Brexit Retirement Pension Effect

[keithathome]

Stats from the BKKpost. 70 odd percent turnout to vote for Brexit. With a 52:48% split leave/remain only 36% of the total population of the UK actually voted to leave.

[Shadychris]

Stats from the BKKpost. 70 odd percent turnout to vote for Brexit. With a 52:48% split leave/remain only 36% of the total population of the UK actually voted to leave.

What a strange statement - to follow that logic through then only 33% of the population actually voted to remain. Still lower than the 36% that voted to leave.

In fact 72% turnout does not mean 72% of the UK's 65,000,000 population, but 72% of the 42,000,000 people eligible to vote. Of the total 'population' only about 24% voted to leave and 22% to remain

I'm not exactly sure what point you are trying to make?

Unless you perhaps feel that the opinions of minors under the age of 18 and convicted prisoners should have been taken into account?

Of course had the UK remained in the EU then under the barking mad Human Rights legislation it would have been very likely that convicted terrorists, murderers and rapists would in the not too distant future have been allowed the right to vote - the EU Court has already ruled that this should be the case....

Edited June 28, 2016 by Shadychris

[mrfaroukh]

That will not be any problem, they have to show an income of 65000 baht a month or 800000 baht in the bank or the combination. Now if due to devaluation of pound their income reduce from 65000 to say 50000 then there is a shortage of 15000 a month or 180 000 a year. So they can have 180 000 in the bank and still get the visa.

[Jingthing]

Probably not. If the BP and Euro go to parity with the USD, than your in the exact same boat as the Yanks. If you have a problem, you probably did not read the parable of the Ant and the Grasshopper, then ask yourself why your weren't socking a portion of your disposable income into a fixed interest Thai savings account for a rainy day. Opps. Here come the thunder clouds.

Anyway, don't worry too much. The financial and political elite class is simply attempting to scare the hell out of everyone. Look! And it works!

So let me get this straight.

Are you saying if one pound exchanged to two U.S. dollars that Brits would be twice as rich as Americans?

Edited June 28, 2016 by Jingthing

[jayboy]

Exchange rates have already started a gentle rise in favour of the £. No doubt it will fluctuate a little over the next month, but hopefully the markets will have gotten over the manic jitters by then and rationalized the positive way forward for Great Britain, without a millstone around it's neck!

I am afraid you are whistling in the dark.It only takes a little effort to research the market prospects for sterling.There has been a dead cat bounce today but most experts expect £ to drop to 1.2 to the $ by year end.Parity cannot be ruled out.Of course the experts may be wrong but they are more likely to be right than not.

[arithai12]

When Britain went to war to defeat Germany in 1938, did everyone worry about the cost of their freedom?

Or even the risk to their life?

Let's see...

retirement -> exchange rate -> war with Germany

Enough to make Freud come back from the dead.

[lamyai3]

When Britain went to war to defeat Germany in 1938, did everyone worry about the cost of their freedom?

Or even the risk to their life?

Let's see...

retirement -> exchange rate -> war with Germany

Enough to make Freud come back from the dead.

Godwin's law again...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin%27s_law

Edited June 28, 2016 by lamyai3

[theguyfromanotherforum]

As an American- I want to see the Pound recover because it affects so many British expats who have set down homes and families overseas-especially those on fixed incomes. No one should be happy at another person's suffering.

Thank you.

It is very seldom that we read anything on TVF that comes near to the generosity of spirit expressed in the above quote.

Suffering? Jesus, half of the world's population is either at war, getting slaughtered or starving. Go home to your free healthcare and council benefits you spoiled children.

Did Russians cry like babies when their ruble dropped 50%? No, they just stopped coming to Thailand.

[Oxx]

Of course the experts may be wrong but they are more likely to be right than not.

In what parallel universe do you live where professional financial prognosticators are more likely to be right than not?

