USD$ Gaining Against Thai Baht

[Banana7]

Over the last month, USD has gained about 0.5 baht, breaking 33 baht to USD today. What's causing the better exchange rate? Lack of tourists, lack of buyers of expensive Thai made/produced products, low interest rates, or something else?

 

[scorecard]

Good question and looking forward to some insight from the experts.

[moana]

USD is gaining against all currencies, not just THB, so this has nothing to do with Thailand. Mostly thanks to rate hiking by the Fed and positive US data.

[fullcave]

6 hours ago, Banana7 said:

What's causing the better exchange rate? 

Money printing for one thing. Hard not to notice all the new bills floating around. Fed rate hikes for another. 

[Banana7]

Just found this article on Thaivisa, posted a few hours after my question was asked.

 

[Sheryl]

Any predictions on further rises and for how long? I am going to have to transfer USD in sometime between now and April to meet visa requirement, would like to time it for favorable exchange rate.

[Franko666]

6 hours ago, scorecard said:

Good question and looking forward to some insight from the experts.

Yes, I foresee 20 pages of financial babble from the Thai Visa experts, I just can't wait - again!

[Emdog]

It's all relative. I remember article a few years ago chastising some currency because government wasn't profligate enough, so were at competitive disadvantage. Their money was worth too much... go figure

[simoh1490]

21 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

Any predictions on further rises and for how long? I am going to have to transfer USD in sometime between now and April to meet visa requirement, would like to time it for favorable exchange rate.

2

33 is a good rate by recent historical standards, I wouldn't gamble on it getting too much better even if Thai exports and tourism are at risk, the BOT has plenty of cash to support THB at a level it likes.

[KiChakayan]

39 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

Any predictions on further rises and for how long? I am going to have to transfer USD in sometime between now and April to meet visa requirement, would like to time it for favorable exchange rate.

You've given up on the "income letter from the embassy" ?

[dotpoom]

Just thinking...after it's analysed to death ..What difference will it make...even if someone comes up with a conclusive answer?

[KKr]

@Franco66: here is some insight for you:
I see a lot of correlation, not much of a big divergence.

Edited October 29, 2018 by KKr

[BoganInParasite]

The Aussie AUD seems to be trying to get off it's deathbed against the baht as well. Hasn't made it far yet.

[alex8912]

1 hour ago, Sheryl said:

Any predictions on further rises and for how long? I am going to have to transfer USD in sometime between now and April to meet visa requirement, would like to time it for favorable exchange rate.

A little surprised coming from you. 

But really it goes up and down all the time. Just use your currency app and look at today about 33.20, then click on last 3 months for high it was 33.38 then click on one year high 33.45. So has it really gotten weaker  against the dollar?? So I would say do it today. No one can predict this and everyone on TVF OR O TVF  ( lol) who has been around awhile should know this. Who can yah REALLY trust? 

 

Edited October 29, 2018 by alex8912

[watcharacters]

1 hour ago, Sheryl said:

Any predictions on further rises and for how long? I am going to have to transfer USD in sometime between now and April to meet visa requirement, would like to time it for favorable exchange rate.

 

If you can figure out a method for such an exercise please share it with fellow TVF members before you write your financial advice book.    

 

I recall thinking the same a few years back  as the USD headed for 36 THB/USD  which it reached for just over the blink of an eye.

 

Good luck..

[Laza 45]

...I saw an article today ...that I can't find again.. saying that Thailand's growth and exports aren't preforming quite as well as expected.. bringing the Bt down a bit..  Rising interest rates in the US are drawing $$ back to the US.. and the turmoil of the share market correction are all affecting exchange rates.. Unless Trump starts a war it should settle down .. 

[Suradit69]

3 hours ago, fullcave said:

Money printing for one thing. Hard not to notice all the new bills floating around.

They're replacing old notes with new. They're not just dumping new notes on the economy together with the old ones. Starting with the 20's and 100's you're seeing more and more with the portrait of the current king and fewer of the older notes.

