Thai July headline inflation rate seen quickening to 1% - Reuters poll

 

FILE PHOTO: A mother and her daughter shop for bananas at a market in Bangkok, Thailand, March 31, 2016. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's annual headline inflation rate in July likely quickened from the previous month, returning to the central bank's target range, a Reuters poll showed.

 

The median forecast of 12 economists was for the headline consumer price index (CPI) to increase 1% in July from a year earlier after 0.87% rise in June.

 

The Bank of Thailand (BOT) has forecast 2019 headline inflation of 1%, against its 1%-4% target range.

 

The core inflation rate, which strips out energy and fresh food prices, was seen at 0.50% in July, according to the poll. It stood at 0.48% in June.

 

The poll showed that Thailand's manufacturing production index in June probably contracted 3.15% from a year earlier, after dropping 3.99% in May.

 

The Thai central bank has left its policy interest rate <THCBIR=ECI> unchanged at 1.75% since tightening in December for the first time since 2011.

 

It will next review monetary policy on Aug. 7. Most economists expect no policy change for the rest of 2019.

 

(Reporting by Satawasin Staporncharnchai,; Editing by Orathai Sriring and Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-07-26

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Another signal that this government will ignore at their peril

In the real World everyday goods ,like food are going up a lot more

than 1 %, maybe seasonal but prices are up,interest rates,wages,

strong Bhat stay the same !

regards worgeordie

25 minutes ago, worgeordie said:

In the real World everyday goods ,like food are going up a lot more

than 1 %, maybe seasonal but prices are up,interest rates,wages,

strong Bhat stay the same !

regards worgeordie

And things tend to go up in 5 and 10 baht!

Still can't understand why imports haven't reduced in price.

IF and it's a big if, the baht starts to weaken then they will be the first thing to increase

1% CPI increase is peanuts to the 1% richest Thais who owned 58% of the country's wealth but for the poor who lives on minimum wage it is a difference between having a meal or not. 

The increase in sugar tax should give inflation a bit of a kick along as manufacturers + wholesalers + retailers pass it on, plus a bit of flexible "rounding" upwards. 

57 minutes ago, worgeordie said:

In the real World everyday goods ,like food are going up a lot more

than 1 %, maybe seasonal but prices are up,interest rates,wages,

strong Bhat stay the same !

regards worgeordie

They're afraid to say what you suggest is the real situation as that would push the Baht up further!If currency speculators see the Baht go up they'll invest even more in the Baht pushing it up further still until the vicious cycle creates panic and the bubble bursts.

23 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

1% CPI increase is peanuts to the 1% richest Thais who owned 58% of the country's wealth but for the poor who lives on minimum wage it is a difference between having a meal or not. 

False.

The minimum wage went up approx. 7% last year to 325 b a day.

A 1% increase in a bowl of soup is not going to make them starve.

And the same 40 b street food I saw 3 years ago is still 40 b.

28 minutes ago, bkk6060 said:

False.

The minimum wage went up approx. 7% last year to 325 b a day.

A 1% increase in a bowl of soup is not going to make them starve.

And the same 40 b street food I saw 3 years ago is still 40 b.

CPI don't include wage and a bowl of soup in their measurement. Maybe you can tell me how you calculate the 1% CPI increase to 1% increase in a bowl of soup. 

14 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

They're afraid to say what you suggest is the real situation as that would push the Baht up further!If currency speculators see the Baht go up they'll invest even more in the Baht pushing it up further still until the vicious cycle creates panic and the bubble bursts.

Being a currency trader for many year I should warn that not all  bubbles burst of cause when it does happen it grabs everyone attention

But half the time bubbles just deflate slowly over many years. The smart money will stay long and hedge the downside risk. 

Bank of Thailand still intoxicated with foreign hot money from their thrice weekly bond sales. Meanwhile, Rome continues to burn...

16 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

False.

The minimum wage went up approx. 7% last year to 325 b a day.

A 1% increase in a bowl of soup is not going to make them starve.

And the same 40 b street food I saw 3 years ago is still 40 b.

325 baht a day in Bangkok and Rayong big factories...maybe

but not in our provinces .

It's still between 250 and 300 baht a day and they must comme with their meal and water .

and at the same time, the boui-boui of my village has just raised the dish from 35 to 40 baht and 40 to 45 baht if you want an egg on the plate; we are very far from 1% increase.

