Bailing Out / Jumpin Ship

[DaRoadrunner]

For me the problem is lack of stability. The Thai Govt / Immigration are unpredictable. New rules and changes are not well thought through. In particular the health insurance, which I suspect will eventually apply to all of us. Some will not be able to qualify due to pre-existing conditions, or from being just too old. What is an 80 year old on a retirement visa supposed to do?

 

Even those who do qualify will be forced to buy poor quality insurance at high prices from Thai insurers. The way medical costs are rising, (due to Thai hospital greed and double charging), the insurance will not offer sufficient cover anyway.

 

What is the point of giving someone a retirement visa if it does not afford him surety in the knowledge he can live out his retirement in peace? Add to this zero consideration for those who are married to Thais and have kids.

 

It does not help that every IO / office has a different take on the regs.

 

Then there is inflation. Cost of beer n pu$$y are getting ridiculous. (A serious consideration as this is what got me into this mess!)

 

Factor in the exchange rate.

 

It all gets right up Da Roadrunner’s beak…. (Especially the pollution).

 

Jumping ship to another country is not always a good solution though… Frying pan to fire?

 

So where does this leave us?

 

[Fairynuff]

On 12/21/2019 at 4:30 PM, ezzra said:

which by the way are fair and straight forward

Not true...the regulations are neither fair nor straightforward. There are rules as defined by the law but those rules are arbitrarily enacted according to the whim of every individual IO.

If there was any consistency, if the rules were the same everywhere and applied fairly there would be a lot fewer people leaving. If there was any logic to the rules, if there were sensible and valid reasons for them, that too would be ok.

Economics is another point. Inflation is rampant, the strong baht, AND weaker western currencies all add to the pain and to rip people apart for not planning well enough is just plain nasty. Just because you or I might have enough put away doesn’t give us the right to gloat and belittle those less fortunate. Any of could find ourselves in the same situation, you just never know.

It's true that Thailand had lost a lot of its shine, for me too up to a point but for now I’m staying. I have a great life, I’m not struggling and I want to stay but I understand and empathise with those who feel they’re almost being forced out.

[digibum]

11 hours ago, Sheryl said:

800k that you are allowed to fully spend down is not the same as 800k which cannot be spent at all for 3 months and then only half of it spent thereafter.

 

Income equivalent to 65k a month with no requirements as to how much is in home country vs. Thailand is not the same as 65k must be brought into a Thai bank every month. 

 

Documentation requirements are in fact very difficult to meet as numerous threads attest. As is the insistance on transfers every single month with no allowance made for actual dates on which pensions and other retirement income streams are paid out.

 

There are a lot of people who readily meet the required monthly  income threshold still having problems meeting the rigid documentation  rules.

 

And as for the lump sum method, that issue should be apparent. Basic math. 

 

 

Fully agree with everything you said, however, aren't many of these things Thai immigration's attempt at closing loopholes?  Not saying that they did it correctly or efficiently, just saying that the people abusing the system caused a backlash. 

 

How many threads on TV can you find talking about just parking the 800K for the visa and then withdrawing it? 

 

How many threads on TV talk about ways to game the 65K a month requirement? 

 

I'm not one of the people gloating, but, at the same time, all the people that lived here for decades on tourist visas caused a crackdown on tourist visas.  Same is happening here.  Way too many people have openly taken advantage of loopholes which has resulted in Thai immigration over correcting in the other direction.

 

Yes, that has hurt a lot of folks unfairly, but it's not like everyone was in compliance and Thai immigration decided to make things harder for no reason.  They're like any big organization.  It's like when you work for a large corporation (or government) and suddenly they start questioning every expense report because some idiots were trying to expense strip clubs.  Large organization over-compensate.  That's just how it works. 

[digibum]

33 minutes ago, Fairynuff said:

Not true...the regulations are neither fair nor straightforward. There are rules as defined by the law but those rules are arbitrarily enacted according to the whim of every individual IO.

