Thailand consumer prices continue falling in October

[webfact]

Thailand Consumer Prices Continue Falling in October
By Dow Jones Business News,
Nopparat Chaichalearmmongkol

BANGKOK--Thailand's consumer prices fell again in October from a year earlier, although rising local oil and food prices lent some support the inflation figures, the Commerce Ministry said Monday.

Thailand's headline inflation fell for the 10th consecutive month, by 0.77% in October compared with last year, official data showed. However, headline CPI rose 0.2% in October from the month before.

The October CPI data were better than the median forecast of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal that suggested a 0.97% on-year fall and a 0.03% on-month rise.

Somkiat Triratpan, director of the ministry's trade and strategy bureau, told a news conference that headline inflation picked up for the first time since December because of rising retail oil prices and some food prices as a result of the annual vegetarian festival in mid-October.

Full story: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/thailand-consumer-prices-continue-falling-in-october-20151102-00002

-- Nasdaq 2015-11-02

[TheCruncher]

Thailand's consumer prices fell again in October from a year earlier, although rising local oil and food prices lent some support the inflation figures,

I am confused. If oil and food prices are rising, then what consumer prices are falling?

[webfact]

INFLATION
Inflation continues downward trend
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Thailand's inflation remained on the downward trend in October, expanding by only 0.77 per cent from the same period last year, according to the Commerce Ministry.

The Consumer Price Index was also down by 0.2 per cent compared to September. In the first 10 months of this year, inflation rose by only 0.89 per cent on year.

The ministry attributed the low inflation mainly to low oil prices. Core inflation, excluding volatile fuel and food prices, increased by 0.95 per cent on year and 0.04 per cent from September.

Among 450 products in the inflation basket, 200 showed an increase in prices including fresh fruits and vegetables, processed food, and non-alcohol beverages. The prices of 149 items remained unchanged and 101 items including oil prices, shampoos, and soaps decreased from the previous month.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Inflation-continues-downward-trend-30272086.html


-- The Nation 2015-11-02

[petedk]

At the risk of being shouted at by TV members once again I would love to know what prices have fallen and how on earth can they say that the CPI index has fallen for10 consecutive months?

Edited November 2, 2015 by petedk

[trogers]

At the risk of being shouted at by TV members once again I would love to know what prices have fallen and how on earth can they say that the CPI index has fallen for10 consecutive months?

Price of Mama noodles?

[BuaBS]

So can the Commerce Ministry publish an exact list of items (exl oil) , that have gone down in price ? Or are the 101 idems , promotions of soap & shampoo they have seen in the bigc/lotus/.... magazine ?

[jaltsc]

Thailand's consumer prices fell again in October from a year earlier, although rising local oil and food prices lent some support the inflation figures,

I am confused. If oil and food prices are rising, then what consumer prices are falling?

TIT...If you try to rely on logic in order to understand anything the government says, you'll be a babbling idiot within a year.

[seabear]

At the risk of being shouted at by TV members once again I would love to know what prices have fallen and how on earth can they say that the CPI index has fallen for10 consecutive months?

Price of Mama noodles?

How much did the price of Mama noodles fall?

[inzman]

I've been here 10 years, has anyone ever seen a Thai lower prices? I didn't think so. How can prices be falling?

[Emster23]

If factual, pretty fair indicator economy in trouble, although experience seems they raise prices when fewer customers, at least in bars.

[SOUTHERNSTAR]

If you are living on imported food you may have experienced an increase in living costs. Lets start with a list of items that have decreased in price in the last year:

1. Chicken meat down from +- B 78/kg for deboned breasts to B 55 /kg - Macro

2. Chicken quarters - +- B 72/kg to B 58/kg - Macro

3. Pork mince down from B 130/kg to B 112/kg - Macro

4. Petrol and diesel down

5. Rice down by +- B 10 per 5 kg

6. Clothing down at permanent sales

7. Property prices falling

8. Most other foodstuffs can be bought at sales for well below normal prices, for example Nestle gold coffee bought for B 279 / 200g compared to B 380 normal price, Pedigree 20 kg (plus 2 kg extra) at B 950 compared to B 1100 etc etc.

In our area the restaurants are still charging the same price for street food as a year back, we eat a one plate meal for B 30 or the best tom yum noodles at B 40. Our vehicle and home insurance are down from a year before. Water and electricity is the same as before. Chlorine pills for the swimming pool is still B 150/1kg. Banking charges are still the same.

If you however eat at expensive international restaurants and wear designer clothes and live in BKK your cost of living will have increased, but fortunately most of us eat Thai food and don't wear designer clothes and thanks heavens we don't live in BKK.

