If all expats left: Little impact on Thai economy

[Roy Baht]

The question was asked, what would happen to the Thai economy if all the expats who live here were to leave, many seem to think that would cause the country serious financial pain or maybe even collapse…..here’s a look at the math:

 

Let’s say there are Western 200,000 expats in Thailand, that’s a mix of farang retirees and those working here…see the link below for how this figure was calculated;

 

Let’s be really generous and say that each farang expat uses the money in the bank method and each has one million baht in Thai banks, that amounts to THB 200 billion or USD 6.7 bill. Thai GDP is around USD 500 billion so up to this point farang money is worth about 1.4% of GDP, a more precise calculation would probably show it to be under 1% per year.

 

What about cars, motor bikes, houses and condo’s I hear you say, OK, let’s triple the figure and say it’s 3% of GDP or even 5% and that’s being super generous! So if every foreign expat sold up and left on the same day, the Thai economy would suffer a one time hit equal to 5% of GDP or about USD 33.5 billion. 5% of GDP is a lot of money but there again it’s not earth shattering, it’s only about equal to a GDP increase in a good year so I suspect the country would get by.

 

What about the banks you ask? Well, Bank of Ayudyah is owned by Bank Mitusbishi and they have over USD 2.5 trillion in assets so I guess they wouldn’t care that much. SCB is over USD 1 trillion in assets, as is Bangkok Bank, I know assets is not the same as deposits and granted it would cause some upset but it looks like they could get through it all OK.

 

We could try and zero in a more accurate number but there would be much debate about who spends what so I’ve purposely gone to the very high side, you can take your own view of what that number is in the range of USD 16 to 33.5 billion.

 

Conclusion: overall impact of all expats pulling all their assets out of Thailand on the same day, negligible to none!

  

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1114408-the-mystery-of-exactly-how-many-expats-live-in-thailand/

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/gdp

[ChipButty]

You need to get a new hobby or get out more

[DannyCarlton]

7 minutes ago, Roy Baht said:

Conclusion: overall impact of all expats pulling all their assets out of Thailand on the same day, negligible to none!

Even given the dubious facts you have quoted, they don't support the conclusion you have drawn.

[saengd]

I reckon that all sounds about right, if anything you've overstated the financial impact on the economy but it's not unreasonable to make the case that way.

[Denim]

Yes, but if I leave the local female population will be devastated.

 

Everything will grind to a halt.

[Sticky Wicket]

It would hit certain pockets of the country hard.

A lot of Issan has been funded over the years by expats.

When 'John' gives "Fon' 10,000 baht that money then splits off into various avenues and assists a lot of people.

Extrapolate that and you are talking about affecting a lot of lives

[Matzzon]

The fact is that we are not a serious factor in Thai economics. To see that, you will not need any dubious numbers or anything else. Just a portion of common sense. 

However, his mad calculation does not take the humans and families affected by an exodus into consideration. It´s there the big problem is hiding. The Thai government and the Thai economy is it´s whole will not be affected much. What is going to happen can be seen below:

 

• A lot of families going to be left with no means of support.
• Some professions, as for example the bar scene and all the working girls is going to lose a big part of their regular income.
• A lot of restaurants that have been catering to western cuisine and international food, will have to close.

I will assume there will be a whole lot of other factors that could be included, but to sink the OP this will be enough.

Maybe now you will understand that the GDP has nothing to to with this, and you are just making yourself look like a fool with no relevant knowledge.

Do you also understand that it´s going to be the real people on the ground that are hurting the most, by loosing the family income, their jobs and so on?

I juts guess you didn´t think that far when you were sitting playing with your calculator to come up with the brilliant numbers of stupidity that you just delivered.

[saengd]

3 minutes ago, Sticky Wicket said:

It would hit certain pockets of the country hard.

A lot of Issan has been funded over the years by expats.

When 'John' gives "Fon' 10,000 baht that money then splits off into various avenues and assists a lot of people.

Extrapolate that and you are talking about affecting a lot of lives

In that example Fon would just go to Pattaya and get 1,000 baht each from ten tourists, job done.

[saengd]

2 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

The fact is that we are not a serious factor in Thai economics. To see that, you will not need any dubious numbers or anything else. Just a portion of common sense. 