If there was any consistency, if the rules were the same everywhere and applied fairly there would be a lot fewer people leaving. If there was any logic to the rules, if there were sensible and valid reasons for them, that too would be ok.

 

I kind of get where you're going with this but let me offer a different perspective. 

 

If the regulations are defined by law, technically, it shouldn't matter how they enacted/enforced unless someone is going in the other direction and requiring 1 million baht in the bank instead of 800K, right? 

 

If the law says X and you decide you can move to Thailand but not meet X requirements because the laws are not enforced strictly, well, you're rolling the dice. 

 

I've seen so many threads over the last 10 or 15 years I've been reading TV about people living here for decades on tourist visas and when immigration makes even slightly more difficult people are like, "OMG, they're changing the rules on us."  No, you're residing in Thailand.  You're not a tourist.  You were breaking the rules and now they're enforcing them in a stricter manner. 

 

If you're referring to the new health insurance requirements, well, I agree that it was poorly rolled out and unfair to many.  However, it was a change to the visa requirements and, despite being poorly implemented, and unfair to some, not entirely surprising that Thailand would eventually require people in their golden years to have a means of paying their medical bills.  

 

Similarly, the changes to income verification, also hit a lot of people unfairly.  However, it should have seemed a little odd that you could just raise your right hand and declare you had a certain amount of income coming in.  I would have always assumed that loophole was going to get closed eventually.  Granted, immigration left most people with no good options to verify their income even if they legitimately had it, but they were obviously reacting to the rampant abuse. 

[ericthai]

On 12/21/2019 at 8:43 AM, Destiny1990 said:

I had young friends doing ED visas but it became to strict and so they left.

I had friends doing border runs they all left. 

Majority of long term stayers that I know including myself have left during these last years . Their number one reason that made them relocating is newer more strict visa rules,TM30’s and secondly nearby other countries becoming more attractive. In 5 last years only rules been created to discourage long term staying hence the exodus !

Seems it only got harder on you're friends because they were trying to live in Thailand on the wrongs visas. Unfortunately, Thailand is not as laid back as it used to be. 

[digibum]

1 hour ago, DaRoadrunner said:

For me the problem is lack of stability. The Thai Govt / Immigration are unpredictable. New rules and changes are not well thought through.

And when you moved here the Thai government was predictable and always thoroughly vetted every new rule?  ????

 

Let's face it, many people moved to Thailand for those exact reasons but, at that time, they were unpredictable and not well thought through in their favor. 

 

It sort of reminds me of the people that complain about how corrupt the Thai police are and then two seconds later brag about handing a cop a few hundred baht to get out of a ticket versus how, back home, they would have points on their records and pay increased insurance premiums for the next 3 - 5 years. 

 

I fully agree that the health insurance requirements are a mess.  But, at the same time, how many expats were living here with no health insurance and no ability to pay for any major medical bill? 

 

Quote

What is the point of giving someone a retirement visa if it does not afford him surety in the knowledge he can live out his retirement in peace? Add to this zero consideration for those who are married to Thais and have kids.

 

As far as I know, a retirement visa has always been for 1 year.  I don't remember every seeing a guarantee that you will be able to live out your retirement in peace.

 

I'm not trying to be pedantic but unless you obtain PR or become a Thai citizen, one always has to assume that the laws are going to change.  The immigration laws have changed even in many of our own countries. 

[digibum]

4 hours ago, simon43 said:

I have no plans at all to retire, at least not until I'm 100.....

I have no plans to die.  ????

[Jingthing]

13 hours ago, yogi100 said:

Be real, Few people are ever gonna have the equivalent of $250k in assets and a pension or other income when they retire.

Many more than a few do but in my view that's not nearly enough to have a decent retirement in the USA unless it's a low cost area, the home is mortgage free,  and the pension is significantly higher than average. But that should still work in Thailand and a number of other "retirement visa" countries but as some have mentioned there are other potential deal breaker issues such as health insurance thing if it migrates to Os. 

