Well the Islamic hating, war mongers got their collective wish as Israel and the United States declared collective war on Iran and its allies. In response Iran and Anserallah have closed the Straits of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb Straits. Economists are predicting oil prices sky-rocketing from $150 to $400 dollars a barrel and in the process, wreaking the global economy.

Personally I expect that oil prices will and gas at the pump will quickly become unaffordable, and that if the war is protracted, that the global economy - including the Thai economy - will collectively tank.

With that said, I expect it will be a few days before gas prices get silly. Time to go top off. Suddenly coal plants, like Lamphun's Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) run by Hongsa Power Company are going to be the only affordable energy around. Good time to go solar as well.

What say you? Especially the Islamic hating war mongers. Paint us a rosy picture of the economic outcome of President Trump's and Netanyahu's war of aggression against Iran.

NY Times headline now:

Trump Tells Iranians to ‘Take Over’ Their Government. But How?

President Trump’s ambiguous appeal comes after he undermined U.S.-funded media outlets that normally would have helped the administration reach people inside the country.

From Gemini AI:

Based on reports from March 2025, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) and its Persian-language service, Radio Farda, faced significant operational challenges and potential "crippled" service due to severe funding cuts directed by the Trump administration.

Targeting Radio Farda: Radio Farda, which provides news to Iran to counter regime propaganda, was directly impacted by these cuts. The cuts were described by RFE/RL leadership as a "massive gift to America's enemies" including the Iranian regime, by creating an "information vacuum".

NB So the main way to reach the Iranian population now via AM or short wave radio has been diminished just when it may the best alternative to boots-on-the-ground.

That spike last June was the '12 day war'. We will see how it looks after trading reopens this evening.

2 hours ago, connda said:

Well the Islamic hating, war mongers got their collective wish as Israel and the United States declared collective war on Iran and its allies. In response Iran and Anserallah have closed the Straits of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb Straits. Economists are predicting oil prices sky-rocketing from $150 to $400 dollars a barrel and in the process, wreaking the global economy.

Personally I expect that oil prices will and gas at the pump will quickly become unaffordable, and that if the war is protracted, that the global economy - including the Thai economy - will collectively tank.

With that said, I expect it will be a few days before gas prices get silly. Time to go top off. Suddenly coal plants, like Lamphun's Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) run by Hongsa Power Company are going to be the only affordable energy around. Good time to go solar as well.

What say you? Especially the Islamic hating war mongers. Paint us a rosy picture of the economic outcome of President Trump's and Netanyahu's war of aggression against Iran.

Who are the economists predicting $150 to $400 oil? This situation is being highly exaggerated as Iran loses it ability to enforce such a closure.

3 hours ago, JerryM said:

NY Times headline now:

Trump Tells Iranians to ‘Take Over’ Their Government. But How?

President Trump’s ambiguous appeal comes after he undermined U.S.-funded media outlets that normally would have helped the administration reach people inside the country.

From Gemini AI:

Based on reports from March 2025, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) and its Persian-language service, Radio Farda, faced significant operational challenges and potential "crippled" service due to severe funding cuts directed by the Trump administration.

Targeting Radio Farda: Radio Farda, which provides news to Iran to counter regime propaganda, was directly impacted by these cuts. The cuts were described by RFE/RL leadership as a "massive gift to America's enemies" including the Iranian regime, by creating an "information vacuum".

NB So the main way to reach the Iranian population now via AM or short wave radio has been diminished just when it may the best alternative to boots-on-the-ground.

Exactly. Early indications are that this has all the makings of the debacle which followed the overthrow of Saddam.

1 hour ago, RayC said:

Exactly. Early indications are that this has all the makings of the debacle which followed the overthrow of Saddam.

Or as attributed to the late Colin Powell:

If you break it, you bought it.

5 hours ago, JerryM said:

Or as attributed to the late Colin Powell:

If you break it, you bought it.

Actually, the Trump administration's motto is If we break it, you fix it.

