Samui tourist numbers first half 2019

[gearbox]

<link and quote from the BKK post removed >

 

Which one is true? Logically if the rooms are 20% less occupied there would be less people coming? Am I missing something?

Edited August 21, 2019 by PoorSucker
BKK post

[dcsw53]

You believe official statistics in Thailand ???  OMG wake up and smell the coffee, they make them up to suit the argument !!

[FarFlungFalang]

12 minutes ago, gearbox said:

Which one is true? Logically if the rooms are 20% less occupied there would be less people coming? Am I missing something?

Marbles?Apparently I've lost mine!5555.If there are more Indians and Chinese visitors there might be a lot of room sharing which could possibly account for this anomaly. 

[Tropicalevo]

" Which one is true? Logically if the rooms are 20% less occupied there would be less people coming? Am I missing something? "

 

The numbers do not include visitors staying in villas.

There is a move for tourist groups to book private villas instead of hotel rooms. TAT cannot count these tourists.

Hotel bookings are down. Villa bookings are up.

[FarFlungFalang]

2 hours ago, Tropicalevo said:

TAT cannot count these tourists.

Can they get these numbers from the dreaded TM30's?

[Tropicalevo]

53 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Can they get these numbers from the dreaded TM30's?

No. TM30's are for all foreigners. Retirees, employees, business owners etc

These should not be included in the tourist numbers.

[gearbox]

7 hours ago, Tropicalevo said:

" Which one is true? Logically if the rooms are 20% less occupied there would be less people coming? Am I missing something? "

 

The numbers do not include visitors staying in villas.

There is a move for tourist groups to book private villas instead of hotel rooms. TAT cannot count these tourists.

Hotel bookings are down. Villa bookings are up.

How do you know the villa bookings are up? Any source?

[khunPer]

The official number of incoming foreign tourists to Thailand in first half of 2019 is up by almost 1½ percent...

 

Quote

He (Tourism and Sports Minister Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn) said 19.76 million foreign tourists visited Thailand during the first half (January to June) this year, which was an increase of 1.48 per cent over the previous year. They generated revenue of Bt1.02 trillion for the country.

Source:

 

Registered hotel rooms at Samui might not tell the full story about the island's tourist occupation. The demand from visiting guests are different today, than for example 10 years and more ago, including an increasing demand for staying more private, or family friendly, in a villa.

 

Without exact details, it's partly guessing; just like looking at numbers of passengers passing Samui Airport don't include boat and ferry arrivals, which could be both up or down, and all total numbers are inclusive of both locals and expats, which should not be counted as visiting tourist.

Without doubt, some of the guests are changing, compared to previous times, and costs like exchange rates for Thai baht might also affect the number of visitors from certain countries. Furthermore Asian tourists spend less days in Thailand compared to European tourists, so even increased numbers, can be same or less booked room-nites.

[PoorSucker]

Sorry guys. 

Had to remove link and quote from the BKK post. 

Their rules not ours. 

Bangkok post does not allow Thaivisa to link to them nor quote them. 

[Tropicalevo]

On 8/20/2019 at 3:35 PM, gearbox said:

How do you know the villa bookings are up? Any source?

Yes. Me. I manage villas. I have had to hire part time staff in July/August as they have been the busiest months ever.

September is looking more quiet, but I said that about August at the same time of the month in July. August is more busy than July already.

[Tropicalevo]

"<link and quote from the BKK post removed >

 

Which one is true? Logically if the rooms are 20% less occupied there would be less people coming? Am I missing something?"

 

The original quote said that hotel room bookings were down. The proposed solution from the Tourist people is more flights into Samui as existing flights were all full.

 

So if all flights are full, then how can there be less tourists?

 

They are not staying in hotels. Villas maybe?

[Gulfsailor]

1 hour ago, Tropicalevo said:

"<link and quote from the BKK post removed >

 

Which one is true? Logically if the rooms are 20% less occupied there would be less people coming? Am I missing something?"

 

The original quote said that hotel room bookings were down. The proposed solution from the Tourist people is more flights into Samui as existing flights were all full.

 

So if all flights are full, then how can there be less tourists?

 

They are not staying in hotels. Villas maybe?

If there is an increases in absolute tourist numbers, but a larger increase in available beds or decrease in nights spent, then the occupancy per room goes down.

All three are happening I think; Some large hotels opened recently, but also many more villas, leading to more available beds. But also demographics are changing to shorter stay visitors. 

[gearbox]

1 hour ago, Tropicalevo said:

"<link and quote from the BKK post removed >

 

Which one is true? Logically if the rooms are 20% less occupied there would be less people coming? Am I missing something?"

 

The original quote said that hotel room bookings were down. The proposed solution from the Tourist people is more flights into Samui as existing flights were all full.

 

So if all flights are full, then how can there be less tourists?

 

They are not staying in hotels. Villas maybe?

The Bangkok post article was saying that the flights from China are actually reduced. I was trying to get statistics of the Samui airport arrivals,  but the last available online are from 2015. Any pointer where to get them?