[chiang mai]

Has anyone actually read and understood the article, it says:

"During the first 10 months of 2015, Thailand's headline CPI fell 0.89% from a year earlier", the monthly fall was......!!!

[worgeordie]

The price of vegetables are very high and have been so for

a while,especially onions,potatoes,garlic,and tomatoes.

seasonal maybe ,but fruit and vegetables are a big part

of everyones diet.

regards worgeordie

[Thian]

They still don't show the price so how do we know it's falling? When they see my big nose it's always a higher price.

[Thian]

The price of vegetables are very high and have been so for

a while,especially onions,potatoes,garlic,and tomatoes.

seasonal maybe ,but fruit and vegetables are a big part

of everyones diet.

regards worgeordie

I just bought potato's, 40 baht a kg on the market in BKK. How much in your place so we can compare.

Longkong 60 a kg for the big good ones.

Cashew nuts 150 for a plastic round pot.

Milk 92 for 2 litre meiji

Edited November 2, 2015 by Thian

[Srikcir]

Continued deflation leads to higher unemployment, lower profit margins on sales and less available capital for enterprise growth. It also contributes to higher household debt and lower government revenues that in turn weakens the government's ability to provide economic stimulus.

Thailand could be facing lower GDP growth in 2016 than in 2015 such as less than 2.5%. Meanwhile the other fours ASEAN countries are projecting much higher GDP growth for 2016 and might divert much needed investment capital away from Thailand.

Maybe Thailand can join the EU and get a bailout.

[petedk]

If you are living on imported food you may have experienced an increase in living costs. Lets start with a list of items that have decreased in price in the last year:

1. Chicken meat down from +- B 78/kg for deboned breasts to B 55 /kg - Macro

2. Chicken quarters - +- B 72/kg to B 58/kg - Macro

3. Pork mince down from B 130/kg to B 112/kg - Macro

4. Petrol and diesel down

5. Rice down by +- B 10 per 5 kg

6. Clothing down at permanent sales

7. Property prices falling

8. Most other foodstuffs can be bought at sales for well below normal prices, for example Nestle gold coffee bought for B 279 / 200g compared to B 380 normal price, Pedigree 20 kg (plus 2 kg extra) at B 950 compared to B 1100 etc etc.

In our area the restaurants are still charging the same price for street food as a year back, we eat a one plate meal for B 30 or the best tom yum noodles at B 40. Our vehicle and home insurance are down from a year before. Water and electricity is the same as before. Chlorine pills for the swimming pool is still B 150/1kg. Banking charges are still the same.

If you however eat at expensive international restaurants and wear designer clothes and live in BKK your cost of living will have increased, but fortunately most of us eat Thai food and don't wear designer clothes and thanks heavens we don't live in BKK.

I do all my shopping in Big C or Lotus and I buy local products.

I don't buy a lot of meat but I buy a lot of fruit and vegetables. Some say the prices on these products are seasonal. I guess that is true but how long is a season?

The prices you give - 55 Bht/kg for chicken and so on, are they just monthly promotions or the regular prices?

Yes, petrol and diesel down but these prices fluctuate all the time.

Property prices? What have they to do with CPI? They certainly haven't fallen in Bangkok.

I noticed a few months ago that several companies introduced new and smaller packaging (canned drinks etc. ) thereby in fact raising the price. In fact last saturday I noticed that the price of these smaller cans has suddenly gone up from 13 to 15 Baht.

Food courts seem to be keeping their prices stable but the portions are smaller.

[BuaBS]

The price of vegetables are very high and have been so for

a while,especially onions,potatoes,garlic,and tomatoes.

seasonal maybe ,but fruit and vegetables are a big part

of everyones diet.

regards worgeordie

I just bought potato's, 40 baht a kg on the market in BKK. How much in your place so we can compare.

Longkong 60 a kg for the big good ones.

Cashew nuts 150 for a plastic round pot.

Milk 92 for 2 litre meiji

Potatoes 280 B/10 kg , per kg usually 30-35 B. Longkong , a month ago , nice ones for 25 B , now season is nearly over : 35 to 40 B. Don't buy nuts nor the awful milk.

In Europe : potatoes in season and promotion : as low as 8-10 B/kg . But 1kg boilled rice = 3 B , 1 kg boilled potatoes 30 to 35 B , a BIG difference for basic food. 1 kg of real bread back home 60 B , in thailand there is no real bread , the sugary substitude 74 B /kg.

Fruit like oranges are more expensive every year . Deflation where ?

