EU referendum: BBC forecasts UK votes to leave

Thaiwine · June 25, 2016

I am absolutely gutted about this decision to leave.

Firstly this should never have gone to a referendum. To allow ill-informed individuals to vote on such a complicated matter was always going to be a mistake. With very little economic reasons to leave it was always going to come down to emotion and the scare mongering of the Leave campaign meant that Bridget and Geoff in Sunderland thought the UK was going to be overrun by immigrants and voted accordingly. Cameron has royally <deleted> this up and must now resign. His fear of Nigel Farage and the racists in his own party forced the UK into this and now everyone will pay the price for his conceit. Also expect the Scottish nationalist to insist on another referendum as Scotland voted overwhelmingly to stay and will now insist on independence. And being Scottish myself, I hope this time they get it.

Its done now and as usual life will go on but why this even got to this stage will be questioned for generations to come and the consequences felt throughout the whole of the UK for many, many years.

Agree,the peasants should never have been allowed the vote. They should have been restricted to touching their forlock to the mill owners and assorted gentry.

What arrogance,and you wonder why the vote went against you.

i have accepted defeat without complaint. that's democracy

BUT, consider this

72% of people with a degree voted remain

70% of people aged between 18 and 30 voted remain

65% of demographic classes AB voted remain

That leaves me feeling slightly queasy.

The only explanation I can think of to get high percentages is there must have been low head counts in those groups

MJP · June 25, 2016

I am absolutely gutted about this decision to leave.

Firstly this should never have gone to a referendum. To allow ill-informed individuals to vote on such a complicated matter was always going to be a mistake. With very little economic reasons to leave it was always going to come down to emotion and the scare mongering of the Leave campaign meant that Bridget and Geoff in Sunderland thought the UK was going to be overrun by immigrants and voted accordingly. Cameron has royally <deleted> this up and must now resign. His fear of Nigel Farage and the racists in his own party forced the UK into this and now everyone will pay the price for his conceit. Also expect the Scottish nationalist to insist on another referendum as Scotland voted overwhelmingly to stay and will now insist on independence. And being Scottish myself, I hope this time they get it.

Its done now and as usual life will go on but why this even got to this stage will be questioned for generations to come and the consequences felt throughout the whole of the UK for many, many years.

Agree,the peasants should never have been allowed the vote. They should have been restricted to touching their forlock to the mill owners and assorted gentry.

What arrogance,and you wonder why the vote went against you.

i have accepted defeat without complaint. that's democracy

BUT, consider this

72% of people with a degree voted remain

70% of people aged between 18 and 30 voted remain

65% of demographic classes AB voted remain

That leaves me feeling slightly queasy.

As Mommysboy has already mentioned, Brexit will likely get scuppered anyway . . .

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-result-latest-david-lammy-mp-eu-referendum-result-parliament-twitter-statement-stop-this-a7102931.html

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-petition-latest-eu-referendum-rules-change-force-second-vote-poll-government-a7102486.html

bkkcanuck8 · June 25, 2016

I am absolutely gutted about this decision to leave.

Firstly this should never have gone to a referendum. To allow ill-informed individuals to vote on such a complicated matter was always going to be a mistake. With very little economic reasons to leave it was always going to come down to emotion and the scare mongering of the Leave campaign meant that Bridget and Geoff in Sunderland thought the UK was going to be overrun by immigrants and voted accordingly. Cameron has royally <deleted> this up and must now resign. His fear of Nigel Farage and the racists in his own party forced the UK into this and now everyone will pay the price for his conceit. Also expect the Scottish nationalist to insist on another referendum as Scotland voted overwhelmingly to stay and will now insist on independence. And being Scottish myself, I hope this time they get it.

Its done now and as usual life will go on but why this even got to this stage will be questioned for generations to come and the consequences felt throughout the whole of the UK for many, many years.

Agree,the peasants should never have been allowed the vote. They should have been restricted to touching their forlock to the mill owners and assorted gentry.

