I found this article and thought it to be interesting enough to post; sadly it's only fit to be in Bedlam, unless decided differently

DECEMBER 29, 2008, 1:54 P.M. ET

As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.

In Moscow, Igor Panarin's Forecasts Are All the Rage; America 'Disintegrates' in 2010

By ANDREW OSBORN

MOSCOW -- For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument -- that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. -- very seriously. Now he's found an eager audience: Russian state media.

[Prof. Panarin]

Igor Panarin

In recent weeks, he's been interviewed as much as twice a day about his predictions. "It's a record," says Prof. Panarin. "But I think the attention is going to grow even stronger."

Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations.

But it's his bleak forecast for the U.S. that is music to the ears of the Kremlin, which in recent years has blamed Washington for everything from instability in the Middle East to the global financial crisis. Mr. Panarin's views also fit neatly with the Kremlin's narrative that Russia is returning to its rightful place on the world stage after the weakness of the 1990s, when many feared that the country would go economically and politically bankrupt and break into separate territories.

A polite and cheerful man with a buzz cut, Mr. Panarin insists he does not dislike Americans. But he warns that the outlook for them is dire.

"There's a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur," he says. "One could rejoice in that process," he adds, poker-faced. "But if we're talking reasonably, it's not the best scenario -- for Russia." Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage, he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the U.S.

Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces -- with Alaska reverting to Russian control.

In addition to increasing coverage in state media, which are tightly controlled by the Kremlin, Mr. Panarin's ideas are now being widely discussed among local experts. He presented his theory at a recent roundtable discussion at the Foreign Ministry. The country's top international relations school has hosted him as a keynote speaker. During an appearance on the state TV channel Rossiya, the station cut between his comments and TV footage of lines at soup kitchens and crowds of homeless people in the U.S. The professor has also been featured on the Kremlin's English-language propaganda channel, Russia Today.

Mr. Panarin's apocalyptic vision "reflects a very pronounced degree of anti-Americanism in Russia today," says Vladimir Pozner, a prominent TV journalist in Russia. "It's much stronger than it was in the Soviet Union."

Mr. Pozner and other Russian commentators and experts on the U.S. dismiss Mr. Panarin's predictions. "Crazy ideas are not usually discussed by serious people," says Sergei Rogov, director of the government-run Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, who thinks Mr. Panarin's theories don't hold water.

Mr. Panarin's résumé includes many years in the Soviet KGB, an experience shared by other top Russian officials. His office, in downtown Moscow, shows his national pride, with pennants on the wall bearing the emblem of the FSB, the KGB's successor agency. It is also full of statuettes of eagles; a double-headed eagle was the symbol of czarist Russia.

The professor says he began his career in the KGB in 1976. In post-Soviet Russia, he got a doctorate in political science, studied U.S. economics, and worked for FAPSI, then the Russian equivalent of the U.S. National Security Agency. He says he did strategy forecasts for then-President Boris Yeltsin, adding that the details are "classified."

In September 1998, he attended a conference in Linz, Austria, devoted to information warfare, the use of data to get an edge over a rival. It was there, in front of 400 fellow delegates, that he first presented his theory about the collapse of the U.S. in 2010.

"When I pushed the button on my computer and the map of the United States disintegrated, hundreds of people cried out in surprise," he remembers. He says most in the audience were skeptical. "They didn't believe me."

At the end of the presentation, he says many delegates asked him to autograph copies of the map showing a dismembered U.S.

He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.

California will form the nucleus of what he calls "The Californian Republic," and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an "Atlantic America" that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North American Republic." Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.

"It would be reasonable for Russia to lay claim to Alaska; it was part of the Russian Empire for a long time." A framed satellite image of the Bering Strait that separates Alaska from Russia like a thread hangs from his office wall. "It's not there for no reason," he says with a sly grin.

Interest in his forecast revived this fall when he published an article in Izvestia, one of Russia's biggest national dailies. In it, he reiterated his theory, called U.S. foreign debt "a pyramid scheme," and predicted China and Russia would usurp Washington's role as a global financial regulator.

Americans hope President-elect Barack Obama "can work miracles," he wrote. "But when spring comes, it will be clear that there are no miracles."

