Covid19 - no need to panic - still

[Jip99]

5 minutes ago, Logosone said:

 

 

What's not to love?

 

 

 

Nothing.............. as long as the 1,580 dead were going to die anyway.

[johnnybangkok]

2 hours ago, rumak said:

ah,  always so easy to dismiss what you don't like.

 

you have a TRUE  figure on how many people may feel this way?

Or is it another "fact"  that you are priveledge to ?

 

How about trying the " everybody knows"  line    lol

 

you know, it is a fact that the brightest people on earth represent a very small percentage.

unfortunately their only access to others is in comment sections , where guys

like you  just laughhhh

 

when you have to throw the "tin foil hat"  comment into your post it becomes obvious that you can not think for yourself.   

There is are a couple of studies knocking around that purport to know the actual percentages of people who belive in conspiracy theories but it isn't a finite art as it is often skewed with some people believing one theory whilst others believe the whole lot. But in the UK about 60% of people believe in at least one conspracy   https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/nov/23/study-shows-60-of-britons-believe-in-conspiracy-theories 

My answer to them all is to show me a significent conspiracy that has been eventually proven as fact. You'll be very hard pressed to quote any major ones but there are a couple of smaller, insignificent ones that you can cling to https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12297024

But since the burden of proof lies with the one saying the fact/theory, in my experience when brought to task their replies have usually been short on proof/evidence/fact and heavy on circumstance/bias/lies. 

[FarFlungFalang]

2 minutes ago, Jip99 said:

 

 

 

Nothing.............. as long as the 1,580 dead were going to die anyway.

I can assure you that they along with the rest of us,including you,were going to die anyway.

[johnnybangkok]

14 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

I'm still waiting to see if C19 global death toll reaches the global yearly flu death toll of 400,000 to see if I've chosen the right argument that C19 is just a flu which I hope to win as that would mean a much lower than feared death toll of C19.

The sounds like a fun game. 

But unless they quarantine everyone every year and rigourously test them for any signs of flu, it's not really the same is it? And the mortality rate isn't dependant on the total number of dead but rather the total number of infected that died. 

[Logosone]

12 minutes ago, Jip99 said:

Nothing.............. as long as the 1,580 dead were going to die anyway.

So of the 1580 deaths:

 

 355 were over 90,

 644 were over 80,

 378 were over 70,

 125 were over 60

 

So 4.9 percent were under 60 years of age. A good two thirds were between 80 and 90.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107913/number-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-sweden-by-age-groups/

Edited April 20, 2020 by Logosone

[johnnybangkok]

16 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Well the first love of my life was Swedish. My grandparents had a summer house in Sweden. I used to go there in winter for skiiing. What's not to love, they're very friendly sensible people.

 

And they're smart.

 

But the point is their chief epidemiologist is taking a courageous stance. He is allowing people to be adults.

 

He is allowing a country to continue to go in the sun. Which a Spanish study shows could be very important, as Vitamain D shows real benefits for Covid19 patients.

 

He is allowing people to be free.

 

What's not to love?

'Well the first love of my life was Swedish. My grandparents had a summer house in Sweden. I used to go there in winter for skiiing. What's not to love, they're very friendly sensible people'.

 

Knew it. You're a Suecophile. 

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=suecophile 

 

[mauGR1]

Just now, Logosone said:

So of the 1580 deaths:

 

 355 were over 90,

 644 were over 80,

 378 were over 70,

 125 were over 60

 

So 4.9 percent were under 60 years of age. A good two thirds were between 80 and 90.

Yet, according to our dear leaders this justifies destroying the life of billions.

[Logosone]

2 minutes ago, johnnybangkok said:

'Well the first love of my life was Swedish. My grandparents had a summer house in Sweden. I used to go there in winter for skiiing. What's not to love, they're very friendly sensible people'.

 

Knew it. You're a Suecophile. 

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=suecophile 

 

Well, let's not go nuts, I'm not crazy about the Swedish language, nor is their food anything to write home about. Definitely not an Ikea fan.

 

Though my first car was a Saab 9-5...And then there was Charlotta with her strawberry blonde hair....

 

Hmmmmmm

Edited April 20, 2020 by Logosone

[johnnybangkok]

12 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

I can assure you that they along with the rest of us,including you,were going to die anyway.