He's sitting up the Iranian people as scapegoats if they fail to overthrow the mullahs.

11 hours ago, connda said:

Well the Islamic hating, war mongers got their collective wish as Israel and the United States declared collective war on Iran and its allies. In response Iran and Anserallah have closed the Straits of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb Straits. Economists are predicting oil prices sky-rocketing from $150 to $400 dollars a barrel and in the process, wreaking the global economy.

Personally I expect that oil prices will and gas at the pump will quickly become unaffordable, and that if the war is protracted, that the global economy - including the Thai economy - will collectively tank.

With that said, I expect it will be a few days before gas prices get silly. Time to go top off. Suddenly coal plants, like Lamphun's Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) run by Hongsa Power Company are going to be the only affordable energy around. Good time to go solar as well.

What say you? Especially the Islamic hating war mongers. Paint us a rosy picture of the economic outcome of President Trump's and Netanyahu's war of aggression against Iran.

How exactly is the Iran blocking the straight of Hormus?

10 hours ago, NanLaew said:

That spike last June was the '12 day war'. We will see how it looks after trading reopens this evening.

Very likely that the oil price will spike upwards. A short lived upward spike I venture to guess.

Because: As stated, a lenghty closure of the strait would indeed have a serious impact on the world economy. With the result that the US will do everything it takes to keep the strait open, and I mean:

EVERYTHING IT TAKES !

PS: Not to forget, Donald has promesed lower oil prices. With regard to the mid-term elections, he can't have higher oil prices.

20 hours ago, connda said:

Well the Islamic hating, war mongers got their collective wish as Israel and the United States declared collective war on Iran and its allies. In response Iran and Anserallah have closed the Straits of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb Straits. Economists are predicting oil prices sky-rocketing from $150 to $400 dollars a barrel and in the process, wreaking the global economy.

Personally I expect that oil prices will and gas at the pump will quickly become unaffordable, and that if the war is protracted, that the global economy - including the Thai economy - will collectively tank.

With that said, I expect it will be a few days before gas prices get silly. Time to go top off. Suddenly coal plants, like Lamphun's Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) run by Hongsa Power Company are going to be the only affordable energy around. Good time to go solar as well.

What say you? Especially the Islamic hating war mongers. Paint us a rosy picture of the economic outcome of President Trump's and Netanyahu's war of aggression against Iran.

I haven't seen quotes from any economists predicting the kind of price rises you cite. Had such a high price, it would be very few purchases of oil. So market forces wouldn't support that. The highest estimate I saw was $140 which is bad enough.

8 hours ago, swissie said:

How exactly is the Iran blocking the straight of Hormus?

They're telling ships not to enter the straits. And so far, they're heedng Iran's threats.

4 minutes ago, Alan Zweibel said:

They're telling ships not to enter the straits. And so far, they're heedng Iran's threats.

Unsurprisingly! Insurance coverage withdrawals due to potential mines etc needs such heed. There has been an attack on a tanker off the coast of Oman which interestingly had 5 Iranian crew members.

In anticipation of a probable inevitable spike in oil prices I have already horded a few drums of fuel.

57 minutes ago, Alan Zweibel said:

They're telling ships not to enter the straits. And so far, they're heedng Iran's threats.

So far......Won't be long before merchant ships passing through the Strait will have Naval escorts to ensure safety. The Iranians have been harassing US vessels in that region for a very long time.

7 minutes ago, EVENKEEL said:

So far......Won't be long before merchant ships passing through the Strait will have Naval escorts to ensure safety. The Iranians have been harassing US vessels in that region for a very long time.

The straits are about 167 km long. On average 107 ships transit it daily.

17 minutes ago, Alan Zweibel said:

The straits are about 167 km long. On average 107 ships transit it daily.

It's been a good 9 yrs since I made the inbound voyage. Remote control speedboats laden with explosives has been a threat for a good while. But, now....wow......we'll see.

This article from Forbes has some interesting analysis.