The article prompted a question about the White House's reaction to Prof. Panarin's forecast at a December news conference. "I'll have to decline to comment," spokeswoman Dana Perino said amid much laughter.

For Prof. Panarin, Ms. Perino's response was significant. "The way the answer was phrased was an indication that my views are being listened to very carefully," he says.

The professor says he's convinced that people are taking his theory more seriously. People like him have forecast similar cataclysms before, he says, and been right. He cites French political scientist Emmanuel Todd. Mr. Todd is famous for having rightly forecast the demise of the Soviet Union -- 15 years beforehand. "When he forecast the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1976, people laughed at him," says Prof. Panarin.

A Russian Professor's Prediction of How the U.S. will split.

-The Wall Street Journal

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123051100709638419.html

LaoPo

I've held for a while that the Mid Western and Southern states will form the breakaway republic of Biblebeltia.

I'd like a pint of what that Russian had.

I think that a pipeful would do me!

The mid west joining Canada or falling under Canadian influence??!!!!

.....when pigs fly.

Well, some believe that Biblical prophecy predicts when the U.S. ends it will the end of the world as well.

The mid west joining Canada or falling under Canadian influence??!!!!

.....when pigs fly.

As much as the US scoffs at boring old Canada I suspect there many Americans who secretly envy it.

and its heathcare system

Well, some believe that Biblical prophecy predicts when the U.S. ends it will the end of the world as well.

Any references to back this up jimjim?

I've held for a while that the Mid Western and Southern states will form the breakaway republic of Biblebeltia.

They'd be welcome to it. The conversations I've had with 'right-wing' bible belters had me reeling in shock. Talk about narrow minded bigots!!!

They also think that everyone should believe what they believe regardless of their race creed or religion.

Well, some believe that Biblical prophecy predicts when the U.S. ends it will the end of the world as well.

Any references to back this up jimjim?

1 Thus the heavens and the earth were finished, and all the host of them. 2 And on the seventh day God ended his work which he had made; and he rested on the seventh day from all his work which he had made. 3 And God blessed the seventh day, and sanctified it: because that in it he had rested from all his work which God created and made. 4 And on the eighth day God awoke and saw that America and its host were not good. He smote it hip and thigh with fire and brimstone. 5. And being a notoriously bad shot he got the rest of the planet as well. 6. And on the ninth day he went to Mars and started over.

Of course, it's tempting to ridicule the views of the Russian Professor Igor Panarin; but he was not alone when he predicted the demise of the US economy; Nouriel Roubini and Stephen Roach were on the same train....the question remains:

would it be possible that America ends up in a civil war ?

"It turns out that Nouriel Roubini and Stephen Roach weren’t the first to predict the demise of the US economy. Russian academic Igor Panarin has for a decade been forecasting a US economic collapse in 2010 that precipitates a civil war and political break-up >>>>snip>>>>>Will it be the automobile that sets off the storm? "

Political entropy rears its ugly head

Wayne Arnold - Last Updated: December 30. 2008 10:08AM UAE / December 30. 2008 6:08AM GMT

It turns out that Nouriel Roubini and Stephen Roach weren’t the first to predict the demise of the US economy. Russian academic Igor Panarin has for a decade been forecasting a US economic collapse in 2010 that precipitates a civil war and political break-up. And now Russian state media, in a fit of schadenfreude or wishful thinking, is taking him seriously.

Will it be the automobile that sets off the storm? The US Government has not gotten into the auto business, buying a US$5 billion (Dh18b) stake in GM’s auto bank, GMAC, which is like the Vatican buying a stake in Durex. The White House is also creating a special facility within the $700 billion TARP to buy stakes in automakers, which at last check, were not part of the financial system TARP was passed to rescue. Did you feel that? The dollar’s slide just shifted into second gear.

Obviously, the US recession will continue to be bad news for exporters, whether of automobiles or oil. Discussions of imposing an income tax among GCC members will doubtless do little to encourage new investment in the non-oil sector. With oil prices likely to average half what they did in 2008, GCC governments will have a larger role to play with less income in 2009 and 2010. The trick will be engineering the switch back to private sector-led growth in late 2010 and 2011.

