1 hour ago, alanrchase said:

Expectations of an interest rate cut in the US and increasingly hostile talk about Venezuela wouldn't have anything to do with it?

nope... if so.. why is it constantly getting more and more expensive.. if so, the THB would weaken by the internal problems that Thailand has and only a bit by expectations

Just now, GreasyFingers said:

It was not long ago that the BOT admitted that the baht was tied to USD, so should it not have gone down with it.

 

Only about 28 years ago.

 

Since then it is tied to a basket of foreign currencies

Just now, CallumWK said:

 

Only about 28 years ago.

 

Since then it is tied to a basket of foreign currencies

It was reported less that 2 months ago.

1 minute ago, GreasyFingers said:

It was reported less that 2 months ago.

 

I'm sure you have a link to that.

 

 

https://www.westernunion.com/blog/en/us/thailand-currency/

 

During the mid-20th century, the baht was pegged to the US dollar. Initially it was pegged at 20 THB to 1 USD and later adjusted to 25 THB to 1 USD. However, in 1997, amidst economic turmoil, the Thai government was forced to abandon the peg, leading to a sharp devaluation of the baht and triggering the broader Asian Financial Crisis.

The baht’s value plummeted, reaching a low of 56 baht to 1 dollar. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) intervened with a $20 billion relief package, helping Thailand stabilize its economy and currency. Since then, the baht has operated on a floating exchange rate and has gradually regained stability, becoming a key player in Southeast Asia’s economic landscape.

 

https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/1997/11/lessons-from-thailand/

 

After more than a decade of maintaining the Thai baht’s near-peg to the U.S. dollar, Thai authorities abandoned the peg on July 2, 1997.

2 hours ago, mikebell said:

For those of us on a frozen UK State pension, it impacts our spending locally.  

Don't tell 'em , Pike!

5 minutes ago, ikke1959 said:

nope... if so.. why is it constantly getting more and more expensive.. if so, the THB would weaken by the internal problems that Thailand has and only a bit by expectations

Because things are constantly getting worse in the US? Who knows what the situation is in the US if they no longer release economic data? Trump claims there is a cessation of hostilities so maybe that has increased the value of the Baht? An election has been called so that gets rid of uncertainty over whether that would happen. Trump has added to the federal deficit as well, so that doesn't help.

2 minutes ago, alanrchase said:

Because things are constantly getting worse in the US? Who knows what the situation is in the US if they no longer release economic data? Trump claims there is a cessation of hostilities so maybe that has increased the value of the Baht? An election has been called so that gets rid of uncertainty over whether that would happen. Trump has added to the federal deficit as well, so that doesn't help.

It is not about the US $ it is about the THB.. and they claim the exchange rate is related to the US $ and next time about the goldprice and it is changing every time... Not everything is US related unfortunately... The THB is manipulated by the elite and the BOT although they pretend not, but the are on the watch for that. Normally with negative news the currency of a country will weaken, but the constant negative news of the Thai economy has only made the THB more expensive that is not normal... but I believe that the rich and elite put their THB in foreign currencies as they are seeing that the THB will collapse and now they have strong currencies ,,,

I bet all the Hiso's have a hard on for this currency run, giving directions to BOT.

16 minutes ago, ikke1959 said:

It is not about the US $ it is about the THB.. and they claim the exchange rate is related to the US $ and next time about the goldprice and it is changing every time... Not everything is US related unfortunately... The THB is manipulated by the elite and the BOT although they pretend not, but the are on the watch for that. Normally with negative news the currency of a country will weaken, but the constant negative news of the Thai economy has only made the THB more expensive that is not normal... but I believe that the rich and elite put their THB in foreign currencies as they are seeing that the THB will collapse and now they have strong currencies ,,,

It's not about the US dollar? OK. 

Negative Thai news? What about negative US news? Trump seems to want to destroy tourism. Social media checks for visitors. Dual pricing introduced next year. Do the super rich in the US not play the FX markets? Maybe the Trump family has a vested interest in weakening the $US to help make money on their crypto?

