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Vietnam's Economic Growth Set to Surpass Thailand

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22 minutes ago, cookie1974 said:

Been there 3 times, although i avoid the immigration queues in Ho Chi Minh by starting my trip in Phu Quoc, and go through the domestic lane, never had a problem with the Taxis, just use Grab or Bolt, theres plenty of scam Taxi drivers outside Thailands Airports too, its not unique to Vietnam

I've been in and out of Vietnam dozens of times for work over the past 20 years and watched their airports, including the provincial ones, gradually getting overwhelmed by the sheer numbers of visitors.

Why should someone with business in either HCMC or Hanoi need the added time and expense of routing their travel via Phu Quoc or some other less busy international gateway, just so they can 'fast-track' their entry to their final destination via the domestic terminals? An innovative workaround for sure, but all because their whole international travel gateways are decades behind what's needed. By the way, T1 (domestic) at SGN is right up there when it comes to inefficient and dated facilities with broken baggage carousels only one of the enduring facets of domestic travel.

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  • ikke1959
    ikke1959

    The result of mismanagement by the Governments of Thailand, the extreme expensive THB and the unnecessary border tensions... Thailand should work to make tourists feel welcome, instead of double price

  • soi3eddie
    soi3eddie

    It was only a matter of time. Vietnam has the foresight and education and willing workforce to make it happen. Thailand has, for too long, rested on it's laurels of complacency of an established touri

  • DonniePeverley
    DonniePeverley

    Many economic forums have warned Thailand for many decades it needs to diversify it's economy, so it's not reliant solely on tourism. However, successive adminstrations have shown such short sighted

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Changes come in most cases from within. Thailand is in free fall on all fronts as we know and yeah, it is a domestic destruction which has been going on for decades by greedy people, corrupt authorities and incompetent self-centered governments.

Compare the Philippines from the early 80s with the country today - a shining star back then got to a screeching halt in the backyard of ASEAN; Thailand will be next unless a miracle happens. For the latter you would have to go to Portugal's Fatima or France's Lourdes - me thinks!

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Vietnam's economy is progressing from a much lower base than Thailand's so hardly surprising it's growth rate is way higher. Infrastructure in Thailand is good in terms of roads, railways, power and communications.

Thai attitudes to foreign influences is, and always had been, cautious. In this regard Thai diplomatic skills were evident during a time when all of its' neighbours were being colonised.

For those living in Thailand who are so critical of the way things are done here you will have to wait a long time before witnessing significant change.

1 hour ago, mikeymike100 said:

'Vietnam is poised to overtake Thailand in economic size, driven by significant state-led infrastructure investments."

I wonder how TAT will spin this?biggrin

by reminding us that 34 million tourists visited. That's all they ever do. Quanity over quality.

1 hour ago, cookie1974 said:

the great advantage [Vietnam] has, is that its main tourist areas arent full of pissed up idiots causing mayhem, which is sadly now a major factor in most of Thailands major tourist destinations, anti social behaviour and drugs of all kinds, are now a major blight on Thailands tourism industry

Not many acknowledge your first statement but on my last trip to VN it was evident, even in the backpacker zones.

You hardly saw any mayhem 20 yrs ago in TH.

I wonder what happened?

1 hour ago, Thingamabob said:

Infrastructure in Thailand is good in terms of roads, railways, power and communications.

Um, I think you could remove 'railways' from that list.

And at the current rate of progress (outside of metropolitan BKK) it'll be at least another decade before any (usable) progress is apparent.

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On 1/7/2026 at 12:53 AM, DonniePeverley said:

Many economic forums have warned Thailand for many decades it needs to diversify it's economy, so it's not reliant solely on tourism.

However, successive adminstrations have shown such short sightedness, that their immediate switch is to push the country into a reliance on more mass cheap tourism for shor term gains, this time on steroids. The previous adminstration after the elections had the chance to set a long term goal of diversifying the economy and pushing the population away from tourism, ploughing money into education. Instead it gave massive investments into removing all visa fees from tourists (from China, India and other less developed nations). The country further addicted to cheap mass tourism, further pushing the population into supplying the tourism sector. A parents today will push his children immediately into servicing tourism as it's the quickest way to make money.

It's this addiction to tourism that keeps Thailand well below Vietnam, Malaysia, etc - always a push for short term gain over any long term strategy.