However, his mad calculation does not take the humans and families affected by an exodus into consideration. It´s there the big problem is hiding. The Thai government and the Thai economy is it´s whole will not be affected much. What is going to happen can be seen below:

 

• A lot of families going to be left with no means of support.
• Some professions, as for example the bar scene and all the working girls is going to lose a big part of their regular income.
• A lot of restaurants that have been catering to western cuisine and international food, will have to close.

I will assume there will be a whole lot of other factors that could be included, but to sink the OP this will be enough.

Maybe now you will understand that the GDP has nothing to to with this, and you are just making yourself look like a fool with no relevant knowledge.

Do you also understand that it´s going to be the real people on the ground that are hurting the most, by loosing the family income, their jobs and so on?

I juts guess you didn´t think that far when you were sitting playing with your calculator to come up with the brilliant numbers of stupidity that you just delivered.

I thought the title was pretty clear, it's a math exercise, not a study of the social and humanity impacts!

[cmarshall]

I'll bet it's a lot closer to 50k foreigners.  The 38 million tourist visits as a whole contribute between 6% and 10% of GDP.  No way the expats amount to half that.

[Orton Rd]

If we all left 1% of Thais would still own 67% of the wealth, unfortunately. ????

[Matzzon]

2 minutes ago, saengd said:

I thought the title was pretty clear, it's a math exercise, not a study of the social and humanity impacts!

Ooh! Thanks! Great to know we have expats that thinks and count the same as the people at the top.

[Traubert]

3 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

I juts guess you didn´t think that far when you were sitting playing with your calculator to come up with the brilliant numbers of stupidity that you just delivered.

Truth a little painful eh?

 

What did these people do before Hank rode into town? They survived then, and they'll survive without him. The tourists will keep the bar scene going, the expats don't if they're all tucked up in Isaan, tourists  will keep the catering trade going too. You're confusing expats with tourists.

 

Just to underline the high estimates the op used, he used 200k. The number is really 150k including 79k retirees. This in a population of 63m is insignificant in it's own right.

[Beggar]

You are right. We expats are a burden for this country. Compared to tourists we don't spend a lot, block valuable rooms that could be occupied by such tourists and are a special burden for the immigration. I hope nobody of the government reads your post and thinks too much about it ????

[CNXexpat]

7 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

• A lot of families going to be left with no means of support.
• Some professions, as for example the bar scene and all the working girls is going to lose a big part of their regular income.
• A lot of restaurants that have been catering to western cuisine and international food, will have to close.

Many expats (like me) don´t support families because they don´t need support. Not all girlfriends/wifes come from poor families.

 

The bar scene is mostly visited from tourists. The impact of expats they prefer happy hours is small. And in Chiang Mai by example doesn´t exist a bar scene like in Pattaya.

 

Also Thais like western food and there are also the tourists. What do you think how many western restaurants are in Thailand? And how often the expats visit them? Not every expat every day. 

[CNXexpat]

3 minutes ago, Beggar said:

We expats are a burden for this country

There is a zone between "burden" and "high value" for the country. 

[Beggar]

2 minutes ago, CNXexpat said:

There is a zone between "burden" and "high value" for the country. 

Okay. Okay. Let's say "We are (still) tolerated". 

[LomSak27]

35 minutes ago, Roy Baht said:

Conclusion: overall impact of all expats pulling all their assets out of Thailand on the same day, negligible to none!

Great work Roy! Don't just deflect or deny ... Attack! 

 

 

Edited January 23, 2020 by LomSak27

[CNXexpat]

3 minutes ago, Beggar said:

Okay. Okay. Let's say "We are (still) tolerated". 

We leave money in the country (but not so much as some people think) and some are working in banks, factories, etc. If we don´t disturb, they are ok with us. And they always have someone to blame.

[ezzra]

The locals will in deep shock, no one to point at in front of some placards and boards, double charge at venues, point and say 'you you' and no one to blame in road accidents and just think of all those immigration guys around the country as most of them will have to go home...

[CGW]

19 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

Great to know we have expats that thinks and count the same as the people at the top.

That about sums it up, none of these equations take into account the personal suffering by the lower end of the social divide!

For The "rich" nothing would change, for the poor that would be a substantial impact!

[anterian]

All I can say is my village would be very unhappy if I left, no sponsorship of the village football team, no sponsorship of village events and no interest free loans to many families. 

[Just Weird]

44 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

What is going to happen can be seen below:

• Some professions, as for example the bar scene and all the working girls is going to lose a big part of their regular income.
• A lot of restaurants that have been catering to western cuisine and international food, will have to close.

