Thailand to export 8.7 million tonnes of rice this year, UN predicts

[webfact]

Thailand to export 8.7 million tonnes of rice this year, UN predicts

BANGKOK: -- Thailand will export about 8.7 million tonnes of rice this year, ranking it the second largest exporter after India, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization said Thursday.

The figure would put Thailand’s exports "200,000 tonnes more than last projected and 2 million tonnes above the 2013 poor performance," the FAO’s Rice Market Monitor said its quarterly report.

Indian exports would reach 9.5 million tonnes, and Vietnam’s 7.2million tonnes, it said.

Thailand was world’s largest rice exporter for three decades until the government’s rice subsidy scheme hiked the price of its rice in 2012, making it uncompetitive on the global market.

India and Vietnam surpassed the kingdom’s exports in 2012 and 2013.After losing an estimated 400 billion baht (12.5 billion dollars) to the program, and failing to pay farmers for their last crop in the late 2013 season, Thailand is now selling its rice at market prices.

Thailand’s current stockpiles of rice are estimated at 18 million tonnes.

"Amid sustained efforts to curb its public inventories, Thailand is expected to capture much of the expansion in world demand, although most of the other rice exporters are also forecast to export more," the FAO report said.

The FAO has forecast a 5-per-cent increase in global demand for rice this year, especially from China, which is expected to import 3.3 million tonnes, and the Philippines and Indonesia are expected to import 1.2 million and 1.1 million tonnes, respectively.

Despite the higher demand, prices may not be on the rise because of an anticipated increase in supply this year.

"Global paddy production in 2014 could reach 751 million tonnes (or500.7 million tonnes of milled rice), 0.8 per cent more than currently estimated for 2013," the report said.

The combined rice stockpile of India, Pakistan, Thailand, the United States and Vietnam were about 48.4 million tonnes at the end of 2013, a 3 per cent increase year-on-year.


-- The Nation 2014-04-11

[Tatsujin]

If they do hit this export target they still have another 10 million tonnes to get rid of somehow.

[philw]

Encouraging news, it will be interesting to see how the Thai Yingluck haters respond.

[ezzra]

Predict is the operative word here... since when the UN deals in predictions? perhaps I can ask

them to predict my horoscope for this year for me???

and what happened if those predictions will fail to materialize? they will say: Oh well, it was

only a prediction...

[Ricardo]

Will Thailand be exporting the new-crop 2013/14 rice, as one recent press-release suggested, or will they be exporting the ageing rotting rice-stocks from previous crops ?

And what will happen to those ageing-stocks, if proper stock-rotation hasn't been carried-out, and they're not disposed-of promptly ?

Don't the taxpayers, who are ultimately funding this whole mess, deserve to know ?

Cue obfuscation, and claims of commercial-confidentiality or national-secrecy, by the caretaker Ministers/PM, and a continuing deafening silence from the scheme's originator in the bunkers of the UAE.

[Bkungbank]

Hope the PDRC won't protest as this good the country and farmers but the quality must still the top priority when export .

[cornishcarlos]

Encouraging news, it will be interesting to see how the Thai Yingluck haters respond.

What has Yingluck got to do with this ?

She has never had anything to do with encouraging news

[Scamper]

" Thailand was world’s largest rice exporter for three decades until the government’s rice subsidy scheme hiked the price of its rice in 2012, making it uncompetitive on the global market. "

For those who purport to wonder what all the fuss has been about regarding the rice scheme - you can start your library research with this sentence.

[sae57]

If they do hit this export target they still have another 10 million tonnes to get rid of somehow.

Plus the new harvests.

[rubl]

Encouraging news, it will be interesting to see how the Thai Yingluck haters respond.

No idea how ThaiYingluck haters will respond, but personally I'd like some details on the total amount of revenue for this projected 8.7 million tonnes of rice.

Please keep in mind that the scheme from 2011-10-07 till now has costs 880 billion Baht and the government still find itself needing to borrow more.

[apetley]

Encouraging news, it will be interesting to see how the Thai Yingluck haters respond.

