Mystery of India's lower death rates seems to defy coronavirus trend

[snoop1130]

Mystery of India's lower death rates seems to defy coronavirus trend

By Alexandra Ulmer, Sumit Khanna

 

FILE PHOTO: A man rides past a line of cycles erected across a road, as a blockade, during a nationwide lockdown to slow the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in Mumbai, India, April 7, 2020. REUTERS/Prashant Waydande

 

MUMBAI/AHMEDABAD, India (Reuters) - Parts of India have recorded dramatic falls in mortality rates after a nationwide lockdown was imposed to fight the new coronavirus, suggesting there has not been an undetected surge in virus-related deaths.

 

All over the world, mortality rates are being scrutinised to determine the true impact of the coronavirus, which emerged in China late last year and is known to have infected more than 2.7 million people globally, with nearly 190,000 deaths.

 

While death rates in some countries have risen sharply in recent weeks, in India the opposite seems to be happening, at least in some places, leaving hospitals, funeral parlours and cremation sites wondering what is going on.

 

“It’s very surprising for us,” said Shruthi Reddy, chief executive officer of Anthyesti Funeral Services, which operates in the eastern city of Kolkata and the southern tech hub of Bengaluru.

 

The company handled about five jobs a day in January but has only had about three a day this month.

 

“We’ve declared employee pay cuts if revenue falls below a threshold,” Reddy said.

 

Other numbers tell a similar story.

 

Central Mumbai, home to some 12 million people, saw deaths fall by about 21% in March compared with the same month of 2019, according to municipal data.

 

Overall deaths plummeted 67% in Ahmedabad, the biggest city in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state of Gujarat, over the same period.

 

Data from at least two other cities, along with accounts from state health officials, show a similar pattern. Half a dozen funeral businesses and crematoriums also reported slumps in business, especially in April.

 

“If we’re not seeing an increase in deaths, the suspicion that there may be more COVID-19 fatalities out there is not true,” said Giridhar Babu, professor of epidemiology at the Public Health Foundation of India.

 

FEWER ACCIDENTS

 

Modi imposed a lockdown of India’s 1.3 billion people on March 25 in a bid to stop the spread of the coronavirus, which has infected some 23,077 people, killing 718 of them, according to the latest figures.

 

India has tested about 525,000 people, meaning some 4% were positive. In the United Sates, about 18% of tests are positive, according to the COVID Tracking project.

 

India’s apparently lower death rates stands in contrast to what has been seen elsewhere.

 

The Netherlands recorded about 2,000 more deaths than normal in the first week of April, for example, while in Indonesia’s capital of Jakarta the number of funerals rose sharply in March.

Some towns in Italy also saw a jump in recorded deaths.

 

Indian doctors, officials and crematorium employees suspect the lower death rate is in large part attributable to fewer road and rail accidents.

 

“Road accident cases, and even patients with alcohol or drug abuse, stroke and heart attacks have been coming in fewer numbers,” said Dr Himanta Biswa Sarma, health minister for the northeastern state of Assam.

 

Accidents on India’s chaotic roads killed more than 151,400 people in 2018, according to official data, the world’s highest absolute number.

 

The coronavirus lockdown, which is due to end on May 3, will cut road deaths by at least 15% this year compared with 2018, Paresh Kumar Goel, a director at the Ministry of Road Transport & Highways, said.

 

With passenger trains halted, fatalities from all-too-common rail accidents have also plunged. In Mumbai alone, for example, more than half a dozen people typically die every day on the rail network.

 

FEWER MURDERS TOO?

 

Neeraj Kumar, who is in charge of a crematorium on the banks of the holy Ganges river in Uttar Pradesh state, said victims of crime were also not being brought in.

 

“We used to get at least 10 accident-related bodies every day and many related to murder cases. But after the lockdown we’re only receiving natural death cases,” Kumar said.

 

The site used to perform up to 30 cremations a day but in the month since March 22, only 43 people had been cremated, Kumar said after leafing through the crematorium’s record book.

 

But the lower rates might also reflect difficulties in reporting deaths during the lockdown, officials said.

 

“There could be an increase when the lockdown ends,” said Dr Bhavin Joshi, a senior health department official with the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation.

 

Requests for India-wide data from the national registrar went unanswered, while an official at the New Delhi Municipal Council said they could not provide numbers.

 

Reuters was also unable to obtain data for the state of West Bengal, where some doctors have accused the government of understating coronavirus deaths.

 

Only a state-appointed committee is allowed to declare that a patient has died from the virus.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-04-24

 

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[Phuketshrew]

Gotta love the blockade of bikes - yep, that'll stop 'em! Surprised no one's half inched them by now.

[stevenl]

I don't trust these numbers, but it does look like western countries are being hit harder than Asian countries.

[spiekerjozef]

NOT using deodorant is the key factor then.

[scubascuba3]

Less accidents is the same everywhere, as is people avoiding hospitals with other illnesses like stroke. Why less covid spread is a mystery like Thailand

[wombat]

once you have drunk water from the Ganges and survived my guess is your immune to pretty much everything

 

[fvw53]

45 minutes ago, wombat said:

once you have drunk water from the Ganges and survived my guess is your immune to pretty much everything

 

.....still better is drinking cow urine 

[tifino]

ourworldindata.org has the following chart WEF 24apr20

 

India is not as Low as they say...