 

4 percent "safe" withdrawal rate on 250K USD is 10,000 USD. Big whoop!

[digibum]

5 hours ago, wwest5829 said:

What I am stating is  that I only have a government Social Security payment of $1293.00 USD per month that the US Embassy can verify from a government source. I am stating to any interested that I do not have any other “pension”. My funds are invested in the stock market and I am free to withdraw funds on my own decision amount. The US government does not have the right to verify how much I have available in total nor what I personally decide to withdraw. It is a different system than many European countries have in having only one government pension source. I am quite willing to state my retirement situation but please understand dealing with US citizen retirement would necessitate accessing thousands of records from various sources, which is forbidden under privacy rights laws.

 

I think you're confusing some things here. 

 

The US government has a right to verify how much you decide to withdraw (from dividends and capital gains).  It's called income.  The IRS is very much vested in verifying that amount. 

 

Unless you are drawing down the principle, your statement is is factually incorrect.  And if you are drawing down from your principle, that's not income.  

 

Even if you are drawing from something like a ROTH IRA or 401K (i.e. post-tax contributions), the IRS would be aware of that because there are required minimum distributions and they want to verify that you are taking the amounts coming out of tax-advantaged accounts.

 

What I think you mean to say is that the US embassy has no way of verifying that since they are not the IRS. 

 

It would be nice if the Thai government accepted some sort of IRS verification.  I can go to the IRS website and get copies of my income records but the embassy has no way to cross-reference them. 

 

They only need to verify what you reported as income on your 1040 form, so your statement about needing to verify thousands of sources is incorrect as well. 

 

And, having lived and worked in the EU, there is not only one source of pension.  Many EU citizens have public and private pension schemes too.  You can get a government pension and, if your company provides one, a private pension. 

 

So, so far, almost nothing you've stated is factually accurate. 

 

 

[digibum]

21 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Many more than a few do but in my view that's not nearly enough to have a decent retirement in the USA unless it's a low cost area, the home is mortgage free,  and the pension is significantly higher than average. But that should still work in Thailand and a number of other "retirement visa" countries but as some have mentioned there are other potential deal breaker issues such as health insurance thing if it migrates to Os. 

 

4 percent "safe" withdrawal rate on 250K USD is 10,000 USD. Big whoop!

 

You are dead-on.  If $250K seems like a large sum to you, you might need to reconsider retirement. 

 

I say that because living in a low cost of living country overseas has a lot of hidden costs.  US citizens cannot receive Medicare or Medicade in Thailand.  Something that would have provided you very low cost health insurance when your medical bills are, statistically speaking, expected to be the highest. 

 

And, actually, that $250K is not really $250K if you're exercising any sort of responsible financial planning.  First off, one would have a certain amount set aside as an emergency fund, sitting in cash, so you're not even investing the full $250K. 

 

So, you're not even drawing down $10K a year at a 4% SWR (savings withdrawal rate). 

 

I think a lot of people end up near retirement suddenly wake up and say, "Damn, based on my social security (or pension) and what I have saved up, I can live in some <deleted>hole here in my own country or move to Thailand (or some other low cost of living country) and think they can live like a king." 

 

And it all seems great if everything remains constant.  As long as the minimum financial requirements don't change, and the cost of living remains the same, and the stock market keeps roaring, and I never get sick or injured, and the baht vs my local currency stays the same, and I never meet someone and want to have a serious relationship, and, and, and, . . . I'll be fine. 

 

I used to caution people on Reddit about becoming digital nomads or retiring at 35, unless they built into their plans the fact that as we grow older, health related expenses would increase, exchange rates could wipe out 20% - 30% of their purchasing power, etc. 

 

Nobody in their 20's or 30's likes hearing that dose of reality either. 

 

Literally, there were people who would say things like, "I work out 5x a week and eat a plant-based diet so I don't think I need to worry about health insurance." 