Selling less rice than you were for less reward than you got two years ago is nothing to crow about especially when it is Thailands very own government who created this situation.

[billd766]

Personally I think this is great news for Thailand.

I would temper that remark with the term IF..........

IF they manage it that is great

IF they are honest and open and not count MOUs as a sale

IF they publish the sales and all the associated costs

IF the sales are open and transparent and confirmed by sources NOT connected to the government.

[caughtintheact]

The key is the market price, not necessarily the volume sold, but the article only says "market prices", not what they are or their impact. The major mistake of this government in this scheme was to set an unworkable price to get votes. If the farmers had any awareness of supply/demand and the impact on prices in the world market, they might well have not wanted the high risk of price manipulation. Governments rarely want to explain the risks, only the benefits.

Rice traders who know the business warned the government before the scheme started. The disaster that ensued was foreseeable, and if people do not despise a government that deliberately ended up costing the country over 400 billion baht, then they will re-elect the same government, and get the same results (just ask Einstein what that means), because it will have to use more populist policies to convince the uneducated thet the government wants to do even more for (to) the people. Is it really bad to hate government policies that hurt the people? Bad policies cause inflation and increase consumer prices, and aren’t we all consumers?. Rice is not the only bad policy. How about One Child, No Tablet? How about the many people who have yet to get their rebates for the new car scheme and will; be harmed by that? Also some must keep in mind that the full impacts of these policies are still unknown, and are far more likely to get worse than better.

[pattayaorganic]

Personally I think this is great news for Thailand.

I would temper that remark with the term IF..........

IF they manage it that is great

IF they are honest and open and not count MOUs as a sale

IF they publish the sales and all the associated costs

IF the sales are open and transparent and confirmed by sources NOT connected to the government.

You are obviously an arrogant, elite ammart, who doesn't care anything about Thailand's poor farmers as the scheme was designed only to help the poor people. Demanding transparency? Are you crazy? This is PTP democracy, we win the election, we get the whole country as our personal trough to feed our pigs/friends. All you people who expect sound policy for the good of all of Thailand are just cold-hearted rich elites.

Oh and by the way, not sure if it really good news for Thailand as the entire reason that nobody from PTP govt. wanted to sell any rice is because they were knew damn well that once the cockamamy scheme to manipulate global rice prices didn't work that any sales would expose the massive debts and corruption (check on how many traders imported cheap Lao and Myanmar paddy and received double their money for one example), massive and illegal levels of methyl-bromide used to cover the rotting stocks piling up due to fear of exposure to the fact that the scheme wasn't working.

So selling the rice at "market prices" is not good news in any way shape or form if you are PTP because it will expose the corruption, mismanagement and dereliction of duty of those that devised/managed the scheme.

Just a typical example of Taksinism where you paint a picture of helping the poor when you are mere lining your buddy's pockets (check the contracts to build all the massive warehouses to house this mountain of rotting, poor quality rice.

The FAO article talks only about quantity. The Thai rice used to be of a premium quality on international markets but now it is merely the bottom of the barrel, dung and insect infested, chemically tainted crap. Trust me red supporters, when the final accounting is done, you will not be happy with what you see and the unprecedented level of incompetence of both the scheme design and its management of implementation will be open to all.

I wonder what democracy supporters have to say about allowing a fugitive criminal to devise a scheme that allows his sister to win an election and cause the largest financial losses in the history of the state ? Nevermind about using thug mafia criminals to intimidate and murder opposing party canvassers and other wonderful features of red democracy....

"But, but, but....we WON the election!" Yeah OK Lance go collect your medals. You blame Suthep to be anti-democratic because he wants a reformed system that allows FAIR AND FREE elections. You twist and spin because his proposed means to that end is an "unelected government" and focus only on that all the while your red PTP thugs are murdering political opponents and threatening their families.

Can some Red apologists please explain to me why it is OK to murder your political opponents? Can you please explain to me why the police have NEVER arrested anybody in these political murders. Can you please explain to me why a former police officer who is now a top official in government can literally let his son get away with murder and you still claim that you support the rule of law? Can you please explain to me why a fugitive criminal and his entire family can spearhead these criminal schemes causing massive losses to the nation and that anybody who opposes this is automatically anti-democratic?