[bendejo]

Finger on the scale, perhaps?

 

 

[PETERTHEEATER]

42 minutes ago, fvw53 said:

.....still better is drinking cow urine 

Are you taking the pi**?

[thaibeachlovers]

2 hours ago, stevenl said:

I don't trust these numbers, but it does look like western countries are being hit harder than Asian countries.

Which tends to support my contention of diet being a factor. How many obese elderly Indians are there compared to western countries, and how many eat bad western style food loaded with chemicals, fat and sugar?

As I've said in other threads, if Corona kills mainly old people and as old people in Asian countries are probably eating traditional food, diet is possibly a factor.

Also, if India is hot and humid as opposed to hot and dry, that's very likely to be a significant factor.

[thaibeachlovers]

1 hour ago, fvw53 said:

.....still better is drinking cow urine 

Urine is sterile, so how is that going to give immunity?

[stevenl]

7 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Which tends to support my contention of diet being a factor. How many obese elderly Indians are there compared to western countries, and how many eat bad western style food loaded with chemicals, fat and sugar?

As I've said in other threads, if Corona kills mainly old people and as old people in Asian countries are probably eating traditional food, diet is possibly a factor.

Also, if India is hot and humid as opposed to hot and dry, that's very likely to be a significant factor.

Also in 18-19 China's death rate was significantly lower than that in western countries.

[CanadaSam]

Indian's diet is chock full of anti-bacterials, anti-virus, etc., they use spices to kill off all types of parasites, including generous amounts of turmeric etc. I don't doubt the lower mortality rates being attributable to diet.

[JAG]

Two factors may apply.

 

A more robust immune system due to diet and the much commented upon lack of sanitary arrangements ( a high percentage - perhaps 50% + - do not have access to a toilet) coupled with minimal use of air conditioning?

 

I don't know whether they ingest disinfectant or insert UV light in various orifices as a matter of course in India. 

[digger70]

3 hours ago, spiekerjozef said:

NOT using deodorant is the key factor then.

Must be the India diet. ????

[robblok]

It just shows that the west with their hygiene obsession has created a population of weaklings.  Maybe those English soap dodgers got it right.. though the UK is hard hit too ????

 

I really do start to think that we in the west lost a lot of our natural defenses by being to hygienic. 

[stevenl]

18 minutes ago, robblok said:

It just shows that the west with their hygiene obsession has created a population of weaklings.  Maybe those English soap dodgers got it right.. though the UK is hard hit too ????

 

I really do start to think that we in the west lost a lot of our natural defenses by being to hygienic. 

"I really do start to think that we in the west lost a lot of our natural defenses by being to hygienic."

 

I have been saying that for quite some time already. I do think though this applies more to young than old people, which doesn't correlate with the death statistics.

Edited April 25, 2020 by stevenl

[yellowboat]

1 hour ago, stevenl said:

Also in 18-19 China's death rate was significantly lower than that in western countries.

Vietnam and Cambodia was low too.  Vietnam now allows seating at restaurants, bars and coffee houses.  Alcohol was never banned.  Think it has to do with their immune systems and the lack of obesity.     

[mlmcleod]

It's amazing how low the death rate can be when no testing is done!

[Relocated]

It is Darwin's adaptation. Only who fit to all kinds of virus and germs have survived in those countries. I was scared to eat anything in Vietnam two years ago and survived with cookies and snacks for two weeks. 

Edited April 25, 2020 by Retarded

[Neeranam]

3 hours ago, wombat said:

once you have drunk water from the Ganges and survived my guess is your immune to pretty much everything

 

I've bathed in the Ganges  -  it has miraculous healing properties. 

[sanuk711]

50 minutes ago, robblok said:

Maybe those English soap dodgers got it right..

Your may start something there......????

 

When I first went to Oz in the early 60s, & a lot of the POMs arriving were still on the 1 bath a week routine ---if you needed it or not.

 

The standing joke was always---Q/-where does a POM hide his money- A/-under the soap

[Anant72]

Herd immunity at work perhaps?

[chobina]

Mystery of Thailand’s lower death rates seems to defy coronavirus trend.

[puipuitom]

I think several reasons:

a) When your bady had to fight so many bacteria, virusses, with close-to-zero help, only the strongest stay alive and can fight the newcomber Corona, easy.

b) the word: "confirmed" might say a lot.

c) According a Dutch investigation there seems to be a correlation with high temperature, but especially high air humidity. This might explain the low corona activity over all S + SE Asia.

[sanuk711]

3 hours ago, car720 said:

Well, they're a weird mob.

Which tribe..................????

[thaibeachlovers]

11 hours ago, car720 said:

High in ammonia.

Not till it's fermented. Some do drink their own urine because it's regarded as having curative properties.

[thaibeachlovers]

15 hours ago, mlmcleod said:

It's amazing how low the death rate can be when no testing is done!

That doesn't make sense. The death rate doesn't change because of testing. It is what it is.

All testing does is confirm if a sick person has Corona or not and tell statisticians how many were infected of the people randomly tested so they can guess how many others are as well.

[torturedsole]

Chicken biriyani has amazing medicinal properties.  I'd eat two portions right now.