For that matter, whenever is there a consensus between such experts? Look at predictions made in December last year for the FTSE at the end of 2016. Big variation:

Richard Buxton (OMGI) 7104+

Nick Peters (Fidelity) 6,100 to 6,500

Killik & Co research team 6,750

Helal Miah (The Share Centre) 6,480

Mark Dampier (Hargreaves Lansdown) Not a clue

Source: https://www.trustnet.com/News/640428/where-will-the-ftse-end-up-in-2016

[NanLaew]

Probably not. If the BP and Euro go to parity with the USD, than your in the exact same boat as the Yanks. If you have a problem, you probably did not read the parable of the Ant and the Grasshopper, then ask yourself why your weren't socking a portion of your disposable income into a fixed interest Thai savings account for a rainy day. Opps. Here come the thunder clouds.

Anyway, don't worry too much. The financial and political elite class is simply attempting to scare the hell out of everyone. Look! And it works!

So let me get this straight.

Are you saying if one pound exchanged to two U.S. dollars that Brits would be twice as rich as Americans?

Culturally at least twice as rich but fiscally no.

[NanLaew]

Suffering? Jesus, half of the world's population is either at war, getting slaughtered or starving. Go home to your free healthcare and council benefits you spoiled children.

Did Russians cry like babies when their ruble dropped 50%? No, they just stopped coming to Thailand.

So you are saying we should live in hope?

[johnnybgood]

Brexit Retirement Pension Effect......

No problem really.

Less for me = less for Somchai.

Same as it ever was.

[MissAndry]

When Britain went to war to defeat Germany in 1938, did everyone worry about the cost of their freedom?

Or even the risk to their life?

Let's see...

retirement -> exchange rate -> war with Germany

Enough to make Freud come back from the dead.

Godwin's law again...

Godwin's law only applies to topics NOT about Nazi Germany and WW2's attempt at unifying Europe.

As Brexit is essentially a continuation of WW2 and the British fight against the Germans, it's not applicable.

"Godwin's law itself can be abused as a distraction, diversion or even as censorship, fallaciously miscasting an opponent's argument as hyperbole when the comparisons made by the argument are actually appropriate."

Edited June 29, 2016 by MissAndry

[nontabury]

I'm surprised it isn't much lower with all the turmoil the remainers are causing.

Hahaha, now blaming the Remain side for the mess the Out campaigners caused, are ye? 55555555555

Anyway, regarding the pound, we´ll have to wait for 6-12 months to see the "real" impact, either good or bad.

Why as a German will the pound affect you?

[phutoie2]

When Britain went to war to defeat Germany in 1938, did everyone worry about the cost of their freedom?

Or even the risk to their life?

Let's see...

retirement -> exchange rate -> war with Germany

Enough to make Freud come back from the dead.

Godwin's law again...

Godwin's law only applies to topics NOT about Nazi Germany and WW2's attempt at unifying Europe.

As Brexit is essentially a continuation of WW2 and the British fight against the Germans, it's not applicable.

[nontabury]

I am not on retirement extentions, but surely this is something Thai authorities could take into consideration over the Brexit issue.

Thailand could easily instruct all their IOs to allow for this. But they won't and that's another reason why we are not "guests" in this country.

Why should Thailand change or ignore its rules specifically to accommodate one country.

Do citizens of the USA have to prove their earnings, or can they just simple write a letter stateing they do receive ex-amount?

Edited June 29, 2016 by nontabury

[Eclipse]

I am not on retirement extentions, but surely this is something Thai authorities could take into consideration over the Brexit issue.

Thailand could easily instruct all their IOs to allow for this. But they won't and that's another reason why we are not "guests" in this country.

Why should Thailand change or ignore its rules specifically to accommodate one country.

Do citizens of the USA have to prove their earnings, or can they just simple write a letter stateing they do receive ex-amount?

They do not have to prove anything. They are believed.

[nontabury]

Getting back to the OP's question. (wrt UK state pensions).

Clearly the exchange rate is an issue, but there are other concerns you need to consider.

Prior to the referendum there was growing consensus that expat British pensioners ought to be treated fairly and receive annual pension increase, that the injustice of frozen pensions should be removed. I believe it fair to say that even disregarding the inward looking turn the UK has taken, there will be neither an appetite or time on the parliamentary calendar to address fair pensions - I think we can now say goodbye to any chance of pension injustice being addressed anytime soon, if ever.

The second issue only really effects pensioners if they are actually receiving annual increases, there is growing disquiet amongst people who are not pensioners regarding the triple lock that provides for very generous annual pension increases. I strongly suspect this is now under threat and I would not be at all surprised if the triple lock is abandoned.

