EU's Juncker tells Britain: no-deal Brexit will hurt you the most

[Huayrat]

4 hours ago, Bluespunk said:

Not going to happen johnson 

You will be surprised then.. Aslong as Johnson stays away the EU will fold and backdown.. Merkel will see to that because they are in a dire position and on the brink of recession and will be in a worse state than the UK and Add Ireland to that too.

[Handsome Gardener]

2 hours ago, evadgib said:

Today is Sunday and the month is August which might perhaps explain how this latest post Brexit pro remain guesswork has surfaced in the absence of anything worth reporting.

How is it guesswork ? 

 

The UK GDP UNDER $3trillion - the EU GDP OVER $17trillion - who is going to be able to absolve any pain the most ? The EU don't have to lift a finger to ADD to their basket of trade deals - the UK will have to renegotiate nearly everything and are currently on a world tour to beg for additional deals from a lousy negotiating position which could take decades to secure and to top that you have Bojo Johnson leading the charge. So lets have another go - who do you think its going to hurt the most ? 

 

Its elementary economics - scale matters - and the EU is SIX times larger than the UK.

 

My dog could work out who it will hurt the most yet brexiteers can't ! The futures looking rosy ????

[bristolboy]

16 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

A person that has to go out with a comment like that in the press, is also a very insecure person that need to have something to see and read at a later stage to convince himself that is the truth.

Even if it happens to be the truth.

[Chelseafan]

3 minutes ago, tebee said:

No and no.  This is the wonder of the single market(+CU) the most advanced FTA in the world.

 

...and why some of us think it is madness to leave it . 

So you're saying NO lorries get checked at Dover/Calais and No Lorries get checked at Irish ports ?

 

[Bluespunk]

58 minutes ago, Jip99 said:

 

 

If you think Junker is "right".... there is no hope for any of us.

Coming from a supporter of johnson, that is a hilariously ironic position to take. 

Edited August 11, 2019 by Bluespunk

[tebee]

1 minute ago, Huayrat said:

You will be surprised then.. Aslong as Johnson stays away the EU will fold and backdown.. Merkel will see to that because they are in a dire position and on the brink of recession and will be in a worse state than the UK and Add Ireland to that too.

Why exactly should the EU fold when a hard brexit will drive thousands of jobs and billions of tax revenue their way ? Yes, there will be some short time pain but longer term the companies that used to be in the UK need somewhere to go.

[CNXexpat]

14 minutes ago, Victornoir said:

20% tax on German cars for 66 million people = 20% tax on Japanese cars assembled in UK for 500 million.

 

Volkswagen, Renault, Fiat and others dreamed of it, Boris will do it.

But the Japanese car makers are planning to leave the UK or left already. So the Brits have to pay 20% (or less or more) customs for all cars, except Rolls Royce, Bentley and McLaren which only a few people can afford. So the customs will effect 99,99% of the Brits. 

[hugocnx]

4 hours ago, Bluespunk said:

Well said 

And Juncker isn't a liar, right?

[gearbox]

39 minutes ago, robertson468 said:

So, so many doomsayers on here.  Do you not know that USA has said it will offer trade at least twice as much as the EU, if not more, there are also a variety of other very large markets to be explored such as those European Countries not in the EU Pact, the African Continent (probably the future largest expanding market), China, Asia, Russia et al.  Already, many UK Ambassadors have been exploring these markets, from which under the EU Rules, we were excluded.  

 

Lol... you are in Thailand aren't you? Have a look around your house and in your surroundings to see if you can find a single bolt marked "Made in UK".

 

Let me show how a FTA with an Asian nation works. Australia signed a FTA with Thailand in 2005. Last year we have more than 8 bil AUD deficit with them. As soon as the deal was signed, all multinationals figured out that it would be cheaper to make cars in Thailand and import them with zero tariffs instead of making them in Australia. In the course of around 10 years most car manufacturing moved to Thailand, with hundreds of thousands of jobs lost In Australia. And our major export? Crude petroleum...how that happens I don't know as we can't produce enough for ourselves.

