How coronavirus hitched a ride through China

By Marco Hernandez, Cate Cadell

 

FILE PHOTO: A man wearing a face mask walks past an estate agent in Guangzhou's Sanyuanli area, as the spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues in the country, in Guangdong province, China April 13, 2020. REUTERS/David Kirton

 

(Reuters) - As residents of China’s Wuhan began leaving for the first time last week, a Reuters analysis of official statements, data and residents’ accounts reveals how the coronavirus took hold and spread to more than 25 areas of the country before a Jan. 23 lockdown of the city.

 

Click here to see an interactive graphic that tracks the spread of the coronavirus across China

 

To the northeastern province of Heilongjiang, on the Russian border, the southern province of Yunnan, on the borders of Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam, and the far western region of Xinjiang, people drove, flew and travelled by train, on business and to visit relatives for the Lunar New Year holiday.

 

All the while, the coronavirus travelled with them, from as early as December.

 

New infections in China have declined sharply since a peak of 15,000 cases reported in a single day in February.

 

Since the beginning of April, China has reported a daily average of 51 cases, with the majority linked to people returning from abroad.

 

As figures have fallen, officials and state media have declared victory over the disease, but efforts to reopen China from months of lockdown are slow, with growing fears that a new wave of infections could cripple the densely populated country a second time.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-04-16

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14 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

with growing fears that a new wave of infections could cripple the densely populated country a second time.

It seems more and more difficult to get completely rid of that virus . It may be here to stay . In that case there will be no way back to ' normal ' .

It is only lucky that it is not very deadly ( yet ) because it mutates constantly ...

"New infections in China have declined sharply since a peak of 15,000 cases reported in a single day in February." 

 

Was it the new infections that declined, or just the number of infections that were being reported? 

 

From Bloomberg article in Feb:

"The number of new coronavirus cases reported by Hubei province dropped sharply after China changed the way it officially reports the number of infections for the second time in a month, raising questions over the reliability of data from the epicenter of the outbreak." https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-20/data-mistrust-grows-as-hubei-changes-virus-count-method-again 

 

 

3 hours ago, Misty said:

"New infections in China have declined sharply since a peak of 15,000 cases reported in a single day in February." 

 

Was it the new infections that declined, or just the number of infections that were being reported? 

 

From Bloomberg article in Feb:

"The number of new coronavirus cases reported by Hubei province dropped sharply after China changed the way it officially reports the number of infections for the second time in a month, raising questions over the reliability of data from the epicenter of the outbreak." https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-20/data-mistrust-grows-as-hubei-changes-virus-count-method-again 

 

 

Famous skeptic Thunderf00t just made a good point on this matter, case numbers reported by China followed exactly characteristics like other countries' outbreak: 1. slowly increasing intial stage when no screening introduced; 2. fast exponetial increasing of power 1.3/perday; 3. lagged but defined rooftopping after serious quarantine measures introduced, it goes linear - then flat - then down. 

 

Bear in mind Chine was first victim of virus thus the *only* one who doesn't know how outbreak curve should look like. Yet they ’faked‘(as conspiracists and sinophobes suggested) their number exactly like what acutal numbers should and would be. Not very bright in faking aren't they.

 

A very important parameter to various models is when to start impose quarantine measures to slowdown expontial spreads. China in Jan 23 locked down a megacity and effectively half their country, the same day they reported 554 total cases. In US - not until Thousands of cases then started mild stay in home, thus the US curve while also follow same characteristcs of China and others, but the |numbers| are skyrocketing. 

 

Though 554 case reported in Jan 23 atm are enough terrifying if one doesn't view with hindsight perception - that virus would kill much more in many countries - many were too diligent to travel ban but reluctant even lazy to issue critical internal quarantine measures: mass screening, social distancing, city shutdown, PPE boost. 

 

(Thunderf00t is working scientist at Czech Institute of Organic Chemistry and Biochemistry / AVCR. He had a brilliant video in early Feb 10 almost pinpointed follow development of virus. )

 

(Mar 20: NYC issued stop non-essential biz and stay in home after more than 7,000 cases reported: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/20/new-york-90-day-stay-home-order-what-it-means)

 

(Jan 23: China issued Wuhan lockdown the same they repoted 554 total cases in Jan 22: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/23/coronavirus-panic-and-anger-in-wuhan-as-china-orders-city-into-lockdown)

 

 

CCP owns Wuhan virus.  Bring on the reparations.  

19 minutes ago, Coremouse said:

explaining it “was an error on our part” to erroneously link the pathogen with Wuhan and China.”

I think everybody knows by now where ( and why ) it originated .

Conspiracy theories everywhere , of course , but the facts are non deniable ...