 

Looks like it is not easy to get any reliable numbers here in Thailand. Are there any real estate statistics for Samui, e.g properties sold per year,  prices etc? In Australia these are easily available for any post code.

[khunPer]

2 hours ago, gearbox said:

The Bangkok post article was saying that the flights from China are actually reduced. I was trying to get statistics of the Samui airport arrivals,  but the last available online are from 2015. Any pointer where to get them?

 

Looks like it is not easy to get any reliable numbers here in Thailand. Are there any real estate statistics for Samui, e.g properties sold per year,  prices etc? In Australia these are easily available for any post code.

Yes, it's difficult to obtain reliable statistic data, and probably like difficult to collect them.

 

2016 stat for USM, Samui Airport:

Quote

1,245,757

Passenger arrivals at Koh Samui Airport (2016 year total, or roughly the population of Calgary). Note that these figures don’t include any tourists arriving on Koh Samui by ferry.

Source: Koh Samui by the Numbers: Tourism Statistics

 

The latest tourist number I've seen is for Surat Thani province 2018 – i.e. including mainland and the two other islands Phangan and Tao – it was 2.7 million tourists.

 

Real Estate: The Land Department office in Lipa Noi used to write on a big white-board on the wall the number of transfers, and appraised values, for each month, and sum for a calendar year. A visit to the land office might unveil some numbers, but appraised values might not be the same as real price paid (i.e. it was, and perhaps still is, common that the appraised value is lower than the actual sales prices, and therefore preferred by both seller and buyer to be used for calculation of tax and transfer fee, the difference could be 10-fold).

????

[Airbagwill]

On 8/20/2019 at 8:17 AM, dcsw53 said:

You believe official statistics in Thailand ???  OMG wake up and smell the coffee, they make them up to suit the argument !!

It's not that simple - you need to look at WHO is collecting the figures - is it one or more sources and then look at who is analysing them......of course any statistic is just open to interpretation and Thailand is notoriously bad at compiling them and there are self-interested  and conflicting interests involved too.. But it is just naive to dismiss stats without looking them closely or jumping to conclusions that the headlines are accurate - so often th media is actually incapable of drawing a rational conclusion.

What inferences are you trying to draw? Do you think the numbers represent a long term trend? Are they GOOD for the island or like many are they just a racist attack on Chinese tourists?

Edited August 27, 2019 by Airbagwill

[Airbagwill]

On 8/20/2019 at 8:29 AM, Tropicalevo said:

" Which one is true? Logically if the rooms are 20% less occupied there would be less people coming? Am I missing something? "

 

The numbers do not include visitors staying in villas.

There is a move for tourist groups to book private villas instead of hotel rooms. TAT cannot count these tourists.

Hotel bookings are down. Villa bookings are up.

It also depends on the amount of new accommodation available. Overbuilding is surely a problem?

[baansgr]

On 8/20/2019 at 11:25 AM, Tropicalevo said:

No. TM30's are for all foreigners. Retirees, employees, business owners etc

These should not be included in the tourist numbers.

But they include the 1.7 milliion visiting laotions in the tourist numbers

[khunPer]

Seems like TM30 and exchange rates don't scare tourists away – even more Chinese tourists – is it only Samui that is down?????

 

[PoorSucker]

Quote

Bangkok Airways has just posted a net loss of 190 million baht for the first half of 2019.

 

Quote

 

The Koh Samui monopoly has provided one of Bangkok Airways’s few reliable positives in the past. But a drop in Chinese passengers to Koh Samui this year has contributed to nearly 5% drop in total passengers to the island.

Revenue from flights into the Gulf island contribute nearly 50% of Bangkok Airways overall income. But a drop in Chinese passengers has forced the airline to cut flights – Samui to Guangzhou has now been scrapped – and cut the frequency of flights from Samui to Chongqing.

 

 

https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/tourism/bangkok-airways-posts-losses-samui-routes-performing-badly

[Airbagwill]

2 minutes ago, PoorSucker said:

 

 

https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/tourism/bangkok-airways-posts-losses-samui-routes-performing-badly

the expression Som Nam Na springs to mind

[Ron jeremy]

Bangkok airways sucking the hind tit, one poster says he is doing well in his villas, another says he has never EVER seen it so bad, he never had a single booking for 2 weeks?

 

[gearbox]

23 minutes ago, Ron jeremy said:

Bangkok airways sucking the hind tit, one poster says he is doing well in his villas, another says he has never EVER seen it so bad, he never had a single booking for 2 weeks?

 

I flew only once with Bangkok air 3 years ago from Phuket to Samui. The weirdest flight I've been. The cabin crew was outnumbering the passengers 2:1

[gearbox]

26 minutes ago, Ron jeremy said:

Bangkok airways sucking the hind tit, one poster says he is doing well in his villas, another says he has never EVER seen it so bad, he never had a single booking for 2 weeks?