This leaves Thailand at the mercy of world events that may effect tourism, any wars, any economic downturns, any incidents in Thailand that could harm tourism. We saw this with covid, and if the war with Cambodia had esculated into any tourist area it would have devastated the economy.

The only solution is to invest in education, and push the people away from cheap tourism. Reinstate the billions lost to visa giveaway schemes, and plough that money into education for local Thais. That means pivoting away from cheap tourists, and push more for quality OVER QUANTITY. Higher spending tourists (means removing the riff raff cheap trash visitors) will need less workers to service them but for the same revenue. The rest of the population, now better educated into different sectors, creating wealth, business.

Are you including the 12 month renewable tourists scraping by on a foreign pension in your rant?

have been there a few times,love it and the people,can understand how that can happen. Thailand seems to be stuck in the 80's,nothing new to see ,prices up,sevice down smile gone.slightly faded and jaded

On 1/6/2026 at 10:20 PM, Lingba said:

No surprise...Thailand is in a clusterf**k now..in fact always has been...If they didnt sell sex, nobody would come

Well the vast majority of tourists come to Phuket for the culture, food and friendly atmosphere, who as far as I can see are mostly made up of couples, tour groups or families with children, perhaps you hang around the wrong sorts of areas and do not see these types of people, that says more about you than the vast majority of tourists who visit Thailand.

Your comment is an insult to those people, they would probably would just laugh at it and think you are a bit of a nutter.

I had a large Thai restaurant in the UK for 25+ years run under management, when I used to visit and meet the customers they told me of how they loved Thailand, they were all decent types like most of the tourists who visit Thailand.

I can not speak for places like Pattaya though as when I was there in 2019 I left after a day due to the low life, or maybe as a tourist visitor I was in the wrong area, and thus had a unfair negative view of the place.

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Fascinating how a communist nation is beating the nation that refers to itself as a democracy, it says an awful lot doesn't it? Thailand is doing so many things wrong and the degree to which their administrations are regressive is quite shameful, they could be doing so much better.

It’s no coincidence that Thailand’s continuing decline in the PISA educational tables and English proficiency accompanies this economic lethargy. Yes there are other factors alluded to here, all of which, in addition to the aforementioned are fundamentally the flaw of government. Sadly the prognosis can only be further decline so chronic are those issues.

5 hours ago, JamesPhuket10 said:

Well the vast majority of tourists come to Phuket for the culture, food and friendly atmosphere, who as far as I can see are mostly made up of couples, tour groups or families with children, perhaps you hang around the wrong sorts of areas and do not see these types of people, that says more about you than the vast majority of tourists who visit Thailand.

Your comment is an insult to those people, they would probably would just laugh at it and think you are a bit of a nutter.

I had a large Thai restaurant in the UK for 25+ years run under management, when I used to visit and meet the customers they told me of how they loved Thailand, they were all decent types like most of the tourists who visit Thailand.

I can not speak for places like Pattaya though as when I was there in 2019 I left after a day due to the low life, or maybe as a tourist visitor I was in the wrong area, and thus had a unfair negative view of the place.

I couldn't agree with you more. I would put the number of tourists who come here for sex at under 5% these days. Guys like @Lingba are either living in Pattaya near Beach road, or are stuck in the distant past. Or it's possible that guy hasn't been here in 10 or 20 years. Things have changed alot, Thailand has become infinitely more family oriented, the sex trade has diminished dramatically, and everything is changing at this point.

On 1/6/2026 at 7:52 PM, BayArea said:

many Thai apologists hate this fact.

If they didnt sell sex, nobody not so many would come ...

The sex addicts aren't as numerous, powerful or spendy as they think. It's just they cluster in a handful of locations and get a skewed sense of reality - on multiple levels.

I believe but may be wrong and can't be bothered to research right now cos busy on something else, but local Thai sex work is said to be a multiple of what the farangs bring in. It's nationwide.

It also seems extremely squalid in some parts, I saw a place in Chumpon I wouldn't have used as a toilet never mind get onto a bed there. I suspect with local wage levels and prices that's not unusual.

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

I couldn't agree with you more. I would put the number of tourists who come here for sex at under 5% these days. Guys like @Lingba are either living in Pattaya near Beach road, or are stuck in the distant past. Or it's possible that guy hasn't been here in 10 or 20 years. Things have changed alot, Thailand has become infinitely more family oriented, the sex trade has diminished dramatically, and everything is changing at this point.

True.

Twenty years ago in Patong there were quite a few areas full of girly bars.

