Wuhan Covid Virus - no need to be scared - yet

[tropo]

Contrary to the OP's suggestion that the pandemic has been exaggerated and people are overreacting, I believe the opposite is true - it's worse than most people think.

 

I've been watching the live updates of cases reported over the world and was surprised to see the casualties in Italy jump from around 3400 a few hours ago to over 4000. Spain and France are not far behind, and then the rest of Europe will follow. The US tally just jumped, in hours, from 14,500 cases to over 20,000. I don't know what is going on in Russia, but I suspect they are purposefully keeping quiet, with few reported cases and only 1 death.

 

This is a good live video to bookmark with constantly updated tallies.

 

 

 

Edited March 21, 2020 by tropo

[rvaviator]

4 hours ago, Orton Rd said:

PJW's view

 

 

After 10 minutes watching this drivel ... I realized that is 10 minutes of my life I never get back ... So I hit the stop button ... Going cycling 

[nausea]

It's a blip. The overreaction is so funny. The Black Death was scary, as was Syphilis in it's earliest forms. Closing down The World because of this thing seems pretty stupid if you ask me. But what do I know? Just take it I say. The problem, I suppose, is that we've grown hypersensitive in our attitudes towards death. Previous generations would just take it in their stride, death was like common, and to be expected, not an exceptional event. Yeah, I'm a heavy smoking old codger, so I'm at great risk, as is my father who's 90+. Life wants to take me or him, so be it. You have your time, and do what you can with it. Not totally surprised the healthy young people feel immune. They're the one's getting screwed in this scenario.

[donmuang37]

I don't buy AussieBob's casual attitude - taking his advice puts you, you family, your friends and other people at serious risk. Hopefully, most people will ignore his foolish opinion.

[Guderian]

I'm doubtful if the thousands lying (and sadly also dying) in intensive care in Italy would agree with the OP.

[AussieBob18]

46 minutes ago, nausea said:

It's a blip. The overreaction is so funny. The Black Death was scary, as was Syphilis in it's earliest forms. Closing down The World because of this thing seems pretty stupid if you ask me. But what do I know? Just take it I say. The problem, I suppose, is that we've grown hypersensitive in our attitudes towards death. Previous generations would just take it in their stride, death was like common, and to be expected, not an exceptional event. Yeah, I'm a heavy smoking old codger, so I'm at great risk, as is my father who's 90+. Life wants to take me or him, so be it. You have your time, and do what you can with it. Not totally surprised the healthy young people feel immune. They're the one's getting screwed in this scenario.

Dont disagree with that - except to add that those with superannuation funds (like me) are losing almost as much as in 2007-2008 under the GFC. But unlike the GFC, this will bounce back quickly I think if/when things settle down. When will things settle is the big issue - if this is a Spanish Flu scenario - then years. But I am extremely skeptical this will be as bad and that 25+ million will die within a year.  The swine flu H1N1 killed about 20,000 in 12 months and in the same period about 300,000 to 500,000 died from seasonal flu related illnesses.  So far in 3 months this flu/virus has killed almost 10,000 - but will it slow or will it keep growing - I am skeptical that it is going to kill 20+ million which is how they are reacting - but if they are right then that will have been the right thing - and if they are wrong?? World recession for a bad flu will be the verdict. 

 

[AussieBob18]

9 minutes ago, donmuang37 said:

I don't buy AussieBob's casual attitude - taking his advice puts you, you family, your friends and other people at serious risk. Hopefully, most people will ignore his foolish opinion.

Advice?? Casual Attitude?? Read all my posts before responding with such false rubbish.  I have said I am skeptical and I dont believe their forecasts of millions dieing and that justifies why they have crashed the world economies. But I have not said to do anything other than to take precautions and hope this passes quickly. Read my posts !!  

[AussieBob18]

12 minutes ago, Guderian said:

I'm doubtful if the thousands lying (and sadly also dying) in intensive care in Italy would agree with the OP.

True.  And very sad.  But Italy is an anomoly and they do not know why.  Korea and Japan and China have slowed infection rates and seem to be winning after 2-3 months of intensive actions.  Why has Japan which was expected to be as bad as Korea, not had the same rates - no certainty.  But they are saying that Itely has a very old population that smokes and drinks a lot and most of their deaths have been those over 70 - so maybe that is the reason.  Too early to tell.  But referring to Italy is like telling someone whose family member died in a car accident, that Japan has the safest roads in the world - it is clearly irrelevent in that situation.  

Edited March 21, 2020 by AussieBob18

[Lacessit]

4 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

Glad to hear you are golfing at 77 - there is hope for me too.

Leigh Winser, a former Australian Amateur Champion, was golfing well into his nineties. Broke his age many times. Each year I add gives me a better shot at doing the same. Sorry, off topic.