Are all the other countries where the dollar has fallen in value also manipulating their currencies?

2 hours ago, mikebell said:

For those of us on a frozen UK State pension, it impacts our spending locally.  I have had to tighten my belt significantly: clothes; car; restaurant meals; trips to Bangkok; gin/tonics.  Thus the locals too suffer from the decreased ex-pat spending.

I believe the baht is kept artificially high by those who dare n't put baht into their local bank accounts, but export it ready for a one-way ticket to Dubai.

For those of us on a frozen UK State pension, it impacts our spending locally....Yes Mine Dropped by Over 200 Baht on Last Month's PITTANCE !!

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44 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

 

I'm sure you have a link to that.

 

 

https://www.westernunion.com/blog/en/us/thailand-currency/

 

During the mid-20th century, the baht was pegged to the US dollar. Initially it was pegged at 20 THB to 1 USD and later adjusted to 25 THB to 1 USD. However, in 1997, amidst economic turmoil, the Thai government was forced to abandon the peg, leading to a sharp devaluation of the baht and triggering the broader Asian Financial Crisis.

The baht’s value plummeted, reaching a low of 56 baht to 1 dollar. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) intervened with a $20 billion relief package, helping Thailand stabilize its economy and currency. Since then, the baht has operated on a floating exchange rate and has gradually regained stability, becoming a key player in Southeast Asia’s economic landscape.

 

https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/1997/11/lessons-from-thailand/

 

After more than a decade of maintaining the Thai baht’s near-peg to the U.S. dollar, Thai authorities abandoned the peg on July 2, 1997.

The baht’s value plummeted, reaching a low of 56 baht to 1 dollar...It Also Went to 93 to The GBP !!

 

No matter how the baht is against other currencies Ie the USA  $

it won't deter future Tourists coming for their holidays here 

As most will have booked well ahead for Christmas New Year 

Different story for Expats living here as the cost of living rises 😱

5 minutes ago, shackleton said:

No matter how the baht is against other currencies Ie the USA  $

it won't deter future Tourists coming for their holidays here 

As most will have booked well ahead for Christmas New Year 

Different story for Expats living here as the cost of living rises 😱

 

Flight prices have been high all year, and western tourism is down big time.

 

Two days ago I checked 5 hotels in the Buakhow area for availability of room from 29 December to 2 January.

All of them had room available.

26 minutes ago, alanrchase said:

It's not about the US dollar? OK. 

Negative Thai news? What about negative US news? Trump seems to want to destroy tourism. Social media checks for visitors. Dual pricing introduced next year. Do the super rich in the US not play the FX markets? Maybe the Trump family has a vested interest in weakening the $US to help make money on their crypto?

Are all the other countries where the dollar has fallen in value also manipulating their currencies?

Both Presidency's of Trump have seen this same collapse. Three more years so help us, God. Times looks bleak.

2 hours ago, Lucky Bones said:

What are you buying from the States? 🙃🙃

This, why ?

31 minutes ago, alanrchase said:

It's not about the US dollar? OK. 

Negative Thai news? What about negative US news? Trump seems to want to destroy tourism. Social media checks for visitors. Dual pricing introduced next year. Do the super rich in the US not play the FX markets? Maybe the Trump family has a vested interest in weakening the $US to help make money on their crypto?

Are all the other countries where the dollar has fallen in value also manipulating their currencies?

Soon you will see that the THB will weaken a bit without any reason, but only because the expensive THB is bad for the economy. Same happened when Prayuth was PM. He said the THB is toi strong and short after within days the THB weakened. Not all other countries manipulating their currency

15 hours ago, FlorC said:

Baht Hits Four-Year High, Puts Pressure on Bank of Thailand

 

They should see to other currencies too.

Against the usd is more the $ weakness.

Baht is NOT on a 4 year high against euro and others.

The world is more than usd, now more than ever in the last decades.

It’s not even on a 4 year high against the dollar. It has been 32 and above many times. They are math challenged.

2 hours ago, GreasyFingers said:

It was not long ago that the BOT admitted that the baht was tied to USD, so should it not have gone down with it.