 

Every country has a constant program of replacing old, damaged, worn notes with new ones. The lower denominations tend to wear out more quickly because they get the most use. The only reason you even notice the constant turnover is when the design of the replacement notes is different from those being replaced.

[simoh1490]

3 hours ago, fullcave said:

Money printing for one thing. Hard not to notice all the new bills floating around. Fed rate hikes for another. 

"new bills floating around" that's money printing is it! 

[Suradit69]

8 hours ago, moana said:

USD is gaining against all currencies, not just THB, so this has nothing to do with Thailand.

Exactly. The US Dollar Index, DXY, frequently called the "Dixie," has been rising and in this region it has been most notable because of the sinking Chinese Yuan. The rising dollar has hurt many international companies based in the US because their revenues converted to dollars have been hit and either the prices they charge for goods or services  has to rise or their operational margins are negatively impacted or maybe both.

 

Many years ago the Thai baht traded in sympathy with the Japanese Yen, but that's definitely moved to a connection with the Chinese currency. 

 

 

 

Edited October 29, 2018 by Suradit69

[Pinot]

3 hours ago, Sheryl said:

Any predictions on further rises and for how long? I am going to have to transfer USD in sometime between now and April to meet visa requirement, would like to time it for favorable exchange rate.

There is absolutely no way to tell what will be the story in a month. There is an entire financial industry that is based around what the future price of a country's exchange will be (forex). This is the best price on the USD in a while. It may or may not be a good time to bring in money. 

 

My experience is I've never been able to time the market so I just ignore it. It is what it is. 

 

Predictions by anyone on TV are absolutely useless. 

[allanos]

3 hours ago, fullcave said:

Money printing for one thing. Hard not to notice all the new bills floating around. Fed rate hikes for another. 

Too much money printing is actually a weakening factor, not a strengthening factor.  It is most likely due to the Fed hiking rates, with the prospect of more rate hikes on the horizon (December?)

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Given the rates of recent years, I look at anything 33 or above as being good times.

[Pinot]

1 minute ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Given the rates of recent years, I look at anything 33 or above as being good times.

That's a good general statement.

 

[yogavnture]

5 hours ago, Sheryl said:

Any predictions on further rises and for how long? I am going to have to transfer USD in sometime between now and April to meet visa requirement, would like to time it for favorable exchange rate.

i often wonder if in novemeber the rate is better and it slowly gets worse towards end of tourist season in may....   but if you look at historical chart my theory isn't true

 

[AtoZ]

Trump effect

 

Expect more the next 6 years 

[AtoZ]

3 hours ago, BoganInParasite said:

The Aussie AUD seems to be trying to get off it's deathbed against the baht as well. Hasn't made it far yet.

well the US has Trump and AU has bunch of puss***

[sawadeeken]

Not that it is a tool to help guess the future but I do watch the dollar vs Baht a lot and I have seen some pattern of the dollar getting stronger as the 'Stock Market' declines........ Just my personal observation and I don't have a clue as to there being some connection.........

[Banana7]

6 hours ago, Sheryl said:

Any predictions on further rises and for how long? I am going to have to transfer USD in sometime between now and April to meet visa requirement, would like to time it for favorable exchange rate.

This week USD should be 33.2-33.3 baht. Then BOT Sept. report will influence movement from this rate - rate could drop, maintain or improve. Personally, I'll be moving at 33.2 this week for about 1/3 of my next year needs.

 

 

[fullcave]

2 hours ago, allanos said:

Too much money printing is actually a weakening factor, not a strengthening factor.  It is most likely due to the Fed hiking rates, with the prospect of more rate hikes on the horizon (December?)

No you missed my point completely. I meant printing money as in the Thai BAHT! Hard not to notice. So yes we are in full agreement! 

[fullcave]

3 hours ago, Suradit69 said:

They're replacing old notes with new. They're not just dumping new notes on the economy together with the old ones. Starting with the 20's and 100's you're seeing more and more with the portrait of the current king and fewer of the older notes.

Got a source?

Edited October 29, 2018 by fullcave