Will Condo Prices In Bangkok Go Up Or Down?

[ding]

Can you folks help settle a question? I have a pal that thinks prices there will decrease. And I think Bangers is a world class city. The world seems to be discovering it more and more. If the Muslim strife or bird flu doesn't scare away westerners it should grow into that role, I think.

My friend says that Thailand's sagging tourism rate will drag it down and prices will tank.

My thought is that if condos in -San Francisco, Tokyo, New York, Paris, London, and Berlin- sell for over $500Million US then Bangkok in very undervalued.

Decrease option added.

Astral

Moderator

Edited September 19, 2006 by astral

[Thaiquila]

Well, a decent condo in San Franisco is not 500 million US. More like 700,000 to a million. Of course, you can spend more. Your poll didn't include any downside choices.

I don't think it is valid to compare Bangkok to New York or London, but you could compare it to Kuala Lumpur or Calcutta.

Edited September 19, 2006 by Thaiquila

[ding]

Well, an decent condo in San Franisco is not 500 million US. More like 700,000 to a million. Of course, you can spend more. Your poll didn't include any downside choices.

I don't think it is valid to compare Bangkok to New York or London, but you could compare it to Kuala Lumpur or Calcutta.

You're 100% right about prices in SF. I just spoke with my daughter and that's exactly what she said. She DID think that Bangkok was a world class city on par with SF and others. That- or she was softening Dad up for some MBA cash and just agreeing with me...

As for downside, maybe just type in a % decline. Just seeing how many think it will go down will be informative enough for me. I would need my eyes opened on that one for sure.

Does Calcutta have high rises strewn throughout? I really need to get out more

[Thaiquila]

I mentioned Calcutta kind of as a joke.

I like Bangkok and it is getting better, but to compare it to New York or London just doesn't cut it.

These world class cities are CULTURAL CAPITALS.

They produce great art, theater, music, etc. in abundance.

What is the typical family outing in Bangkok? An aircon shopping mall.

And don't forget some of the downsides of Thailand at the moment:

-- Muslim unrest and terrorism

-- unstable government

-- not a world class educational system

-- tendency towards censorship

-- future of real democracy in great question

-- bird flu issues

-- visa issues for foreigners, foreigners not treated equally, unable to buy land, etc.

-- Bangkok pollution still bad but traffic has improved (skytrain)

Of course, the plus side, is Asia is on the rise again, and China will be the big story this century. So long term, Thailand could be well positioned.

My personal opinion is Buenos Aires Argentina is a better investment. Condos are still amazing bargains in a city that feels like a mix of Paris, Madrid, and New York, and their currency will come back before too long. Plus they have their own Broadway style district, except it is in Spanish.

Edited September 19, 2006 by Thaiquila

[Soju]

I can't vote, you forgot to put in an option for if I think prices will decrease.

[bluedragon]

I think the prices will flatten or decrease slightly. I don't see the Thai's really reducing their asking prices much. Regards, BD

[ding]

I can't vote, you forgot to put in an option for if I think prices will decrease.

Sorry about that, my first set of choices had 'decrease' but my subconscience must've been in stealth mode

[OldAsiaHand]

On the whole, residential condos in Bangkok do not change in price. Even after the collapse of the baht in 1997, prices never really moved much either way (except, of course, for those Thais who doubled their prices in baht so they would be the same in US dollars!).

Recently, you do hear people saying that values have risen, but this is based on the sharply increased prices developers are asking in the new buildings that have sprung up since the last collapse. On the whole, it has not filtered through to the resale market.

Indeed, keep in mind that the resale market here is very limited. Below say five million baht, you might find a buyer for a resale condo, and between five and ten you would have some chance. Over ten million baht, however, and the only way you will ever sell your condo again at any price is through dumb luck.

Forget trying to analyze the residential property market here in western financial terms. It just doesn't work that way.

[Thaiquila]

I would agree with that. The market does not behave the same way as in the west. Best plan is to buy to live in it or rent, and if you you end up selling for profit, consider yourself lucky, not something you can expect for sure.