 

Also : Increased capital flows from the US Fed's interest rate cuts have further fuelled the currency's appreciation.

The US interest rates are ~4% while the Thai rates are ~1.7%. Why would they move money here.

 

Well, I have not followed BOT statements, however if you look at USD THB xrate history it is obvious that Baht has not been pegged to USD since 1997 (I recall there was a narrow spread peg prior to that - which actually was one the factors - if not the factor - leading to the crisis). Pegs or ambitions for such wont hold if fundamentals are not supporting it like was the case then, that has been proved time and again.

 

BOT probably think they would like to see THB stable to USD for international trade stability, however in reality that has not been the case - and is not straightforward if and when USD weakens a lot in short period of time.

 

Recent weakening of USD, added with the tariffs, puts Thailand as well as EU countries to difficult position with US trade - we are talking about price increase in range of 30% to US customers. Interesting to see if central banks do something about that or not.

 

I am not a pro on Thai trading, however the simple explanation is that someone somewhere believes that even at that interest rate spread, some believe it is better to hold some Thai assets than not to hold - future xrate speculation being a possible one (has worked out well lately, and 2% is not much if you believe USD continues to sink), stock market speculation another. Capital markets are very fluid, with many players not all of which even have same expectations for their positions.

 

Anyway, I hold my view that THB has not really strengthened rather has been fairly stable against basket of currencies. It is first and foremost USD that has weakened, but for some reason thai media continues to drum about thb strengthening. Why, I don't know; maybe to try to create perception among masses that BOT is doing something wrong and creating public pressure for BOT to do something about it (remember that impartial media does not really exist here). Sure BOT could start printing baht to sink it, however that could have consequencies more severe than current situation.

 

Sure some other currencies like VND have weakened too, but for Thailand  and many other countries the big issue is weaker USD. And yes for me like many others living here weaked baht would be nice.

 

 

 

 

 

 

2 hours ago, ikke1959 said:

It is not about the US $ it is about the THB.. and they claim the exchange rate is related to the US $ and next time about the goldprice and it is changing every time... Not everything is US related unfortunately... The THB is manipulated by the elite and the BOT although they pretend not, but the are on the watch for that. Normally with negative news the currency of a country will weaken, but the constant negative news of the Thai economy has only made the THB more expensive that is not normal... but I believe that the rich and elite put their THB in foreign currencies as they are seeing that the THB will collapse and now they have strong currencies ,,,

 

You seriously believe that in today's open and fluid capital markets a bunch of wealthy thais can beat the big hedge funds if they believe currency is substantially off the mark in terms of valuation? Central Bank certainly can influence to some extent by intervening, however if the big vultures see discrepancy vs reality, BOT easily runs out of steam (as they did in 1997). Even Bank of England did in 1992.

Maybe it’s not so much about the baht, but more about how the dollar is performing.

This is Reuters view :

 

The U.S. dollar, long renowned for its strength, has been weakened by President Donald Trump’s stiff tariffs, his attacks on the Federal Reserve and hisdistancing from allies and global institutions. 

The dollar index, which measures the value of the greenback against a basket of major world currencies, suffered its worst first half of the year since the early 1970s.

3 hours ago, CallumWK said:

However, in 1997, amidst economic turmoil, the Thai government was forced to abandon the peg, leading to a sharp devaluation of the baht and triggering the broader Asian Financial Crisis.

The baht’s value plummeted, reaching a low of 56 baht to 1 dollar. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) intervened with a $20 billion relief package, helping Thailand stabilize its economy and currency

I remember back in 2001 or maybe 2003, the THB was 44 to the USD and 77 to the GBP. It then eased, but stayed around 40ish for quite a few years as I recall. An increase in Thailand manufacturing (as an alternative to China) and more tourism in the late 2000s and early 2010s pushed the baht below 40 to the USD, but there is no excuse for its strength over these last couple of years.