 

[puipuitom]

6 hours ago, AGareth2 said:

Ireland will be hit the worst

Northern ireland will be hit the most. Thanks DUP. We'll remember that next General Election. 

[Bluespunk]

5 minutes ago, Huayrat said:

You will be surprised then.. Aslong as Johnson stays away the EU will fold and backdown.. Merkel will see to that because they are in a dire position and on the brink of recession and will be in a worse state than the UK and Add Ireland to that too.

Thanks for the humour, pouring down with rain here in Hua Hin, I needed a laugh. 

[Bluespunk]

Just now, hugocnx said:

And Juncker isn't a liar, right?

He might be, but johnson certainly is. 

[nauseus]

8 minutes ago, tebee said:

No and no.  This is the wonder of the single market(+CU) the most advanced FTA in the world.

 

...and why some of us think it is madness to leave it . 

It is not an FTA.

[Matzzon]

5 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Even if it happens to be the truth.

Yes! he´s nutty as tick-picking monkey.

[puipuitom]

4 hours ago, Chelseafan said:

I freely admit, I only have a basic understanding of the Irish problem so can someone explain to me what the bigger issue is? As I see it the EU are making this into a bigger issue than it really is. Surely it's something that technology can regulate ?

Only one slicht minor miniscule problem: nobody even has an idea how...

[sandyf]

1 hour ago, Jip99 said:

 

Grey imports are a thing of the past.... the UK market was pushed down - to nearer to European prices - years ago.

Do you think it was coincidence that grey imports declined with the introduction of the single market?

[tebee]

1 minute ago, Chelseafan said:

So you're saying NO lorries get checked at Dover/Calais and No Lorries get checked at Irish ports ?

 

Other than those carrying dutiable items like spirits and cigarettes no, they can pass straight through with minimal paperwork. They may need to be checked coming to the UK for illegal immigrants but not for customs purposes.

 

It's effectively as if Irland, France and the UK  where all part of the same country. 

[bristolboy]

4 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

Yes! he´s nutty as tick-picking monkey.

Whatever the state of mind may be, he spoke an obvious truth. 

[nauseus]

8 minutes ago, Bluespunk said:

Thanks for the humour, pouring down with rain here in Hua Hin, I needed a laugh. 

Well have a laugh at this then:

 

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/german-hit-a-brick-wall-in-q2-pantheon-macroeconomics-says-2019-7-1028338986#

[puipuitom]

3 hours ago, gearbox said:

Do you think the people who drive Mercs and Beemers will switch to Ford after Brexit?

For those, who get paid in British pounds, Nov 2015 worth € 1,44, one year ago € 1,175 and no € 1,075.. these German cars increased a 10% in price. For Britain assembled cars, with about 50% of the components EU origin, also some price increase. Probably the British will have no choice: cannot afford something else as Brittain made anymore.

[tebee]

8 minutes ago, nauseus said:

It is not an FTA.

It's an FTA with added gizmos, hence my comment about it being the most advanced FTA in the world.

 

In what ways do you consider it not to be an FTA?

[puipuitom]

5 hours ago, smedly said:

there are about 6 primary EU countries that account for 80% of UK imports from the EU, Germany is by far the biggest with about 40% of that 

Of all the many trade agreements the EU has around the world 8 countries account for 90% of the trade 

Import to the UK.. let's think: Latvia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Albania, Malta, Cyprus ?

Or the countries, closest to teh EU: Spain, France, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, Denmark ?

These 8 countries… let's think… Belize, El Salvador, Suriname, Zimbabwe, The Gambia, Burundi, Buthan, Vanuatu.. ?

Or just take the 8 wth the largest GDP? as for every exporter ?

[bristolboy]

5 minutes ago, tebee said:

Other than those carrying dutiable items like spirits and cigarettes no, they can pass straight through with minimal paperwork. They may need to be checked coming to the UK for illegal immigrants but not for customs purposes.

 

It's effectively as if Irland, France and the UK  where all part of the same country. 