[RAZZELL]

On the whole, residential condos in Bangkok do not change in price. Even after the collapse of the baht in 1997, prices never really moved much either way (except, of course, for those Thais who doubled their prices in baht so they would be the same in US dollars!).

Recently, you do hear people saying that values have risen, but this is based on the sharply increased prices developers are asking in the new buildings that have sprung up since the last collapse. On the whole, it has not filtered through to the resale market.

Indeed, keep in mind that the resale market here is very limited. Below say five million baht, you might find a buyer for a resale condo, and between five and ten you would have some chance. Over ten million baht, however, and the only way you will ever sell your condo again at any price is through dumb luck.

Forget trying to analyze the residential property market here in western financial terms. It just doesn't work that way.

Sound advice...there is no "real" market in BKK like in other parts of the world...where supply and demand set a market price...

A seller says I want "X" million and holds out for that...

[cclub75]

A seller says I want "X" million and holds out for that...

Mai pen rai. Go to see another seller, who will be more willing to... accept your price.

The "take it or leave it" attitude is working on both side.

It's easy to find the "weakest link".

Take a large tower. All the ads for sale will stick to the same price (every one copies each other).

But, you will always find a guy, the black little duck, who quotes a price a little bit lower (5.4 millions, instead of 5,5). He's the weakest link!

In thai language, it means "hurry up, I must sale leo leo, and i'm willing to accept your price".

[teej]

My personal opinion is Buenos Aires Argentina is a better investment. Condos are still amazing bargains in a city that feels like a mix of Paris, Madrid, and New York, and their currency will come back before too long. Plus they have their own Broadway style district, except it is in Spanish.

Do you own property in BA Thaiquila? I was interested in a loft there last year but it seems that almost all properties are sold in cash! USD also, as in carry your briefcase to the seller and hand it over... the whole thing seemed kind of scary to me. Is that really the case, or was I being fooled...?

[astral]

There is now a decrease option!!

[Thaiquila]

My personal opinion is Buenos Aires Argentina is a better investment. Condos are still amazing bargains in a city that feels like a mix of Paris, Madrid, and New York, and their currency will come back before too long. Plus they have their own Broadway style district, except it is in Spanish.

Do you own property in BA Thaiquila? I was interested in a loft there last year but it seems that almost all properties are sold in cash! USD also, as in carry your briefcase to the seller and hand it over... the whole thing seemed kind of scary to me. Is that really the case, or was I being fooled...?

I don't own there. They have an easy (little needed) pension based visa but I don't have a pension and I wasn't interested in their investment visa, even though the amount needed is minimal, you have to run an actual producing business, like a farm. Yes, I have heard about the cash in suitcases. I think you can wire it in first to an Argy bank. Trouble is Argy banks are scary and make Thai banks look good, remember they confiscated people's money during the financial meltdown some years ago. Reasons it is still cheap. But people are still buying there all the time with local assistance, including many Hollywood celebs. Indications are that mortgages will eventually become common for locals, likely to raise values in the long run.

Edited September 19, 2006 by Thaiquila

[Thaibel]

I think a lot will depend on the economic and political stability of the country in the future......

For buying and rent out the place there is still a good market available for the moment

For buying and depend on the profit......i would not risk it today......but you never know...its a gamble.

[merlion]

I think a lot will depend on the economic and political stability of the country in the future......

For buying and rent out the place there is still a good market available for the moment

For buying and depend on the profit......i would not risk it today......but you never know...its a gamble.

What will happen to the property market now that there's a coup in process?

[vegas]

I'm looking to buy right now. Think I'll wait a few months.

[teej]

I think a lot will depend on the economic and political stability of the country in the future......

For buying and rent out the place there is still a good market available for the moment

For buying and depend on the profit......i would not risk it today......but you never know...its a gamble.

What will happen to the property market now that there's a coup in process?

nothing. zero. if you don't believe me, just wait and see.

[sinam]

What will happen to the property market now that there's a coup in process?

nothing. zero. if you don't believe me, just wait and see.