Iran’s Strait Of Hormuz Closure Threat

May Be More Hype Than Reality

"... So, will the Iranians attempt to shut the Strait—and can they? While they certainly can for a short period, here’s why they probably won't."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/gauravsharma/2026/02/28/why-irans-threat-to-close-strait-of-hormuz-is-more-hype-than-reality/

The article gives three main reasons why a closure would fail or be ineffective:

1) Iran no longer has the element of surprise and an attempt to enforce a closure at this point would result in a massive air and naval response by the U.S. against which Iran has no defense.

2) China is the only major country sympathetic to Iran and gets 90% of the oil Iran exports. Because of the potential harm to the Chinese economy from an oil shortage, Beijing will put pressure on Iran to get the Strait open to shipping.

3) Other Middle East oil producers such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE have developed ways to export oil despite a closure of the Strait.

The article concludes by stating:

"All things considered, Iran has been threatening to shut the Strait of Hormuz for since the Islamic revolution in 1979 but has never actually ever attempted to do it or officially done it. While the region now finds itself in uncharted waters and a much wider regional conflict, that very fact appears to be quite telling."

1 hour ago, Alan Zweibel said:

I haven't seen quotes from any economists predicting the kind of price rises you cite. Had such a high price, it would be very few purchases of oil. So market forces wouldn't support that. The highest estimate I saw was $140 which is bad enough.

There's a global oil glut currently. Hormuz would need to remain off limits for a significant length of time but even in that unlikely event, I believe a tad over $100/bbl would be a more realistic settlement.

Since markets reopened, the average increases are noted below at around 4.5%.

1 hour ago, 0ffshore360 said:

... There has been an attack on a tanker off the coast of Oman which interestingly had 5 Iranian crew members. ...

Skylark is a shadow fleet tanker.

Som nam-nah.

10 hours ago, swissie said:

How exactly is the Iran blocking the straight of Hormus?

Drones. An Omani tanker, Skylight, is sinking right now. Russian and Chinese flagged ships are allowed though. US and allies and GCC countries? Not so much.

15 minutes ago, EVENKEEL said:

It's been a good 9 yrs since I made the inbound voyage. Remote control speedboats laden with explosives has been a threat for a good while. But, now....wow......we'll see.

How many hours it take for a tanker to transit the straits?

7 minutes ago, NanLaew said:

There's a global oil glut currently. Hormuz would need to remain off limits for a significant length of time but even in that unlikely event, I believe a tad over $100/bbl would be a more realistic settlement.

Since markets reopened, the average increases are noted below at around 4.5%.

I guess it depends partly on whether oil producers think they can make more money by not pumping more oil. And of course how much certain oil producers can be trusted not to produce more oil and take further advantage of the higher prices.

21 minutes ago, Evil Penevil said:

This article from Forbes has some interesting analysis.

Iran’s Strait Of Hormuz Closure Threat

May Be More Hype Than Reality

"... So, will the Iranians attempt to shut the Strait—and can they? While they certainly can for a short period, here’s why they probably won't."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/gauravsharma/2026/02/28/why-irans-threat-to-close-strait-of-hormuz-is-more-hype-than-reality/

The article gives three main reasons why a closure would fail or be ineffective:

1) Iran no longer has the element of surprise and an attempt to enforce a closure at this point would result in a massive air and naval response by the U.S. against which Iran has no defense.

2) China is the only major country sympathetic to Iran and gets 90% of the oil Iran exports. Because of the potential harm to the Chinese economy from an oil shortage, Beijing will put pressure on Iran to get the Strait open to shipping.

3) Other Middle East oil producers such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE have developed ways to export oil despite a closure of the Strait.

The article concludes by stating:

"All things considered, Iran has been threatening to shut the Strait of Hormuz for since the Islamic revolution in 1979 but has never actually ever attempted to do it or officially done it. While the region now finds itself in uncharted waters and a much wider regional conflict, that very fact appears to be quite telling."