4 hours ago, Hanuman2547 said:

With a strong baht against the USD, it may have a negative result on international tourist arrivals.  If tourism is down due to the strong baht and the Cambodian/Thai border conflict this will negatively affect Thailand's economy.  

 

 

The elites don't care, they're alright

4 hours ago, Celsius said:

Don't invest it gold, invest in thai baht

it was 16k per baht when I came ,now its 60K+

Baht manipulation hits all time high; there, fixed it for ya... 

1 hour ago, mran66 said:

 

You seriously believe that in today's open and fluid capital markets a bunch of wealthy thais can beat the big hedge funds if they believe currency is substantially off the mark in terms of valuation? Central Bank certainly can influence to some extent by intervening, however if the big vultures see discrepancy vs reality, BOT easily runs out of steam (as they did in 1997). Even Bank of England did in 1992.

Ok please explain why Thailand is claiming that the THB is so strong because the goldprice is influenced here by whitewashing of criminal money. The rich and famous, 10% of the Thais have almost 70% of the wealth here....that is far more than a few millions criminal money

1 hour ago, mran66 said:

 

You seriously believe that in today's open and fluid capital markets a bunch of wealthy thais can beat the big hedge funds if they believe currency is substantially off the mark in terms of valuation? Central Bank certainly can influence to some extent by intervening, however if the big vultures see discrepancy vs reality, BOT easily runs out of steam (as they did in 1997). Even Bank of England did in 1992.

It's a logical argument you make. But to look at it another way, the big hedgers are wary of Thailand, and of the people who are profitting from this strong baht, and maybe they aren't confident the BoT will take the kind of action central banks would take in most western countries (for reasons we can only guess at). Hedging is a gamble. The big international guns know how Thailand (really) works and are wary of the behind the scenes skulduggary. If they had shorted the Baht they would have lost right? So they remain on the sidelines, making easier money in more predictable markets. And we are where we are, sadly.

i just looked, and i have never seen thai baht so strong vs swedish krona.

you guys need to cut down on lady drinks or you'll go broke

51 minutes ago, ikke1959 said:

Ok please explain why Thailand is claiming that the THB is so strong because the goldprice is influenced here by whitewashing of criminal money. The rich and famous, 10% of the Thais have almost 70% of the wealth here....that is far more than a few millions criminal money

 

'Thailand' is claiming many other things too, like being a democracy, fighting corruption being key govt policy, farang being dirty, not having prostitution in Pattaya  etc etc...and who is 'Thailand' anyway in this case?

 

Anyway, substantial gold trading happening in Thailand - being criminal or not - as well as substantial money laundering in general can be and probably is a factor impacting THB xrate to USD. However all that is happening in open float market, traders voluntarily either buying or selling baht, USD or gold. If baht would be 'too high' whoever considers bringing his USD in and change to baht to buy something here obviously would not until baht drops. Or if USD is too low for someone to sell his/her gold, they probably would not sell

 

To say 'baht is too strong' (without taking position to whether it has been strengthening or not) is a pretty generic statement, and depends on the perspective one looks at it as well as expectations. I have no doubt that businesses trying to sell their products to USD denominated markets esp US with the tariffs today justifiably believe that baht is too strong - even if what they really mean by saying it is that USD is too low and tariffs too high. At the same time someone buying baht with their USD to hedge their bets by buying baht bonds or thai stocks, - or selling their gold - might think think differently (not really different from people arguing about whether bitcoin is too high or low - and how to defined the 'correct' level anyway). Or someone like me thinking whether remit my EUR here to buy stuff, if baht too expensive i simply would not (baht has been relatively stable vs EUR for past 10+ years, within normal fluctuation so I could not really say that baht has strengthened at all)

 

Challenge is that in short term xrate is predominantly defined by capital markets, not the competitiveness of thai industries in USD market. And certainly thai forex and gold reserves is a factor impacting the xrate as well. Long term is different, country fundamentals play more there.

 

 

On 12/15/2025 at 7:51 AM, JoePai said:

Maybe but it's great for buying things from the States   😎

 

A lot of ammunition and weapons purchases coming up to replace the border attrition.