Edited April 12, 2014 by pattayaorganic

[robblok]

Personally I think this is great news for Thailand.

I would temper that remark with the term IF..........

IF they manage it that is great

IF they are honest and open and not count MOUs as a sale

IF they publish the sales and all the associated costs

IF the sales are open and transparent and confirmed by sources NOT connected to the government.

You are obviously an arrogant, elite ammart, who doesn't care anything about Thailand's poor farmers as the scheme was designed only to help the poor people. Demanding transparency? Are you crazy? This is PTP democracy, we win the election, we get the whole country as our personal trough to feed our pigs/friends. All you people who expect sound policy for the good of all of Thailand are just cold-hearted rich elites.

Yes how dare you ask for transparency then the PTP can't steal and rob the country blind.

[Ricardo]

The key is the market price, not necessarily the volume sold, but the article only says "market prices", not what they are or their impact. The major mistake of this government in this scheme was to set an unworkable price to get votes. If the farmers had any awareness of supply/demand and the impact on prices in the world market, they might well have not wanted the high risk of price manipulation. Governments rarely want to explain the risks, only the benefits.

Rice traders who know the business warned the government before the scheme started. The disaster that ensued was foreseeable, and if people do not despise a government that deliberately ended up costing the country over 400 billion baht, then they will re-elect the same government, and get the same results (just ask Einstein what that means), because it will have to use more populist policies to convince the uneducated thet the government wants to do even more for (to) the people. Is it really bad to hate government policies that hurt the people? Bad policies cause inflation and increase consumer prices, and aren’t we all consumers?. Rice is not the only bad policy. How about One Child, No Tablet? How about the many people who have yet to get their rebates for the new car scheme and will; be harmed by that? Also some must keep in mind that the full impacts of these policies are still unknown, and are far more likely to get worse than better.

"One Child, No Tablet"

[robblok]

Encouraging news, it will be interesting to see how the Thai Yingluck haters respond.

They respond with reason and distrust, and temper the optimism.

Seems YL supporters are the kind that sell the bears hide before its shot.

Seeing is believing.

But you seem to forget one thing.. prices wont rice according to this report.

They got 18 million tons in stock.. add new harvests to that and then see how much the stock go down.

They will know that the poor farmers are competing with the government for rice sales and they get less and less money.

So all in all the PTP haters respond with intelligence that is lacking at the red sighted supporters.

Actually its good that there are red supporters.. they make us normal people look smart.

[billd766]

Personally I think this is great news for Thailand.

I would temper that remark with the term IF..........

IF they manage it that is great

IF they are honest and open and not count MOUs as a sale

IF they publish the sales and all the associated costs

IF the sales are open and transparent and confirmed by sources NOT connected to the government.

You are obviously an arrogant, elite ammart, who doesn't care anything about Thailand's poor farmers as the scheme was designed only to help the poor people. Demanding transparency? Are you crazy? This is PTP democracy, we win the election, we get the whole country as our personal trough to feed our pigs/friends. All you people who expect sound policy for the good of all of Thailand are just cold-hearted rich elites.

Oh and by the way, not sure if it really good news for Thailand as the entire reason that nobody from PTP govt. wanted to sell any rice is because they were knew damn well that once the cockamamy scheme to manipulate global rice prices didn't work that any sales would expose the massive debts and corruption (check on how many traders imported cheap Lao and Myanmar paddy and received double their money for one example), massive and illegal levels of methyl-bromide used to cover the rotting stocks piling up due to fear of exposure to the fact that the scheme wasn't working.

So selling the rice at "market prices" is not good news in any way shape or form if you are PTP because it will expose the corruption, mismanagement and dereliction of duty of those that devised/managed the scheme.

Just a typical example of Taksinism where you paint a picture of helping the poor when you are mere lining your buddy's pockets (check the contracts to build all the massive warehouses to house this mountain of rotting, poor quality rice.