You seem to imply that there was a chance that if we had stayed in the EU. We may/ would have seen the end of the unfair frozen pensions.unfortunately you could not have been further from the truth.

There has also been some talk of pensions held by pensioners in the more prosperous parts of the EU going to support those pensioners in the rest of the EU. If that does happen,then that is one more bonus for leaving the undemocratic EU.

[MikeOwen]

I didn't bury my head in the sand and saw the drop coming so I TX'ed enough money to last me for the next 18 months ....hopefully by the time I need another injection of cash the exchange rate will have found a happy medium. :-) .

I really hope the EU implodes

I did exactly the same , common sense I think , we'll see

[hugh2121]

Last week and this week, claims by the Leave campaign:

The campaign claim: Immigration levels could be controlled if the UK left the EU. This would relieve pressure on public services.

The current claim: Immigration levels can't be radically reduced by leaving the EU. Fears about immigration did not influence the way people voted.

The campaign claim: We send £350m a week to Brussels, which could be spent on the NHS instead.

The current claim: The claim was a mistake, and we will not be able to spend that much extra on the NHS.

The campaign claim: Some on the Leave side suggested the UK does not need preferential access to the single market.

The current claim: The UK should get preferential access to the single market but will not have to accept freedom of movement to get it.

This is from the BBC website.

[HauptmannUK]

Its a fact that the GBP hit a 31-year low against the USD. No point in arguing about that.

Where it goes in the future depends on the kind of deal that is agreed between the UK and EU. If, for example, the UK were to leave the EEA and Scotland were to break away then I would think the GBP would drop through the floor and many expats in Thailand would need to.pack their bags. If, on the other hand, we become an Associate Member of the EU then the GBP could rise strongly.

[manfredtillmann]

In the eu or out does not make it sure to have a full pension. I am dutch, and recently it was announced that there was a plan on the table to use the pensionfunds from our country to help the old folks in the poorer countries from the eu. I assume that goes for every rich eu country.

I am about 10 yrs away from my pension. I do not have any confidence in getting any of it. If it comes i welcome it, but i have little hope. Maybe that a nexit can improve the situation...

Good luck to you all

off topic but perhaps a bit of (negativ) consolation:

i have worked and have paid (and still do) taxes - a lot of taxes - in australia for 35 years and i will not get a single cent of pension because the oz government considers me 'too rich' (i am not!!!).

they call it 'means testing'!

just like that. an entitlement that every australian citizen has - just taken away without compensation.

so, please, don't believe that you are fortified from this sort of stuff, no matter where you live.

laws can be made in a day...

[champers]

Of course the experts may be wrong but they are more likely to be right than not.

In what parallel universe do you live where professional financial prognosticators are more likely to be right than not?

For that matter, whenever is there a consensus between such experts? Look at predictions made in December last year for the FTSE at the end of 2016. Big variation:

Richard Buxton (OMGI) 7104+

Nick Peters (Fidelity) 6,100 to 6,500

Killik & Co research team 6,750

Helal Miah (The Share Centre) 6,480

Mark Dampier (Hargreaves Lansdown) Not a clue

Source: https://www.trustnet.com/News/640428/where-will-the-ftse-end-up-in-2016

Henry Kissinger once said (I paraphrase) "If I ask 20 economists their outlook for the next 5 years, I will get 20 different opinions. One of them will be accurate, but I don't know which one".

[sandyf]

Yes.

Many will not now qualify for 12 month extensions.

That's got to really suck. I wonder if there are countries in SE Asia other than Cambodia that are an option?

No. They should go home and help make Britain great again.

That would increase net migration, something the leave campaign promised to stop.

[Naam]

The only thing that can be said with certain is that we are in for change and volatility, there will be ups as well as downs, until article 50 is triggered this will continue more so.

What must be more of a concern is for Europe, and the whole EU is running a deficit. If it were a company it would be near bankruptcy as the books are not balanced and the deficit grows larger.

Without the UK paying into the coffers, the rest of Europe will have to cough up the 12.5% that UK currently contribute, and 18% of the EU GDP. Where on earth are they going to get that?