What arrogance,and you wonder why the vote went against you.

i have accepted defeat without complaint. that's democracy

BUT, consider this

72% of people with a degree voted remain

70% of people aged between 18 and 30 voted remain

65% of demographic classes AB voted remain

That leaves me feeling slightly queasy.

The only explanation I can think of to get high percentages is there must have been low head counts in those groups

It probably has more to do with self-interest. Older blue-collar workers probably have no interest in working abroad, while those with degrees or educated probably would be more interested in the opportunities to work within the EU and not be restricted just to the UK. Experience gained in multinational EU companies would definitely be a positive for anyone seeking upward management positions within these companies.

June 25, 2016

i have accepted defeat without complaint. that's democracy

BUT, consider this

72% of people with a degree voted remain

70% of people aged between 18 and 30 voted remain

65% of demographic classes AB voted remain

That leaves me feeling slightly queasy.

I have said too many times already, it's each country's responsibility to take care of their own people.

These people let UK vote to leave the EU. They should have done a better job to defend what was important, but they didn't do it.

They let the populists to take over the country's will and they now have to bear the consequences.

They are also the ones to blame for their country's idiots.

Now, does this sound like a US republican talk?

However we are not the US, we are the EU. What UK can now do, each individual in UK can now really push to get a 2nd referendum vote. This is the sober vote to check if the 1st drunk vote was really a good idea.

There are already ~~1.2~~ 1.9 million Brits who have signed the petition. If you are a Brit and understand what is in stake, the address is https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

This is the easy way back to the better future. You'll not even loose your face, more than you did already. Come back to us and will make the future a bit better together.

bkkcanuck8 · June 25, 2016

i have accepted defeat without complaint. that's democracy

BUT, consider this

72% of people with a degree voted remain

70% of people aged between 18 and 30 voted remain

65% of demographic classes AB voted remain

That leaves me feeling slightly queasy.

I have said too many times already, it's each country's responsibility to take care of their own people.

These people let UK vote to leave the EU. They should have done a better job to defend what was important, but they didn't do it.

They let the populists to take over the country's will and they now have to bear the consequences.

They are also the ones to blame for their country's idiots.

Now, does this sound like a US republican talk?

However we are not the US, we are the EU. What UK can now do, each individual in UK can now really push to get a 2nd referendum vote. This is the sober vote to check if the 1st drunk vote was really a good idea.

There are already ~~1.2~~ 1.9 million Brits who have signed the petition. If you are a Brit and understand what is in stake, the address is https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

This is the easy way back to the better future. You'll not even loose your face, more than you did already. Come back to us and will make the future a bit better together.

Sorry, I just don't agree with playing games after the fact. If the rules were there in the first place (one referendum, then another after negotiation has finished) then that would be fine, but changing the rules after the fact -- is stupid.... (winner of the referendum; ok 2 out of 3; no lets do 3 out of 4; etc.).

The only way I would consider it valid to rerun the referendum is if you had more people signing the petition than voted for the leave option.

tribalfusion001 · June 25, 2016

I voted to leave because the EU is Anti-democratic. Got people in Brussels making law that no MEPs can change and dictating what we do. This vote has given us a chance to get our democracy back. The markets will return to normal and the pound will gain strength soon. When the likes of Merkel dictates to Europe that is just wrong.

If the EU had helped Cameron and listened to the people, we would not be in this position. Now we will see the dominoes affect across Europe because the EU does not serve the people of Europe.

Is that really so? I thought that we all send our own, elected representatives to represent ourselves at the EU. Heck I have voted many times, did I do it for nothing? I also voted many times for my parliament. Did I do it for nothing?

I'm doubtful some Tommy from UK is able to teach me the basics of democracy.

I thought the EU is all about doing things together. Having the negotiation power of far more people, than our own single countries could ever have.

I actually start to think it's actually a good thing that the whiners got out of the EU. Now we can get things done.