The FAO article talks only about quantity. The Thai rice used to be of a premium quality on international markets but now it is merely the bottom of the barrel, dung and insect infested, chemically tainted crap. Trust me red supporters, when the final accounting is done, you will not be happy with what you see and the unprecedented level of incompetence of both the scheme design and its management of implementation will be open to all.

I wonder what democracy supporters have to say about allowing a fugitive criminal to devise a scheme that allows his sister to win an election and cause the largest financial losses in the history of the state ? Nevermind about using thug mafia criminals to intimidate and murder opposing party canvassers and other wonderful features of red democracy....

"But, but, but....we WON the election!" Yeah OK Lance go collect your medals. You blame Suthep to be anti-democratic because he wants a reformed system that allows FAIR AND FREE elections. You twist and spin because his proposed means to that end is an "unelected government" and focus only on that all the while your red PTP thugs are murdering political opponents and threatening their families.

Can some Red apologists please explain to me why it is OK to murder your political opponents? Can you please explain to me why the police have NEVER arrested anybody in these political murders. Can you please explain to me why a former police officer who is now a top official in government can literally let his son get away with murder and you still claim that you support the rule of law? Can you please explain to me why a fugitive criminal and his entire family can spearhead these criminal schemes causing massive losses to the nation and that anybody who opposes this is automatically anti-democratic?

How very nice of you to respond to my post.

If your reply was sarcasm then I am happy with your reply.

If on the other hand it was not then you really have no idea about me at all and if that was the best response you could manage then please save yourself the bother next tme.

[Ricardo]

Encouraging news, it will be interesting to see how the Thai Yingluck haters respond.

They respond with reason and distrust, and temper the optimism.

Seems YL supporters are the kind that sell the bears hide before its shot.

Seeing is believing.

But you seem to forget one thing.. prices wont rice according to this report.

They got 18 million tons in stock.. add new harvests to that and then see how much the stock go down.

They will know that the poor farmers are competing with the government for rice sales and they get less and less money.

So all in all the PTP haters respond with intelligence that is lacking at the red sighted supporters.

Actually its good that there are red supporters.. they make us normal people look smart.

"add new harvests to that"

I've been away travelling overseas, so may well have missed it, but didn't the previous PTP-policy of purchasing rice @ B15k/ton expire on 28th February ?

Have they actually promised to keep buying it, at any fixed/election-promised price, beyond that date ?

I'd be grateful for any link, if anybody has one.

And wonder what the farmers' response would be, if the 'pre-election promise' from Spring-2011 has now finally expired ?

[wprime]

Who's going to pay ~8000 baht/ton of Thai rice now that Thailand has stopped buying it back at 15,000 baht/ton?

I thought the whole reason people were buying the rice was to sell it back to Thailand under the rice pledge.

[robblok]

Encouraging news, it will be interesting to see how the Thai Yingluck haters respond.

They respond with reason and distrust, and temper the optimism.

Seems YL supporters are the kind that sell the bears hide before its shot.

Seeing is believing.

But you seem to forget one thing.. prices wont rice according to this report.

They got 18 million tons in stock.. add new harvests to that and then see how much the stock go down.

They will know that the poor farmers are competing with the government for rice sales and they get less and less money.

So all in all the PTP haters respond with intelligence that is lacking at the red sighted supporters.

Actually its good that there are red supporters.. they make us normal people look smart.

"add new harvests to that"

I've been away travelling overseas, so may well have missed it, but didn't the previous PTP-policy of purchasing rice @ B15k/ton expire on 28th February ?

Have they actually promised to keep buying it, at any fixed/election-promised price, beyond that date ?

I'd be grateful for any link, if anybody has one.

And wonder what the farmers' response would be, if the 'pre-election promise' from Spring-2011 has now finally expired ?

I did not meant they would start pledging that, but that new harvest will be sold one way or the other and will be part of the total export. So either the farmers cant sell their rice or the government is not going to sell the full 8.7 million tonnes.

[VincentRJ]

Is this brown rice or white rice? I assume it's white rice.

It always amazes me how difficult it is to get served brown rice in a restaurant. Don't people know that brown rice is more nutritional than white rice, just as wholemeal bread is more nutritional than white bread?