8 minutes ago, nobodysfriend said:

I think everybody knows by now where ( and why ) it originated .

Conspiracy theories everywhere , of course , but the facts are non deniable ...

The statement from Nature was about (grammartically) linking virus to people or country(because it originated through mother nature), not where it supposed to originate. It first hits China no doubt.

 

Nor where it originates matter, it could be anywhere, like North America is famous for hunting wild animals and did spread swineflu to the world. It's just probablity. Quarantine measures won't differ.

 

 

No wonder CCP fought so hard to name Wuhan virus Covid-19.  And the WHO agreed with their customer.

1 hour ago, Coremouse said:

Bear in mind Chine was first victim of virus thus the *only* one who doesn't know how outbreak curve should look like. Yet they ’faked‘(as conspiracists and sinophobes suggested) their number exactly like what acutal numbers should and would be. Not very bright in faking aren't they.

If I report only a fraction of my cases, the shape of the curve is unchanged. There are enough documented problems with Chinese reporting without needing conspiracy theories.

31 minutes ago, Coremouse said:

The statement from Nature was about (grammartically) linking virus to people or country(because it originated through mother nature), not where it supposed to originate. It first hits China no doubt.

 

Nor where it originates matter, it could be anywhere, like North America is famous for hunting wild animals and did spread swineflu to the world. It's just probablity. Quarantine measures won't differ.

China is famous for new diseases. Hunting has been prevalent through mankind’s history.

 

Linking a disease outbreak to a location is simply a memory device. Every rock, cranny, and ditch on Mars is named after a location on Earth so that people can remember for discussion.

 

If you want to call the Swine Flu, Influenza A-H1N1-2009, the Mexican flu I think that's OK.

 

"The 2009 swine flu outbreak originated in Veracruz, Mexico. Health workers traced the virus to a pig farm in this south eastern Mexican state. A young boy who lived nearby was among the first people to contract the swine flu."

We all know it was from the lab in Wuhan. Deliberate or Accidental makes no diffrence. The problem the CCP and WHO have is that they failed to notify everyone that this can pass from human to human. They knew that in Mid December. 

8 minutes ago, Snow Leopard said:

We all know it was from the lab in Wuhan. Deliberate or Accidental makes no diffrence. The problem the CCP and WHO have is that they failed to notify everyone that this can pass from human to human. They knew that in Mid December. 

How did WHO know it?

2 minutes ago, candide said:

How did WHO know it?

Because it was reported to them from Taiwan. 

56 minutes ago, rabas said:

If I report only a fraction of my cases, the shape of the curve is unchanged. There are enough documented problems with Chinese reporting without needing conspiracy theories.

Every exam seems so easy when your know answers in hindsight. Isn't that genius! So even they started higher, they don't need worry about hiding exponentially increasing patients? Don't need hide forklifting corpses / digging Hart island hole / Insufficient handling capacity etc, and like miracle not anyone in Wuhan saw them 17 Millions bodies lying at street(the returning medical assitance volunteers told me situation almost normal by their departure), except some ambigous april fool vids and some trumpuse bois: "I believe" "they must" "they probably" "surely they did"

 

Do you complaint US, France retrotesting adding thousands death toll among earlier death figure? They must intentionally faked it and millions already dead aren't they. (Worldometer: 6158 deaths US april 14 alone)

China has lost credibility in the west.  And the mood isn’t pretty.  We will always remember Wuhan virus pandemic.

1 hour ago, Snow Leopard said:

Because it was reported to them from Taiwan. 

There's a difference between a rumour or suspicion and a confirmation.

 

Good luck, China.  You’re gonna need it.

5 minutes ago, rabas said:

Because of you know WHO feeding Chinese misinformation (h2h? lol) to the rest of the world.

thank you for an excellent example!

i couldn't have said it better myself!

now rhyddid will understand exactly what i was attempting to convey.

1 hour ago, rabas said:

Because of you know WHO feeding Chinese misinformation (h2h? lol) to the rest of the world.

Unconfirmed is not refuting. And science is not the fastest thing. If you come to possibility and suggestion, China is first to suggest asymptomatic transmission circa Jan 23 lockdown, and was viewed with suspicion of overreaction by academics around the world - because asym.trans. is quite rare thing and may take years to scientifically proove/for a particular strain. They did release multiple DNA sequencing Jan 12. What else do you need to ask?

 

Now everyone blinded by the numbers like 6185 US death report just April 14 alone, they forgot how in Jan 24 when China reported 2 digit death per day and lockdown a megacity along train traffics are genuine clear, terrifying message. You don't need WHO to warn you(they did anyway) and many countries travel banned China against WHO guideline. 