Point 3 is not related to a closure of the strait, but claims a closure would have limited effect.

Points 1 and 2 presume there is someone in charge who is acting rationally and can be contacted.

9 hours ago, swissie said:

Very likely that the oil price will spike upwards. A short lived upward spike I venture to guess.

Because: As stated, a lenghty closure of the strait would indeed have a serious impact on the world economy. With the result that the US will do everything it takes to keep the strait open, and I mean:

EVERYTHING IT TAKES !

PS: Not to forget, Donald has promesed lower oil prices. With regard to the mid-term elections, he can't have higher oil prices.

Trump has not earned the title 'TACO' for nothing, except this time, there is no option to change his mind, about going to war, on the bidding of that war criminal, Netanyahu.

38 minutes ago, Evil Penevil said:

This article from Forbes has some interesting analysis.

Iran’s Strait Of Hormuz Closure Threat

May Be More Hype Than Reality

"... So, will the Iranians attempt to shut the Strait—and can they? While they certainly can for a short period, here’s why they probably won't."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/gauravsharma/2026/02/28/why-irans-threat-to-close-strait-of-hormuz-is-more-hype-than-reality/

The article gives three main reasons why a closure would fail or be ineffective:

1) Iran no longer has the element of surprise and an attempt to enforce a closure at this point would result in a massive air and naval response by the U.S. against which Iran has no defense.

2) China is the only major country sympathetic to Iran and gets 90% of the oil Iran exports. Because of the potential harm to the Chinese economy from an oil shortage, Beijing will put pressure on Iran to get the Strait open to shipping.

3) Other Middle East oil producers such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE have developed ways to export oil despite a closure of the Strait.

The article concludes by stating:

"All things considered, Iran has been threatening to shut the Strait of Hormuz for since the Islamic revolution in 1979 but has never actually ever attempted to do it or officially done it. While the region now finds itself in uncharted waters and a much wider regional conflict, that very fact appears to be quite telling."

The thing is, Iran is now facing an existential threat. So survival trumps all other considerations.

10 hours ago, swissie said:

How exactly is the Iran blocking the straight of Hormus?

"Projectiles." From Reuters:
"A projectile hit the Marshall Islands–flagged product tanker MKD VYOM killing a crew member on board as the vessel sailed off the coast of Oman, manager V.Ships said on Sunday."

Insurers will no longer insure essentially creating the a blockade.

https://www.reuters.com/world/crew-member-killed-after-projectile-hits-mkd-vyom-tanker-off-oman-manager-says-2026-03-01/

Well i am sure the iranian people will consider it a price worth paying, They are dancing in the streets. Consider what life must have been like for them during the last 40+ years.

4 minutes ago, Alan Zweibel said:

The thing is, Iran is now facing an existential threat. So survival trumps all other considerations.

The mullahs are facing an existential threat. The average Iranian on the ground, not so much.

1 hour ago, 0ffshore360 said:

I have already horded a few drums of fuel.

Well there we go , Its people like you panic buying and hoarding fuel that will cause shortages and further price rises.

Not to mention the danger of hoarding 400 litres of petrol or diesel in your garage,

By the way, It won't keep for that long , it will degrade if it doesn't explode first, sending you and your neighbours to join Iran's former supreme leader

3 minutes ago, NanLaew said:

The mullahs are facing an existential threat. The average Iranian on the ground, not so much.

What about the average Iraqi on the ground after the US invasion? Anyway, it's the current government that faces an existential threat and they're still in charge.

3 minutes ago, NanLaew said:

The average Iranian on the ground, not so much.

from what I have seen on the news, the "average Iranians" on the ground are dancing in the streets with joy, and honestly , who could blame them?

36 minutes ago, NanLaew said:

Skylark is a shadow fleet tanker.

Som nam-nah.

Correction. Skylight is the name of a tanker hit off Oman.

Reuters are reporting another tanker MKD Vyom was hit yesterday.