Brexiters mostly don't seem to get it that tariffs aren't going to be the biggest problem for the UK. It's the fact that once the UK is out of the free trade area, it's going to hurt manufacturing in the UK. The reason a lot of foreign companies set up manufacturing facilities in the UK was that

1) labor is less protected in the UK than in the industrially developed nations of the continent

2)that because the UK was in the EU that allowed for an unobstructed supply chain. 

And not just manufacturing. I note that Brexiters seem to focus almost exclusively on goods rather than services. But services are a much bigger part of the UK economy and the UK enjoys a big surplus there.  And in the event of a hard Brexit will be much more restricted in the EU. Screws on the City will be tightened in the event of a hard brexit. 

[puipuitom]

3 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Yes you are correct:

’All the many trade agreements the EU (and hence UK) has around the world’.

The UK is on the verge of dumping them all.

Some Great Nations are left: Mongolia, North Korea, Iran, Pakistan, Afhanistan, Yemen, South Sudan, Lybia, BeloRuss, Venezuela,....

[vogie]

23 minutes ago, tebee said:

 

You see, once again, it's proved that leavers don't like facts....

????

If you are referring to the big red Brexit bus, the "lie" that was thrown out of court by the judge.

If that is the lie then it has been suggested that it is nothing compared to David Camerons lie about the Brexit result would be final or even Jeremy Corbyn accusation that he had to sit on the trains carriage floor because there are no seats on the train, need I go on?

[batata]

3 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Yes you are correct:

 

’All the many trade agreements the EU (and hence UK) has around the world’.

 

The UK is on the verge of dumping them all.

shooting themselves on the foot

[puipuitom]

3 hours ago, smedly said:

I think that depends on a couple of things

- if the EU tries to make things difficult (punish the UK for leaving)

- if there is no sensible trade deal reached

long term the UK has many options

The UK does NOT punish the UK for leaving. They get the same treatment as every other WTO-country. Exactly the same. Import duty, Schengen visa, international driver licence + insurances, etc etc etc.

And.. "sensable deal"? ? Which as the British only came with.. no., no. no. no. no. no and.. no.

 

Options? Which ? ?

[hugocnx]

1 hour ago, CNXexpat said:

Only to remind everybody who don´t want a backstop: no trade deal with the USA in the case of a hard border.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/31/brexit-mess-with-good-friday-and-well-block-uk-trade-deal-us-politicians-warn

I don't understand these links to the media here and there. As if the media are the almighty knowing it all.

[puipuitom]

3 hours ago, smedly said:

you are correct - the are solutions but the EU and Ireland refuse to discuss

 

it is shameful they are using terrorism in Ireland to re-enforce their bargaining position

 

the UK and Ireland have had a FTA and cooperation that goes back long before the EU

See the Irish history: one big robbery by the British for a millenium

[sandyf]

1 hour ago, Chelseafan said:

I see you mentioned "up to 10 Years" - which is the time it took Canada and the EU to agree on a trade deal.

 

It won't take anywhere near this. Its much easier when you have one country negotiating with the UK than 28 countries negotiating with Canada.

Trade deals do not come easy, irrespective of how many countries are involved, like everything else it is all in the small print. Watch out for the "investment courts" when the UK EU FTA gets under way, the grass will be greener in the single market.

 

Brussels has won the blessing of Europe’s top court for its trade deal with Canada, opening the door for EU negotiators to use it as a model without fear of legal reprisals. The ruling lifts a threat that had hung over the EU’s attempts to negotiate market access with other major economies, validating a system of “investment courts” that Brussels has argued will protect foreign investors without undermining the bloc’s social and environmental standards.

https://www.ft.com/content/25754d28-6b21-11e9-80c7-60ee53e6681d

 

FRENCH politician Claire O'Petit on Thursday said she had received death threats from farmers angry over a controversial EU-Canada trade deal recently approved by parliament and championed by President Emmanuel Macron.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1163873/emmanuel-macron-france-news-farmers-EU-canada-trade-deal