So, inevitably in a USA that is run by a crime syndicate, Trump has now sicced his personal law firm (DOJ) on the chairman of the Fed, Jerome Powell, and the reasons are, of course, totally bogus.

Luckily, as opposed to the GOP, Powell has a spine and will fight this fascist move to gather even more power into Trump's tiny hands.

Here is a Youtube link to a statement from Powell, posted by the Fed.

'Statement by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KckGHaBLSn4

Here it is in short form.

Have to like Powell, he has ticker. Knows the conman and his henchmen have not got a clue. Be a sad day when he leaves in May.

More on it from CNN.

'Federal prosecutors open criminal investigation into the Fed and Jerome Powell'

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/01/11/business/federal-prosecutors-criminal-investigation-federal-reserve-chair-jerome-powell

"Federal prosecutors have opened a criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over his June testimony before Congress about the central bank’s $2.5 billion renovation of its headquarters in Washington, DC,

The stunning action against the independent Federal Reserve was met with an equally extraordinary statement posted by Powell in a video Sunday night, in which he said the investigation was a direct result from his ongoing struggle with the administration over interest rates. Powell said it was a consequence of broader “threats and ongoing pressure” by the administration."

5 minutes ago, theshu25 said:

Have to like Powell, he has ticker. Knows the conman and his henchmen have not got a clue. Be a sad day when he leaves in May.

Yes, he's served under four GOP and Dem administrations, and now the convicted criminal wants a Yes-man in his place.

Well, America, good luck with that, cause it sure as frack didn't end well in Turkey, Greece, Argentina, Venezuela, Zimbabwe etc.

An example:

I suppose this is the only thing Trump can do seeing as Trump himself has been indicted for espionage. Dropped or not, jack Smith wasn't allowed to reveal facts to Congress openly.

Besides being corrupt and fascist, this Trumpian move is really dumb.

Trying to destroy the independence of the Fed is a stupid move for a country where foreigners still fund 30% of an ever-increasing deficit. A boycott of USTs by foreigners has only two results:

1) skyrocketing interest rates

or (if Trump's appointed lackey Fed Chair lowers rates and prints money)

2) skyrocketing inflation

It could kill the dollar, too.

Rick Wilson wrote the book "Everything Trump Touches Dies"

So true.

I hope this backfires on Trump and whomever he selects to replace Powell is rejected by the Senate. The Senate, in fact, should send Trump a list of acceptable candidates for Fed Chair and tell him anybody else he selects will be turned down.

It was never a good idea, like just about every single thing Trump does.

Wow, what a time to grow a tiny, tiny spine Scott!

'Bessent unhappy with criminal investigation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell'

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/01/12/politics/bessent-unhappy-jerome-powell-investigation

"Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has told people that he is unhappy with the decision to criminally investigate Fed Chair Jerome Powell, a source with knowledge of the matter told CNN.

Bessent has expressed concern that the decision will negatively impact the markets."

Did Powell lie to Congresss? If he did, should he be prosecuted?

I don't like you Powell, you didn't obey me when I asked you to lower rates, you've been very disobedient, you've shown a major lack of fealty to the new king, and you need to be dismissed.

As far as I'm concerned the best way to do that is to shame you, humiliate you, try to convict you on fake charges, and always do the wrong thing whenever possible.

My name is Don. I am a humongous fool.

45 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

Did Powell lie to Congresss? If he did, should he be prosecuted?

Do try and keep up if you want to keep up the Trump shill facade with any conviction? That is the subject of the DOJ investigation before anything goes to court.

When you have Trump appointed ex Fox News hack Pirro spearheading this nonsense you can be sure its going to backfire spectacularly and probably keep Powell in his seat longer than scheduled with no replacement being approved under banana republic status risk to Congress.

On 1/12/2026 at 2:12 PM, John Drake said:

I hope this backfires on Trump and whomever he selects to replace Powell is rejected by the Senate. The Senate, in fact, should send Trump a list of acceptable candidates for Fed Chair and tell him anybody else he selects will be turned down.

Republican Senator Thom Tillis, who sits on the Senate Banking Committee, has already warned that he will oppose the confirmation of any nominee for the Fed — including the upcoming Fed chair vacancy —until this legal matter is resolved. Another Republican, Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, followed Monday with her own statement of support for Tillis and alarm over the investigation.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/former-officials-say-doj-probe-threatens-fed-independence-has-no-place-in-the-united-states-185910966.html

2 key GOP senators push back on Fed nominations following DOJ threats against Powell

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2-key-gop-senators-push-back-on-fed-nominations-following-doj-threats-against-powell-174342357.html

I sincerely wish a few in the GOP would grow a pair and caucus with the Dems so they could end this complete s**t show.