Soi Bangla had many streets going off of it a 90 degrees which were full of girly bars, they have all now become restaurants/shops/hotels or food streets.

Down the beach road at the end of Soi Bangla there were large multi street areas of girly bars, they have also become restaurants etc.

Even in Soi Bangla itself many of the girly bars have become music bars with live entertainment with no bars girls, the remaining girly bars are not that busy, the street looks packed but most tourists just walk and look as people do in the red light area in Amsterdam for example, just out of curiosity.

Phuket is a third the size of Greater London, some people just visit the small bar areas and that is all they see, I live in Kathu, Kathu and out of the many of bars/restaurants here only one has two or three women who freelance, the rest are girly-bar free and full of standard tourists, couples etc.

This was always going to happen. As long as the elite 1% who control Thailand fulfil their desire in continuing to impede it’s progress the country will never be able to develop to at least the same standard or better than it’s asean rivals. Everytime time progressive people, read Pita, and his “radical” ideas for recognising the decline and the failure in the modernisation of Thailand and calling it out panic sets in amongst the old guard who’re the one’s who fear change the most because they’ll lose the most. The only positive is these old fossils won’t live for ever and there is a younger generation who are interested in politics, who’re better educated and have access to so much information on the internet and aren’t scared to keep asking ‘why does it have to be this way’?

Nothing new. Vietnam's economy has been growing at a faster rate than Thailand's for many years already.

At 526.41bn USD Thailand's economy was roughly only 10% larger than Vietnam's at 476.39bn USD in 2024.

So 8% p.a. Vietnamese growth in 2026 (and potentially 10% in subsequent years), compared to 1.5% forecasts for Thailand should be worrying some heads in Bangkok.

A couple of observations:

VT's growth rate seems to be based on a lot of (perfectly legitimate) public investment. But those projects will be completed eventually. Then the question arises as to underlying economic strengths which should theoretically increase after investments like that, although growth rates will inevitably shrink sharply.

Comparing things like the wider economy in both countries (like production and productivity, agriculture, trade etc.) would be more balanced and accurate. The article itself balances a high public investment emerging economy (VT) with a more mature economy (TH) struggling with the middle income trap with things like high household debt and a legacy of political instability. Can VT escape the middle income trap through investment?

TH's political instability since 2006 has had a terrible effect on continuity in economic policy making. Even now as just one small example right now: think how many Thais have sunk family savings into cannabis shops only to have the plug pulled. I know of one such case which has ruined a young entrepreneur and hit some of those who invested in her shop badly. VT like it or not has had steady communist government since 1975 which allows for steady policy development, paying off compound interest.

But what will the VT picture actually be when all the airports and bridges etc. are built?

I don't know, it just caught my eye and I'd rather make a soup than start looking it all up now ;D

13 hours ago, JamesPhuket10 said:

True.

Twenty years ago in Patong there were quite a few areas full of girly bars.

Soi Bangla had many streets going off of it a 90 degrees which were full of girly bars, they have all now become restaurants/shops/hotels or food streets.

Down the beach road at the end of Soi Bangla there were large multi street areas of girly bars, they have also become restaurants etc.

Even in Soi Bangla itself many of the girly bars have become music bars with live entertainment with no bars girls, the remaining girly bars are not that busy, the street looks packed but most tourists just walk and look as people do in the red light area in Amsterdam for example, just out of curiosity.

Phuket is a third the size of Greater London, some people just visit the small bar areas and that is all they see, I live in Kathu, Kathu and out of the many of bars/restaurants here only one has two or three women who freelance, the rest are girly-bar free and full of standard tourists, couples etc.

Was first in a Phuket in 1976. No resorts. A few bungalows on the beaches. Beachfront land was a few thousand baht a rai. They could not give it away. 

 

Went back in 1986. Had developed alot. Still very nice. Again in 1993. Far more development. Still amazing. Azure seas. Spectacular women everywhere. Great food. 

 

Did not return until around 2008. It was degraded, for the most part. But, still decent. Good nightlife.

 

Again around 2014. Nowhere near the place it used to be, with a diminished nightlife, but not awful.

Back again in 2023 and there was absolutely no charm left, very few attractive gals and Bangla Road was absolutely horrific, with barely a good looking girl to be found with the exception of just a couple of Go-Go's charging truly stupid money.

The primary population of tourists were Arabs ,Malaysians, Indians and Russians and most of them felt like low end tourists and expats. The proliferation of Russians was too much to bear. They are SO obnoxious. No need to ever return. The charm is lost. The over development is stunning. The prices were crazy. Yikes.