No need to give it a helping hand though eh?

[johnnybangkok]

Just now, Logosone said:

Well, let's not go nuts, I'm not crazy about the Swedish language, nor is there food anything to write home about. Definitely not an Ikea fan.

 

Though my first car was a Saab 9-5...

 

Hmmmmmm

I don't make the evidence, I just report it

 

[Logosone]

4 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

Yet, according to our dear leaders this justifies destroying the life of billions.

Yes, our governments had a fantastic overreaction fit.

 

No doubt caused by too much facebook and social media.

 

But rather than bow in shame and apologise Japanese style for destroying the lives of millions they are getting us, the taxpayers, to fund the destruction they have caused. 

 

Out of incompetence, fair to say, not malice.

 

But still. Our politicians should pay for their incompetence.

Edited April 20, 2020 by Logosone

[mauGR1]

2 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Yes, our governments had a fantastic overreaction fit.

 

No doubt caused by too much facebook and social media.

 

But rather than bow in shame and apologise Japanese style for destroying the lives of millions they are getting us, the taxpayers, to fund the destruction they have caused. 

 

Out of incompetence, fair to say, not malice.

 

But still. Our politicians should pay for their incompetence.

Perhaps it's not only the politicians, i can only guess they are panicking too.

Now the consequences start to become really unpredictable.

[Logosone]

Quite so, all those genius experts should be held to account. Especially Neil Ferguson.

 

[rumak]

49 minutes ago, johnnybangkok said:

But since the burden of proof lies with the one saying the fact/theory, in my experience when brought to task their replies have usually been short on proof/evidence/fact and heavy on circumstance/bias/lies. 

i can not dispute that,  as it is your experience .....which is actually still based on how YOU perceive the information you choose to believe.    Anyway,  this will never get you or me anywhere.    The fact remains that the OP put a lot of time and effort into his post, and the gist

of it I agree with.    A sensible return to opening businesses and letting the able bodied get back to normalcy ( with some precautions )  is a method i favor.   There could be plenty of random testing done IF THE SELF SERVING  governments would stop all the BS and politics and handing money to boost stock mkts ,   and instead quickly set up food distribution areas  AND  deploy all those army and civil servants to administer tests.    Also quickly setting up centers to care for

those infected.   If China can build a city in 2 weeks,  surely if anyone wanted to the same could be done to serve as hospitals.    

All this talk of facts and evidence and the common good and tin foil hats and conspiracy theories.  Give me a break.    Put me in charge of the world.... i will do a better job than bill gates or your governments.     Get er done !!  

Note:  you may believe that only a small percentage of people are dissatisfied with how things are.   I would bet you that when i take over,  and all the govt leaders are on food lines handing out lunches bought with their ill gotten monies,  being scolded for letting their masks slip down,  then you will see the joy on the now silent majority.   ????

Edited April 20, 2020 by rumak

[chessman]

24 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Especially Neil Ferguson.

 

A lot of criticism for this guy. What happened?

[Krataiboy]

 

4 hours ago, johnnybangkok said:

No. His apprehension is shared by a very small but very vocal few who just love a good conspiracy theory (yourself included).

Governments have (on the whole) been caught short and are desperately trying to get out of their own self-inflicted mess with as little loss to human life as possible and if they tempoarily have to 'trash their economies' then that's the price that has to be paid because rightly so, most people believe that human life is more important than money. It is a very unfortunate (and ultimately avoidable) postion they have put themselves in but it will be temporary and we will see the end of it, hopefully sooner rather than later. And as far as civil rights are concerned, is it not my civil right to not catch a disease that could be deadly to me as opposed to your ill conceived right to carry on as normal?  

There will be no 'global normal of perpetual pandemics' (don't be ridiculous), vaccinations should be manditory and any lockdowns, social distancing and the likes should be compulsory if it is for the good of the overall.

Now when we get to 'compulsory tracking apps' and 'digital ID tattoos' (whatever they are) then perhaps you'll have a point but just pull your tinfoil hat a bit lower and hopefully no-one will recognise who you are.  

 

Nothing to lose but your chains. If it's your LIFE you are worried about losing, maybe it will help to know that 98 percent of people who actually become infected with the virus make a full recovery.