 

Think virus as a drop of virulent red paint, nation population like US people as a cup of water, and international transportation as a valve can never be completely closed. The problem with US, Italy and many is they reduced valve openning( very early travel banned China ), but that gave them a false sense of security, thus do nothing to cap off the cup - mass screening, distancing etc. And of course, a single drop of US returnee would then paint entire cup bloody red. When did US start cap the cup? Turns out March 20! And you complaining China& WHO - why not complain Italy feeding misinformation then! 

 

Need to know for a virus that is stealthy and high r0 there's no way to stop it with travel ban, alone. Only way to stop it is quarantine as a whole - not herd immunity, but herd precaution and quarantine. In case of 14 days of incubation and R0=3, that means >80% should comply with quarantine and stay-at-home, or 1/6 non-believer goes partyé could ruin perserverance of other 5/6. China did contain virus to a degree without travel ban, OK you don't believe it but every sane mind would agree China is not as severe as several as now, and China only issued travel ban after Mar 28 because they think they're clean enough every single drop matters now. By Jan 23 China suggested it's a stealthy virus and their casualty equivalent to R0>=2.5 for sure.

 

351 cases reported in China today (from yesterday) and a whopping 1290 deaths in a day.

 

What happened to having it under control.

 

I think we all know that answer.

1 minute ago, Laughing Gravy said:

351 cases reported in China today (from yesterday) and a whopping 1290 deaths in a day.

 

What happened to having it under control.

 

I think we all know that answer.

Whopping 6185 deaths in US in april 14, alone. Samething they're doing is systematically retrotesting or reclassify. And since China systematically retrotesting very old cases of months span( partially trying locate true patient0 maybe hoping for an US guy, also find any antibodies useful to research ), it's like accurate picture that's it. Of course some would never believe. 

10 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

351 cases reported in China today (from yesterday) and a whopping 1290 deaths in a day.

 

What happened to having it under control.

 

I think we all know that answer.

i don't thimk those numbers mean what you think they mean. 

 

Wuhan (China), the epicenter of the pandemic, today reported 1,290 additional deaths that had not been previously counted and reported, bringing the total number of deaths in Wuhan from 2,579 to 3,869, an increase of 50%, as the result of a revision by the Wuhan New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic Prevention and Control. As part of this revision, 325 additional cases in Wuhan were also added. Separately, China's National Health Commission (NHC) reported 26 new cases (and no deaths) in its daily report

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/

2 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

China has lost credibility in the west.  And the mood isn’t pretty.  We will always remember Wuhan virus pandemic.

And, of course, YOU speak for "the west"... ????

25 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

351 cases reported in China today (from yesterday) and a whopping 1290 deaths in a day.

 

What happened to having it under control.

 

I think we all know that answer.

Maybe you need to check reading comprehension skills on those numbers...

Time to fess up, China.  America knows you suppress information.  And that kind of BS points to a cover-up at your Wuhan virus lab.  You have no credibility until you prove your innocence—not ignorance.

2 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

Time to fess up, China.  America knows you suppress information.  And that kind of BS points to a cover-up at your Wuhan virus lab.  You have no credibility until you prove your innocence—not ignorance.

Of course, core U.S. value: guilty 'til proven innocent!! ????????????

4 hours ago, candide said:

How did WHO know it?

Right. WHO knows absolutely nothing, except taking bribes from the CCP.  And how about how they ignored Taiwan’s virus information in December?  

1 hour ago, mikebike said:

Of course, core U.S. value: guilty 'til proven innocent!! ????????????

You don't believe there is ample evidence China has prevented the free flow of facts, data and information?????? Wow. By any chance are you from China?

12 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

Right. WHO knows absolutely nothing, except taking bribes from the CCP.  And how about how they ignored Taiwan’s virus information in December?  

It seemed than Taiwan only asked for information.

"TAIPEI--Tension flared again on Saturday as Taiwan accused the World Health Organization (WHO) of playing word games in a dispute over details it sought in an email querying if the new coronavirus could be transmitted between people.".....

"In Taipei on Saturday, Health Minister Chen Shih-chung quoted the text of the Dec. 31 email written in English that the government sent to the WHO.

"News resources today indicate that at least seven atypical pneumonia cases were reported in Wuhan, China," Chen said, reading the email.

"Their health authorities replied to the media that the cases were believed not to be SARS, however the samples are still under examination, and cases have been isolated for treatment," he continued.

 

http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/13291342

 

Same information on Reuters

2 hours ago, Coremouse said:

Whopping 6185 deaths in US in april 14, alone. Samething they're doing is systematically retrotesting or reclassify. And since China systematically retrotesting very old cases of months span( partially trying locate true patient0 maybe hoping for an US guy, also find any antibodies useful to research ), it's like accurate picture that's it. Of course some would never believe. 

A Chinese apologist thank you.