Discussions of diversifying government revenue might best be broached once the switch has been made, and not before, lest the still creeping privatization of the Gulf economies be reversed. In the meantime, governments need to make sure lower fiscal surpluses and even deficits don’t derail efforts to build out their vision for the Gulf’s more sustainable economic future. Mile-high skyscrapers may not be indispensable, but transportation links and downstream industries are vital.

-The National/Abu Dhabi

LaoPo

When you consider how unlikely the US Civil War of 1861–1865 was it's quite possible it could occur again. Many of the abuses it's citizens suffer today can be equated to slavery; wages barely covering survival costs, no health care... while others wallow publicly in ostentatious consumption.

It will be interesting to see if violent demonstrations by the newly unemployed start occurring. Maybe the destruction of goods made overseas and imported that once used to be made by American workers?

The mid west joining Canada or falling under Canadian influence??!!!!

.....when pigs fly.

As much as the US scoffs at boring old Canada I suspect there many Americans who secretly envy it.

Maybe a couple of skiers.

The mid west joining Canada or falling under Canadian influence??!!!!

.....when pigs fly.

As much as the US scoffs at boring old Canada I suspect there many Americans who secretly envy it.

Maybe a couple of skiers.

Come on General, you know you would like to dress up in one of those Mountie uniforms.

He's got Buckley's chance.

Right now, about 15 to 20 times more people apply to the RCMP than the target hiring goal.

RCMP recruiting: Wiki.

The World's other police forces must be green with envy.

Well, some believe that Biblical prophecy predicts when the U.S. ends it will the end of the world as well.

Any references to back this up jimjim?

And being a notoriously bad shot he got the rest of the planet as well.

Are you hinting that God is an American???

It would seem that our Russian professor hasn't the slightest notion of America or Americans, and those who feel he may have a point, even less. Civil war? Never. Breakup? Never.(though it may expad). Revolution possible, but not for many years if ever. It's becoming Europeanized, which is ugly enough.

The mid west joining Canada or falling under Canadian influence??!!!!

.....when pigs fly.

As much as the US scoffs at boring old Canada I suspect there many Americans who secretly envy it.

Maybe a couple of skiers.

Come on General, you know you would like to dress up in one of those Mountie uniforms.

I would make a great Dudley Do-Good!

He's got Buckley's chance.

Right now, about 15 to 20 times more people apply to the RCMP than the target hiring goal.

RCMP recruiting: Wiki.

The World's other police forces must be green with envy.

The Royal Canadian Mounted Police is one of the most professional police organizations in the world. They have a variety of challenges to meet, all the way from providing national intelligence and security to local policing in many communities in the four western provinces of the country. I have trained hundreds of Mounties as part of my professional background and have deep respect for them. That said, the RCMP could never handle of job demands of the New York City Police Department or the Los Angeles Police Department or Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department. The volume of cases would simply overwhelm the Mounties. But when it comes to accident reconstruction cases or community policing, the RCMP is without peer. The fact that they have more candidates than positions to fill shows the high regard that the RCMP is held among the citizens in their country. One of the great challenges of USA law enforcement agencies is to try to fill available positions. I know my old police department has openings for more than 80 police officers and they recruit all across the USA and still can't fill their quota. Perhaps with the downturn in the US economy, this will change.

When you consider how unlikely the US Civil War of 1861–1865 was it's quite possible it could occur again. Many of the abuses it's citizens suffer today can be equated to slavery; wages barely covering survival costs, no health care... while others wallow publicly in ostentatious consumption.

It will be interesting to see if violent demonstrations by the newly unemployed start occurring. Maybe the destruction of goods made overseas and imported that once used to be made by American workers?

Thank you Sceadungenga for one of the most outrageous posts of 2008 on TV, and there have been plenty. Talk about a dark Orwellian view of the USA, this one takes the cake.

It would seem that our Russian professor hasn't the slightest notion of America or Americans, and those who feel he may have a point, even less. Civil war? Never. Breakup? Never.(though it may expad). Revolution possible, but not for many years if ever. It's becoming Europeanized, which is ugly enough.

That's asking for an explanation......so: why is Europeanized ugly ?