 

6 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Was first in a Phuket in 1976. No resorts. A few bungalows on the beaches. Beachfront land was a few thousand baht a rai. They could not give it away. 

 

Went back in 1986. Had developed alot. Still very nice. Again in 1993. Far more development. Still amazing. Azure seas. Spectacular women everywhere. Great food. 

 

Did not return until around 2008. It was degraded, for the most part. But, still decent. Good nightlife.

 

Again around 2014. Nowhere near the place it used to be, with a diminished nightlife, but not awful.

Back again in 2023 and there was absolutely no charm left, very few attractive gals and Bangla Road was absolutely horrific, with barely a good looking girl to be found with the exception of just a couple of Go-Go's charging truly stupid money.

The primary population of tourists were Arabs ,Malaysians, Indians and Russians and most of them felt like low end tourists and expats. The proliferation of Russians was too much to bear. They are SO obnoxious. No need to ever return. The charm is lost. The over development is stunning. The prices were crazy. Yikes.

 

The less gogo bars the better, they will all be gone quite soon I expect if the trend carries on.

The sort of tourists seeking gogo bars and bar girls can all stay in Pattaya or parts of Bangkok, if they are not atraccted to Phuket the better it will be.

But I hardly ever come across tourists as I do not live in a tourist area and there are no girly bars in this area so it makes no difference to me, only about 10% of the island is inhabited long term by farangs, the rest are Thai or maybe workers from Burma etc.

Many people do not realise Phuket is one third the size of Greater London, it is massive and so the few girly bars still operating in small areas in Phuket do not affect day to day life.

You said. "The prices were crazy. Yikes" even better, it will keep some people away.

But prices at Lotus, Makro and day to day living costs are the same here as the rest of Thailand, except for restaurants maybe.

Well houses are a lot more expensive to buy here but that is also a good thing as the beer advert said in the UK in the 1970's, "Reassuringly expensive".

On 1/8/2026 at 2:25 AM, NanLaew said:

Thailand has stopped this.

Rubbish.

Phuket is a perfect example of the Thai land transport mafia at work.

On 1/8/2026 at 2:25 AM, NanLaew said:

The new Long Thanh airport will open late 2027 at the earliest.

Rubbish.

It's already open. There have been test flights, carrying dignitaries, from three Vietnam commercial airlines.

The Vietnamese government has instructed all airlines that all long haul international flights must land at the new airport BY 2027. I take the word "by" to mean by the end of 2026, not the end of 2027.

https://vietnamnews.vn/economy/1732322/viet-nam-s-three-airlines-land-at-long-thanh-to-mark-airport-inauguration.html

"Vietnam Airlines operated the first ceremonial flight from Nội Bài International Airport in Hà Nội, carrying senior leaders of the Party and State, and touching down at Long Thành at 8.10am on a Boeing 787-9. The aircraft later departed at noon to return to Hà Nội, completing the symbolic round trip the same day."

https://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/traffic/vietnam-to-shift-all-long-haul-international-flights-to-long-thanh-airport-by-2027-4960431.html

"Vietnam to shift all long-haul international flights to Long Thanh Airport by 2027."

23 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

I would put the number of tourists who come here for sex at under 5% these days.

If that's the case, why are there so many girly bars and freelancers in nightclubs there? Surely, they would need to move to greener pastures.

On 1/7/2026 at 7:53 AM, JimHuaHin said:

Maybe if the Thai military were not in control, Thailand would advance. But, alas. How long before Thailand becomes the poorest member of ASEAN?

Surely it can never be poorer than Myanmar, Laos or Cambodia?

17 hours ago, KhunHeineken said:

If that's the case, why are there so many girly bars and freelancers in nightclubs there? Surely, they would need to move to greener pastures.

5% is about 2 million punters. Plus the expats and the business community. That keeps them busy.

3 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

5% is about 2 million punters. Plus the expats and the business community. That keeps them busy.

The member claimed only 5% of tourists to Pkuket were sex tourist. 2 million sex tourists is a lot That's thousands a day. 🙂

13 hours ago, Camelot said:

Surely it can never be poorer than Myanmar, Laos or Cambodia?

Thailand may go the same way as the Nokia phone company. Nokia had HUGE market share for years. They thought they would be number one forever, based on their brand and reputation. Thus, they put very little into research and development, and ultimately went broke.

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