 

I guess Go Fund Me is the Millennial health insurance plan.   

[yogi100]

1 hour ago, Jingthing said:

Many more than a few do but in my view that's not nearly enough to have a decent retirement in the USA unless it's a low cost area, the home is mortgage free,  and the pension is significantly higher than average. But that should still work in Thailand and a number of other "retirement visa" countries but as some have mentioned there are other potential deal breaker issues such as health insurance thing if it migrates to Os. 

 

4 percent "safe" withdrawal rate on 250K USD is 10,000 USD. Big whoop!

For Christ's sake not everything centres around the USA.

 

Forget your USA and its financial structure. American residents are a small minority in the the LOS. What affects us falangs in Thailand are the domestic Thai financial and immigration regulations. 

[daveAustin]

On 12/21/2019 at 11:48 AM, toofarnorth said:

So why read Thai Visa ?  I left England and have made my home here , my 400,000 B is in the bank . I don't read any , not one English newspaper , I don't need to know how cold it is , how much more a ticket costs to get into the city . Why are so many complaining on here today ?

Why shouldn't he. Nothing wrong with keeping tabs is there.

 

Sorry, but I don't get the consternation and gloating toward those that have moved on. This topic should be of particular interest to folks, like yourself, that could be one step away from being squeezed out. While I can understand you have set up shop there and given the middle finger to Blighty (always worth keeping tabs, old bean, never know when you need rescuing by the NHS), I would be extremely wary of keeping my eggs in one basket when an erratic, trigger-happy junta is running things. 

[daveAustin]

On 12/21/2019 at 12:03 PM, madmen said:

Lets cut the BS gents. The 500 exodus threads all started after the embassies shat on their own citizens and BOOM the thousands that built their future based on a house cards based upon a scribble signature on a BS  affidavit saw it collapse and are now very very upset and angry .

 

No sympathy from me or any of my expat friends. Good riddance and thanks for making Immigration suspicious of even the good guys

 

You reap what you sow 

ALL the exodus threads? Most of the issues seem to be based on enforcement of arbitrary rules n regs, burgeoning costs, talk of obligatory health insurance, etc. Sure, many have enjoyed a tenuous stay through lax policing, and why not. As previous, I would be very careful of my position in Muang Thai today as there is every chance you'll all be booted in time... with those who haven't made a plan B in for a right awakening. 

[daveAustin]

On 12/21/2019 at 10:45 AM, Thailand said:

Seriously, we are among those looking to liquidate all Thai assets so they should it be necessary we can opt out. Where is obviously a major concern.

We also have friends going the same route.Like it here but need to be more flexible should it be necessary to opt out

You too, Thailand? With your moniker, you should be the last to leave. 

All the best 

[saengd]

Perhaps the one good thing that will come out of all these threats to leave is that more people will start to think seriously about a workable plan B. We bought a small flat in the UK a few years ago and that's my plan B, we use it each year for holidays and rent it out the rest of the time. I wouldn't really want to live there year round, especially not during the winter months but if push came to shove I suppose I could. One scenario for us, if Thailand started to get to restrictive, is to spend six months in each location which is close to what we do presently. It seems as though present visa rules would allow that without too much hassle or red tape and may actually be desirable in many ways. Having that option available to me makes me feel less paranoid about the things that are happening around me and more inclined to go with the flow. I've never thought expats were targeted out of malice, we're simply on the receiving end of lots of people who don't function very well in their respective jobs plus a lot of knee jerk and poorly thought through actions.

[Lacessit]

11 hours ago, Puchaiyank said:

As an advocate for truth and clarity, I have a responsibility to the naive to bring a touch of reality to the fantasy that Thailand is the best place on earth...

 

 

Do you have any idea how pompous that sounds?

[holy cow cm]

26 minutes ago, saengd said:

I've never thought expats were targeted out of malice, we're simply on the receiving end of lots of people who don't function very well in their respective jobs plus a lot of knee jerk and poorly thought through actions.