 

This should help you get a better sense of perspective. . . 

https://off-guardian.org/2020/04/19/watch-covid19-fatality-rate-in-the-ballpark-of-seasonal-influenza/

 

 

 

Edited April 20, 2020 by Krataiboy

[Krataiboy]

4 hours ago, Logosone said:

It's much worse than that, I fear, rather than there being a grand design behind the madness it really is just one long inglorious chain of errors, miscalculations and outright incompetence, from Neil Ferguson to Boris Johnson to Angela Merkel, to China to Japan's Diamond Princess or South Korea's religious lunatics there is a never ending procession of idiots to choose from.

 

Yes we'll end up with perpetual pandemics, mandatory vaccinations, tracking apps and health certificates to travel for sure, but it's more going to be the result of endless stupidity and incompetence rather than a grand fiendish design.

You underestimate the opposition.

[Logosone]

42 minutes ago, chessman said:

A lot of criticism for this guy. What happened?

Here's what happened. Mr Ferguson published a paper. A model. Based, as he said himself, and knew full well, on incomplete information. In that paper he raised the possibility of 500,000 dead in the UK.

 

What that model basically did was to treat SARS Cov2 like it was a flu pandemic. It was flu pandemic numbers that were fed into the model.

 

Then when it became apparent that SARS Cov2 was not like the flu pandemics of old, that its transmission was different and far faster, Mr Ferguson went back to remodel. He redrafted the paper. As he saw that Italy's ICU units were quickly overwhelmed. And Ferguson knew the UK had little more ICU units than Italy.

 

And guess what. At no point. Not ONCE. Not ONCE in his miserable, highly decorated virus hunting life was MR OBE Neil Ferguson able to anticipate that testing and isolating the infected may have to be fed into this model. Something South Korean and German experts were able to consider. Strange that isn't, it, since Mr Ferguson was such a crack epidemiologist, a highly decorated statistician.

 

Instead Mr Ferguson looked around and saw that China had used "social distancing". His excuse was that the UK had no test kits. And in the absence of any hard evidence, mind you, Mr Ferguson believed that it was in fact social distancing that would be the UK's best bet. Boris Johnson said yes and Amen. And all the other governments of the world copied Mr Ferguson's copying of Chinese methods, that were not evidenced.

 

And here we are, millions of lives destroyed.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/mar/25/coronavirus-exposes-the-problems-and-pitfalls-of-modelling

 

 

 

 

Edited April 20, 2020 by Logosone

[chessman]

3 minutes ago, Logosone said:

And guess what. At no point. Not ONCE. Not ONCE in his miserable, highly decorated virus hunting life was MR OBE Neil Ferguson able to anticipate that testing and isolating the infected may have to be fed into this model. Something South Korean and German experts were able to consider. Strange that isn't, it, since Mr Ferguson was such a crack epidemiologist, a highly decorated statistician.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01003-6
 

I just read this. Interesting. Tries to explain more about the variables involved in the model.

 

about testing it says: 

 

“Widespread testing of the kind seen in South Korea was not considered; but, in part, says Ferguson, this was because Britain’s health agency had told government advisers that it would not be able to scale up testing fast enough”

 

seems odd to me, if you are making models you can also model hypothetical situations. But whether that’s on Ferguson himself or the people commissioning the model, who knows?

 

[CG1 Blue]

51 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Here's what happened. Mr Ferguson published a paper. A model. Based, as he said himself, and knew full well, on incomplete information. In that paper he raised the possibility of 500,000 dead in the UK.

 

What that model basically did was to treat SARS Cov2 like it was a flu pandemic. It was flu pandemic numbers that were fed into the model.

 

Then when it became apparent that SARS Cov2 was not like the flu pandemics of old, that its transmission was different and far faster, Mr Ferguson went back to remodel. He redrafted the paper. As he saw that Italy's ICU units were quickly overwhelmed. And Ferguson knew the UK had little more ICU units than Italy.

 

And guess what. At no point. Not ONCE. Not ONCE in his miserable, highly decorated virus hunting life was MR OBE Neil Ferguson able to anticipate that testing and isolating the infected may have to be fed into this model. Something South Korean and German experts were able to consider. Strange that isn't, it, since Mr Ferguson was such a crack epidemiologist, a highly decorated statistician.