Good bye Britain. Thanks for all the Fish (and chips).

I think question should be, what has Europe done for the UK, not a lot! What has the UK done for Europe, well, there are 1,000,000 Tommies buried in Europe who fought for Europes freedom, I think they would have preferred to eat fish and chips rather than be shot, blown up and have no known grave!

tribalfusion001 · June 25, 2016

It probably has more to do with self-interest. Older blue-collar workers probably have no interest in working abroad, while those with degrees or educated probably would be more interested in the opportunities to work within the EU and not be restricted just to the UK. Experience gained in multinational EU companies would definitely be a positive for anyone seeking upward management positions within these companies.

You would normally need to speak a foreign language to work in Europe, most British people only speak Englsih, but lots of Europeans are taught English at school. A bank in Spain would require you to speak Spanish and I guess the same in Romania, but Romanian.

bkkcanuck8 · June 25, 2016

I voted to leave because the EU is Anti-democratic. Got people in Brussels making law that no MEPs can change and dictating what we do. This vote has given us a chance to get our democracy back. The markets will return to normal and the pound will gain strength soon. When the likes of Merkel dictates to Europe that is just wrong.

If the EU had helped Cameron and listened to the people, we would not be in this position. Now we will see the dominoes affect across Europe because the EU does not serve the people of Europe.

Is that really so? I thought that we all send our own, elected representatives to represent ourselves at the EU. Heck I have voted many times, did I do it for nothing? I also voted many times for my parliament. Did I do it for nothing?

I'm doubtful some Tommy from UK is able to teach me the basics of democracy.

I thought the EU is all about doing things together. Having the negotiation power of far more people, than our own single countries could ever have.

I actually start to think it's actually a good thing that the whiners got out of the EU. Now we can get things done.

Good bye Britain. Thanks for all the Fish (and chips).

I think question should be, what has Europe done for the UK, not a lot! What has the UK done for Europe, well, there are 1,000,000 Tommies buried in Europe who fought for Europes freedom, I think they would have preferred to eat fish and chips rather than be shot, blown up and have no known grave!

The British had no other option but to fight in Europe.... or would you have preferred they had waited until the UK was actually invaded? It was all about self-interest..... there is no way the UK wanted a hostile Germany permanently occupying territory just across the channel....

June 25, 2016

I think question should be, what has Europe done for the UK, not a lot! What has the UK done for Europe, well, there are 1,000,000 Tommies buried in Europe who fought for Europes freedom, I think they would have preferred to eat fish and chips rather than be shot, blown up and have no known grave!

The power of being together, instead of trying to cope alone when dealing with foreign powers is generally good for all of us.

Do note that there are others who are more than happy to see weaker EU. Those whose core values are far from what most of us feel important. Some of them are even among us here.

But hey, EU will go forward with or without Britain.

tribalfusion001 · June 25, 2016

I think question should be, what has Europe done for the UK, not a lot! What has the UK done for Europe, well, there are 1,000,000 Tommies buried in Europe who fought for Europes freedom, I think they would have preferred to eat fish and chips rather than be shot, blown up and have no known grave!

The power of being together, instead of trying to cope alone when dealing with foreign powers is generally good for all of us.

Do note that there are others who are more than happy to see weaker EU. Those whose core values are far from what most of us feel important. Some of them are even among us here.

But hey, EU will go forward with or without Britain.

The UK didn't get a good deal though! I think the UK is all for standing stronger together against Russian aggression, but the current EU incumbents don't want to reform enough for the UK to be part of it.

I suspect this will drag on for while, the EU leaders are having talks about Brexit and bricking it. The UK and Germany are the strongest economies in Europe and need to work together.

I'm sure the UK will be fine, most business is done in Asia now and its a massive opportunity to gain traction there.

bkkcanuck8 · June 25, 2016

One good thing about the UK exit.... there will be one less location to split the production of the Airbus in

June 25, 2016

The petition just went over 2.000.000 signatures.
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

tribalfusion001 · June 25, 2016

The petition just went over 2.000.000 signatures.