Inflation is EVIL , which is brought by banks & governments. It is the worst for the common man and savers. Deflation is good , that's why all governments & central banks & media are against it and try to cause inflation through devaluation of currency and low to below zero interest rates.

[DogNo1]

The prices for fruit and vegetables at Tops Supermarket in Central Chidlom are the same and sometimes higher than the prices at Seiyu in Tokyo. Bangkok is not cheap any more!

[torpedo1970]

This is just government propaganda and a smokescreen....

volume has gone down in packs, meaning price goes up....

even the white box of food that still cost the same as the past 3 years.... it is now smaller in size...

Thailand is not cheap anymore.......

[chiang mai]

The prices for fruit and vegetables at Tops Supermarket in Central Chidlom are the same and sometimes higher than the prices at Seiyu in Tokyo. Bangkok is not cheap any more!

Tops supermarket chidlom, the second most expensive grocery store in Thailand, behind Siam Paragon, hardly a bellweather for national grocery prices, don't you think!

[trogers]

The price of vegetables are very high and have been so for

a while,especially onions,potatoes,garlic,and tomatoes.

seasonal maybe ,but fruit and vegetables are a big part

of everyones diet.

regards worgeordie

I just bought potato's, 40 baht a kg on the market in BKK. How much in your place so we can compare.

Longkong 60 a kg for the big good ones.

Cashew nuts 150 for a plastic round pot.

Milk 92 for 2 litre meiji

Potatoes 280 B/10 kg , per kg usually 30-35 B. Longkong , a month ago , nice ones for 25 B , now season is nearly over : 35 to 40 B. Don't buy nuts nor the awful milk.

In Europe : potatoes in season and promotion : as low as 8-10 B/kg . But 1kg boilled rice = 3 B , 1 kg boilled potatoes 30 to 35 B , a BIG difference for basic food. 1 kg of real bread back home 60 B , in thailand there is no real bread , the sugary substitude 74 B /kg.

Fruit like oranges are more expensive every year . Deflation where ?

Inflation is EVIL , which is brought by banks & governments. It is the worst for the common man and savers. Deflation is good , that's why all governments & central banks & media are against it and try to cause inflation through devaluation of currency and low to below zero interest rates.

I would promote inflation should the banks pay me interest on the loans I get from them.

[hugh2121]

Noparat should try shopping at Big C, Tesco Lotus, MaxValu etc. then rewrite.

[GOLDBUGGY]

I've been here 10 years, has anyone ever seen a Thai lower prices? I didn't think so. How can prices be falling?

Probably on high ticket items, like cars, furniture, and appliances, with sluggish domestic demand. Who has money for this anymore anyway? I read recently that Udon Thani Shopping Malls are dead, and nobody is even buying Motor Bikes now. A lot of sales on clothes now to. If I could only find something here that fits me besides a Sigha Muscle Shirt.

They can doctor this up anyway they want to and call it Disinflationary, but that is when the Inflation Rate drops but not to negative territory. So the exact term for prices falling below positive over 10 months and longer is called "Deflation"

Deflation is a more serious problem than Inflation is, although in history it doesn't happen very often. Not many can remember falling prices and things selling cheaper than a year ago, but all of us remember rising ones.

Deflation causes producers to sell there products at greatly reduced prices or at cost, otherwise they won't sell any at all. Supply and Demand where the demand is very low. In return they need to recover this loss which they can do this with wages or less production. Which generally means a reduction in the workforce with layoffs and/or lower wages. Which puts less money in the hands of the consumer, and again less demand for there products.

Probably a good time to buy a new car or truck soon. At least now you should be able to get a low interest loan and free floor mats. But Thailand being Thailand, they will probably increase the price so they don't have to sell as many.

[sirineou]

inflation is desirable because it signals demand, but undesirable because it erodes savings

One would think low inflation would be a good thing, The reason it is not is because it signals low demand, But not always,

In this instance low energy costs has both a direct effect and an indirect effect,

Direct because people are spending less for energy,. Indirect because even if you remove Oil from the equation all consumer goods have an energy component in their production and transportation.

So even though there is a small demand decline, most of the slowdown in inflation is not due to decreased demand which would be problematic, but do to a decrease in production and transportation costs and IMO should be desirable.

Who would not want things to cost less to produce?

[ExpatOilWorker]

The prices for fruit and vegetables at Tops Supermarket in Central Chidlom are the same and sometimes higher than the prices at Seiyu in Tokyo. Bangkok is not cheap any more!

Tops supermarket chidlom, the second most expensive grocery store in Thailand, behind Siam Paragon, hardly a bellweather for national grocery prices, don't you think!

I think all Tops supermarkets have the same price, just a bigger selection at the Chitlom branch.