 

Instead Mr Ferguson looked around and saw that China had used "social distancing". His excuse was that the UK had no test kits. And in the absence of any hard evidence, mind you, Mr Ferguson believed that it was in fact social distancing that would be the UK's best bet. Boris Johnson said yes and Amen. And all the other governments of the world copied Mr Ferguson's copying of Chinese methods, that were not evidenced.

 

And here we are, millions of lives destroyed.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/mar/25/coronavirus-exposes-the-problems-and-pitfalls-of-modelling

 

 

 

 

While Ferguson may be an eminent scientist and adviser, the UK government takes advice from many others including Chief Medical Officer Chris Witty, and Chief Scientific Adviser Sir Patrick Vallance. 

 

You say: "And all the other governments of the world copied Mr Ferguson's copying of Chinese methods". 

 

Each country have their own experts and advisers in this field, and each country is taking different measures. To suggest that all the governments in the world are following one scientist from the UK is just delusional. 

 

Did he do something to offend you in your past? Or maybe you have a grudge against Oxford? ????

Edited April 20, 2020 by CG1 Blue

[johnnybangkok]

58 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Here's what happened. Mr Ferguson published a paper. A model. Based, as he said himself, and knew full well, on incomplete information. In that paper he raised the possibility of 500,000 dead in the UK.

 

What that model basically did was to treat SARS Cov2 like it was a flu pandemic. It was flu pandemic numbers that were fed into the model.

 

Then when it became apparent that SARS Cov2 was not like the flu pandemics of old, that its transmission was different and far faster, Mr Ferguson went back to remodel. He redrafted the paper. As he saw that Italy's ICU units were quickly overwhelmed. And Ferguson knew the UK had little more ICU units than Italy.

 

And guess what. At no point. Not ONCE. Not ONCE in his miserable, highly decorated virus hunting life was MR OBE Neil Ferguson able to anticipate that testing and isolating the infected may have to be fed into this model. Something South Korean and German experts were able to consider. Strange that isn't, it, since Mr Ferguson was such a crack epidemiologist, a highly decorated statistician.

 

Instead Mr Ferguson looked around and saw that China had used "social distancing". His excuse was that the UK had no test kits. And in the absence of any hard evidence, mind you, Mr Ferguson believed that it was in fact social distancing that would be the UK's best bet. Boris Johnson said yes and Amen. And all the other governments of the world copied Mr Ferguson's copying of Chinese methods, that were not evidenced.

 

And here we are, millions of lives destroyed.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/mar/25/coronavirus-exposes-the-problems-and-pitfalls-of-modelling

 

 

 

 

'His excuse was that the UK had no test kits'. 

It wasn't an excuse. They didn't and still don't. You've even confirmed this yourself.

And that's what rightly shaped UK policy regarding Covid.

You keep missing this point. If the UK had another option it would have taken it. They didn't so they had a choice of two evils; self-isolation or mass death. They choose the lesser.

[Logosone]

21 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

While Ferguson may be an eminent scientist and adviser, the UK government takes advice from many others including Chief Medical Officer Chris Witty, and Chief Scientific Adviser Sir Patrick Vallance. 

 

You say: "And all the other governments of the world copied Mr Ferguson's copying of Chinese methods". 

 

Each country have their own experts and advisers in this field, and each country is taking different measures. To suggest that all the governments in the world are following one scientist from the UK is just delusional. 

 

Did he do something to offend you in your past? Or maybe you have a grudge against Oxford? ????

I actually have very fond memories of Oxford.

 

Neil Ferguson stands more for Imperial College now.

 

Look, it's no secret that it was the Imperial College paper from Neil Ferguson that formed the basis for the policies Boris Johnson and Co adopted. Yes, there's Patrick Vallance. Have you seen his CV? A fine doctor, but epidemiology is not exactly his speciality, is it? That's where Chris Whitty comes in. And they both say they get their models from other sources, they no doubt have other info. But Ferguson at Imperial College was considered the crack. He was the statistician from the much vaunted Imperial College team. He was decorated for his work on previous pandemics and he was God. Imperial College was considered the pantheon for this work.

 

Neil Ferguson himself said the reason why he adopted social distancing was because he saw it was used in China, and they had a reduction in transmission. That was it. No real studies. No real evidence, no hard data. It never occurred to Ferguson that testing and isolating the infected was also done on a large scale in China, and just maybe that was what caused the remission, rather than road blocks and sitting at home.