In the meantime, Powell is da man!😁

18 minutes ago, Hamus Yaigh said:

Do try and keep up if you want to keep up the Trump shill facade with any conviction? That is the subject of the DOJ investigation before anything goes to court.

When you have Trump appointed ex Fox News hack Pirro spearheading this nonsense you can be sure its going to backfire spectacularly and probably keep Powell in his seat longer than scheduled with no replacement being approved under banana republic status risk to Congress.

So if he lied to Congress, its OK with you?

What a shocker!😆

'Trump’s Attack on the Fed Is Already Backfiring'

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/12/opinion/trump-jerome-powell-federal-reserve.html?unlocked_article_code=1.D1A.prmm.Ae6dVeYBzsYs&smid=url-share

https://archive.ph/JOZCv

"Mr. Trump’s attack on the Fed is a breathtaking departure from precedent, a dangerous and scary power grab, but it’s already backfiring. If anything, this latest episode has weakened his ability to bend the institution to his will, at least in the short run. It definitely increases the chance that Mr. Powell, whose term as chair ends in May, but whose appointment as a board member does not, will remain at the Fed longer than he might otherwise have."

1 hour ago, Yagoda said:

So if he lied to Congress, its OK with you?

I never said anything of the kind. No it would not be OK, but he was likely not lying to congress about a superfluous matter that never happened as its not in Powell's character when it is clear to see the game Pirro is up to that Trump says he knows nothing about.... sinking in yet??

21 minutes ago, Hamus Yaigh said:

I never said anything of the kind. No it would not be OK, but he was likely not lying to congress about a superfluous matter that never happened as its not in Powell's character when it is clear to see the game Pirro is up to that Trump says he knows nothing about.... sinking in yet??

Maybe you should wait until the investigation is completed. But you have made up your mind I reckon, facts be damned?

Trump if not stopped is going to blow up the world financial system and usher in Great Depression 2 - destroy your stocks and your dollars and impoverish millions. It's sort of getting baked in at the moment. i'm a gold bug at the moment and have been for the last 3 years it's going to the moon.

I modelled rates go to 1% , he puts his goons in the Fed and keeps spending his BIg Beautiful Bill and said compared to the baht in 6 months after ground zero ;

Current Baseline

The USD/THB exchange rate is currently around 31.32 baht per dollar, having already declined about 8% over 2025. The 2025 high was 34.89 baht per dollar in April, while the low was 31.05 in late December.

Historical Crisis Comparisons

The 1997 Asian Financial Crisis provides the most relevant comparison for Thailand specifically:

The Thai baht was pegged at 25 to the dollar before the crisis, then devalued swiftly and lost more than half its value, reaching its lowest point of 56 baht per dollar in January 1998. That's a 124% devaluation (from 25 to 56 baht per dollar).

Initially the baht was devalued by about 15-20% to 28.80 baht per dollar on July 2, 1997, then continuously declined to 48.80 baht per dollar by December - a 95% devaluation in just 5-6 months.

Potential Magnitude for Your Scenario

Given your scenario involves:

• Aggressive rate cuts to 1% (currently around 4.25-4.5%)

• Increased government debt

• Loss of Fed independence (fiscal dominance)

Conservative estimate (15-25% decline): Dollar falls to 25-26.5 baht within 6 months. This would match the initial Thai devaluation phase.

Moderate estimate (30-40% decline): Dollar falls to 20-22 baht. This reflects moderate crisis conditions with some dollar strength remaining globally.

Severe estimate (50%+ decline): Dollar falls to 15-16 baht or lower. This would match the full 1997 Asian crisis magnitude but applied to the dollar itself, requiring a complete collapse of dollar confidence.

Most Likely Outcome: 25-35% Decline

The most probable range would be a 25-35% dollar depreciation against the baht, putting USD/THB at 20-23 baht per dollar within 6 months. This reflects:

• Thailand's relatively strong fundamentals (it learned from 1997)

• The Bank of Thailand would likely allow some baht appreciation but intervene to prevent excessive moves

• In currency crises, the currencies of affected countries have historically fallen 30% or more within six months

• The scenario doesn't involve Thailand-specific problems, so the baht would strengthen as a safe haven

The dollar falling 30% against the baht would mean going from 31 baht per dollar today to roughly 22 baht per dollar - making your dollars worth about 30% less when exchanging for baht.