 

[bestie]

Compassion was replaced by consume in this modern world. We are buying stupid things and more stupid things in order to feel better and stronger.  It let us live in an illusion that our life will go on forever. And nothing can hurt us. The power of money shows others how healthy we are. Buying the newest car and a young girlfriend to show the status to others and to have fun times, no matter what heart she or he has. superficiality has become our biggest strength today. Now we realize how fragile our life can be. And that's scares a lot of people and many of them with or without health problems has many reason for that. Some are afraid of the virus, some are afraid to loosing their jobs and business, some are afraid because of the government, some because the health system could or are collapsing in some countries.

 

For me personal I think we should do everything to get this virus under control, because if you see the pictures and videos where people suffering from this disease, where people cannot breath anymore and begging for help but the medical device is not available_ BREAKS MY HEART!!!! 

 

That doesn't mean there are no other diseases out there which are more dangerous to us, that doesn't mean that my heart wasn't broken before because of our inhuman system and living lifestyle, where we sitting infront of our newest flatscreens while in Africa people dying or starving for food. Calling the line to donate some money is not getting rid of the problem but it let us fell better.

 

We should do our best to support and help. And if only help means to stay in our homes for a longer time to rescue some lifes , we should. Of course nobody can stay forever inside but if we do it because we want to help others, and not because we are only scared then we are on the right way.  

 

If some of us wake up one day after this disaster in a more human world where maybe we not overrunning beggars while we screaming at them that they should find a job, if some us realize that compassion in a human soul is stronger then a money competition between us. Then we are on the right way.

 

Love Ya. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Lacessit]

1 hour ago, RJRS1301 said:

Cashless society has been planned for at least five years, RB Australia was doing information sessions and modelling on it at least 5 years ago, phasin out of cheque books being the first part, it will be phased in over time.

 

 

 

I wrote my last cheque in 2014.

The only use I have for cash in Australia now is bringing it back to Thailand to exchange for baht. A debit card is all I ever use there for day-to-day stuff.

[Swimfan]

6 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

Flu kills up to 650,000 people worldwide each year - WHO number not mine - I rounded down to 500K.

 

650,000 a year equates to 54,166 every month.

 

Do the maths.

 

Simplistic answer to what it currently still a very unknown infection. Best leave the equations to the experts. 
 

[rabas]

2 hours ago, pdtokyo said:

... to be precise ... the "Newtstein"switch (to give it it's correct title) fitted to NavStar1, NavStar2 and NavStar3 also had an intermediary "0" setting to be used in the event that both Newton and Einstein were wrong. NavStar4 and subsequent satellites used a quantum-based switch that covered all possible settings.

Lol!  Talk about trusting no one.

[AussieBob18]

1 hour ago, Lacessit said:

Leigh Winser, a former Australian Amateur Champion, was golfing well into his nineties. Broke his age many times. Each year I add gives me a better shot at doing the same. Sorry, off topic.

 

Not that much off topic - it is about being older and surviving ????   There are many things on my bucket list I have done, and some I never will, but there is one I am hopeful of - and that is beating my age at golf.  I assume he was a good golfer and therefore probably did it in his 70s - and probably on a 'real' golf course (par 72). There is an easy golf course nearby here where par is 68 and I have shot in the mid 70s a few times - so maybe.  That is the key I reckon - finding  an easier golf course ????  No way at Augusta or Bay Hill - never will be I reckon on a course like that.

 

[Logosone]

3 hours ago, Antonymous said:

 

I have a different opinion on this. Politicians will always make the most of a crisis to further their ends. The enormous (unprecedented outside of wartime) changes to everyday society - restrictions of freedom being the byword - that we are witnessing around the world and the practical exercise of power that governments are now 'enjoying' are unlikely to be given up entirely once the panic has subsided.

 

I fully expect that certain aspects of authoritarian control will be enhanced while the general public are more amenable to them.

 

Mandatory vaccination is one obvious likely outcome.

 

A big push to a cashless society (Europe taking the lead) a less obvious one.

We definitely need to think about what changes will happen because of this virus.

 

However, in the West I don't think we need to be concerned about permanent lockdowns or anything like this. The populace will never stand for it.  

 

Mandatory vaccination, yes, we already have that in some countries, 

 

Air travel, you can be sure that governments will support their airlines, and those airlines will push towards travel, but the golden age of cheap air travel may be over, but we shall see.

 

Definitely worth thinking about this.

[Logosone]

1 hour ago, donmuang37 said:

I don't buy AussieBob's casual attitude - taking his advice puts you, you family, your friends and other people at serious risk. Hopefully, most people will ignore his foolish opinion.