 

Yes, each country has its own experts, and the UK has other advisers. But nobody has the reputation that Ferguson had, no other school apart from Imperial College was considered the top of the field the way they were. If Imperial College's team said X, then X is done. And don't think for a second the top people in other countries are not aware of Imperial College and Neil Ferguson. Do you think it is a mere accident that literally ALL the social distancing rules in every country look exactly the same? They copy.

 

If you think that Neil Ferguson is not the main person responsible for these policies across the world then you're delusional. The governments don't all follow Ferguson, but they follow their own scientists, usually, and usually those scientists will be very aware what Imperial College is doing in modelling.

 

 

Edited April 20, 2020 by Logosone

[Logosone]

19 minutes ago, johnnybangkok said:

'His excuse was that the UK had no test kits'. 

It wasn't an excuse. They didn't and still don't. You've even confirmed this yourself.

And that's what rightly shaped UK policy regarding Covid.

You keep missing this point. If the UK had another option it would have taken it. They didn't so they had a choice of two evils; self-isolation or mass death. They choose the lesser.

You don't get it.

 

He should have factored testing and isolating the infected in the modelling. 

 

Germany had no test kits. South Korea had no test kits. Only when the genome was published did private companies start producing them. The UK has some of the world's leading pharmaceutical companies, a tradition of excellence in medical research, world class labs and universities. And you're telling me the UK could not have produced test kits like South Korea and German companies did?

 

The UK top people took a purposeful decision. The rejected the companies doing test kits, because, like the CDC in the US, they believed that only the best of the best test kits would be good enough. And they did not allow companies that were offering to do test kits to do so. Just like the CDC in the US.

 

The UK could have done testing. They could have produced test kits. If Germany and South Korean could, then the UK could have. Just like they ramped up their 5000 ICU beds, they could have addressed the testing issue and produced test kits.

 

The UK's top people made a mistake. It's not that they didn't have a choice. They very much did. They could have gotten private companies to produce test kits, they could have adopted a testing policy. And in fact later they did, so if they can test the same as Germany did in the beginning now, 50,000 a week, how come testing does not factor in the decision making.

 

Ferguson is hiding behind a strawman argument. He got it wrong. But rather than admit it, he pretends he had no other choice. 

 

 

Edited April 20, 2020 by Logosone

[CG1 Blue]

22 minutes ago, Logosone said:

I actually have very fond memories of Oxford.

 

Neil Ferguson stands more for Imperial College now.

 

Look, it's no secret that it was the Imperial College paper from Neil Ferguson that formed the basis for the policies Boris Johnson and Co adopted. Yes, there's Patrick Vallance. Have you seen his CV? A fine doctor, but epidemiology is not exactly his speciality, is it? That's where Chris Whitty comes in. And they both say they get their models from other sources, they no doubt have other info. But Ferguson at Imperial College was considered the crack. He was the statistician from the much vaunted Imperial College team. He was decorated for his work on previous pandemics and he was God. Imperial College was considered the pantheon for this work.

 

Neil Ferguson himself said the reason why he adopted social distancing was because he saw it was used in China, and they had a reduction in transmission. That was it. No real studies. No real evidence, no hard data. It never occurred to Ferguson that testing and isolating the infected was also done on a large scale in China, and just maybe that was what caused the remission, rather than road blocks and sitting at home.

 

Yes, each country has its own experts, and the UK has other advisers. But nobody has the reputation that Ferguson had, no other school apart from Imperial College was considered the top of the field the way they were. If Imperial College's team said X, then X is done. And don't think for a second the top people in other countries are not aware of Imperial College and Neil Ferguson. Do you think it is a mere accident that literally ALL the social distancing rules in every country look exactly the same? They copy.

 

If you think that Neil Ferguson is not the main person responsible for these policies across the world then you're delusional. The governments don't all follow Ferguson, but they follow their own scientists, usually, and usually those scientists will be very aware what Imperial College is doing in modelling.

 

 

Ludicrous, and bereft of any evidence. Show me proof that Italy or Spain's social distancing rules are a result of Neil Ferguson's advice.

This is just you attempting to tarnish the UK as usual. 

