Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[Naam]

i can't repeat often enough that precious metals are nothing but commodities and prices are driven by offer and demand. the latter applies of course to any asset.

[Naam]

no http:/www.zerohedgegoldbugblogspotgoldsoontenthousanddollarsanouncepushing quote today?

[Naam]

Mrs Naam just announced "no sex or related actions for consecutive 72 hours starting as of now"

[churchill]

Expect lots of relief later Naam - Gold lows in for 2011 /

[Naam]

Expect lots of relief later Naam - Gold lows in for 2011 /

i'm not sure what you mean Churchill but in the present environment i don't envy "physical" goldbugs like Mrs Naam who can't act like me with a few mouse clicks. a weaker Dollar and a lower gold price are no fun for bugs even though the hardliners will keep on insisting "good for us, we can load more for less" and "we like these temporary setbacks".

[churchill]

Expect lots of relief later Naam - Gold lows in for 2011 /

i'm not sure what you mean Churchill but in the present environment i don't envy "physical" goldbugs like Mrs Naam who can't act like me with a few mouse clicks. a weaker Dollar and a lower gold price are no fun for bugs even though the hardliners will keep on insisting "good for us, we can load more for less" and "we like these temporary setbacks".

Morning Naam - If one believes CNBC USA - The Euro problems are over and the US is steaming ahead / Trichet and Bernanke are experts at smokescreens , mirrors and doublespeak /

All I know is that I don't believe them and that even if prices get massaged down in the short term in the West those in the East are happy to buy physical gold and silver at these prices which are leading to shortages in India and China /

Central Banks are buying - NONE selling

I think The begining of this year has seen some money moved from PM's to other commodities and stocks - and this week saw many Euro short - Gold Long's caught out .

'A spike in gold buying by Asian investors has created a scarcity of investment-grade gold bars in the region, supporting prices even as western investors trim their holdings.'

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ecd524fe-200e-11e0-a6fb-00144feab49a.html#axzz1B3tXvKL0

and silver is in increasing investment demand worldwide -lastest reported shortages in Germany - ' Liquidity Warning For Silver From Germany ' http://www.blogcatalog.com/blog/eric-de-groots-insights

So whatever happens short term to the price - unless the IMF or US come out to say they are going to sell their gold - I see shortages in supply which must mean 'eventually' higher prices - and I think sooner rather than later .

I think the gold price is being managed slowly up and if it continues we should see about $25 higher a month average - So $1425 by the end of January ?

[Naam]

'A spike in gold buying by Asian investors has created a scarcity of investment-grade gold bars in the region, supporting prices even as western investors trim their holdings.'

where is the "support" pray tell?

[Naam]

Central Banks are buying - NONE selling

which ones? where's the evidence?

[Naam]

I think the gold price is being managed slowly up and if it continues we should see about $25 higher a month average - So $1425 by the end of January ?

that's fine with me. but i will not get in again before i see $1,400/ounce based on today's USD value vs. €UR.

measured vs. a basket of major currencies Gold has lost nearly 10% in only 10 trading days! = definitely a sign that the positive news you presented are nothing but

[mania]

A good site to watch is http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/ Just out of interest

It shows what leaves the COMEX daily. Lately it has been quite impressive

[old wanderer]

The gorilla in the corner nobody talks about it the ETF market.

10 years ago this did not exist. You bought physical, or you bought leveraged contracts.

5 years ago you did not hear these non-stop adds on TV advertising physical gold. lots of people are buying into the market, or if these adds did not produce a profit, they would not run them.

So what is happening this week is not surprising. You had institutional investors buying into the ETF market as it is non-leveraged. Depending on when they got in, some made good profits, and we saw this when the markets opened back up after the 1st of the year. Then the follow on, with "the price is dropping" scares, which took more money out of the ETF pool.

While I am committed to the silver market, it does track the gold market, but a 2x to 4x to percentage swings. I added to my investment at $28.50 last week, and even if we should see a big spike down, I will hold tight, as next month there will be whole new world out there.