I don't see how staying cool in the face of crisis can ever put anyone at risk.

 

Those panic mongers however who are buying the last milk and vegetables so that vulnerable people have to go without, that's another matter.

[rech]

7 hours ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

That's as far as I got ????????

 

Just kidding 

 

Good, it is the smartest point of the post.

 

 

[Nanaplaza666]

I don't understand that some people on here still don't see the seriousness of this pandamic and think it's just another kind o flu . This sh.t is not over yet and there is no medicine or vaccination yet for the near future . + let's not forget the economical part of the story . How many businesses and people will this effect on economicly . It's a bit bigger then you optimists think . Hope it doesn't affect any of you or your families but it is happening and it's more serious then some posters on here think . But whe are in it to win it so hope everybody stays safe and healthy .

[Logosone]

3 hours ago, RJRS1301 said:

 

I agree there may well be more restriction on population movements for a longer period of time, a greater return to "nationalism", and restrictions which will become accepted as "everyday life" something the "flower children" of the 70s could not imagine.

 

 

I do think that nationalism will be greatly increased after this virus is over. Simply because it is the perception that 'foreigners' brought in the virus. The fear of the 'other' will increase.

 

I'm curious if sexual mores will be affected, will women be less keen to risk a one-night stand because of covid19? Maybe not, even with AIDS some chance it and without a condom.

[Logosone]

1 minute ago, Nanaplaza666 said:

I don't understand that some people on here still don't see the seriousness of this pandamic and think it's just another kind o flu . This sh.t is not over yet and there is no medicine or vaccination yet for the near future . + let's not forget the economical part of the story . How many businesses and people will this effect on economicly . It's a bit bigger then you optimists think . Hope it doesn't affect any of you or your families but it is happening and it's more serious then some posters on here think . But whe are in it to win it so hope everybody stays safe and healthy .

The covid19 and influenza viruses are related.

 

Coronaviruses belong to Riboviria realm of viruses, which encompasses all RNA viruses.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riboviria

 

Influenza viruses of the Orthomyxoviridae family are all, without exception, RNA viruses.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orthomyxoviridae

 

So they are related. 

 

[AussieBob18]

2 hours ago, Swimfan said:

Simplistic answer to what it currently still a very unknown infection. Best leave the equations to the experts. 
 

I am skeptical of 'experts' whose advice has shut down the world's economies for a death rate that is yet to be as high as the seasonal flus. Maybe it will be as bad as they say - but I am skeptical - and I am sure you hope I am right.

 

[CGW]

2 hours ago, donmuang37 said:

I don't buy AussieBob's casual attitude - taking his advice puts you, you family, your friends and other people at serious risk. Hopefully, most people will ignore his foolish opinion.

I hope most people will treat your "opinion" with the scorn it deserves, just my opinion, something we are all entitled too ???? 

Taking your advice will put all at definite risk of being a miserable "tw*ts"

The end result will be the same regardless.

[AussieBob18]

29 minutes ago, Nanaplaza666 said:

I don't understand that some people on here still don't see the seriousness of this pandamic and think it's just another kind o flu . This sh.t is not over yet and there is no medicine or vaccination yet for the near future . + let's not forget the economical part of the story . How many businesses and people will this effect on economicly . It's a bit bigger then you optimists think . Hope it doesn't affect any of you or your families but it is happening and it's more serious then some posters on here think . But whe are in it to win it so hope everybody stays safe and healthy .

There is no doubt that your popint about economics is true - but that is the issue - was it necessary to cause that economic hardships worldwide -  if it turns out this is as bad as they said it was then OK, but I doubt it weill be any where near as bad as the spanish flu with 20+ million killed and the resason I say that is because  some of the facts emerging support my skepticism.

If the infection rate and mortality was like in Italy worldwide, then my skepticism would be unfounded - but they are not.

[Logosone]

Can you imagine if Covid19, like SARS before, just goes away, just stops overnight.

 

All the governments that will have driven millions of businesses into bankruptcy, millions of people into unemployment, how would they fare?

 

It's a bit of a gamble if you're a prime minister, isn't it you have to protect the people, but if it turns out you massively overdid it well, the wrath of the people would be assured.

 

We can be sure to see lawsuits against the government, business suing politicians, without success no doubt, but the anger would be understandable.,

Edited March 21, 2020 by Logosone

[RJRS1301]

2 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

Advice?? Casual Attitude?? Read all my posts before responding with such false rubbish.  I have said I am skeptical and I dont believe their forecasts of millions dieing and that justifies why they have crashed the world economies. But I have not said to do anything other than to take precautions and hope this passes quickly. Read my posts !!

600 today in Italy up from 400 yesterday

[RJRS1301]

34 minutes ago, CGW said:

I hope most people will treat your "opinion" with the scorn it deserves, just my opinion, something we are all entitled too ???? 