Well we are all entitled to our opinions, but word is and actions are we are being hit out at. The restrictions we have over us like having PR's almost impossible to get along with citizenship or the categories of what we can do or not are atrocious. TM30 check-in and 90 day reporting and the new insurance regulation which derives out of false data for expats is just more then more then more. OI have been here a long long time but the writing is clearly on the wall.

[BritManToo]

5 hours ago, digibum said:

You are dead-on.  If $250K seems like a large sum to you, you might need to reconsider retirement.

I'm 64 and spend $15k/year.

$250k would last me 17 years, I'd be OK with that.

I don't know anyone in Thailand who survived age 70.

 

My emergency planning is 1) Death, 2) Return to the UK or France.

[saengd]

41 minutes ago, holy cow cm said:

Well we are all entitled to our opinions, but word is and actions are we are being hit out at. The restrictions we have over us like having PR's almost impossible to get along with citizenship or the categories of what we can do or not are atrocious. TM30 check-in and 90 day reporting and the new insurance regulation which derives out of false data for expats is just more then more then more. OI have been here a long long time but the writing is clearly on the wall.

If you believe those things, extrapolate and tell us what the intention is and where it will take us in say five or seven years. In your mind are they trying to get rid of all expats or just Western expats and if so why? On the one hand some posters tell us that government cannot afford to lose all expats because of the loss it would cause to the economy. On the other hand some say government is trying to get us all out....which is it?

[Sheryl]

13 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

 

I don't know anyone in Thailand who survived age 70.

 

 

May say something about the lifestyle of your circle of friends and acquaintances.

 

I know many.

 

And this forum is full of threads from expats in their 70's and 80"s. 

 

Indeed one of the main idsues with the new Health Insurance requirement is that people over 75 can't get policies.

[BritManToo]

2 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

Indeed one of the main idsues with the new Health Insurance requirement is that people over 75 can't get policies.

The main issue I have with the insurance policy is I don't want to waste my money.

75 isn't an age I ever expect to reach, at 64 I've already beat my parents (who both died of cancer in their early 60s).

[saengd]

1 minute ago, BritManToo said:

The main issue I have with the insurance policy is I don't want to waste my money.

75 isn't an age I ever expect to reach, at 64 I've already beat my parents (who both died of cancer in their early 60s).

It would be ironic if you live to be 75 and then have to leave Thailand because you can't get health insurance and your visa application was denied!

[Sheryl]

23 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

...

 

75 isn't an age I ever expect to reach, at 64 I've already beat my parents (who both died of cancer in their early 60s).

Don't count on it.

 

Lots of people live to an age they did not expect to reach.

 

And most people nowadays live much longer than their patents did. Lifespans are increasing.

 

My mother's patents died before 60. She is now 90 and going strong.

 

And the "I'll kill myself when I reach age X" bunch generally change their minds or keep upping the age.

 

Beware of plans that assume how long you'll live. Lots of elderly people end up ill served by them.

[bkk6060]

9 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

Don't count on it.

 

Lots of people libe to an age they did not expect to reach.

 

And most people nowadays live much linger than their patents did. Lifespans ate increasing.

 

My mother's patents died before 60. She is niw 90 and going strobg.

 

And the "I'll kill myself when I reach age X" bunch generally change their minds or keep upping the age.

 

Beware of plans that assume how long you'll live. Lots of elderly people end up ill served by them.

Plant based diet and lots of sex.

Live forever!

[digibum]

44 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

I'm 64 and spend $15k/year.

$250k would last me 17 years, I'd be OK with that.

I don't know anyone in Thailand who survived age 70.

 

My emergency planning is 1) Death, 2) Return to the UK or France.

 

The average age at death of Americans in the US is 78.7 years (I can't be bothered to look up the rate for every country).  If you retire at 60, that means, on average, you to have enough expenses to cover you for 18.7 years.  Most retirement planners recommend planning for 30 years because running out of money at 78 would suck some serious balls. 