[sudyod]

The Sprott Silver ETF now commands a 15% premium to spot which should give us an idea of the growing spread between actual silver and silver IOUs. And this spread is for physical silver investors STILL don't have in their hands.

Timing is everything and it is very hard, though they try, for gold bugs to pick the one time in 30, 50, or 70 years that the futures market finally collapses. There is no way to avoid it, only prolong it. The question for me is why hasn't someone with deep pockets and a grudge moved into the physical market in a big way? Or are they now?...

Beyond metals, BB is signalling quite loudly that the absolute worst investment currently is cash. I think only natural gas has stunk because it's more of a US driven commodity and we all know how well the US economy is doing.

Edited January 15, 2011 by sudyod

[jsflynn603]

Central Banks are buying - NONE selling

which ones? where's the evidence?

See:

Central banks to be net buyers of gold in 2011 - WGC

http://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-52029920101007

If the link is not allowed, simply search using the above title from Reuter's.

[churchill]

It seems big money always wins in the US

JP Morgan Wins: CFTC Position Limits Do Not Apply (To Them)

'Gold and silver are now down hard over the past two days, and the reason may have something to do with the fact that the CFTC utterly caved to JPM in their long-awaited decision on position limits in a 4-1 vote.'

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/jp-morgan-wins-cftc-position-limits-do-not-apply-them/50663

[neverdie]

Mrs Naam just announced "no sex or related actions for consecutive 72 hours starting as of now"

It sounds like you should take a little drive, in the Kuntryside somewhere

[Naam]

Central Banks are buying - NONE selling

which ones? where's the evidence?

See:

Central banks to be net buyers of gold in 2011 - WGC

http://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-52029920101007

If the link is not allowed, simply search using the above title from Reuter's.

Central banks are expected to be net buyers of gold in 2011 for the first time in nearly two decades, the World Gold Council said on Thursday.

(Reuters) - "For next year, we will probably see a scenario where central banks are net buyers (of gold) for the first time in something like 17 years," Marcus Grubb, the WGC's managing director for investment, told delegates at the World Gold Investment Congress in London.

(Bloomberg) - Naam's wife is expected to allow her husband to keep a mia noi for the first time in more than three decades. for 2011 we will probably see a scenario in which Naam does not point out too often the advantages of trading paper gold (as opposed to his wife's preference to hold physical gold) because he will be busy otherwise.

[mania]

Would it be better to wait till Central banks are obviously buyers or get in before the crowds?

In regards to paper versus physical, the choice is there for all to make.

[churchill]

Precious Metals Default Scenarios

http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=16912:precious-metals-default-scenarios&catid=48:gold-commentary&Itemid=131

[old wanderer]

Precious Metals Default Scenarios

http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=16912:precious-metals-default-scenarios&catid=48:gold-commentary&Itemid=131

Exelent article Churchill. This reflects my thinking almost exactly. One reason I am in 80% physical silver and 20% paper silver.

But what do I know??? Better go shop for a new tin hat. Everybody knows the government will always save the day.

Another intresting headline from China questioning the international currency market and if it is a relic from the past.

[12DrinkMore]

We live in fantasy land.

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/jp-morgan-wins-cftc-position-limits-do-not-apply-them/50663

JPM will be able to carry on manipulating the silver market until something goes boink and another bale out will be made. They are being allowed to continue with the massive short position they are carrying. It would not surprise me if the decision makers in this case were under some pressure to "help out" the bank, as we surely cannot have another "TBTF" institution collapsing into itself, creating another "black hole" in the precious and fragile finance industry.

Although the term "fragile" is applied to the state of the industry, "robust" must surely apply to the size of the bonuses.

[Naam]

JPM will be able to carry on manipulating the silver market until something goes boink...

c'mon 12... when there's no gold/silver cheerlading we concentrate on conspiracy theories in this thread?