However, this scenario would likely trigger global market interventions or policy reversals before reaching such extremes, as the economic and political costs would become unsustainable.

Now stocks;

Now let's look at what would happen to US stocks in your hypothetical scenario:

The Paradox of Rate Cuts

Here's the critical thing to understand: rate cuts can negatively affect the stock market when they are prompted by an economic slowdown, as corporate leaders and investors become more cautious about investing in growth. Your scenario is even worse because the cuts would be politically motivated rather than data-driven.

Since 1970, more than half of the Fed's first cuts were followed by declines of more than 20% by the S&P 500. But your scenario isn't just a normal rate cut cycle - it's fiscal dominance combined with aggressive easing during inflation.

Initial Market Reaction (First Month)

Sharp Selloff (20-30% decline): Markets would initially crater on the news of Fed independence being compromised. Growth stocks in particular would see major losses, as stocks with the highest valuations are most severely impacted when there's uncertainty about inflation or monetary policy.

The tech-heavy stocks that have driven recent gains would be especially vulnerable. Current valuations are stretched, and any threat to the inflation outlook hits these hardest.

3-6 Month Trajectory

Stagflation Setup: Your scenario would likely trigger 1970s-style stagflation - high inflation combined with economic stagnation. Here's what happened then:

The S&P 500 eked out nominal gains of just 17% for the entire decade of the 1970s, and in real inflation-adjusted terms lost nearly 50% of its value. The 1973-74 stock market crash saw all major indices lose at least 34% of their value in nominal terms and 43% in real terms.

Sectoral Winners and Losers:

Winners (potential gains):

• Energy stocks would likely surge, as they were by far the best-performing sector in the 1970s when oil prices spiked over 1000%

• Commodities and precious metals

• Defensive sectors like consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities that have pricing power and can maintain profit margins during high inflation would outperform

Losers (steep declines of 40-70%):

• Growth stocks and technology would broadly underperform as soaring inflation and interest rates compress their rich valuations, with many former darlings seeing stock prices cut 60-90%

• Consumer discretionary stocks and economically-sensitive areas like autos and housing would be hit by the combination of high inflation and slow growth

• Financial stocks would suffer from an inverted yield curve and credit deterioration

Most Likely Outcome: 30-50% Decline

Within 6 months, I'd expect:

S&P 500 down 30-50% from current levels (currently around 6,000, so down to 3,000-4,200). This reflects:

• Immediate 20-30% drop on loss of Fed credibility

• Another 10-20% as inflation accelerates and real earnings deteriorate

• Valuation compression as P/E ratios collapse (happened in the 1970s despite growing earnings)

Corporate earnings did grow through the 1970s, but valuations contracted severely as investors would no longer pay high multiples in an inflationary environment. Even if companies make money, investors won't pay today's premium prices when inflation is destroying purchasing power.

Volatility would be extreme - wild daily swings of 3-5% as investors panic, reposition, and react to each inflation print.

The key difference from a normal recession: Recession, not stagflation, is the real risk to stocks - stagflation kept stocks roughly flat with inflation in the 1970s, while recessions caused the real damage. Your scenario could trigger both simultaneously, making it far worse than either alone.

On 1/12/2026 at 1:49 PM, Purdey said:

I suppose this is the only thing Trump can do seeing as Trump himself has been indicted for espionage. Dropped or not, jack Smith wasn't allowed to reveal facts to Congress openly.

he's schedule to testify "openly" in congress and access to the public on Jan 22... it's going to be a showcase with the magies denying everything and anything

3 hours ago, Yagoda said:

Did Powell lie to Congresss? If he did, should he be prosecuted?

how many times did Trump lied to congress? if he did, he should be prosecuted

3 hours ago, Yagoda said:

Did Powell lie to Congresss? If he did, should he be prosecuted?

Your lame attempt to kill fire with fire doesnt work very well 😆

3 minutes ago, Hummin said:

Your lame attempt to kill fire with fire doesnt work very well 😆

You dont think someone who lies to Congress should be prosecuted?

8 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

how many times did Trump lied to congress? if he did, he should be prosecuted

Can you name a time when Trump has been under oath and lied to Congress? Bet you cant.

2 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

Can you name a time when Trump has been under oath and lied to Congress? Bet you cant.

Twice, but not just to Congress.

4 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

Can you name a time when Trump has been under oath and lied to Congress? Bet you cant.

invaded Venezuela, let me know if you need more but keep on mind JANUARY 6th 2021

6 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

You dont think someone who lies to Congress should be prosecuted?

NA