The coup won't have any effect but the new decision makers and their policies may... I will be interested to see if they become protectionist or follow a more open policy. From some of the individuals background we could be in for some nation building here and that could lead to in the short term to a more protectionist attitude when it comes to foreigners... On the other hand if they get rid of the curruption and make things more transparent and efficient that may bold well for the long term...

Si Nam

[thaihome]

The coup won't have any effect but the new decision makers and their policies may... I will be interested to see if they become protectionist or follow a more open policy. From some of the individuals background we could be in for some nation building here and that could lead to in the short term to a more protectionist attitude when it comes to foreigners... On the other hand if they get rid of the curruption and make things more transparent and efficient that may bold well for the long term...

Si Nam

You are of course referring solely to the market in Sukhumvit and Silom areas, leaving out completely the other 99% of the Bangkok market which is not influenced at all by foreigners. Except of course when a foreign company (in partnership with a Thai company, of course) invests in a development in order to take advantage of the rather large growth in the real Thai housing market. None of these developments advertise or are reported in English press, of obvious reasons.

TH

TH

Edited September 20, 2006 by thaihome

[ding]

The real Thai housing market, the non-farang market, must have an increase in demand from somewhere. Is it population bubble, economic growth, or a rural move to the city?

[thaigene2]

Well I've been surprised at the small number of farang owners even in so-called 'farang areas' of Bangkok. 15% seems to be around the average number of farang owners in the Suk condos I looked at recently. I'm sure it's a lot higher in Pattaya and Phuket though..

[trajan]

I'm looking to buy right now. Think I'll wait a few months.

isnt it best to buy in times of crisis or preceived crisis??....when everything settles down will the prices go down?

I remember May 1992 when there was shooting in the streets and companies were actually considering permanently shutting down operations....god if I only bought then...

Edited September 20, 2006 by trajan

[malcolminthemiddle]

I'm looking to buy right now. Think I'll wait a few months.

isnt it best to buy in times of crisis or preceived crisis??....when everything settles down will the prices go down?

I remember May 1992 when there was shooting in the streets and companies were actually considering permanently shutting down operations....god if I only bought then...

You would have lost a fortune with the collapse of the currency and property market in 1997.

[trajan]

I'm looking to buy right now. Think I'll wait a few months.

isnt it best to buy in times of crisis or preceived crisis??....when everything settles down will the prices go down?

I remember May 1992 when there was shooting in the streets and companies were actually considering permanently shutting down operations....god if I only bought then...

You would have lost a fortune with the collapse of the currency and property market in 1997.

absolutely incorrect..

your assuming I would have sold in 1997....still here and luving it.... (bought three places so far)....

[ThaiPauly]

I am in the process of buying a Condo in the Sukhumvit area.

Since I paid my deposit in January, with an expected move in date of April 07 prices have gone up 10,000 Baht a square metre, with no more freebies like air con and fitted kitchens.

A few weeks ago I went to pay my next installment and the manager informed me that the my unit would probably not be ready until June 07. This is when he told me about the price increases.

I pointed out to him that I had a clause in MY contract that stated that if the unit was not completed by April 07 I would be entitled to a complete refund of my deposit (This is a very reputable company)

He said that if I wanted to I could have all my deposit back within a week as he thinks he can sell the unit I am buying for more than he sold it to me for !

As the whole Condominium only has 20% of its units left for sale, out of 200 (mostly low floors) I reckon that I SHOULD in theory make money on it.......when someone Thai offers you an immediate refund you have to be on a winner?

So I will continue to purchase it. Anyway I have until April to invoke the clause, which is pretty watertight.

[number6]

I'm looking to buy right now. Think I'll wait a few months.

isnt it best to buy in times of crisis or preceived crisis??....when everything settles down will the prices go down?

I remember May 1992 when there was shooting in the streets and companies were actually considering permanently shutting down operations....god if I only bought then...