 

IMHO, if you are going to retire overseas, you need to plan like you're going to retire in your home country, except you're doing it in Thailand where the cost of living is lower. 

 

The overage is your safety net.  The overage helps cover currency fluctuations.  The overage helps cover the fact that developing countries often have GDP growth well in excess of your own country which means inflation runs in excess of your own country.  The excess helps cover the cost of relocating back to your home country if you get kicked out, the currency strengthens too much, inflation eats away your purchasing power, you suddenly become nostalgic for crappy weather, etc. 

[digibum]

40 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

The main issue I have with the insurance policy is I don't want to waste my money.

75 isn't an age I ever expect to reach, at 64 I've already beat my parents (who both died of cancer in their early 60s).

 

Yes, but the thing I don't think you're fully appreciating is that Thailand doesn't want to gamble with you on this issue.  How outraged would you be if your visa included them doing physical and a history check of your relatives so they could estimate how quickly you would die.  Bend over if cough if you want your 1 year extension.  LOL

 

Like Sheryl said, there are a lot of people that go on well past 70 and into their 80's living here. 

[digibum]

24 minutes ago, bkk6060 said:

Plant based diet and lots of sex.

Live forever!

Live even longer if you switch to a plant based sex regimen.  ????

[holy cow cm]

46 minutes ago, saengd said:

If you believe those things, extrapolate and tell us what the intention is and where it will take us in say five or seven years. In your mind are they trying to get rid of all expats or just Western expats and if so why? On the one hand some posters tell us that government cannot afford to lose all expats because of the loss it would cause to the economy. On the other hand some say government is trying to get us all out....which is it?

Not a belief. I have Thai friend who has an immigration old university friend and the anti foreigner sentiment is high and festering. Xenophobia is marching. Think of it this way: Start clear cutting on the lower end and then make the middle to high end jump as high as they can and the ones who can't jump high enough will be forced out. Don't believe one bit they care about any Western expats. Just care about not getting a bad rap on the world stage. They need the tourism dollars but do not want the multiple comers and goers and comers so are opting to see how to bring in new fresh tourism income. Ofcourse they do not want all of us out, but they who they see as repeat offenders or not enough money to their liking or maybe acclimated to being Thai enough no. Only want a select few who can stay under their scheme of criteria. In 5-7 years who knows. Initiatives can backfire and then reversed, but I don't know how long we all will be able to hang on. For the insurance, I do see it going to Non O so I will purchase it sometime this year or before I am 60 and never use it.. This really all started to turn when Thaksin was in office. They are just following it through. So, honestly they want to see S E Asian faces probably more than the Westerners. And they are the you know who already. They are wealthy to begin with. 

[sfokevin]

54 minutes ago, saengd said:

It would be ironic if you live to be 75 and then have to leave Thailand because you can't get health insurance and your visa application was denied!

Forced to move back to the UK and got hit by a bus!...

[Langsuan Man]

It's the insurance stupid 

 

This topic and many others here at TV all started when the mandatory insurance requirement suddenly hit.  Yes it hit the O-A Visa holders first, and was especially egregious since many were told that the O-A Visa was the best "long stay" visa available if you satisfied the requirements.  What is especially galling to the rest of the expat community is the fact that they were also told that the 800 or 400 k THB was in the bank was for your "emergency" hospital coverage, obviously a lie since for renewal you will have to have both, the money in the bank and the worthless Thai Health Insurance if you listened to the government an obtained an O-A long stay vise because you were going to be a long stayer !!!

 

At what point do you say enough is enough ? 

 

I pay $250 a month for my share of my retirement Blue Cross / Blue Shield, another $250 a month for Medicare part B (high income penalty) and the Thai government wants another $200 or so for a "Thai" policy that is totally useless in my home country.  All this just so I can spend 6 months in Thailand

 

I started downsizing my assets here in Thailand primarily for estate reasons but the silver lining is that I am now just a suitcase away from leaving for good