[gregb]

JPM will be able to carry on manipulating the silver market until something goes boink...

c'mon 12... when there's no gold/silver cheerlading we concentrate on conspiracy theories in this thread?

Market manipulations are not a conspiracy theory Naam. They are a well proven fiscal management tool. When the BOT steps in to buy or sell THB to maintain the price they want, we don't call that a "conspiracy" do we? The word "conspiracy" is nothing more than a snarl word used by those who don't want to acknowledge or debate the reality of the manipulation, either because the implications conflict with their dogma and it frightens them or else because they simply don't want to expend the effort.

Is JPM manipulating the silver market? The Hunt brothers did it 30 years ago, so it is not without precedent. It is a small market that lends itself to being abused by those with deep pockets. It is a plausible theory. More evidence would be required before we can state definitively one way or the other. Sadly, there is no authority that would willingly implicate JPM in a scandal. They are much too powerful in the financial world today. If they are engaging in manipulation, then they can act with impunity and there is nothing any of us can do about it.

[Naam]

Is JPM manipulating the silver market? The Hunt brothers did it 30 years ago...

the Hunt brothers as well as JPM conduct(ed) legal business transactions which, in my [not so] humble view, do not warrant the derogatory expression "manipulation". is perhaps the reason for my view that i am a non-native english speaker?

[ThaisGood]

Ok - Articles like these are part of the reason I dumped my gold last week. The goldbugs are out in force (or should I say sat in their bunkers, with shotgun, bottled water and a pile of gold bars). But outside of the sky is falling crowd there doesn't seem to be much support for gold. The $ appreciation has blind-sided gold. Without the $ driver gold is being sucked under by the great commodity de-leveraging. Seasonal demand is marked down (Joe Public in India, China) due to recession. A surprise there would strengthen price. Next years impending major bankruptcies also could spike Gold up. So the direction is down.

Ha ha that is such a great laugh when reading what people said about gold in October 2008. Hindsight is 20/20 as the saying goes but we all need to have a great laugh.

Gold will be US$2000/oz by the end of the year if our existing system doesn't completely collapse. Are average Thais buying much gold? Wealthy Thais dependent on the paper system for their wealth, or are they loading up with physical gold? I realize it's difficult to say. Where I'm at in USA only a tiny, tiny fraction of the population has even a single gold coin. There is going to be a huge day of reckoning in coming months/years as there aren't enough trees in the world to print what needs to be printed at this point.

[Naam]

Gold will be US$2000/oz by the end of the year...

let's hope people will not laugh at your forecast by the end of the year

[flying]

Gold will be US$2000/oz by the end of the year...

let's hope people will not laugh at your forecast by the end of the year

I'd be ok with it

[ThaisGood]

Gold will be US$2000/oz by the end of the year...

let's hope people will not laugh at your forecast by the end of the year

Ha I like your response. A good friend of mine who has been in gold for years says we are going to remain in $1400-$1600 range all year but I think it will be much higher if things do not collapse.

[Naam]

Gold will be US$2000/oz by the end of the year...

let's hope people will not laugh at your forecast by the end of the year

I'd be ok with it

me too, because @ 1,400 i will buy again. until then i'll twiddle my thumbs and watch

[churchill]

Why $1400 ?

[churchill]

If you're investing in gold stocks check this chart

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$HUI:$GOLD&p=M&yr=12&mn=0&dy=0&id=p47950290593&a=200108775

Gold stocks have underperformed gold by a large margin and have sold off a lot faster recently than gold anticipating lower prices - but if gold does rally from here PM stocks will go up 5 ++ % before gold reaches $1400 - The HUI is on the verge of breaking down - but if gold resumes it's up trend could bounce and break out very quickly - It is the same level now as it was when gold was under $1000 - so potential is 50% + IMO

I think if you can invest and wait for a couple of months - there is much more potential on the upside than downside risk /

I agree that stop losses are wise but not too tight in the gold market - which most traders get wrong short term /

Edited January 18, 2011 by churchill