At least 300,000 Africans expected to die in pandemic: U.N. agency

By Joe Bavier

 

FILE PHOTO: A health worker sprays his headset during a community testing exercise, as authorities race to contain the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Abuja, Nigeria April 16, 2020. REUTERS/Afolabi Sotunde/File Photo

 

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - The COVID-19 pandemic will likely kill at least 300,000 Africans and risks pushing 29 million into extreme poverty, the U.N. Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) said on Friday, calling for a $100 billion safety net for the continent.

 

Africa's 54 countries have so far reported fewer than 20,000 confirmed cases of the disease, just a fraction of the more than two million cases reported globally. But the World Health Organization warned on Thursday that Africa could see as many as 10 million cases in three to six months.

 

"To protect and build towards our shared prosperity at least $100 billion is needed to immediately resource a health and social safety net response," the UNECA report stated.

 

UNECA is also backing a call by African finance ministers for an additional $100 billion in stimulus, which would include a halt to all external debt service.

 

The agency modelled four scenarios based on the level of preventive measures introduced by African governments.

 

In the total absence of such interventions, the study calculated over 1.2 billion Africans would be infected and 3.3 million would die this year. Africa has a total population of around 1.3 billion.

 

Most of Africa, however, has already mandated social distancing measures, ranging from curfews and travel guidelines in some countries to full lockdowns in others.

 

Yet even its best-case scenario, where governments introduce intense social distancing once a threshold of 0.2 deaths per 100,000 people per week is reached, Africa would see 122.8 million infections, 2.3 million hospitalisations and 300,000 deaths.

 

Combating the disease will be complicated by the fact that 36% of Africans have no access to household washing facilities, and the continent counts just 1.8 hospital beds per 1,000 people. France, in comparison, has 5.98 beds per 1,000 people.

 

Africa's young demographic - nearly 60% of the population is below the age of 25 - should help stave off the disease.

On the other hand, 56 per cent of the urban population is concentrated in overcrowded slums and many people are also vulnerable due to HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malnutrition.

 

Africa imports 94% of its pharmaceuticals, the report said, noting that at least 71 countries have banned or limited exports of certain supplies deemed essential to fight the disease.

 

"In a best-case scenario ... $44 billion would be required for testing, personal protective equipment, and to treat all those requiring hospitalisation," it stated.

 

However, that is money Africa does not have as the crisis could also shrink the continent's economy by up to 2.6%.

 

"We estimate that between 5 million and 29 million people will be pushed below the extreme poverty line of $1.90 per day owing to the impact of COVID-19," the report said.

 

Nigeria alone will lose between $14 billion and $19.2 billion in revenues from oil exports this year. And the prices of other African commodities exports have plummeted as well.

 

Lockdowns in Europe and the United States also imperil Africa's $15 billion in annual textile and apparel exports as well as tourism, which accounts for 8.5% of Africa's GDP.

 

(Reporting by Joe Bavier; editing by Philippa Fletcher)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-04-18

 

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Even the rich countries are lack of medical supplies, Africa will be in big trouble. 

1 hour ago, rooster59 said:

the U.N. Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) said on Friday, calling for a $100 billion safety net for the continent.

Right, of course they are, but how much of that would reach where it's supposed to? Rulers on that unfortunate continent seem to often be in the "unusually rich" category.

Would not more than that have died in the tribal wars that have beset Africa recently, but I see no desire by western countries other than France to get involved? Are those that die in conflict less worthy of life than those with Corona?

Just a wild guess, but I would expect somewhat less than $100 billion to be gifted by western countries. Perhaps China can front up with the $. They have plenty.

A troll post has been removed. 

Since many there suffer from a recent resurgence of Ebola virus--it begs the question:

If Ebola virus named after the Ebola River in Africa, why didn't WHO name Chinese Corona virus after Wuhan?  Did someone bribe the WHO into naming the virus with a non-locator?

the sad part is an African I know loved to complain about America and how Africa had such low numbers.  I didn't say anything, because i'm too old to complain with idiots.  it's WAY easier to bash another country instead of looking in the mirror and trying to find solutions.  even now, i would still pick America 100/100 times if I was forced.  But since I'm not forced, let's enjoy the heat.  next week.....super hot.  

2 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

Since many there suffer from a recent resurgence of Ebola virus--it begs the question:

If Ebola virus named after the Ebola River in Africa, why didn't WHO name Chinese Corona virus after Wuhan?  Did someone bribe the WHO into naming the virus with a non-locator?

For sure ,Plus a Bonus.        we  call it the " Wuhan Flu "

If I was a Chinese national in Africa building infrastructure, I'd recommend leaving pretty quickly

6 hours ago, rooster59 said:

the U.N. Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) said on Friday, calling for a $100 billion safety net for the continent.

They can ask for Whatever they want, That Doesn't mean that they will get it .If they get some money I would say Let them Document and Supply Evidence that All the Money End up in he Right Places. Not 90% on Admin Costs. We seen it all before with some organisations . 

i have some experience of africa,SARS didnt effect it so maybe they will be lucky for the same reason,the climate,maybe not who knows,excuse the pun!!africa does have advantages and disadvantages,poor health cover,corrupt incompetent govs ,poverty.theres high levels of HIV and malaria.on the other hand malaria meds are a cover and also the main thing is the weather,direct UV light severely effects the virus,it will kill the virus and so many people are outside .living and working.i think its a factor here too as i cant see why rates are so low when compared to USA/eu

4 minutes ago, rupert the bear said:

and also the main thing is the weather,direct UV light severely effects the virus,it will kill the virus and so many people are outside .living and working.i think its a factor here too as i cant see why rates are so low when compared to USA/eu

Just like in Brazil which straddles the equator and is 10th on the number of recorded deaths from C19.

