.png.3b3332cc2256ad0edbc2fe9404feeef0.png.8488ab72b8bb2e508209bfe3211b6e08.png)
Hua Hin: Hundreds mobilized as massive fire threatens housing estates
-
Recently Browsing 0 members
- No registered users viewing this page.
-
Topics
-
-
Popular Contributors
-
Latest posts...
-
65
Farage’s Reform UK Surges as Tory Voters Defect in Droves
Reading the same room and closer to the action than you. Next election; ~340 Tory Seats, ~206 Labour, Reform, 45, nearly all Northern seats, Libs; 20ish, SNP; 20 ish, 19 for rest. Tory government with a majority of 15, not including the NI Unionist parties. In the run up, one Reform MP defects to the Tories but loses his seat. Reform mostly win at the expense of the Labour Party. Farage doesn't run for Clacton, as he can't stand the town, and instead switches to Bradford and wins there after a narrow contest with George Galloway. By 2029, Trump will no longer be President, either an ex-President or dead. People will be sick of Farage name droppeing an 80 year old, who spent most of the previous years making an enemy of the UK. There will be a new raft of US politicians, Republican or Democrat, who will treat Farage with contempt. He will have spent the last few years trying to justify to the British people why Trump spent years screwing over the UK, first through tariffs, then when Trump abandons Estonia after Russian tanks briefly seize the capital. Farage is simply too much of a reminder of the MAGA madness. The British people don't like bullies, and we always back the underdog. We generally don't like God Botherers, Holy Joes, whether real or pretend. Whether true or not, Trump will become the laughing stock in the UK, thanks to how the Sun, Mirror, Mail report on him, as they draw the UK-First wagons. We will be reminded why we call Americans the "Septics". Like a Septic Tank, full of it. While there is a close relationship between the two countries, there has always been a certain tension. The next election will be based on the economy and taxes. Labour will tax us, the economy won't be doing well, because of basic ideological differences. The Tories will have spent the previous 5 years, with a fully stocked front bench, picking apart Labour policy after policy in a way that Reform with 4-5 MPs cannot talk about. Reform is still basically a 1 person party. They won't get the airtime, except for 1 issue only, When the reason people don't have money in their pocket and can't afford their mortgage, its easier to vocalise that its Labour's taxation policies and incompetance than to pretend all its down to immigrants. The Tories will point to a past, pre-2019, and running the economy well. While still a Brexit party, they will do a more convincing job of steering that middle line between the US and Europe. The country is noticeably more hostile to the US, particularly after President Trump dismisses the Royal Marines as ineffectual and backs the Argentinian claims to the Falklands as he continues to pursue Greenland, but it is now talking about Jamaica as well, The British people feel a closer affection for the Commonwealth, and don't like how kith and kin in Canada are being bullied by the German from New York. Reform, being the third largest party in parliament, get to ask more questions, which raises their profile, but its a highwater market for the protest party. With more voices, the lack of Party Discipline becomes apparent and no one actually knews what they stand for, as the party tries to beat the electorial reform issue again, in a wierd alliance withn the new PETA-Green Party, which no one understands. The incoming Conservative government is largely unrecognisable from 2024, but people are sick of Farage's gurning, but can't recall the name of a single other Reform MP. When quizzed, the public are convinced that Anne Widdecombe must be a Reform MP as she's on telly a lot. They don't like her screechy voice. Liz Truss loses her deposit while standing as the Real Reform UK Party (slogan; MEGA) candidate in Boston, a sad end for not a particularly rosey political career. Simple analysis of 2019 Tory voters and how they voted in 2024 25% of Tories in 2019 didn't bother voting in 2024. They will vote tory again with the right leader, and that leader ain't Farage 50% of the 2019 Tories who voted in 2024 stuck with the Tories and Rishi Sunak. If Farage couldn't win Tories who voted for an Indian in 2024, he have no chance in 2029. Get the right leader, and they will come back over Even without the right leader, they will. So thats 37% of the 2019 voters in the bag. 25% voted Farage. Some might come back. 20% voted Labour or Liberal Dems. They will also come back, and no way will they vote Farage. In 2024, Reform came second in 98 seats., 60 of those Labour, all in the North of England. They won't grow their share in the natural Tory seats. They will pick up Labour seats. 40 gains for them will be a very good night for them. With greater exposure in parliament, their candidates will be found wanting as the 2029-34 parliament becomes very concerned about the economic recovery. The 83 election shows Labour floating voters are more likely to switch to Tory and vice versa, rather than a disruptor party. Hence, Reform will be like a blue version of the SDP, but with less nous. -
36
-
20
Attempted Scam
They said they were from CW but I'm sure they were just scamsters. But in any case even hypothetically I'm sure CW wouldn't get involved in checking sim card etc.I also wouldn't dream of phoning Immigration for even a valid reason. Also I don't need visa. -
132
80-20 Dems
AN does and provides a listing of each week's, month's and annual total post count for the top contenders. -
36
-
14
Late to renew retirement visa
This can only be done if the applicant is handicapped or disabled and I'm sure some evidence would be required. (See page 2 of the TM7)
-
-
Popular in The Pub
-
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now