[CG1 Blue]

22 minutes ago, Logosone said:

You don't get it.

 

He should have factored testing and isolating the infected in the modelling. 

 

Germany had no test kits. South Korea had no test kits. Only when the genome was published did private companies start producing them. The UK has some of the world's leading pharmaceutical companies, a tradition of excellence in medical research, world class labs and universities. And you're telling me the UK could not have produced test kits like South Korea and German companies did?

 

The UK top people took a purposeful decision. The rejected the companies doing test kits, because, like the CDC in the US, they believed that only the best of the best test kits would be good enough. And they did not allow companies that were offering to do test kits to do so. Just like the CDC in the US.

 

The UK could have done testing. They could have produced test kits. If Germany and South Korean could, then the UK could have. Just like they ramped up their 5000 ICU beds, they could have addressed the testing issue and produced test kits.

 

The UK's top people made a mistake. It's not that they didn't have a choice. They very much did. They could have gotten private companies to produce test kits, they could have adopted a testing policy. And in fact later they did, so if they can test the same as Germany did in the beginning now, 50,000 a week, how come testing does not factor in the decision making.

 

Ferguson is hiding behind a strawman argument. He got it wrong. But rather than admit it, he pretends he had no other choice. 

 

 

Incorrect. Germany had a much stronger starting point regarding testing. They had huge global diagnostic and genetics companies like Roche and Qiagen to call on. The UK is playing catch up. 

 

The UK’s health secretary said his German counterpart could call on 100 test labs and rely on the heavy presence of Roche, one of the world’s largest diagnostics companies, to achieve its current level of more than 50,000 tests a day. The UK had had to build from a lower base, he said.

Industry players say this is a fair characterisation. “We have a lot of diagnostics capability in this country but what we don’t have is the global diagnostics giants,” said Tony Cooke of Cambridge Clinical Laboratories. “Even when we have our own companies, a lot of the supplies are coming from the US or Germany.”

 

The UK is not alone in struggling to meet demand. France has carried out even fewer tests than the UK, and Spain tried to bridge supply chain issues by buying millions of test kits from China that later had to be withdrawn after giving flawed results.

 

As well as Roche, which has developed a single machine that can churn out 1,000 test results a day, Germany also has Qiagen, a major supplier of genetic testing kits, which are being used to diagnose Covid-19. Both companies also produce reagents and components used in kits put together by other manufacturers. 

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/apr/03/why-has-the-uk-lagged-behind-in-testing-for-the-coronavirus

 

 

[Logosone]

1 hour ago, chessman said:

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01003-6
 

I just read this. Interesting. Tries to explain more about the variables involved in the model.

 

about testing it says: 

 

“Widespread testing of the kind seen in South Korea was not considered; but, in part, says Ferguson, this was because Britain’s health agency had told government advisers that it would not be able to scale up testing fast enough”

 

seems odd to me, if you are making models you can also model hypothetical situations. But whether that’s on Ferguson himself or the people commissioning the model, who knows?

 

It's in that Nature article, isn't it?

 

"Widespread testing of the kind seen in South Korea was not considered; but, in part, says Ferguson, this was because Britain’s health agency had told government advisers that it would not be able to scale up testing fast enough."

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01003-6

 

So Ferguson just took it from Britain's health agency. Not enough testing kits available. So the same mistake as the CDC in the US, we won't talk to private companies. Do you not think that with all his experience the crack epidemiologist in the UK, who worked on previous flu pandemics, should have been aware that there are private companies that produce test kits? He could not advise the UK government that, like in Germany and South Korea, the UK could use its private companies, rather than the British health agency, to produce test kits?

 

The UK's scientific advisors, and Ferguson in particular made that mistake.

[Logosone]

20 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

Ludicrous, and bereft of any evidence. Show me proof that Italy or Spain's social distancing rules are a result of Neil Ferguson's advice.

This is just you attempting to tarnish the UK as usual. 

What is ludicrous is to believe that top scientific advisors in other countries are not aware of what Imperial College and Neil Ferguson are saying, especially since Ferguson made sure that his paper was widely circulated, including to the US.

 

Again, Imperial College is considered the world authority on modelling for infectious diseases. Neither Spain nor Italy have institutions of similar calibre with the same reputations, and Italian and Spanish scientists would be well aware of this. Neither Spain nor Italy could produce modelling like Imperial Collge. They would however rely on such modelling.