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

Screenshot 2016-06-26 00.44.26.png

Only another 15 million needed to match the 17,000,000+ that voted Leave.

Edited June 25, 2016 by tribalfusion001

bkkcanuck8 · June 25, 2016

The petition just went over 2.000.000 signatures.

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

Screenshot 2016-06-26 00.44.26.png

Only another 15 million needed to match the 17,000,000+ to voted Leave.

And actually collecting signatures in a way that can be properly verified.... get people to take to the streets with clipboards and it actually might be taken seriously.

tribalfusion001 · June 25, 2016

One good thing about the UK exit.... there will be one less location to split the production of the Airbus in

Hmmm, funny that BAE owns 20% of Airbus...

MJP · June 25, 2016

The petition just went over 2.000.000 signatures.

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

Screenshot 2016-06-26 00.44.26.png

Only another 15 million needed to match the 17,000,000+ to voted Leave.

And actually collecting signatures in a way that can be properly verified.... get people to take to the streets with clipboards and it actually might be taken seriously.

If an online HM Govt petition reaches 100,000 signatures they will debate it in the House.

bkkcanuck8 · June 25, 2016

One good thing about the UK exit.... there will be one less location to split the production of the Airbus in

Hmmm, funny that BAE owns 20% of Airbus...

So BAE (a private multinational company with headquarters in London) owns 20% -- which means they have a seat on the board.... can be outvoted by the other 80%....

Thaiwine · June 25, 2016

One good thing about the UK exit.... there will be one less location to split the production of the Airbus in

Hmmm, funny that BAE owns 20% of Airbus...

So BAE (a private multinational company with headquarters in London) owns 20% -- which means they have a seat on the board.... can be outvoted by the other 80%....

Airbus has already stated it is commited to it's UK factories and will not pull out of the UK in the event of a Brexit

mommysboy · June 25, 2016

i have accepted defeat without complaint. that's democracy

BUT, consider this

72% of people with a degree voted remain

70% of people aged between 18 and 30 voted remain

65% of demographic classes AB voted remain

That leaves me feeling slightly queasy.

I have said too many times already, it's each country's responsibility to take care of their own people.

These people let UK vote to leave the EU. They should have done a better job to defend what was important, but they didn't do it.

They let the populists to take over the country's will and they now have to bear the consequences.

They are also the ones to blame for their country's idiots.

Now, does this sound like a US republican talk?

However we are not the US, we are the EU. What UK can now do, each individual in UK can now really push to get a 2nd referendum vote. This is the sober vote to check if the 1st drunk vote was really a good idea.

There are already ~~1.2~~ 1.9 million Brits who have signed the petition. If you are a Brit and understand what is in stake, the address is https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

This is the easy way back to the better future. You'll not even loose your face, more than you did already. Come back to us and will make the future a bit better together.

Sorry, I just don't agree with playing games after the fact. If the rules were there in the first place (one referendum, then another after negotiation has finished) then that would be fine, but changing the rules after the fact -- is stupid.... (winner of the referendum; ok 2 out of 3; no lets do 3 out of 4; etc.).

The only way I would consider it valid to rerun the referendum is if you had more people signing the petition than voted for the leave option.

The result has to stand. No rules were breached. The result is clear.

I thought it the worst possible outcome, and a badly structured referendum that should have insisted on a minimum victory of say 55%, and at least 3 countries in the union in agreement. But opinions afterwards don't change the result.

It is true it is not legally binding. In theory MPs could say no. Though this could provoke a constitutional crisis. It's unlikely.

