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Speaking on the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg, Jones said ministers were closely examining the economic consequences of the war and developing contingency plans.
“Our best estimate is that economic impacts could last eight months or more after the conflict is resolved,” he said. “That means people could see higher energy bills, rising food prices and more expensive flights.”
Supply disruptions and global impact
Energy production and transportation in parts of the Middle East have slowed significantly during the conflict, creating supply chain problems and pushing up prices worldwide.
Earlier this month, UK officials drafted a worst-case scenario in which prolonged disruption could lead to food shortages by the summer. Items such as chicken and pork were identified as particularly vulnerable if supply chains are affected for an extended period.
The government has also attempted to reassure the public that there is currently no need to change daily behaviour. Ministers have urged motorists to continue buying petrol as normal and travellers to avoid altering flight plans because of fears about jet fuel shortages.
Jones suggested that price increases were more likely than widespread shortages on supermarket shelves.
Government planning and emergency measures
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is expected to chair another meeting of a Cabinet committee on Tuesday focused on preparing for potential shortages and supply chain disruptions linked to the war.
A group of ministers is also meeting twice a week to monitor stock levels of key goods and assess risks to supply chains. Jones is leading the government’s contingency planning meetings.
He said the UK had chosen not to become directly involved in the conflict, aside from taking defensive steps to protect national interests.
“This is not our war,” he said previously, adding that the government was working to prepare for any economic or security consequences.
The International Monetary Fund warned last week that the energy shock caused by the conflict could hit the UK harder than other advanced economies. The organisation lowered its forecast for UK economic growth this year to 0.8%, down from a previous estimate of 1.3%.
Food production and CO₂ supply concerns
Officials have also considered potential disruptions to the supply of carbon dioxide, which is widely used in food processing and preservation.
The concern stems from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route, which could affect supplies of natural gas needed for fertiliser production — a process that produces CO₂ as a by-product.
To help maintain supplies, the government has provided funding to restart the Ensus bioethanol plant, which generates carbon dioxide during production. The company says it expects to continue supplying CO₂ for the foreseeable future.
Jones said ministers had even discussed the possibility of pubs running short of draught beer during the summer’s Men’s Football World Cup if CO₂ supplies were disrupted, though he stressed efforts were underway to prevent that scenario.
Political pressure and global tensions
Supermarkets say they are working with the government to plan for possible supply challenges, while the National Farmers’ Union has warned that prices for crops such as cucumbers and tomatoes could rise within weeks, with other agricultural costs potentially increasing over several months.
The Liberal Democrats have called for food security to be made a central government priority. The party has proposed measures including a cut in fuel duty and lower public transport costs to help households cope with rising prices.
Meanwhile, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved. Iran’s chief negotiator said reopening the route would be impossible while the United States maintains a naval blockade of Iranian ports.
Negotiators from Iran travelled to Islamabad on Saturday for talks aimed at ending the conflict.
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Adapted by ASEAN Now. Source 27 April 2026
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