ... 

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/polls-show-trump-s-happy-talk-on-inflation-is-falling-flat/ar-AA1QPob0?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=EDGEESS&cvid=0f3aa6af613441379be6bfeb408852b6&ei=38

Trump with his "don't believe what you see, believe what I say" mantra that actually did work for him for a while. But not now.

 

On 11/20/2025 at 2:02 PM, Mike_Hunt said:

584660253_1292622576228556_9058643729050364369_n.jpg

Tack on the last  2 months !

Oh sorry. Barred from release!

But the line is indicating the truth of what is to come.

 

6 hours ago, candide said:

Gas prices have decreased because of OPEC's decision to increase production in order to regain market share, not because of Trump. Drill baby drill never happened (among other reasons because of OPEC's decision). 🙂

Are gas prices up or down?  

12 hours ago, Mike_Hunt said:

This is a fluff pole.   

 

How many people are buying housing on a regular basis?   

 

Gas prices have deceased since least year.  

Have you checked on the volume of foreclosures and bankruptcies in the last quarter?

Quite revealing .

Oil/gas prices decreasing on lower demand equating to lower demand other than Chinese advantage in production costs .

 

Just now, Mike_Hunt said:

Are gas prices up or down?  

Down and not because of Trump. :laugh:

2 minutes ago, Mike_Hunt said:

Are gas prices up or down?  

Priced according to demand  and not Trump.

 

7 hours ago, Alan Zweibel said:

That report from The Economist was dated May 11, 2025.

Here's some info that offers a better historical perspective

Here's the US inflation rate:

image.png.ab2988cb54df7f074006f8c9e9b57d29.png

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi

 

Here's the eurozone inflation rate:

 

 

image.png.e20aa3dee9a6e2f675a4400a501d4b4f.png

https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/gdp-growth

 

Was the eurozone inflation's rate Biden's fault too?

 

And here's a link to a graph comparing US GDP to Eurozone GDP:

https://statisticstimes.com/economy/united-states-vs-eu-economy.php

As you will note the US GDP growth for that time period greatly outpaced that of the Eurozone.

1) Economists agree that Joe Biden's stimulus on top of the COVID stimulus. 

2) The USA and Europe had different types of inflation.   Europe had inflation via enrage prices.  The US inflation was demand driven. 

 

https://www.dw.com/en/beating-inflation-how-do-europe-and-the-us-compare/a-68976653#:~:text=While the European and US,American one%2C" said Papadia.

Screenshot 2025-11-21 at 6.57.44 AM.png

5 minutes ago, candide said:

Down and not because of Trump. :laugh:

When gas prices are up you blame Trump. 

6 hours ago, candide said:

That was the post-Covid crisis period.

Fact is that Biden received an economic crisis, and Trump received a good economy, with high GDP growth, low unemployment, and inflation at 2.9% in 2024.

And Joe Biden's polices increased inflation.  

Just now, Mike_Hunt said:

When gas prices are up you blame Trump. 

Now you are making stuff up! :laugh:

 

 

1 minute ago, candide said:

Now you are making stuff up! :laugh:

 

 

Hell no...

18 minutes ago, Mike_Hunt said:

1) Economists agree that Joe Biden's stimulus on top of the COVID stimulus. 

2) The USA and Europe had different types of inflation.   Europe had inflation via enrage prices.  The US inflation was demand driven. 

 

https://www.dw.com/en/beating-inflation-how-do-europe-and-the-us-compare/a-68976653#:~:text=While the European and US,American one%2C" said Papadia.

Screenshot 2025-11-21 at 6.57.44 AM.png

On the other hand:

Unlike the ECB’s preferred gauge, both the PCE and the CPI include owner-occupiers’ housing costs — essentially a measure of how much money you could earn from renting out your home and hence forego if you live in it.

The measure is designed to track inflation in the real estate market while accounting for the fact that most Americans own their homes. But people don’t actually feel these hypothetical housing costs, said Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management.

The weight given to owner-occupiers’ housing costs is much bigger in the US CPI than in the PCE — 32% versus 13%, according to consultancy Capital Economics — but both weights are still much larger than the 0% afforded to these costs in the eurozone’s key measure of consumer prices.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/26/economy/us-europe-inflation-differences

This difference is especially exaggerated when housing costs are rising rapidly

1 minute ago, Alan Zweibel said:

On the other hand:

Unlike the ECB’s preferred gauge, both the PCE and the CPI include owner-occupiers’ housing costs — essentially a measure of how much money you could earn from renting out your home and hence forego if you live in it.

The measure is designed to track inflation in the real estate market while accounting for the fact that most Americans own their homes. But people don’t actually feel these hypothetical housing costs, said Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management.

The weight given to owner-occupiers’ housing costs is much bigger in the US CPI than in the PCE — 32% versus 13%, according to consultancy Capital Economics — but both weights are still much larger than the 0% afforded to these costs in the eurozone’s key measure of consumer prices.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/26/economy/us-europe-inflation-differences

This difference is especially exaggerated when housing costs are rising rapidly

The US inflation was demand driven.  Europe was energy driven.   Come on man, you can't admit defeat. 

4 minutes ago, Mike_Hunt said:

The US inflation was demand driven.  Europe was energy driven.   Come on man, you can't admit defeat. 

Yes it was demand driven. But it was also due to supply disruption. As you may recall, ships were backed up at US docks because of the covid epidemic. Also, demand was driven towards goods and away from services because of covid. So it was a combination of those 2 factors that led to high inflation. Finally you somehow managed to ignore that quote about the booming US economy also being responsible for the rise in prices. How lucky those Europeans were to not have a booming economy. Finally,  how did workers fare? Did their wages decline? Didn't they not  in fact rise? What was special about that period was the the lower paid workers' wages rose faster than the highest paid workers.

Just now, Alan Zweibel said:

Yes it was demand driven. But it was also due to supply disruption. As you may recall, ships were backed up at US docks because of the covid epidemic. Also, demand was driven towards goods and away from services because of covid. So it was a combination of those 2 factors that led to high inflation. Finally you somehow managed to ignore that quote about the booming US economy also being responsible for the rise in prices. How lucky those Europeans were to not have a booming economy. Finally,  how did workers fare? Did their wages decline? Didn't they not  in fact rise? What was special about that period was the the lower paid workers' wages rose faster than the highest paid workers.

https://www.vox.com/politics/394712/joe-biden-president-legacy-inflation-manchin

 

 

Screenshot 2025-11-21 at 7.31.35 AM.png

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