The likely scuppering I predict would come if MP's voted against the necessary Act of Parliament. The majority of MPs are pro European, thus would likely find any opportunity to vote against it,eg:

1. The deal negotiated by Brexit is so lousy that it is not in the national interest.

2. The EU offers a compelling deal that it would not make sense to pass the Bill. (This is highly unlikely)

Any member of the EU could object to a deal. I am not sure of the legalities. Hopefully someone will post. But it is possible that one country might adjudge an EU deal too generous.

If Brexit come back with a deal similar to Norways' then the Act of Parliament would likely be passed. Such a deal would require a large yearly contribution. No say in EU policy, and some concessions on movement. But Germany has compelling reasons to approve it. Firstly because UK would be paying a very big premium. And their trading relationship with UK would not be jeopardised. Brexits might oppose such a deal, because it would violate their beliefs in free access and inviolable border rights.

So it really is up to the Brexiters to do the business. If they fail in negotiations they don't get their result enacted.

I sincerely hope we do not get any more ill advised or poorly devised referedums. In order for a result to be sound the staus quo must be significantly dislodged. In this latest case a protest vote is threatening a major constitutional change. Madness!

Edited June 25, 2016 by mommysboy

bkkcanuck8 · June 25, 2016

The likely scuppering I predict would come if MP's voted against the necessary Act of Parliament. The majority of MPs are pro European, thus would likely find any opportunity to vote against it,eg:

1. The deal negotiated by Brexit is so lousy that it is not in the national interest.

2. The EU offers a compelling deal that it would not make sense to pass the Bill. (This is highly unlikely)

Any member of the EU could object to a deal. I am not sure of the legalities. Hopefully someone will post. But it is possible that one country might adjudge an EU deal too generous.

If Brexit come back with a deal similar to Norways' then the Act of Parliament would likely be passed. Such a deal would require a large yearly contribution. No say in EU policy, and some concessions on movement. But Germany has compelling reasons to approve it. Firstly because UK would be paying a very big premium. And their trading relationship with UK would not be jeopardised. Brexits might oppose such a deal, because it would violate their beliefs in free access and inviolable border rights.

So it really is up to the Brexiters to do the business. If they fail in negotiations they don't get their result enacted.

I sincerely hope we do not get any more ill advised or poorly devised referedums. In order for a result to be sound the staus quo must be significantly dislodged. In this latest case a protest vote is threatening a major constitutional change. Madness!

A lot of what you have posted are "after the fact" scenarios which would be almost impossible to stop.

Article 50 invocation will lead to automatic withdrawal after 2 years UNLESS a unanimous agreement of both the member state AND European Council....

It would likely be very difficult to get all to agree at that point.

Since it is just official notification - I would not be surprised if the Referendum bill and official notification is not enough already (i.e. it would not have to be passed as an act).

Edited June 25, 2016 by bkkcanuck8

bkkcanuck8 · June 25, 2016

One good thing about the UK exit.... there will be one less location to split the production of the Airbus in

Hmmm, funny that BAE owns 20% of Airbus...

So BAE (a private multinational company with headquarters in London) owns 20% -- which means they have a seat on the board.... can be outvoted by the other 80%....

Airbus has already stated it is commited to it's UK factories and will not pull out of the UK in the event of a Brexit

We will see, it will depend on the politics of it because it is not because of business reasons that the manufacturing is spread over 4 or 5 countries - it is because of European politics.

mommysboy · June 25, 2016

The petition just went over 2.000.000 signatures.

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

Screenshot 2016-06-26 00.44.26.png

That is an awful lot. Good luck to them. A poor majority, compounded by national differences. My opinion only.

NeverSure · June 25, 2016

THE mayor of Calais says migrants living in the Jungle camp and others in France should be moved to Britain so Brits “take the consequences” of Brexit.

Natacha Bouchart wants a revision of the border deal between France and the UK, which at the moment sees border checks carried out in Calais to stop those trying to get to Britain illegally.