Greece will eventually default on at least part if not all of the money lent. Resentment to immigration continues in multiple right wing parties, Holland, Sweden Austria and Denmark (all positive contributors) are fast approaching a point where the political right increase their voice and whilst not imminent may call for a referendum on staying in the EU.

It was mentioned about European pensions, and that legislation is on the cards and the poorer nations will be financed by the richer ones. This will have a huge effect on the Dutch ( as well as British, had they remained,) because of their structure of pensions.

The whole experiment is too costly.

Without the UK paying into the coffers, the rest of Europe will have to cough up the 12.5% that UK currently contribute, and 18% of the EU GDP. Where on earth are they going to get that?

"they" don't have to get anything from anywhere. the proposed EU budget is € 148 billions, UK's net contribution is £ 8 billion = € 9.6 billion = ~6.5% of the budget.

what will be done is a budget reduction of 6.5%... et voilà!

same same and not different what a British reiree does when his disposable pounds buy less currency of the country he lives.

worthwhile to mention is that there is no such thing like a "BRexit" effective end of last week. and there might not be a BRexit (as planned and envisioned by the "BRexiteers") at all.

[GuestHouse]

Getting back to the OP's question. (wrt UK state pensions).

Clearly the exchange rate is an issue, but there are other concerns you need to consider.

Prior to the referendum there was growing consensus that expat British pensioners ought to be treated fairly and receive annual pension increase, that the injustice of frozen pensions should be removed. I believe it fair to say that even disregarding the inward looking turn the UK has taken, there will be neither an appetite or time on the parliamentary calendar to address fair pensions - I think we can now say goodbye to any chance of pension injustice being addressed anytime soon, if ever.

The second issue only really effects pensioners if they are actually receiving annual increases, there is growing disquiet amongst people who are not pensioners regarding the triple lock that provides for very generous annual pension increases. I strongly suspect this is now under threat and I would not be at all surprised if the triple lock is abandoned.

You seem to imply that there was a chance that if we had stayed in the EU. We may/ would have seen the end of the unfair frozen pensions.unfortunately you could not have been further from the truth.

There has also been some talk of pensions held by pensioners in the more prosperous parts of the EU going to support those pensioners in the rest of the EU. If that does happen,then that is one more bonus for leaving the undemocratic EU.

The growing consensus for fair pensions is a matter of record (yoll find it discussed on the TVF UK pensions thread).

The lack of time to even consider the matter post Brexit is a matter of logic - parliament is going to be rather busy.

You offer no evidence of your claimed EU plans or indeed that the EU is undemocratic.

[Henryford]

Don't worry we will never leave the EUSSR. Once Boris gets to be PM he will do a 'deal' and say we don't need to leave after all. You didn't really think they would allow the people to vote did you?

[Ricardo]

Don't worry we will never leave the EUSSR. Once Boris gets to be PM he will do a 'deal' and say we don't need to leave after all. You didn't really think they would allow the people to vote did you?

"Once Boris gets to be PM"

He's just announced that he won't be standing !

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36674275

Amazing Thailand Britain !

[dabhand]

Interesting that, during yesterday's PMQ session, Cameron responded to a question about EU pensioners and the impact on pensions following any UK exit from the EU.

His response, unsurprisingly, was to play a dead bat and simply state that this would be one of many issues that will be looked at during the decoupling process.

However, it might give those who are chasing for the unfreezing for pensioners in other locations the possibility to push for all pensioners to be treated the same by threatening to derail this part of any deal unless this inequality is changed. There are estimated to be over one million Brit pensioners in the EU, add that to the 500k in currently frozen countries and that is getting towards a decent critical mass. One can but hope.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-freedom-of-movement-europe-british-expats-what-happens-david-cameron-pmqs-a7109226.html

[rickudon]

One group who will really suffer are those who will retire in the near future and have a money purchase pension scheme. Not only do they loose out from the fall of the value in the pound, but also as usually invested in stocks and shares, the final value is vulnerable to to falls in the market. Finally as bitter icing to this cake, annuity rates have fallen since last week - and these loses are locked in once the pension/annuity starts. So a triple whammy for soon to be pensioners.

my feeling on the future GBP and economy? The pound and stock market will recover slightly, but towards the end of the year when the realisation hits that there is no plan, both will slowly fall until some positive news on the economy comes up (but that will probably not happen until the 2020's).