For that to be the case you have to assume, very optimistically, that the local expats/retirees keep those businesses going!   What about the millions of tourists that are the real supporters of those businesses that you have excluded?

Edited January 23, 2020 by Just Weird

[Beggar]

13 minutes ago, anterian said:

All I can say is my village would be very unhappy if I left, no sponsorship of the village football team, no sponsorship of village events and no interest free loans to many families. 

Ask them to give the money back and watch what will happen. 

[Pravda]

I used to think like the OP.

 

I thought our money is not important and it probably isn't.

 

However, I learned when I bought my overpriced condo in Toronto that there is such thing as sentiment. At that time a bunch of real estate bears were telling me you are an tool buying at the top. You'll lose all your money. Salaries don't support such high evaluations.

 

Meanwhile my condo has doubled in price while salaries remained almost the same. All because of the sentiment and immigrants thinking it's a next Sillicon Valley.

 

I think that if enough white skin leaves other foreign (Asian) tourist won't perceive Thailand as a desirable destination and that is where OP's math does not have any meaning whatsoever.

 

 

[ThomasThBKK]

extremely simplified non sense calculation.

 

Most expat workers here are in higher positions, CEOs of BMW and co., Samsung etc.

You can say what you want but if westerners leave that will also include all japanese and koreans (Toyota, Samsung etc).

 

If they all have to leave, then for a damn good reason. That reason would be so bad that all above mentioned companies would be shut, all foreign direct investment would stop and the economy would be majorly skrewed.

That reason  will be the same reason that will stop tourists from coming here.

 

[ThomasThBKK]

Just now, Pravda said:

I used to think like the OP.

 

I thought our money is not important and it probably isn't.

 

However, I learned when I bought my overpriced condo in Toronto that there is such thing as sentiment. At that time a bunch of real estate bears were telling me you are an tool buying at the top. You'll lose all your money. Salaries don't support such high evaluations.

 

Meanwhile my condo has doubled in price while salaries remained almost the same. All because of the sentiment and immigrants thinking it's a next Sillicon Valley.

 

I think that if enough white skin leaves other foreign (Asian) tourist won't perceive Thailand as a desirable destination and that is where OP's math does not have any meaning whatsoever.

 

 

You wrote at the same time i did, but that's exactly what i mean.

 

Thailand would simply turn into myanmar craphole. 

[Yinn]

38 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

 What is going to happen can be seen below:

 

• A lot of families going to be left with no means of support.

They can get job, same 99.8% the other family. Be ok.

 

38 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

• Some professions, as for example the bar scene and all the working girls is going to lose a big part of their regular income

The sex workers can get job, like 99.9% the other people. Be ok.

 

38 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

• A lot of restaurants that have been catering to western cuisine and international food, will have to close.

True, less farang food. Be ok.

 

38 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

Do you also understand that it´s going to be the real people on the ground that are hurting the most, by loosing the family income, their jobs and so on?

 

How everyone else live?

 

thailand not have enough worker for the job. We must get worker from Burma, Cambodia and Laos. 3 million now. 

If 150,000 expat go, maybe = 150,000 less foreign worker. 

 

Some benefit (very small), hospital less busy, less traffic, less pollution, house be cheaper some place eg Hua Hin, Pattaya, Phuket, less crime.

 

If all the 800,000 baht visa bank leave= baht drop maybe a little bit= tourist more happy, export more happy. Import more expensive.

 

TVF will be very lonely. 

 

 

40 minutes ago, Traubert said:

Truth a little painful eh?

 

What did these people do before Hank rode into town? They survived then, and they'll survive without him. 

Nail on the head.

 

Think 98% people no different.

2% will be ok.

nobody starving in thailand, to many job. 

[Enoon]

 

Another accountants view of the "The Economy", as if it where one homogenous lump.

 

Failing to  take "account" of the fact that the expat baht is not spread evenly around/through the economy/country/society.

 

Ignoring it's importance to "embedded" macro/micro economies, in regional/local communities, which would definitely notice it's departure.

 

 

 

[Pravda]

8 minutes ago, Yinn said:

Nail on the head.

 

Think 98% people no different.

2% will be ok.

nobody starving in thailand, to many job. 

 

But... but.... how many people will lose face?

 

Remember 1997?

 

Probably not as you are not even Thai ????