Africa has already been pointed to as the 3rd pandemic centre & with modern air travel opening up in a couple of months this Covid 19 could be with us for years to come.

The wealthy world had their chance to alleviate many of the problems in Africa but chose to ignore it & leave them in squallor. This may come back & bite them where it hurts

1 minute ago, natway09 said:

Africa has already been pointed to as the 3rd pandemic centre & with modern air travel opening up in a couple of months this Covid 19 could be with us for years to come.

The wealthy world had their chance to alleviate many of the problems in Africa but chose to ignore it & leave them in squallor. This may come back & bite them where it hurts

LOL. Africa has vast resources and could be rich with half way decent governments. In case you hadn't noticed they became independent decades ago, and the problems they face are down to war, corruption and other reasons I won't mention in public. The newest nation, South Sudan has oil wealth but has devoted more energy to killing each other than building prosperity.

The African problem is tricky on many fronts - in urban townships or rural kraals there is often 6 or more sharing a room; unemployment is roughly 25% (S Africa) and the vast majority have irregular piece work, all now suspended. In SA, alcohol and cigarette sales are banned, as is exercise. Civil disobedience is rife, with shops being looted daily and numerous allegations of army and police brutality. The spread of the virus - and the violence it will bring - is a bomb waiting to explode in Africa.

1 hour ago, RichardColeman said:

If I was a Chinese national in Africa building infrastructure, I'd recommend leaving pretty quickly

Or how to avoid poetic justice.

Covid-19 may spread slower in Africa due to climate, but it will spread. The real issue is due to lack of healthcare we will never know who died of it and who did not.

5 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

Since many there suffer from a recent resurgence of Ebola virus--it begs the question:

If Ebola virus named after the Ebola River in Africa, why didn't WHO name Chinese Corona virus after Wuhan?  Did someone bribe the WHO into naming the virus with a non-locator?

Politics.

 

Quote

"Health officials have faced a similar political tightrope recently, as the coronavirus first identified in the city of Wuhan, China, continues to be a source of growing concern. Mere weeks after it was first discovered and started spreading, it had already amassed an impressive array of sobriquets, such as “Wuhan flu”, “Wuhan coronavirus”, ”coronavirus”, “2019-nCoV”, and the rather long-winded “Wuhan seafood market pneumonia virus”.

 

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200214-coronavirus-swine-flu-and-sars-how-viruses-get-their-names

5 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

Since many there suffer from a recent resurgence of Ebola virus--it begs the question:

If Ebola virus named after the Ebola River in Africa, why didn't WHO name Chinese Corona virus after Wuhan?  Did someone bribe the WHO into naming the virus with a non-locator?

 

3 hours ago, digger70 said:

For sure ,Plus a Bonus.        we  call it the " Wuhan Flu "

 

The virus causing this latest outbreak, covid19, is a member of the family of coronaviruses which were first identified in North Dakota in 1931.

 

So should we call it a variation of North Dakotan flu? 

 

Or simply call it what everyone else is calling it? 

 

I go for the latter. 

31 minutes ago, 7by7 said:

 

 

The virus causing this latest outbreak, covid19, is a member of the family of coronaviruses which were first identified in North Dakota in 1931.

 

So should we call it a variation of North Dakotan flu? 

 

Or simply call it what everyone else is calling it? 

 

I go for the latter. 

The ‘Spanish Flu’ started on a farm in Kansas..

4 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

If I was a Chinese national in Africa building infrastructure, I'd recommend leaving pretty quickly

It may rather be an opportunity for China to increase its soft power in Africa. China has started a massive aid operation in Africa to supply masks, ventilators, doctors, etc... As most Western governments are not even able to meet the needs of their own countries, only China can provide massive aid. It will be a big PR win for China and will further strengthen their influence in Africa.

2 hours ago, 7by7 said:

 

 

The virus causing this latest outbreak, covid19, is a member of the family of coronaviruses which were first identified in North Dakota in 1931.

 

So should we call it a variation of North Dakotan flu? 

 

Or simply call it what everyone else is calling it? 

 

I go for the latter. 

Nah ,Lets stick with the Wuhan Flu that's where it started This time  Most people won't even Know about it's cousin "It" from 1931 . I didn't

2 hours ago, 7by7 said:

The virus causing this latest outbreak, covid19, is a member of the family of coronaviruses which were first identified in North Dakota in 1931.

 

So should we call it a variation of North Dakotan flu? 

Convenient it did not start then in Llanfair­pwllgwyngyll­gogery­chwyrn­drobwll­llan­tysilio­gogo­goch !

4 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

LOL. Africa has vast resources and could be rich with half way decent governments. In case you hadn't noticed they became independent decades ago, and the problems they face are down to war, corruption and other reasons I won't mention in public. The newest nation, South Sudan has oil wealth but has devoted more energy to killing each other than building prosperity.

The worst thing to happen to a developing nation is for natural resources to be discovered. The fat cats from around the world will descend upon it like vultures, disrupt it's development.  and strip it's bones clean. 

2 hours ago, digger70 said:

Nah ,Lets stick with the Wuhan Flu that's where it started This time  Most people won't even Know about it's cousin "It" from 1931 . I didn't

And most people know it as covid19. 

 

As this also shows it to belong to the coronavirus family I cannot see the world changing. 

9 hours ago, sirineou said:

The worst thing to happen to a developing nation is for natural resources to be discovered. The fat cats from around the world will descend upon it like vultures, disrupt it's development.  and strip it's bones clean. 

Agree, but sadly they seem to always find a "freedom fighter" willing to betray their countrymen in exchange for becoming "exceptionally rich".

If Africans die needlessly from Corona it's, IMO, because the money that should have been spent on health care was stolen by the usual suspects.