 

Few know how they calculate these figures. But, my wallet tells me real inflation here is closer to 15%. Based on my staple foods, which seem to go up every few months. I see some products jumping 20% in one increase. If I did that with my business I would be finished. Same with restaurants, movie theaters, popcorn, and nearly anything else I buy. About the only thing that is not going up right now, seems to be hotels and airfares, as travel is down, and they are struggling to fill seats and rooms. Hooray! At least there is one ray of light, for those of us trying to live comfortably in these days of inflation.

 

In the US, it is far worse. The inflation there is rampant. Yet, they cling to the nonsensical numbers. Every time i say something like this, some guy replies and tells me the basis of their calculations. Look, if they do not use real products, services and commodities, that effect us on a daily basis, it is proof that they are simply trying to look good, and these numbers have nothing to do with reality, or our lives, and therefore are total BS.

Time to cut Central Bank rates again until they hit ZIRP.  I mean really.  Who cares about The Little People when the elites are rolling in the money!

6 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Few know how they calculate these figures. But, my wallet tells me real inflation here is closer to 15%. Based on my staple foods, which seem to go up every few months. I see some products jumping 20% in one increase. If I did that with my business I would be finished. Same with restaurants, movie theaters, popcorn, and nearly anything else I buy. About the only thing that is not going up right now, seems to be hotels and airfares, as travel is down, and they are struggling to fill seats and rooms. Hooray! At least there is one ray of light, for those of us trying to live comfortably in these days of inflation.

 

In the US, it is far worse. The inflation there is rampant. Yet, they cling to the nonsensical numbers. Every time i say something like this, some guy replies and tells me the basis of their calculations. Look, if they do not use real products, services and commodities, that effect us on a daily basis, it is proof that they are simply trying to look good, and these numbers have nothing to do with reality, or our lives, and therefore are total BS.

There are Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics.^***

 

^{*** Inflation model used in the 1980s vs the new and improved government model that show virtually no inflation.  Great for an indebted government; sucks for those on a fixed income.  Also, the newer metrics are essentially compounded lies.}

 

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

 

 

8 hours ago, Assurancetourix said:

325 baht a day in Bangkok and Rayong big factories...maybe

but not in our provinces .

It's still between 250 and 300 baht a day and they must comme with their meal and water .

and at the same time, the boui-boui of my village has just raised the dish from 35 to 40 baht and 40 to 45 baht if you want an egg on the plate; we are very far from 1% increase.

 

Freeze the wages of workers, raise prices, use QE and corporate-welfare to buy-back insider stocks, and then buy Ferraris/Beamers/Mercs, luxury homes, and Bling-bling.  Contribute to your favorite politician's corruption, err, campaign funds to keep the ball rolling in favor of the rich and connected.

 

"Let the peasants eat rice-cake." <elite laughter; clinking champagne glasses>

 

On 7/26/2019 at 4:55 PM, bkk6060 said:

A 1% increase in a bowl of soup is not going to make them starve.

No, it won't.  It's the compounded monthly 1% increases where you have 12% annual interest that completely screws normal people. 
However, we hear the rich use statements like "A 1% increase in a bowl of soup is not going to make them starve." with impunity.  It shows an absolutely callous disregard for most of the rest of humanity. 
"Let them eat rich-cakes!" <ha ha ha ha ha> 

Then another Mao Zedong arises and you wonder why you end up kneeling in a rice field? 

This is like being run from the same folks that run the TAT tourist figures, where they get these figures from remains a mystery certainly not recognizable in the real world where real people live, thing don't go up by 50 satang or 1 baht do they, well fuel might but that's about it and when you query any increase you are usually greeted with the traditional response  "prices up!" which is supposed to make it alright and end the conversation.

The answer to the strong baht is a story that has baffled the incumbents here for a long time but they are working on how to reverse it just as soon as they have had their holidays and bought all the foreign goods abroad. There are really 2 possible answers to what to do about the strong baht:- 1. Don't know.2. Nothing.

Can anyone think of anything that went up 1%? that is nonsense, foodstuffs go up 5-10%, haircuts just went up 20% locally and the bus fares recently went up by about 15%. Nobody believes this rubbish they come out with.