Taking your advice will put all at definite risk of being a miserable "tw*ts"

The end result will be the same regardless.

I fail to see how he given any advice, he has voiced his skepticism, he has a differing opinion, which many disagree with, but I see no advice

Edited March 21, 2020 by RJRS1301

[Shaunduhpostman]

Good thread, nice to see what is going on being discussed. I can't help but feeling after several weeks of the CoVid19 crisis that there is almost all entirely panic driven or tunnelvision statements and even from time to time mistatements of the facts by people in leadership and by the media. One example would be California's governor Gavin Newsom. Newsom  has said recently publicly that California will be facing 25.5 million cases of CoVid19 and that he needs authority to suspend normal operations legal/government and declare a state of emergency. We are now seeing what could conceivably be a stepping up in that direction with the deployment of the California national guard, which is a US military branch, to distribute food.  Given that the US authorities have said they expect only 2 million cases, something seems very wrong with Newsom's statement that 25.5 million in California will be infected. Where are the facts and the support for this statement? As governor of California are we, in the current situation, allowed to ask for clarification?  Its just one example of things just not adding up and making one ask if there isn't a long line of of years of abuses of power in store for all of us under the rubric of, this is being done for your safety. I think the virus should be taken seriously as a threat in good measure, but what I find disturbing is the complete lack of media or even citizen oversight just by way of discussion and analysis regarding the actions statements of government and those with medical authority.  We have to bear in mind we are entrusting selfish human beings to take care of the crisis and if there is no room for oversight and if people don't respond we will have a lot more problems than CoVid19. The many upshots of the CoVid19 crisis seem to me to be looking to be much worse than the virus itself in the long run, not least of which is the train wrecking of the world economy.

 

I feel like I just don't get it or something. CoVid19 is a Corona virus as are flus and colds. Very few people will be on respirators hospitalised etc. Why aren't people being urged to up their immunity? Take vitamin C, eat plenty of vegetables, fruits and nuts, drink and smoke a bit less etc. If one is healthy the virus has less chance i would think of putting one in the hospital. I see zero attention in the media on improvng your own health to combat the virus.

 

Any flu or cold could also put one in the hospital. No doubt many are in the hospital now for colds and flus from other Corona viruses. Personally, when I was in Korea in 1997, I had a super nasty flu, that had me in bed at home for a week, no doubt if I weren't young and healthy it would have killed me. 104 degree fever or something like that. The doctor was not alarmed I was not quaranteened, just here's some meds and stay in bed and drink lots of fluids. These virusues have always been here, and to me it just seems like over-reach to shut everything down for 18 months as the Imperial college was recommending. It is never asked how many people will die as a result of the world economy crashing, there are going to be so many negative consequences for so many people. That is really the blind spot, the denial of how people in poverty die from poverty, so a discussion just isnt allowed, that potentially throwing billions into economic turmoil is a perfectly acceptable solution to CoVid19. It is just how modern medical treatments can often work, we don't carea bout the patient, just use whatever medication will get rid of the patient's condition.

 

To me, my non-expert, man on the street reaction is not to panic and try and get a perspective based what facts are being presented. I think  an important question to ask any time an expert says anything particulalry in the media is is what the expert saying fact driven and where are those facts coming from and are the facts being analyzed and considered in a way that makes sense. We all have some ability to come to our own correct conclusions and to just rely on experts is  a slippery slope. Sure they may have more training and knowledge than you and I but they have agendas and the people they work for have agendas and therein lies the meat of the problem is that people will most definitely be taking selfish advantage to our detriment.

 

 

[Stevemercer]

Assuming 100,000 cases in Hubei (the worst affected province in China), which has a population of 58 million, then the infection rate for that province is 0.2%.

 

Of course, China implemented draconian restrictions after the initial 2 months. Still, there was nearly 2 months of unrestricted spread.

 

If recommended precautions are followed, the societal risk of infection is closer to 1%. I assume the predictions of 3% or higher assume society flouts the recommended precautions.

[RJRS1301]

11 minutes ago, Stevemercer said:

Of course, China implemented draconian restrictions after the initial 2 months. Still, there was nearly 2 months of unrestricted spread.

and nationals returinng to other countries for work like Milan after CNY , couple that with close relationship Italians have with each other ipsofacto 600 dead today alone

Edited March 21, 2020 by RJRS1301

[RJRS1301]

8 minutes ago, Stevemercer said:

 

 

If recommended precautions are followed, the societal risk of infection is closer to 1%. I assume the predictions of 3% or higher assume society flouts the recommended precautions.

which of course is happening across the globe. Look at the number of people at beaches, bars restaurants etc.'