Happy New Year !

LaoPo

While I suspect that America will one day fall as most other mighty nations have fallen throughout history, I highly doubt it will be in a year or two. I do think economic and ethnic tensions will play a factor, but the idea that the other major players would be "swooping" in to divvy up the country amongst themselves.

The "Texas" block going to Mexico, or falling under Mexican "influence" ? More likely that "block" would be expanding into Mexico and taking over, not being absorbed by it.

And the idea that the "California Republic" would be part of China or fall under their influence ?

Does this nut really think that the Chinese would be sending an invasion force all the way across the Pacific, and that the rest of the world would just sit back and pretend nothing is happening ?

And the Russians would just ski across the Bering Straights and claim Alaska ?

Unless the country did collapse in a prolonged, devastating civil war in which most of it's defence capabilities were wiped out, and NATO/UN turned their backs on them totally, there is little chance Mexico, China and/or Russia would be able to seize much of anything.

I think this professor is living on fantasies of past glories, fuelled by too much vodka.

Possible ? Yes. Probable ? No. Impossible ? Again, no.

If the economy dives far enough to resenble the Great Depression, or worse, there could well be a call for the blood of those regarded as responsible by those at the bottom (and there would be lots of them). The government would resist taking measures against the robber barons since they are dependent on them for their election. The masses could take matters into their own hands if they feel unsatisfied with government

Sceadugenga may not be far wrong, but things would have to get much worse than they are now to create a trigger.

When you consider how unlikely the US Civil War of 1861–1865 was it's quite possible it could occur again. Many of the abuses it's citizens suffer today can be equated to slavery; wages barely covering survival costs, no health care... while others wallow publicly in ostentatious consumption.

It will be interesting to see if violent demonstrations by the newly unemployed start occurring. Maybe the destruction of goods made overseas and imported that once used to be made by American workers?

Thank you Sceadungenga for one of the most outrageous posts of 2008 on TV, and there have been plenty. Talk about a dark Orwellian view of the USA, this one takes the cake.

The crime rate alone would equate to a revolution in any other country.

When you consider how unlikely the US Civil War of 1861–1865 was it's quite possible it could occur again. Many of the abuses it's citizens suffer today can be equated to slavery; wages barely covering survival costs, no health care... while others wallow publicly in ostentatious consumption.

It will be interesting to see if violent demonstrations by the newly unemployed start occurring. Maybe the destruction of goods made overseas and imported that once used to be made by American workers?

Thank you Sceadungenga for one of the most outrageous posts of 2008 on TV, and there have been plenty. Talk about a dark Orwellian view of the USA, this one takes the cake.

The crime rate alone would equate to a revolution in any other country.

1 in 100 U.S. Adults Behind Bars, New Study Says

"...(in prison) almost 1.6 million. Another 723,000 people are in local jails. The number of American adults is about 230 million, meaning that one in every 99.1 adults is behind bars."

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/28/us/28cnd-prison.html

Numbers to be worried about.

In another article I read that China has some 1,6 million prisoners and Russia about 885,000 with populations with 1,3 Billion and 140 million respectively.

LaoPo

It would be interesing to know how many of those prisoners are from one particular ethnic group.

It would be interesing to know how many of those prisoners are from one particular ethnic group.

It's all in here Ulysses G...it's all in here, for a lazy Sunday afternoon; shocking stuff

One in 100: Behind Bars in America 2008 a report by the so called: the P E W Center on the States. :

http://www.pewcenteronthestates.org/upload...%20in%20100.pdf

PRISON POPULATION 1,596,127

+

JAIL POPULATION 723,131

TOTAL BEHIND BARS 2,319,258 (bottom of page 7)

....a mere 37 pages full of info and the info you're wondering about starts at page 6 and 7

LaoPo

It would be interesing to know how many of those prisoners are from one particular ethnic group.

I think the ones in China are mostly Chinese.

Well, some believe that Biblical prophecy predicts when the U.S. ends it will the end of the world as well.

Any references to back this up jimjim?

If anyone would know, you would. An interpretation of a verse in Daniel, I believe. I'll ask my theo friend trained in my former denomination's interpretation of the Word.