 

You can't rely on anecdotal evidence for the numbers. Good businesses may attract more people, even if the overall numbers may be down. The arrivals numbers at the airports are better, but looks like it is hard to get exact numbers for the Samui airport.

[Airbagwill]

BKK air run a monopoly on flights and landings on Samui. In this instance they may get hoist on their own petard.

Previously it was considered that the high price of direct flights to Samui kept the numbers of budget tourists ow whilst maintaining the 5 & 4 star customers. However with a dip in numbers their high pricing may have an adverse effect - reducing all numbers to the island as people get more price conscious.

It has already been shown that in an one market BKK air are unable to be competitive and run at a loss.

The number of 4 & 5 star rooms on Samui has always exceeded the number of guests so any dip is not desirable and yet building and development continues as if there is no tomorrow.

What is needed is a reliable set of figures covering a long period and a well thought out policy for the future - this would control unregulated development and lay pans for expansion where needed and an infrastructure to cope.

[Airbagwill]

interesting article on Samui at the mercy of an airline.....

 

https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/tourism/koh-samui-is-looking-to-the-skies-an-island-tethered-to-an-airline

 

 

[Tropicalevo]

12 hours ago, gearbox said:

You can't rely on anecdotal evidence for the numbers. Good businesses may attract more people, even if the overall numbers may be down. The arrivals numbers at the airports are better, but looks like it is hard to get exact numbers for the Samui airport.

Almost impossible to get accurate numbers for visitors to Samui.

 

We have had 201 'movements' this month. 98 check ins and 103 check outs. Of the 98 I am only aware of 43 groups arriving via Samui airport. The majority of the rest arrived by ferry. From Suratthani, NST and the other islands. Some visitors were 'already on the island' and so I have no idea how they arrived. I could check their visas (from the TM 30 reporting) but that would be a mindless task. The Don Muang/Suratthani route is very popular. Certainly much cheaper. Especially for the larger groups of visitors.

 

However, the numbers for September/October/November are currently well down (as usual). December is looking stronger.

 

The THB to CNY is certainly going to have a big impact for the Chinese. Less than 4 baht to one yuan. 36 THB to GBP and 33 to the EUR. Beer in a bar here is now as expensive (if not more) than a beer back in the UK.

 

Final word - the popular villas are those with a sea view and a pool. Garden villas with a pool are much quieter.

 

 

[Airbagwill]

there are various hotelier associations on Samui (e.g THA and ATTA) that must have access to  or provide stats. As everyone who comes to the island buys a ticket it must be possible to compile some pretty accurate numbers.

Edited August 30, 2019 by Airbagwill

[BroxScott]

I am currently in Samui and have never seen it so quiet, even at Chaweng, having visited the island on more than 40 occasions.  Whilst the destruction of Samui in the form of construction (why did they build that shopping arcade in Chaweng) has unquestionably contributed the pricing structure (bars/restaurants have become very expensive) and strong baht (I can remember getting 93 baht to the £) is frankly a killer.  Raising the rates for foreign bar owners is also the slow death for the island.  I for example frequented Legends in Chaweng, the best pub on the island, for many years but the year on year (sometimes month on month) but the increase in rates and utter greed killed it.  Other destinations are emerging Thailand will become a white elephant.

[Birdman]

On 10/4/2019 at 9:39 PM, BroxScott said:

I am currently in Samui and have never seen it so quiet, even at Chaweng, having visited the island on more than 40 occasions.  Whilst the destruction of Samui in the form of construction (why did they build that shopping arcade in Chaweng) has unquestionably contributed the pricing structure (bars/restaurants have become very expensive) and strong baht (I can remember getting 93 baht to the £) is frankly a killer.  Raising the rates for foreign bar owners is also the slow death for the island.  I for example frequented Legends in Chaweng, the best pub on the island, for many years but the year on year (sometimes month on month) but the increase in rates and utter greed killed it.  Other destinations are emerging Thailand will become a white elephant.

have read that so many times, living on Samui since 30 years. First time here 85. Constructions on Chaweng? yes, one high rise next to the other. 93 then? bank account opening year. Bars? nothing more boring than bars, go Pattaya or Ibiza. Which other destinations better? gonna move there, if it is so. Have been everywhere between Nepal - Philippines - Australia. Ok, Kerala is nice too. But so far, nothing beats South Thailand 

[huberthammer]

On 8/29/2019 at 8:04 PM, PoorSucker said:

 

 

https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/tourism/bangkok-airways-posts-losses-samui-routes-performing-badly

On a recent trip to Singapore my outbound flight was cancelled a few weeks in advance and on the way back we were delayed by quite a bit due to a required plane change. Interesting enough was a smaller plane than normal and even then it was less than 25% occupied. Pretty sure both changes were related to lack of passengers on these flights.

 

Have not seen such low number of passengers in the previous 4 low seasons (saying this, 2 of the first 4 years they had very aggressive promotion prices which we have not seen since).