You would have lost a fortune with the collapse of the currency and property market in 1997.

and made one now - ive done deal on 2 condos last week and transferred money 2 days ago should have waited for tranfer but im going ahead - in 5 years youll see it will all ber fine - look long term

[teej]

I am in the process of buying a Condo in the Sukhumvit area.

Since I paid my deposit in January, with an expected move in date of April 07 prices have gone up 10,000 Baht a square metre, with no more freebies like air con and fitted kitchens.

A few weeks ago I went to pay my next installment and the manager informed me that the my unit would probably not be ready until June 07. This is when he told me about the price increases.

I pointed out to him that I had a clause in MY contract that stated that if the unit was not completed by April 07 I would be entitled to a complete refund of my deposit (This is a very reputable company)

He said that if I wanted to I could have all my deposit back within a week as he thinks he can sell the unit I am buying for more than he sold it to me for !

As the whole Condominium only has 20% of its units left for sale, out of 200 (mostly low floors) I reckon that I SHOULD in theory make money on it.......when someone Thai offers you an immediate refund you have to be on a winner?

So I will continue to purchase it. Anyway I have until April to invoke the clause, which is pretty watertight.

Which project ThaiPauly? You paid your deposit in Jan 06 and they will be ready April 07? Did it open for sales in Jan 06 or had it already broken ground? If it hadn't broken ground yet, that is some fast building (15months)....

[merlion]

I am in the process of buying a Condo in the Sukhumvit area.

Since I paid my deposit in January, with an expected move in date of April 07 prices have gone up 10,000 Baht a square metre, with no more freebies like air con and fitted kitchens.

A few weeks ago I went to pay my next installment and the manager informed me that the my unit would probably not be ready until June 07. This is when he told me about the price increases.

I pointed out to him that I had a clause in MY contract that stated that if the unit was not completed by April 07 I would be entitled to a complete refund of my deposit (This is a very reputable company)

He said that if I wanted to I could have all my deposit back within a week as he thinks he can sell the unit I am buying for more than he sold it to me for !

As the whole Condominium only has 20% of its units left for sale, out of 200 (mostly low floors) I reckon that I SHOULD in theory make money on it.......when someone Thai offers you an immediate refund you have to be on a winner?

So I will continue to purchase it. Anyway I have until April to invoke the clause, which is pretty watertight.

Which project ThaiPauly? You paid your deposit in Jan 06 and they will be ready April 07? Did it open for sales in Jan 06 or had it already broken ground? If it hadn't broken ground yet, that is some fast building (15months)....

The Thai economy actually grew rapidly after the last coup in 1991. Maybe this bloodless coup will actually lift the thai economy on a faster track to grwoth and prosperity... keep our fingers crossed.

[teej]

I am in the process of buying a Condo in the Sukhumvit area.

Since I paid my deposit in January, with an expected move in date of April 07 prices have gone up 10,000 Baht a square metre, with no more freebies like air con and fitted kitchens.

A few weeks ago I went to pay my next installment and the manager informed me that the my unit would probably not be ready until June 07. This is when he told me about the price increases.

I pointed out to him that I had a clause in MY contract that stated that if the unit was not completed by April 07 I would be entitled to a complete refund of my deposit (This is a very reputable company)

He said that if I wanted to I could have all my deposit back within a week as he thinks he can sell the unit I am buying for more than he sold it to me for !

As the whole Condominium only has 20% of its units left for sale, out of 200 (mostly low floors) I reckon that I SHOULD in theory make money on it.......when someone Thai offers you an immediate refund you have to be on a winner?

So I will continue to purchase it. Anyway I have until April to invoke the clause, which is pretty watertight.

Which project ThaiPauly? You paid your deposit in Jan 06 and they will be ready April 07? Did it open for sales in Jan 06 or had it already broken ground? If it hadn't broken ground yet, that is some fast building (15months)....

The Thai economy actually grew rapidly after the last coup in 1991. Maybe this bloodless coup will actually lift the thai economy on a faster track to grwoth and prosperity... keep our fingers crossed.

In a year real estate prices will be at highs, baht strong and chugging right along with other asian currencies, and the SET stronger than ever. We should start a betting pool.