Edited April 20, 2020 by Logosone

[Logosone]

21 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

Incorrect. Germany had a much stronger starting point regarding testing. They had huge global diagnostic and genetics companies like Roche and Qiagen to call on. The UK is playing catch up. 

 

The UK’s health secretary said his German counterpart could call on 100 test labs and rely on the heavy presence of Roche, one of the world’s largest diagnostics companies, to achieve its current level of more than 50,000 tests a day. The UK had had to build from a lower base, he said.

Industry players say this is a fair characterisation. “We have a lot of diagnostics capability in this country but what we don’t have is the global diagnostics giants,” said Tony Cooke of Cambridge Clinical Laboratories. “Even when we have our own companies, a lot of the supplies are coming from the US or Germany.”

 

The UK is not alone in struggling to meet demand. France has carried out even fewer tests than the UK, and Spain tried to bridge supply chain issues by buying millions of test kits from China that later had to be withdrawn after giving flawed results.

 

As well as Roche, which has developed a single machine that can churn out 1,000 test results a day, Germany also has Qiagen, a major supplier of genetic testing kits, which are being used to diagnose Covid-19. Both companies also produce reagents and components used in kits put together by other manufacturers. 

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/apr/03/why-has-the-uk-lagged-behind-in-testing-for-the-coronavirus

 

 

Oh please, you can't believe a word that comes out of Matthew Hancock's mouth, the man is not fit to run a Kindergarden, let alone a health ministry.

 

I've never read such pathetic and transparent excuses.

 

A single, small German biotech company TIB Molbiol Syntheselabor GmbH, produced 1.4 million test kits in 4 weeks. Let that sink in. One. Point. Four. Million. In four weeks.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-german-tests-develop-private-pharma-company-cdc-a9406956.html

 

Without Roche. Without Qiagen. Just one small German biotech company. And the UK has many such biotech companies. 

 

Of course the UK could have produced test kits like Germany, just like South Korea.

 

So what is South Korea's excuse then, for having test kits without Roche or Qiagen?

 

Please. the UK could have produced test kits. It just failed to do so. But no wonder the excuse factory is running more successfully than the test kit factories in the UK, if I were Matthew Hancock I'd also be looking for the best excuses right now.

Edited April 20, 2020 by Logosone

[CG1 Blue]

32 minutes ago, Logosone said:

What is ludicrous is to believe that top scientific advisors in other countries are not aware of what Imperial College and Neil Ferguson are saying, especially since Ferguson made sure that his paper was widely circulated, including to the US.

 

Again, Imperial College is considered the world authority on modelling for infectious diseases. Neither Spain nor Italy have institutions of similar calibre with the same reputations, and Italian and Spanish scientists would be well aware of this. Neither Spain nor Italy could produce modelling like Imperial Collge. They would however rely on such modelling.

So, no proof, just your opinion.  As I thought. 

[CG1 Blue]

30 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Oh please, you can't believe a word that comes out of Matthew Hancock's mouth, the man is not fit to run a Kindergarden, let alone a health ministry.

 

I've never read such pathetic and transparent excuses.

 

A single, small German biotech company TIB Molbiol Syntheselabor GmbH, produced 1.4 million test kits in 4 weeks. Let that sink in. One. Point. Four. Million. In four weeks.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-german-tests-develop-private-pharma-company-cdc-a9406956.html

 

Without Roche. Without Qiagen. Just one small German biotech company. And the UK has many such biotech companies. 

 

Of course the UK could have produced test kits like Germany, just like South Korea.

 

So what is South Korea's excuse then, for having test kits without Roche or Qiagen?

 

Please. the UK could have produced test kits. It just failed to do so. But no wonder the excuse factory is running more successfully than the test kit factories in the UK, if I were Matthew Hancock I'd also be looking for the best excuses right now.

The quote in my post was from Tony Cooke of Cambridge Clinical Laboratories, not Hancock. 

 

And from your Independent article: "Though it has just 55 employees globally, TIB had experience in developing tests for Sars and the swine flu." 

 

Lucky for them they had that experience. Maybe be thankful for that rather than use it to criticise other countries' capabilities.