The Sun

mommysboy · June 25, 2016

The likely scuppering I predict would come if MP's voted against the necessary Act of Parliament. The majority of MPs are pro European, thus would likely find any opportunity to vote against it,eg:

1. The deal negotiated by Brexit is so lousy that it is not in the national interest.

2. The EU offers a compelling deal that it would not make sense to pass the Bill. (This is highly unlikely)

Any member of the EU could object to a deal. I am not sure of the legalities. Hopefully someone will post. But it is possible that one country might adjudge an EU deal too generous.

If Brexit come back with a deal similar to Norways' then the Act of Parliament would likely be passed. Such a deal would require a large yearly contribution. No say in EU policy, and some concessions on movement. But Germany has compelling reasons to approve it. Firstly because UK would be paying a very big premium. And their trading relationship with UK would not be jeopardised. Brexits might oppose such a deal, because it would violate their beliefs in free access and inviolable border rights.

So it really is up to the Brexiters to do the business. If they fail in negotiations they don't get their result enacted.

I sincerely hope we do not get any more ill advised or poorly devised referedums. In order for a result to be sound the staus quo must be significantly dislodged. In this latest case a protest vote is threatening a major constitutional change. Madness!

A lot of what you have posted are "after the fact" scenarios which would be almost impossible to stop.

Article 50 invocation will lead to automatic withdrawal after 2 years UNLESS a unanimous agreement of both the member state AND European Council....

It would likely be very difficult to get all to agree at that point.

Since it is just official notification - I would not be surprised if the Referendum bill and official notification is not enough already (i.e. it would not have to be passed as an act).

There so many possibilities. I think you have to look at the will of the powers that really matter. What I mean by that is UK Parliament does not want to leave. And Germany does not want UK to leave. It doesn't take a lot of working out.

But basically, I see your very well formed, and astute point.

I doubt therefore that Article 50 will be enacted, at least until UK Gov feels it is on safe ground. And the referendum result may be challenged.

Of course, this whole thing could easily descend in to a terrible brawl resulting in sanctions and tariffs, the break up of the UK, and the EU in present format. It is quite possible.

Edited June 25, 2016 by mommysboy

tribalfusion001 · June 25, 2016

Airbus has already stated it is commited to it's UK factories and will not pull out of the UK in the event of a Brexit

We will see, it will depend on the politics of it because it is not because of business reasons that the manufacturing is spread over 4 or 5 countries - it is because of European politics.

Merkel back tracking already, but some Dutch foreign minister saying we should invoke article 50 now, who is the biggest contributor to the EU budget, is it the Netherlands, no it aint, is it France, hmmm, nope, how about Belguim, don't be silly, Luxembourg, lol, yes it's the UK!

MJP · June 25, 2016

THE mayor of Calais says migrants living in the Jungle camp and others in France should be moved to Britain so Brits “take the consequences” of Brexit.

Natacha Bouchart wants a revision of the border deal between France and the UK, which at the moment sees border checks carried out in Calais to stop those trying to get to Britain illegally.

The Sun

The French govt have already said the agreement stands, although I don't blame Natacha Bouchart for making such comments, Calais is a disaster.

tribalfusion001 · June 25, 2016

THE mayor of Calais says migrants living in the Jungle camp and others in France should be moved to Britain so Brits “take the consequences” of Brexit.

Natacha Bouchart wants a revision of the border deal between France and the UK, which at the moment sees border checks carried out in Calais to stop those trying to get to Britain illegally.

The Sun

If there were borders in Europe then the migrants wouldn't be there!

And you wonder why we voted for Brexit with that scruffy mob over the channel trying to get in...

Edited June 25, 2016 by tribalfusion001

MJP · June 25, 2016

DUS · June 25, 2016

As many people said before: It´s the young generation that lost / will lose out ... I feel sorry for that generation ...

MJP · June 25, 2016

As many people said before: It´s the young generation that lost / will lose out ... I feel sorry for that generation ...

Only time will tell now. But young people were already totally shafted in the UK with educational debts and lunatic house prices, insecure employment with no wage increases. Not sure how it'll all change now.

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