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Why Isn’t the Thai Baht Weakening?

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On 12/29/2025 at 9:24 PM, Celsius said:

Canadian dollar UP

I am old enough to remember when the Canadian dollar and US were almost always within a few cents of each other

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  • Its always strong at this time of the year due to the millions of tourists needing to buy Thai baht  to spend  on their winter extravaganza (two week millionaires)   

  • I prefer to ask, why isn't your home currency strengthening against the THB ?

  • Well observed. It's not the 3rd world currencies strenghtening against the US Dollar, it's the US Dollar weakening against 3rd world currencies.

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13 minutes ago, shackleton said:

It's not called the Teflon baht for nothing

No matter what happens in Thailand the baht remains strong

Only the expats here get upset when they see the exchange rate on their currencies 😱

1, TRUE..

2, TRUE....

3, VERY TRUE....

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1 hour ago, Unamerican said:

Oh no it doesn’t!!

Actually it does.

The biggest influence on the THB exchange rate is the performance of the US Dollar - and the US economy.

Then add manipulation and then add Thailand's economic performance (mainly exports and tourism)

Just interested to know how the value of the Baht is manipulated. According to AI , the X rate is determined by market forces , and the BOT only intervenes to prevent excess volatility. This is also subject to an agreement with the US not to alter the X rate to gain market advantage.

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10 minutes ago, persimmon said:

Just interested to know how the value of the Baht is manipulated. According to AI , the X rate is determined by market forces , and the BOT only intervenes to prevent excess volatility. This is also subject to an agreement with the US not to alter the X rate to gain market advantage.

You have been to Thailand, yes?

Then you will understand that the country is institutionally corrupt - from top downwards.

Gold/Currency reserves being used to buy Baht is just one of the legal manipulations .................... the authorities will find others.

Impervious to any good or bad news, and now the Trumpster' will be distracting himself' from currency manipulation onto starting a couple of wars 🤔

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The Thai Baht "gets strong" as the USD weakens. (Double Whammy) As the USD weakens, the price of gold goes up.
The Thai baht and gold have a strong and unusual positive correlation, meaning the baht tends to appreciate when global gold prices rise. This is primarily due to Thailand's unique cultural connection to gold as a primary investment asset and the resulting high volume of domestic gold trading and exports.

When global gold prices (quoted in US dollars) increase:

Thai households and investors, who widely hold physical gold as savings, often sell their holdings to realize profits.

Local gold shops and traders buy this gold and then export it internationally.

Foreign currency (mostly US dollars) from these exports is converted into Thai baht in the local market.

Increased demand for the baht in the foreign exchange market causes the currency to strengthen (appreciate) against the dollar and other currencies.

This phenomenon is unique among emerging Asian currencies, where the correlation is typically much lower. The massive scale of gold trading in Thailand—sometimes exceeding the daily trading volume of the Stock Exchange of Thailand—can significantly impact the national currency's daily volatility and value.

1 hour ago, hotandsticky said:

You have been to Thailand, yes?

Then you will understand that the country is institutionally corrupt - from top downwards.

Gold/Currency reserves being used to buy Baht is just one of the legal manipulations .................... the authorities will find others.

Then you will understand that the country is institutionally corrupt - from top downwards.......Oh Dear YOU CANNOT Write THAT on an OPEN Forum......BIG Brother is watching YOU !!!

1 hour ago, OneZero said:

Scam centers behind Thailand’s strangely strong baht? - Asia Times

Interesting article and opinion depending on one's perspective - unfortunately a bit short on checkable facts..........unsure

6 hours ago, hotandsticky said:

You have been to Thailand, yes?

Then you will understand that the country is institutionally corrupt - from top downwards.

That is so for nearly every other country.

It won't weaken until all the hi-so's and those in power have finished doing their foreign bank transfers and moving out their THB from the country. Then it will drop.

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15 hours ago, FlorC said:

That is so for nearly every other country.

Of course..................Thailand just does it better/more overly than most other countries.

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20 hours ago, SingAPorn said:

It won't weaken until all the hi-so's and those in power have finished doing their foreign bank transfers and moving out their THB from the country. Then it will drop.

And that's when they move it back into Thailand and make a profit. 🙂

I would guess that the only organisation with enough financial clout capable of influencing the Baht x rate is the BOT . The idea that private individuals could invest the billions ,/ trillions needed to move the dial is not credible and , AFAWK , the BOT is not acting to prop up the value of the baht.

In the end , market forces will prevail, as we saw during the Asian financial crisis when the baht sank to 90 / £ .

The events of " Black Wednesday " , when the UK dropped out of the ERM , despite the BOE spending billions and raising interest rates , shows that currently manipulation can't defy the market .

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14 minutes ago, persimmon said:

I would guess that the only organisation with enough financial clout capable of influencing the Baht x rate is the BOT . The idea that private individuals could invest the billions ,/ trillions needed to move the dial is not credible and , AFAWK , the BOT is not acting to prop up the value of the baht.

In the end , market forces will prevail, as we saw during the Asian financial crisis when the baht sank to 90 / £ .

The events of " Black Wednesday " , when the UK dropped out of the ERM , despite the BOE spending billions and raising interest rates , shows that currently manipulation can't defy the market .

I agree with all that which, arguably, suggests that the Baht is NOT over-valued.

I find that conclusion hard to accept because I can't see anything in the economic picture to justify the firming up of the Baht.

1 hour ago, persimmon said:

AFAWK , the BOT is not acting to prop up the value of the baht.

I think we don't know much.

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On 12/30/2025 at 6:53 PM, CallumWK said:

So they are manipulating the baht, to avoid gold get too expensive for the Thai population

\

If there still were some doubts about the manupilation.

Today, gold price incresease, dollar get stronger against the currencies in the dollar index.

Yet baht get stronger against dollar and Euro.

image.png

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1 hour ago, CallumWK said:

\

If there still were some doubts about the manupilation.

Today, gold price incresease, dollar get stronger against the currencies in the dollar index.

Yet baht get stronger against dollar and Euro.

image.png

yeah, massive manipulation from the elites that run this country but are running it into the ground

Best way to launder money now. Bank accounts not safe in Thailand for scammers, and with the giant US and UK confiscations of BTC and crypto, everyone moving to gold. The trick now will be how to transport the gold to another country.

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In the Bond film " Goldfinger " , the villain smuggled gold from the UK to Switzerland using his Rolls Royce by making the body panels out of solid gold.

31 minutes ago, persimmon said:

In the Bond film " Goldfinger " , the villain smuggled gold from the UK to Switzerland using his Rolls Royce by making the body panels out of solid gold.

... well, rather seems to be golden toilets these days ... just goes to show how tremendously taste has improved, like nobody has ever seen before ... etc., pp.

Dunno if these get smuggled into switzahland as well though, 555 ...

14 hours ago, TexasCowboy said:

Best way to launder money now. Bank accounts not safe in Thailand for scammers, and with the giant US and UK confiscations of BTC and crypto, everyone moving to gold. The trick now will be how to transport the gold to another country.

Quite a few in the news lately, and for big money.

UK.

No image preview

£2m gold bars and jewellery seized after stop at Manchest...

Greater Manchester Police find gold bars in a suspect car which they stopped at Manchester Airport.

Japan.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/11/21/japan/crime-legal/gold-bar-smuggling/

Korea.

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2026-01-05/national/socialAffairs/Gold-trafficking-ring-leader-sentenced-fined-136-billion-won/2492734

Vietnam.

https://vietnamnet.vn/en/24-gold-bars-and-32-iphones-seized-at-cam-ranh-airport-2475018.html

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